NHL 2021 Season

So doing some math with the parlay calculator here. VGK is -420 this round let's say, prices vary of course. Then they are even money to win the Cup. That implies they are around -165 to win next round. If we assume Tampa is the opponent 3 out of 4 times, I can implied a price of around -155 for Tampa and -225 for NYI.

Do those not seem high? VGK gets home ice which is now worth something, but still I think they are at most a -140 over Tampa and could see it being closer to pickem depending on how this round goes. The Isles have no betting support so that price might seem right but sharps would be all over the Isles at that.

Are these odds just heavily skewed to offset book liabilities at this point? I'm not betting any more because I got a sizable position on Tampa at 8-1 and not really planning on hedging, but if I didn't I think the Tampa +180 I see out there is moderately interesting, but if Vegas comes in a much larger favorite in the finals then the right move is parlay two series bets now.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
GL with the TBAY Futures WB, I'm curious to see if the 2 dogs have any bite the 1st couple games. Going with this one to start tomorrow.

Islanders to score 1st period - NO -122 pinny 1 unit
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
I took NYI +170 in G1. Price almost mandates it

I'll also take a shot on Monday with: Golden Showers PL +110ish
 
GL with the TBAY Futures WB, I'm curious to see if the 2 dogs have any bite the 1st couple games. Going with this one to start tomorrow.

Islanders to score 1st period - NO -122 pinny 1 unit

Islanders might throw in a clunker today, I'm passing for this one. If they lose then definitely will start backing them at these high prices. The Lightning just seem so business like in their series, being champs they are very steady in their efforts.

Canadiens might show a real spark in game one with all the time off plus playing in a real hockey building for the first time has to get them fired up. We will see if the crowd eventually gets to them, but I think for the 1st period they will be charged up. I think VGK could let down a bit, but will have to change their game plan and style here with such a different opponent and that could take a period or two to adjust to. Note how they started poorly first two series, could see a bit of the same here before they find their gear.
 
I just locked in +435 for the series on the Canadiens as I think some sharps will step in shortly and take it down a bit. Still can't believe its gotten this high. Who is laying minus five dollars on a hockey team to win a seven game series???
 
I just locked in +435 for the series on the Canadiens as I think some sharps will step in shortly and take it down a bit. Still can't believe its gotten this high. Who is laying minus five dollars on a hockey team to win a seven game series???

Vegas homers & ML parlay bettors for 2.

Pinnacle has -448 & +373. Who's offering +435?
 
Vegas homers & ML parlay bettors for 2.

Pinnacle has -448 & +373. Who's offering +435?
I got it at SportsBetting. SuperBook had +425 and FanDuel had +410 so there are a number of choices at near the same price. I'd also say being a former "homer" in Vegas I don't think they bet -500 much, even parlays. Hard to get a decent parlay payoff at that amount, even if you pair it with a dog. Plus Vegas people are on average incredibly savvy about gambling of all kinds. They might like the Knights, but they aren't idiots and won't blindly bet something with bad value.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Some interesting game notes from the official game notes I have access to.

Stanley Cup Pedigree The Vegas roster includes four Stanley Cup champions: Marc-Andre Fleury (2009 PIT, 2016 PIT, 2017 PIT), Alec Martinez (2012 LAK, 2014 LAK), Alex Pietrangelo (2019 STL) & Chandler Stephenson (2018 WSH). Fleury is one of eight active NHL players – & the only active goaltender – with his name on the Cup at least three times; he can become the 13th netminder in NHL history to have his name engraved four or more times.

Among the Canadiens’ active players, Jake Allen (2019 – STL), Joel Edmundson (2019 – STL), Michael Frolik (2013 – CHI), Corey Perry (2007 – ANA), Eric Staal (2006 – CAR) &Tyler Toffoli (2014 – LAK) all won the Stanley Cup once in their career.

Corey Perry (156), Shea Weber (86), Eric Staal (72), Tyler Toffoli (65), Joel Edmundson (64), and Brendan Gallagher (60) all have 60 or more NHL playoff games under the belt. Michael Frolik (47) is near the 50-game plateau in his career.

VEGAS CONNECTIONS - Tomas Tatar sported Vegas’ colors in 2017-18. - Tatar had Tomas Nosek as a teammate in Detroit from 2015 to 2017. - Jonathan Drouin and Jonathan Marchesseault were teammates in Tampa Bay from 2014 to 2016. - Eric Staal played with Patrick Brown from 2014 to 2016 in Carolina. - Corey Perry skated with Mattias Janmark in Dallas in 2019-20. - Josh Anderson and William Karlsson played together in Columbus from 2014 to 2017. - Jake Allen (2012 to 2017) and Joel Edmundson (2015 to 2017) skated with Ryan Reaves in St. Louis. - Allen (2012 to 2020) and Edmundson (2015 to 2019) also played with - Tyler Toffoli played with Alec Martinez (2012 to 2020) and Brayden McNabb (2014 to 2017) in Los Angeles. - Max Pacioretty spent the first 10 seasons of his career in Montreal. - Nick Suzuki was drafted by the Golden Knights in 2017.


I like having access to this as it highlights the emotional aspect that doesn't show up in the normal stats that can at times make the normal stats somewhat meaningless.

This stuff is only available to NHL.com paid memberships but I always find backdoor access every season. Just be careful as you can overload your brain with all the info here.

 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Montreal Petry out tonight has to hurt.....no?
Can't help if they move a 3rd pairing D up to play in his place thus change the 3rd pairing as well. If he just inserts a bench guy in Petry's place it more than likely won't be as disruptive, especially if the fill-in guy can fit right in.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Petry plays 2nd string PP, 2nd string PK as well as 2nd pairing with Edmondson 5x5. The worst it can do is scramble the 2nd and 3rd pairing so now 4 guys are no longer playing with a guy they are used to playing with. Much bigger if he was a 1st pairing injury and he also got any significant PP and PK minutes.
 
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They did ok without Petry at the end of the last series. I'd be more concerned if he was declared out for the series because as Bushay notes other guys would have to wear a lot of 2nd unit hats that they might not be best suited for and that adds up over games.

On the other hand as we saw with the Colorado series the Knights are huge on shot blocking point shots, which is basically how Petry earns his money. That aspect of the game really doesn't succeed against this opponent so I think his eventual return will do more to balance out minutes and pairings better than add a dimension which changes the games.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Petry is important to Montreal since he's in their top 4 and offers an upside on the offensive end where they can go into scoring droughts.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
That about as bad as I've seen Vegas play in a long time in the 1st period. DeBoer is real pissed wonder if Montreal will survive the last 2 period pushback.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
After 2 periods some places have Vegas +1.5 +115-+125 ... that late goal at the end of the 2nd will propel a push by Vegas, will Montreal survive?
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
After 2 periods some places have Vegas +1.5 +115-+125 ... that late goal at the end of the 2nd will propel a push by Vegas, will Montreal survive?
Just wasn't their night. They worked their asses off but got very few good bounces. Give Price and the Habs credit where credit is due tonight.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Quite important for Montreal to score 1st it plays into their style, I think they have not lost when scoring 1st in the playoffs. Too bad Montreal can't have a soldout crowd at home, sounds like max 3500
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
I've been drawn to this one since the series began, maybe I'm wrong but I think it will be a mucky type game back on the Island, at this point with the window of the season closing, just have to keep playing them.

Tampa Bay - NYIslanders Under 5.5 -145 Full game 1 unit pinny .... If you get 60 minute Regulation Lines another way to play it is Under 5 if you choose

86-52-2 +37.26 units
 
I've been drawn to this one since the series began, maybe I'm wrong but I think it will be a mucky type game back on the Island, at this point with the window of the season closing, just have to keep playing them.

Tampa Bay - NYIslanders Under 5.5 -145 Full game 1 unit pinny .... If you get 60 minute Regulation Lines another way to play it is Under 5 if you choose

86-52-2 +37.26 units

GL, feels like the under is the right play here. These teams, especially the Lightning, seem to set a totals pace early on. If there is no scoring in first 10 minutes or so then you get unders, but if there is a goal or two the chase seems to be on and you get a lot of goals. I'll wait until its live and play accordingly.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
I would think the game would go under unless TBay scores multiples PP goals, have an itch that says either the game today or tomorrow will go to OT perhaps
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Vegas forward Chandler Stephenson may miss the game as well. Was not on the ice today. He's on Vegas 1st line with Stone and Pacioretty. He was late scratch in game 2 and Vegas looked like shit and lost.

Interesting game tonight.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Vegas forward Chandler Stephenson may miss the game as well. Was not on the ice today. He's on Vegas 1st line with Stone and Pacioretty. He was late scratch in game 2 and Vegas looked like shit and lost.

Interesting game tonight.
Definitely missed by Vegas and they did not answer the question when asked if he made the trip to Montreal meaning probably not. Added storylines for tonight
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
This play is because I do believe Vegas will comeback but also because my Futures on Montreal is double the amount than my Golden Knights Futures so an improved position and hedge with Vegas.

Vegas Golden Knights Series Price -158 Bookmaker 1 unit
 
This play is because I do believe Vegas will comeback but also because my Futures on Montreal is double the amount than my Golden Knights Futures so an improved position and hedge with Vegas.

Vegas Golden Knights Series Price -158 Bookmaker 1 unit

I too think the Knights will breakthrough at some point and then win 3 in a row. Might be tomorrow, might be game 5. Just amazes me how they fall back onto this lazy style of play firing shots from the perimeter, mostly from the D. If you're lucky that goes in, but against a top notch goalie those successes are going to be rare. Funny they talk about Price being so great, but he's only been so so thus far, he's let a handful of weak goals in. The second one yesterday was one he should stop, the screen goals are not easy but he's usually pretty good about his angles so they don't beat him either. Nothing as bad as the goal MAF let in of course, but a truly dialed in Price has to scare this team if they don't change their style of play and go hard to the net and work in some cross-slot passes.
 
Tonight I like the over 5 in NY. Islanders have been surprisingly strong scoring goals at home, I think they come off that uncharacteristic 1 goal home game and put a few in. Tampa though might also get going as I mentioned before, they are so tough to beat because they can win a tight low scoring game or a track meet. My general rule is I'll bet over off an under game up until game 4. Once you get to game 5 or later in any series the under is the bet to back.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
It’s costing us the series right now’: Power-play struggles sink Golden Knights in Game 3 loss


In the past 30 years, no team has won the Stanley Cup with a playoff power-play percentage lower than 11 percent. There has also never been a Stanley Cup winner with the lowest power-play percentage of any team in the playoffs.

The Golden Knights are trying to be the first team to do both, and it’s making their path to the ultimate goal incredibly difficult.

Vegas’ power play has been abysmal this postseason, converting 38 chances with a man advantage (third most in the NHL) into only four goals. That power-play percentage of 10.5 is the worst of any team in the league this season and is worse than any team to win it all in the last three decades.

Friday night in Montreal, the Golden Knights’ power-play struggles cost them dearly. Vegas outplayed the Canadiens for the vast majority of regulation, completely dominating possession. Vegas held overwhelming advantages in shots (45-27), scoring chances (36-22) and high danger chances (18-11). The defensemen broke the puck out of their zone seamlessly for most of the contest, allowing the Golden Knights to play in Montreal’s zone for long stretches of action.

And with that control of play, the Golden Knights earned more than their fair share of power-play opportunities. They had four power plays in the first two periods and were unable to generate even a shred of offense during those eight minutes with a man advantage.

“There are a lot of problems (on the power play), I don’t think you can pinpoint just one,” Vegas forward Reilly Smith said. “Our breakouts have been bad. We’re not doing a good job handling pressure. We’re not releasing the puck very well. And we’re not doing a good job crashing the net and picking up rebounds. There are a lot of things we have to get better at, and it’s costing us the series right now.”

Smith is absolutely right, the Golden Knights’ ineffective power play is the biggest reason they trail Montreal 2-1 after three games in their Stanley Cup semifinal series.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
I too think the Knights will breakthrough at some point and then win 3 in a row. Might be tomorrow, might be game 5. Just amazes me how they fall back onto this lazy style of play firing shots from the perimeter, mostly from the D. If you're lucky that goes in, but against a top notch goalie those successes are going to be rare. Funny they talk about Price being so great, but he's only been so so thus far, he's let a handful of weak goals in. The second one yesterday was one he should stop, the screen goals are not easy but he's usually pretty good about his angles so they don't beat him either. Nothing as bad as the goal MAF let in of course, but a truly dialed in Price has to scare this team if they don't change their style of play and go hard to the net and work in some cross-slot passes.
Plus Weber and Petry both playing hurt.
 
It’s costing us the series right now’: Power-play struggles sink Golden Knights in Game 3 loss


In the past 30 years, no team has won the Stanley Cup with a playoff power-play percentage lower than 11 percent. There has also never been a Stanley Cup winner with the lowest power-play percentage of any team in the playoffs.

The Golden Knights are trying to be the first team to do both, and it’s making their path to the ultimate goal incredibly difficult.

Vegas’ power play has been abysmal this postseason, converting 38 chances with a man advantage (third most in the NHL) into only four goals. That power-play percentage of 10.5 is the worst of any team in the league this season and is worse than any team to win it all in the last three decades.

Friday night in Montreal, the Golden Knights’ power-play struggles cost them dearly. Vegas outplayed the Canadiens for the vast majority of regulation, completely dominating possession. Vegas held overwhelming advantages in shots (45-27), scoring chances (36-22) and high danger chances (18-11). The defensemen broke the puck out of their zone seamlessly for most of the contest, allowing the Golden Knights to play in Montreal’s zone for long stretches of action.

And with that control of play, the Golden Knights earned more than their fair share of power-play opportunities. They had four power plays in the first two periods and were unable to generate even a shred of offense during those eight minutes with a man advantage.

“There are a lot of problems (on the power play), I don’t think you can pinpoint just one,” Vegas forward Reilly Smith said. “Our breakouts have been bad. We’re not doing a good job handling pressure. We’re not releasing the puck very well. And we’re not doing a good job crashing the net and picking up rebounds. There are a lot of things we have to get better at, and it’s costing us the series right now.”

Smith is absolutely right, the Golden Knights’ ineffective power play is the biggest reason they trail Montreal 2-1 after three games in their Stanley Cup semifinal series.

This has been bad for years. They said the same thing last year against Vancouver and Dallas. They just don't have a good net front presence. When they were willing to play Glass the PP was better, but they clearly have zero confidence in him now and he may never get meaningful time with them again. Tuch is ok going to the net, he's willing, but he lacks the tipped puck skill and seems to lack the instincts to get to a soft area in front. Smith may be their best guy at this, but he's often playing the bumper spot or hanging out in the high slot.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Vegas goes back to Fleury tonight in Vegas, my interest in futures is on Montreal so again consider this a hedge type play. My feeling is Montreal will get outplayed and outshot again with the momentum being on the Golden Knight side. Can Price save Montreal tonight my answer is no but we have seen crazier things happen in the playoffs. Still have Vegas Series bet pending.

87-52-2 +38.26 units

82 - Vegas -0,5 -133 60 Minute Regulation Line pinny 0.5 unit
82 - Vegas -1 -140 Full Game Line pinny 0.5 unit
 
Vegas goes back to Fleury tonight in Vegas, my interest in futures is on Montreal so again consider this a hedge type play. My feeling is Montreal will get outplayed and outshot again with the momentum being on the Golden Knight side. Can Price save Montreal tonight my answer is no but we have seen crazier things happen in the playoffs. Still have Vegas Series bet pending.

87-52-2 +38.26 units

82 - Vegas -0,5 -133 60 Minute Regulation Line pinny 0.5 unit
82 - Vegas -1 -140 Full Game Line pinny 0.5 unit

VGK may do exactly as you speculate, but I'm not convinced it gives them much of an edge in winning the scoreboard. I think the sweet spot for this team is about 27-30 SOG, playing a heavy style that keeps zone time. When they get closer to 40 or more, its usually just firing away from the perimeter and leaving themselves open for a counter off a missed or blocked shot. They tend to be in better defensive posture trying to cycle and keeping their D men near the blue lines.

Stephenson probably is back tonight which may be a more important factor, although I do think its pretty goofy a team this good relies on a decent, but nothing special, center to handle an inferior team.
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Well said and accurate WB, Montreal appears to be controlling the tough areas. If Vegas doesn't get anything off the rush their scoring chances/percentage diminish. Montreal doing to Vegas successfully what I thought the Isles had a good chance to do against TBay but its been the reverse.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
It's destiny. Montreal for the cup. Carey Price the legend.

28 years after Patrick Roy flat out stole the Cup for Les Habs we might see it happen again

I took NYI 1P +120 tonight

Not sure they can hang for all 60 minutes but I do think they come out fired up and play well for 20
 

sharky99

EOG Dedicated
Probably a good one Wink, I would expect a strong effort from the Isles in the 1st 20.

Looks like several similarities from the current Habs team and 1993. Shocking to see the goal contributions from the Vegas forwards in this series.
 
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