Taleb on Silver

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      [IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/764806062545436672/chnF2k5l_bigger.jpg[/IMG][U] [B]Nassim Nicholas Taleb[/B]‏Verified account @[B]nntaleb[/B][/U] 2h2 hours ago
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      Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Nate Silver
      Nate Silver just proved a second election in a row he doesn't know "how math works". (cont)https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059149034693316608 …
      Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,
      Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538
      I wish I could forgive you from not knowing how math works, but some things are truly unpardonable.
      https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1059147114826162177
      …
      67 replies 183 retweets 544 likes
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    3. [U][IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/764806062545436672/chnF2k5l_bigger.jpg[/IMG] [B]Nassim Nicholas Taleb[/B]‏Verified account @[B]nntaleb[/B][/U] 25m25 minutes ago
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      Nassim Nicholas Taleb Retweeted Bryan G
      4- Things are actually worse: that @NateSilver538 doesn't get that if BOTH X & Non-X are "extremely possible = Probability converging to 50-50 is EXACTLY my problem w/his misunderstanding of probability in forecasting, & point of my paper. Gabish?https://twitter.com/coachglove/status/1059217783886503937 …
      Nassim Nicholas Taleb added,
      Bryan G @coachglove
      Replying to @RichardKacz @NachoOliveras and 3 others
      The origin of this whole thread was someone translating Nate saying “extremely likely” into “50/50” and that is not what he said nor what he meant. Nate is saying there is an 84% chance the house flips. That’s not a “toss up”. The prediction is right there on his site
      26 replies 17 retweets 69 likes
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    4. [IMG]https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/764806062545436672/chnF2k5l_bigger.jpg[/IMG][U] [B]Nassim Nicholas Taleb[/B]‏Verified account @[B]nntaleb[/B][/U] 14m14 minutes ago
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      5- FOR THE RECORD I am not translating @DineshDSouza's point that it was 50-50: I ALSO understood ~50-50 DIRECTLY from Silver's "extremely" in the linked "The Hill". Gabish?
 
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