SUNDAY FIRST 5 INNINGS PLAY (2 FOR SUNDAY, YTD 23-15)

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Washington/NYM over 5 even:
Shortly after the Nationals (64-66) all but conceded the chase for the NL East by trading Daniel Murphy to the Chicago Cubs, Washington has failed to score over their last 27 innings, dropping their last 3 games in the process. The Nationals trail the Braves by 8.5 games and have dropped a pair of 3-0 decisions to the Mets (58-71) in their current 3 game series. Yesterday afternoon Ahmed Rosario and Todd Frazier each belted solo HR’s, Michael Conforto added an RBI single and Zack Wheeler won his 6th straight decision. Wheeler (9-6) hurled 7 shutout innings of 6 hit ball walking 3 and striking out 4 turning a disastrous first half into an ace like workhorse in the second half. Tanner Roark was the hard luck loser falling to 8-13 despite giving up just a run on 4 hits over 6 innings with 7 strikeouts. The Nats will try to avoid getting swept and try to get their offense going this afternoon while the Mets look for their 7th win over their last 9 games.

The Mets send Steven Matz (5-10 4.55) to the hill who has dropped 5 of his last 6 decisions overall. During his last outing he picked up a no-decision in a 6-3 Mets win over San Francisco in which he allowed just 3 runs and 2 hits over 5 innings with a walk and 5 strikeouts. Matz faces a Nationals lineup hitting .250 overall averaging 4.5 runs per contest and 5th in the NL with 153 HR. Trea Turner (.268 15 52) has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 (.384) combining power with exceptional speed evident by his 33 steals in 41 attempts (80%). Anthony Rendon (.291 16 62) has a 5 game hitting streak (.263) and seems to be showing no ill effects from a recent wrist injury still leading the club in batting. Bryce Harper (.246 30 81) survived the trade and waiver wire deadlines but has gone hitless over his last 14 at-bats despite raising his batting average some 35 points over the last 2 months. Juan Soto (.291 15 45) has hit safely in 4 of his last 5 (.300) and at just 19 years old appears to be a huge part of Washington’s future. Michael Taylor (.233 6 27) is second on the Nats with 24 steals in 29 attempts (83%) but will look to break out of an 0 for 11 slump.

Washington counters with Jefry Rodriguez (1-1 5.46) who will be making his third start since being called up from AAA Syracuse. The 25 year old right handed rookie will be making his 6th start overall. He faces a Mets lineup batting just .236 overall averaging 4.2 runs per contest 10th in the NL with 136 HR. Conforto (.235 18 52) leads the Mets in power and production but is just 4 for his last 23 (.174) and is behind last season’s career highs due to a very slow start. Brandon Nimmo (.265 15 39) just began a rehab assignment with A St Lucie and hopes to return by the middle of next week. Wilmer Flores (.275 11 48) is 7 for 21 (.333) over his last 5 games and is overdue for some trademark walk-offs. Rosario (.244 7 41) has made the most of his opportunities blending into an everyday player and recently broke a 1 for 14 slump (.071) with 3 hits and 3 runs over his last 2 games. Todd Frazier (.234 15 47) has a 4 game hitting streak (.333) belting 3 HR over that stretch.

We get a bargain of a price this afternoon at CitiField, a venue which once opened some 9 years ago was considered a cathedral of NL ballparks, has become a lot more friendlier to the hitters since. Dimensions remain fairly challenging at 408 straight away and 395 to the power alleys, but the corners are average at 330 and the ball jumps off the bat a lot better in the daytime heat. Matz has not had a productive second half but that’s partly due to a lack of run support, and Rodriguez has certainly shown flashes of brilliance here and there. Still, we expected a lot more fireworks through the first 2 games of this series and will hopefully get the offenses going this afternoon as we look to continue a resurgent season winners of 19 of our last 27 after a rough 4-8 start.

I’ll have a second play later this afternoon.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Not even a run to work with in the opener so let’s see if we can redeem ourselves in the nightcap.

NYY/Baltimore over 4.5 -115:
If it suddenly feels kind of cramped in the AL East, you have been doing your homework. The Yankees (82-47) have won 7 of their last 8 including the first 3 games of this 4 game series against Baltimore (37-93), the worst team in baseball. With Boston on the verge of getting swept for the very first time this season against Tampa Bay, the Yankees with a win could pull to within 6 games of first place. Yesterday, the Yankees swept a doubleheader from the Orioles and tonight look to pull off a sweep of their own on ESPN at 8:15 from Camden Yards.

Baltimore sends Dylan Bundy (7-12 5.31) to the hill who in each of his last 3 starts has allowed 7 earned runs, losing 2 of them. In an 8-2 loss to Toronto last week, the 25 year old 4th year right-hander lasted just 4 innings surrendering 10 hits with 3 strikeouts. Bundy faces a Yankees lineup batting just .254 overall but averaging 5.2 runs per contest with a major league leading 210 HR. Giancarlo Stanton (.282 32 82) isn’t having anywhere near his career high 2017 when he was a member of the Miami Marlins, however he is 5th in the AL in HR and 7th in RBI overall. Miguel Andujar (.300 21 70) seems like a clear lock for the AL ROY award as he has hit safely over his last 3 (.429), all multi-hit games, including a big 3 run HR yesterday in game 1. Brett Gardner (.242 11 38) has a hit in each of his last 6 games. Aaron Hicks (.253 21 61) is one of six Yankees with at least 20 HR this season, and went 5 for 9 in yesterday’s twinbill. Gleyber Torres (.271 19 56) went 4 for 7 yesterday and seems to have found the form again despite suffering a subpar August thus far also marred by injury. Speaking of injuries, the Yankees seem to have enough offense to carry them as Aaron Judge (.285 26 61) and Didi Gregorius (.270 22 74) continue to miss significant time.

The Yankees counter with Luis Severino (16-6 3.28) who has suffered through a subpar 2 months of the season which began right after the ASB. The 24 year old 4 year right hander has now dropped 4 of his last 6 decisions, but did show signs of improvement in his last start, an 11-6 win over Toronto in which he yielded just 2 runs on 6 hits over 5 innings walking 2 and striking out 8. Severino faces an Orioles lineup batting just .236 averaging only 3.8 runs per game with 158 HR ranking 9th in the AL. Adam Jones (.280 13 49) leads the O’s in batting and RBI. Trey Mancini (.236 17 40) is tied with Mark Trumbo (.261 17 40) for the club lead in HR. Trumbo has missed the last 6 games due to a knee injury. Jonathan Villar (258 10 33) is just 3 for his last 21 (.143) and leads the birds with 18 steals in 20 attempts (90%). Chris Davis (.169 16 44) has been either feast or famine evident by his anorexic average and 162 strikeouts in 389 plate appearances.

We get a decent price this evening at Camden Yards, since the days of its inception looked at as a hitter’s delight. It’s dimensions are similar to Yankee Stadium whether it is the power alleys or the corners with a slightly higher right field porch. The question is that is there enough time for the Yankees to catch Boston with 2 series remaining, while for Baltimore will they end up with the worst record in the AL contending for that dishonor with Kansas City. Severino has not shown anywhere near his first half Cy Young contending success from the first half, and Bundy could be on a short Showalter leash given his recent misfortunes. We look for a Sunday split to keep us treading around 60% for the season. Best of luck however you play!
 
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