Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.
Well, I don't care what anybody says - you are going about it in an intelligent manner. Establish the parameters - keep track - and try to analyze. I did something very similar 12 years ago and put 15,000 scalps since then into my data base and I felt I learned something - still learning something. There are intangibles you can't put in a database. Just try to be able to sort it as much as possible.
We don't have the advantage of seeing the action come in like the bookies. The criticism of your technique comes from the bookie types who don't want the players to know anything and the know it all type people who have never tracked, analyzed, or done anything more than keep track of one day at a time and that was on napkin from dinner table.
If you have 15000 scaps tracked then you have at least 10-12K examples of where Pinnacle was off enough to assume a lean. Feel free to go and see how many times they were 'right' and how many times they were wrong.
Or I will simply make this assumption, in about 70-75% of those scalps Pinny actually had the best number BOTH ways on the SAME game, so therefore the next logical question would be how do you determine a lean there when theyre leaning against themselves?
Pinnacle is worried about Pinnacle, they (used) to take a lot of action on American sports from American players. Now not so much, but they still take alot of action. If they opened a baseball game -120/112 and someone hammered the everliving shit out of that opener and moved it to -125/117 is that a lean? What if every other book opened -125/115 in the first place? Now Pinny is exactly the same as them but might have taken 30K in action already while those other places have taken zero. Then the 'real' action starts and the -125 side is still favorable to players. Guys come out of the woodwork the usual steam and sheep herding starts and suddenly the game gets to 139/131 at Pinnacle, it is 140/130 every where else. Pinny has say 300K one way and 120k the other. Is that still a lean? They still have the best number on both sides. So they might hope the guy(s) that hammered the shit out of 120 buy(s) back for the 11 cents. How can you determine the lean whenin most cases Pinnacle has the best line both ways.
Some guys like to use spreads and vig and how they move it around. Pinnacle works on such a small hold they move vig for any number of reasons most of the time it is automatic. Back in 02,03,04, and start of 05 the moves were always automated, that why guys with some smarts made a lot of money off them. They changed their software and tightened it up a little but the opportunities were still there.
So guys debating and looking for a pinny lean no matter how they want to do it are basically playing a video game. Theyre looking to try and figure out an AI program and how to 'beat' it by predicting what it means when it moves a number one way or the other.
But like I said if you have that many scalps then look at the few where Pinnacle offered a clearly different line than another book and start record keeping. I think you will find that anyway you try and figure out how Pinny was 'leaning' will not have anymore than a 52% or so 'advantage'.
I have the same numbers, I have every pinnacle opener, move and closer tracked since 01, while I havent systematically gone and looked at every one I have done generic comparisons and I have seen zero long term verifiable useful results. Sure they might lean or gamble on a game here or there but trying to actually pinpoint that game in so many is like finding a needle in a haystack.
