NHL 2021 Season

Superbook has Avs -175/VGK +155 right now. I'm going to bet the Avs to win it quickly, looking for a nice price on a 5 game win.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
I got Islanders +200 to win series with William Hill. This price is crazy, total slugfest coming and I think at best Bruins are a 60/40 favorite.

That price seems too high on the Bruins some of it based on the Isles winning 1st 5 meetings this year but after the Hall acquisition the Bruins won the next 3 after the trade. Loss of Anders Lee definitely hurt more than I anticipated, PP just doesn't appear to be the same without him and if they can't produce against the Bruins they are in trouble. Have to remember the Isles took Tampa Bay last year to a game 7 to see who goes to the Cup.
 
Lightning at -125 seems like a very good price to me. Not taking anything away from the Canes because I love their game and system, and what a great job of building a deep team. But Tampa has just been laying in the weeds wanting to get through this regular season, I think they have a very different level they will get to this series. I think they brought out the best of a quality Florida team and will get the same here, but having them just above pick em seems too good to pass.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Pinnacle has Avs -196, Golden Showers + 173

Avs -1.5 games -105, GS +1.5 -111

Avs 4 games to 1, +320
Avs 4 games to 0, +667
Vegas 4 games to 0, +2525

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/hockey/nhl/matchups

Nice to see what I call them rubbed off on someone else!

Avs -1.5 -105 for Series looks nice

Tonight gimme: Leaves in Reg -105, -1.5 +150ish and -2.5 +280ish

I expect Les Habs to struggle to score. And in games where one team loses and is eliminated, the goalie gets pulled earlier and even down 2 gets pulled. Think that might come into play here
 
I think you finally see the Leafs play a focused game paying attention to the details tonight. I think when you are tired and been through the war its easy to get players to get down to the basics and play a cleaner game. None of the dumb nonsense that cost them goals in the last couple of games. With the Habs in desperation mode I don't mind laying 1.5 and getting +135, I think this could look a lot like the VGK-Min game 7 with the better team eventually overwhelming the dog.

I'm also on NYI +1 +110. Really tempted by the +1.5 here, but don't want to lay the big price. I think you get an Isles surge early and then they'll hunker down into their normal style if they can get a lead.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Enjoy game 7 gang, should be a decent one, if the Canadians survive the 1st period+ they should be live, Puck Drop in 10 mins
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Price on fire. Toronto had so many opportunities to shut the door in OT on Saturday but could not.
I bet them live +920 right after Montreal scored their 2nd goal halfway thru the 3rd. They dominated that overtime and Dermitt coughed up that puck. What a sinking feeling that was.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Somewhere Mike Babcock is smiling.

In the NBCSN studios. Then again if you looked across the studio set and saw Kathryn Tappen (I call her: Tappen Kathryn because I am like almost everyone else and that is what I wanna do to her) - you'd be smiling, too
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
In the NBCSN studios. Then again if you looked across the studio set and saw Kathryn Tappen (I call her: Tappen Kathryn because I am like almost everyone else and that is what I wanna do to her) - you'd be smiling, too
Her and Jackie from The NHL Network. I think Roger Ailes came back from the dead and is doing the hiring as he did at Fox News there. :)
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Her and Jackie from The NHL Network. I think Roger Ailes came back from the dead and is doing the hiring as he did at Fox News there. :)

Lauren Gardner of NHL/MLBN does NOTHING for me. She wears more makeup than Tammy Faye Bakker and something about her just turns me off to her. Heidi Watney and Lauren SheHOTTIE.........o_O
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Montreal fortunate Weber, Gallagher and Price all came back for the Leafs series after missing time and all performed well. Leafs 0-7 now in clinching game series last several years, yikes!
 
MGM just daring us to bet the Jets in game 1 with a -115 price, everyone else at -125 or higher. I think this is a great spot for Winnipeg as they are healthy and rested, while Canadiens come down off the crazy emotional high of beating the Leafs. In general I think the Canadiens don't have enough scoring depth to win more than one series and if the Jets don't give away goals and opportunities like the Leafs did this could be a comfortable win for them.
 
MGM just daring us to bet the Jets in game 1 with a -115 price, everyone else at -125 or higher. I think this is a great spot for Winnipeg as they are healthy and rested, while Canadiens come down off the crazy emotional high of beating the Leafs. In general I think the Canadiens don't have enough scoring depth to win more than one series and if the Jets don't give away goals and opportunities like the Leafs did this could be a comfortable win for them.

Up to -135 now, glad I spotted that one early. Still some -120s out there elsewhere. I'm wondering how much of this is recency bias since we haven't seen the Jets in a long time but lots of people were watching the Canadiens comeback?
 
That was a vicious hit. How many games will it cost him?

Probably a couple. If Evans got up after it might not be any. He's trying to make a hockey play until the last split second when Evans gets the shot off. He's truly trying to prevent a goal so he had to go hard, but that's one of those you take a chance going that hard you won't be able to control yourself and you take your consequences. A lot different than guys like Wilson or Reaves gooning it up and doing dirty shit and acting like they didn't do anything.
 
Be interested to hear what others think on this one. DraftKings offerings Isles +300 to score first and win. Seems like if you like the Isles at around +130, betting this instead is a no brainer on value. Sure they could come back and win, but just feels like the correlation between scoring first and winning is so strong that the extra odds are well worth it. Thoughts?
 
Be interested to hear what others think on this one. DraftKings offerings Isles +300 to score first and win. Seems like if you like the Isles at around +130, betting this instead is a no brainer on value. Sure they could come back and win, but just feels like the correlation between scoring first and winning is so strong that the extra odds are well worth it. Thoughts?

If the odds on NYI scoring first is +120 & -160 to win the game after they go up 1-0, then the odds of them doing both is +257.5 according to the url below. So +300 would be value.

If the odds of winning the game up 1-0 are reduced to -120, then the odds of doing both is about +300.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/
 
If the odds on NYI scoring first is +120 & -160 to win the game after they go up 1-0, then the odds of them doing both is +257.5 according to the url below. So +300 would be value.

If the odds of winning the game up 1-0 are reduced to -120, then the odds of doing both is about +300.

https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculator/

Hard to say what those odds should be, but yeah I put it through the calculator already. Here's the thing, they are +110 to score first at my best out and +140 now for the game. So that parlay is worth 4-1, but of course no one is going to let you parlay that due to correlation. So just trying to figure out what the correlation is worth. My sense is in a playoff game a team up 1-0, even if they are a dog, should be over -150 favorites at that point since there are generally no huge pregame favorites and the games generally are lower scoring. But with the line now drifting up to +140 I probably will just look to back the Isles to win and avoid worrying about them scoring first.
 

pro analyser

EOG Veteran
Hard to say what those odds should be, but yeah I put it through the calculator already. Here's the thing, they are +110 to score first at my best out and +140 now for the game. So that parlay is worth 4-1, but of course no one is going to let you parlay that due to correlation. So just trying to figure out what the correlation is worth. My sense is in a playoff game a team up 1-0, even if they are a dog, should be over -150 favorites at that point since there are generally no huge pregame favorites and the games generally are lower scoring. But with the line now drifting up to +140 I probably will just look to back the Isles to win and avoid worrying about them scoring first.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Probably a couple. If Evans got up after it might not be any. He's trying to make a hockey play until the last split second when Evans gets the shot off. He's truly trying to prevent a goal so he had to go hard, but that's one of those you take a chance going that hard you won't be able to control yourself and you take your consequences. A lot different than guys like Wilson or Reaves gooning it up and doing dirty shit and acting like they didn't do anything.
That's all true if the point of contact wasn't the head. He knew what he was doing. That said, Evans needs to keep his head up at all times and be aware of his surroundings.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Taking NHL Vegas +700 to win series for 1 unit bet365, I still have this series going long so hopefully will have a hedging opportunity late in the series
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Taking NHL Vegas +700 to win series for 1 unit bet365, I still have this series going long so hopefully will have a hedging opportunity late in the series
Good luck Sharky. I have some at +550 and would put more on them had they came out victorious in OT the other day. And even though all Colorado did was hold serve, it's still gonna be an uphill battle. Game 3 the big one now. Lose and their toast. Win and back home for game 4 with Reeves back and that 6-1 game 1 shellacking is a bit of a distant memory. I like my sides coaching and goaltending in this series. Need a little more Stone tonight and more focused Fluery. That 1st goal was a killer.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
GL to us Bushay, while there are always overreactions when a team is up 2-0, I always look at it as long as you hold serve like you say they are still in it. I have this series and the Isles-Bost series going 7 games so long way to go I estimate. My strength this year was taking teams in regulation so I will do the same tonight.

10 - Vegas 60 Minute Regulation Line +0.5 -146 pinny 1unit
11 - Montreal 60 Minute Regulation Line +107 pinny 1 unit
 
I'm not going to say the Knights don't have a chance because its hockey and there is a ton of luck factor in it, but as I was saying before the talent gap is quite large between the teams. Avs having most of their players available right now makes them a totally different team, far superior to the team that still was good enough to be #1. They seemed a little surprised by the change in tactics by the Knights in the second period of the last game, but seemed to finally make some adjustment later in the third so I doubt they get beat in possession and shots as much as they did for the rest of the series. Vegas crowd will give the Knights a boost tonight no doubt to start off, Avs will have to be ready to weather that storm. I expect Bednar to sub out some guys for veterans, especially on the 4th line, and to play a different more conservative "road game" strategy. I like the under again, I think we get a very tight game with far fewer chances tonight.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Knights held Colorado off the scoreboard and outshot the Avalanche 31-12 and out-chanced them 23-15 the last 2 regulation periods and hit 4 goalposts. They had some bad puck luck and should have won game 2. More importantly, they neutralized the Avs top line those last 2 periods till Rantanen scored in OT.
They settled them down and now go home to 18k fans.
 
Knights held Colorado off the scoreboard and outshot the Avalanche 31-12 and out-chanced them 23-15 the last 2 regulation periods and hit 4 goalposts. They had some bad puck luck and should have won game 2. More importantly, they neutralized the Avs top line those last 2 periods till Rantanen scored in OT.
They settled them down and now go home to 18k fans.

If this gives you such confidence, why aren't you going all-in on betting the Knights as underdogs tonight? Why do you sound so hesitant on this one key game, but more sure there is value in the series price?
 
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