Ray Luca NFL 2020
- Thread starter Ray Luca
- Start date
No feel right now.
I like that approach, Ray.
I trust what I see, not what I read.
Kickoff time tonight is set for 8:25 ET.
I like that approach, Ray.
I trust what I see, not what I read.
Kickoff time tonight is set for 8:25 ET.
Last edited:
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Houston on the board first.
After the Texans scored, Kansas City was listed as a 3.5-point favorite in live wagering.
After the Texans scored, Kansas City was listed as a 3.5-point favorite in live wagering.
I saw closing numbers of 9 and 53 at most sharp spots.
Kansas City with the answer-back touchdown.
Eleven plays, 75 yards in less than six minutes.
What else is new?
Eleven plays, 75 yards in less than six minutes.
What else is new?
Game tied at 7 early in the second quarter.
KC now -7.5 in live wagering.
KC now -7.5 in live wagering.
choslamshe
EOG Master
Is it really possible for 15,000 fans to sound the same as 70,000? There has to be some form of manufactured noise happening.
Early in the telecast, I heard Al Michaels say NBC was not responsible for any manufactured noise.
Not sure about the staff at Arrowhead.
Not sure about the staff at Arrowhead.
Current score: Kansas City 24 Houston 7 with 10 minutes left in the third quarter.
The Chiefs have scored 24 unanswered points.
Kansas City is now a 17.5-point favorite in live wagering.
The Chiefs have scored 24 unanswered points.
Kansas City is now a 17.5-point favorite in live wagering.
choslamshe
EOG Master
Over players might have to dig and scotch tape their tickets from the garbage. Unreal
Bushay
NHL Expert
hows that black kid Mahomes? Any good?
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Pretty tempting
Love your contributions, RAY.
Quick question: Why announce you have no feel right now yet post a selection on the first game of the season?
Quick question: Why announce you have no feel right now yet post a selection on the first game of the season?
Ray Luca
EOG Master
Boredom. Action bet. And I like making lines on NFL..figure I share some plays this season.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
It depends on a few things, namely how much do you like the original play. Since you bet it for action,I may have thrown half on the -3.5.
WildBill
2
Why hedge unless that was part of your plan to begin with?
Yes, good question. Usually a hedge is only good betting strategy if it , by itself, is +EV. The exception is if you have so overbet the original that you have a significant amount of your net worth at risk so the theoretical marginal utility of money may into play.
No, middling odds don't apply if you are betting in-progress or a halftime. In this case, you are "gambling away" the huge equity of the original Texans +9.5 bet in which they are ahead by 7 points. You can make the case that the in-progress KC -3.5 standalone bet at this point is +EV based on your analysis and if that is the case you have two +EV bets in play.
I remember many years ago the former Michigan bartender, Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers) made the same claim on the radio about halftime "middles". Eventually Fezzik got hold of him and explained with a -EV halftime bet he was just losing equity from the original bet.
WildBill
2
That's a great, hopefully easy way to put it Bob. So many people love to hedge and ignore that they lose juice most of the time, and that they probably overbet in the first place because they thought I'll just hedge it out. I love all the people who claim how smart they were betting into future book with horrendous takeout percentage because it was the time things worked out well and they were able to get a favorable hedge against it. When I then say well if you have it, don't hedge future book equity away, they are like but I want to make sure I win something on this bet which is a telltale sign that you overbet the future and gave the house a ton of edge on what amounts to an overbet. When I tell them if you are shooting for the stars, you are getting lottery like odds they disagree but how many guys you know bet some team at 100-1 or better and they actually cashed the ticket with little or no hedging? I literally have never seen someone I know show me that.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
I'm on Wash and Chi also, GL today.