Post-race analysis of the Kentucky Derby

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I trust TVG host Dave Weaver's opinion.

He's a gambler's gambler who bets daily.

Weaver's top pick was #1 War of Will.

He was asked where War of Will would have finished if he had not encountered trouble at the head of the stretch.

Weaver answered honestly, "He would not have won the race but he would have finished in the top five."
 

Valuist

EOG Master
I trust TVG host Dave Weaver's opinion.

He's a gambler's gambler who bets daily.

Weaver's top pick was #1 War of Will.

He was asked where War of Will would have finished if he had not encountered trouble at the head of the stretch.

Weaver answered honestly, "He would not have won the race but he would have finished in the top five."

One other question; what happened to the Baffert trio? Improbable appeared to be in striking position and missed the incident on far turn but was one paced. Game Winner and Roadster were total no shows.
 

Foresthill

EOG Addicted
One other question; what happened to the Baffert trio? Improbable appeared to be in striking position and missed the incident on far turn but was one paced. Game Winner and Roadster were total no shows.

Final order of finish:

Improbable 4th
Game Winner 5th
Roadster 15th

Source: drf.com
 

Bigrunner

EOG Master
Final order of finish:

Improbable 4th
Game Winner 5th
Roadster 15th

Source: drf.com

Game Winner lost the race at the start. He came from last very wide the whole race. Was moving the fastest at the end. Ran much further than any other horse. Much the best, horrible ride by Rosario.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Here's the ground loss numbers, per Trakus. Trakus lists feet relative to the winner. I adjust to feet relative to the horse who saved the most ground. In this case, it was Tax. So relative to Tax, here's the ground loss:

Maximum Security +20
Country House +71
Code of Honor + 4
Tacitus +96
Improbable + 4
Game Winner +123
Master Fencer + 54
War of Will +11
Cutting Humor +93
Tax 0

A sub 23 opening quarter and 46 3/5 half was fast opening fractions but the finish time of nearly 2:04 indicates the race was falling apart late. The horses making up ground were just catching tiring horses.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
I see maximum security will not run in the preakness, wouldn't it be a crock if country house won the triple crown?
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Is there an argument that a 20 horse field is too dangerous? Man, it was bunched up coming around the last curve. Is the best explanation that the horsed veered right because he did not want to run through the mud puddle?
 
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mr merlin

EOG Master
Is there an argument that a 20 horse field is to dangerous? Man, it was bunched up coming around the last curve. Is the best explanation that the horsed veered right because he did not want to run through the mud puddle?
More likely it's because he's a young horse(almost a baby), who reacted to a combination of the 150000 people screaming and the fact he's making a turn in the mud at high speed.

Lets get real, he "veered" like 6 -8 ft, and he was a length ahead of every other horse at the time, he doesn't have a rear view mirror.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Is there an argument that a 20 horse field is too dangerous? Man, it was bunched up coming around the last curve. Is the best explanation that the horsed veered right because he did not want to run through the mud puddle?

There's no going back.

Wagering on the race seemed to explode
when Churchill Downs introduced the idea of 20 betting interests.

So much so, the track has introduced in recent years an also-eligible list.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Starting to poke around online saw this in Maximum Sercurity breeding profile..
Foal date may 14 2016
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Maximum Security was no doubt the wiseguy horse in the Derby this year.

Battaglia mispriced the colt on the morning line.
 

IWishIWasAPro

EOG Master
One of my older guys I respect said many moons ago there was a time jockeys were hitting other horses other than their own with whips to gain an edge. I couldnt tell if he was joking.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
One of my older guys I respect said many moons ago there was a time jockeys were hitting other horses other than their own with whips to gain an edge. I couldnt tell if he was joking.

A real possibility.

I've seen jocks whip other jocks while horseback.

At its best, horse racing is a wildly-competitive game.
 

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
More likely it's because he's a young horse(almost a baby), who reacted to a combination of the 150000 people screaming and the fact he's making a turn in the mud at high speed.

Lets get real, he "veered" like 6 -8 ft, and he was a length ahead of every other horse at the time, he doesn't have a rear view mirror.
Maybe they'll have to start doing what NFL teams do when going into an especially loud stadium like Arrowhead or Seattle. Pump in a lot of noise to get the horse use to it before the derby.
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Maybe they'll have to start doing what NFL teams do when going into an especially loud stadium like Arrowhead or Seattle. Pump in a lot of noise to get the horse use to it before the derby.
No, just dont overreact when an animal doesn't follow his "orders".
 

Valuist

EOG Master
first time Ive read that. can you elaborate?

In the Santa Anita Derby, I think he clearly was best. Went 4 wide on both turns, made the big move to take command, then got nailed late by Roadster, who had a perfect trip. Think he may also have been best in the Rebel as well. I'm not as convinced he was best in the Derby, however. Maximum Security did all the dirty work, and the only impressive fractions were the early ones.
 

blueline

EOG Master
So there was an infraction but because its the Derby leave it alone...thanks Andy..put the typewriter back in the case.....jeeeeesuzz
 

richsox24

EOG Master
So there was an infraction but because its the Derby leave it alone...thanks Andy..put the typewriter back in the case.....jeeeeesuzz
My thoughts exactly.

Idiot Beyer admits there was a clear infraction, admits jockey Gafflione had to steady his horse, admits it cost that horse at least 1 length and affected others, could have been catastrophic,, but said results should stand. that might be the most hilarious thing I've read.
 
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