NFL Week 11 props

[Valuist]

Looking at AJ Dillon. He already had been on a partial timeshare with Aaron Jones. Typically, Jones' rush props for yards were in the low to mid 60s and Dilllon around 40. Now with Jones out, no timeshare for Dillon. I'm curious to see his rush yard number, as I expect 20 plus carries. They can't just use Jones' previous numbers; the falloff from Jones to Dillon much smaller than Dillon to his backup.

Also looking at Justin Herbert's passing yards. He's been going well under his prop numbers recently. and if he's lined anywhere near 290 yards, that's an easy under IMO.

Cole "Rock Radio" Kmet. Robinson doubtful, and Mooney a game time decision. Fields threw to him quite a bit in the game at Pittsburgh. Kmet's weekly yardage props have been between 26-30. I expect them to bump him up to the neighborhood of 40-45 yards.

 

[FairWarning]

Look at D Freeman props also against his old Texans team,

 

[FairWarning]

IDK about Kmet, but I loved WMET 95 1/2 FM Chicago back in the day.

 

[Valuist]

Look at D Freeman props also against his old Texans team,

Do you mean Foreman?

I wonder if he's a relative of Chuck Foreman, the old Viking RB.

 

[John Kelly]

WINKY reappeared last night to post the following prop in EOG's Best Bet thread:

NFL: D'Onta Foreman Week 11 Rushing leader 100-1

 

[Valuist]

WINKY reappeared last night to post the following prop in EOG's Best Bet thread:

NFL: D'Onta Foreman Week 11 Rushing leader 100-1

Why not? Houston the second worst run D in the NFL. The worst? And its not even close; the Chargers. They are nearly 20 yds/game worse than the Texans. Najee Harris should have a big day.

 

[John Kelly]

I'll root home WINKY.

 

[Valuist]

YTD stats can throw one off. Have to look at game logs. The Eagles have played 10 games; Hurts has seen a huge change in his role:

first 5 games: 36.4 pass attempts/game and 273 pass yards
last 5 games: 22.8 pass attempts/game and 159 pass yards

Maybe taking the ball out of Hurts' hands is why the wise guys bet Philly in recent weeks.

 

[FairWarning]

Do you mean Foreman?

I wonder if he's a relative of Chuck Foreman, the old Viking RB.

Yes, Foreman.

Nice number for Winky, its 34/1 on FD. Wanted to play Foreman and J Wilson for most yards.

 

[Valuist]

Yes, Foreman.

Nice number for Winky, its 34/1 on FD. Wanted to play Foreman and J Wilson for most yards.

Some Niners props are intriguing. Short week, and everyone saw the game plan vs the Rams (run, run, and run again). I wouldn't be surprised if Shanahan mixes it up, and Jimmy G has a lot more dropbacks. The Niners are a heavy public side this week and the value appears to be on the Jags.

 

[Valuist]

You take an partially injured Mayfield, plus Tim Boyle on the other side. Add in double digit winds and possibility of rain, I don't see many 5 step drop backs in the Detroit/Cleve game. I know Garrett is great but the Lions never get to QB. Going under 5 1/2 sacks (-135 Heritage).

 

[Valuist]

At one establishment, the takeback on longest FG under 46 1/2 yards was +684. We will see if they void the bet. With thousands out there, who knows?

Ended up betting it again at +665.

 

[Valuist]

At one establishment, the takeback on longest FG under 46 1/2 yards was +684. We will see if they void the bet. With thousands out there, who knows?

Ended up betting it again at +665.

The game was Houston at Tennessee and the book was Heritage. 3 FG by Fairburn but none over 46.5 yards. Heritage did pay off the bet.