UFC

Expecting things to start slow as both are well aware of each others power and striking prowess. But I think once they get a feel for distance/power, things could turn up quickly. Believe that Garbrandt has the edge in cardio, power, speed. All a matter if he can stay composed. There is some worry that Font could outwork him to a decision win but do not expect this fight to go the distance anyway.
 
3-1 Font. Didn't expect this. Cody loses steam in the 2nd and is on backfoot all fight. Need to go old Cody and bang it out here
 
Font looked good but feels more like Cody just didnt show up. The whole performance was odd for him. Maybe the wrestling really sapped the cardio or maybe his drop to 125 makes it difficult for him to maintain pace.
 
Made some bad plays.

MMA
[69-73] +20.53
3* [10-8] +8.12

5/22/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175 L Closing Line: +115
1*Edmen Shahbazyan Wins Inside the Distance +250 L Closing Line: +200
0.5*Edmen Shahbazyan Wins by KO Round 1 +400 L Closing Line: +400
1*Parlay (Damir Ismagulov -650/Josh Culibao -250) -160 W
1*Does Not Go the Distance Algeo/Ramos +140 L Closing Line: +130
1*Over 1.5rds Garbrandt/Font -175 W Closing Line: -175
1*Cody Garbrandt +110 L Closing Line: +110
 
MMA
[69-73] +20.53
3* [10-8] +8.12

PENDING:

6/5/21
2*Tanner Boser -180
1*Santiago Ponzinibbio +120

6/12/21
3*Drew Dober -110
2*Matt Frevola -200
1*Demian Maia +225
1*Fares Ziam -110
1*Hakeem Dawodu +250

6/19/21
2*Chan Sung Jung -125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105

8/21/21
2*Paulo Costa +132

Future Event
3*Colby Covington +250 vs Usman

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145 W Closing Line: +170
3*Trevin Giles +135 W Closing Line: -115
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +300
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185 No Action
2*Gustavo Lopez +185 L Closing Line: +185

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140 L Closing Line: +110
1*Gillian Robertson +150 L Closing Line: +130
1*Tyron Woodley +221 L Closing Line: +160

4/2/21 Bellator
2*Patricio Freire -244 W Closing Line: -250
1*Jason Jackson +138 W Closing Line: +105

4/7/21 ONE
2*Eddie Alvarez -115 No Action Closing Line: -145

4/9/21 Bellator
1*Dan Moret +425 W Closing Line: +375
1*Adam Borics -102 W Closing Line: -110

4/10/21
3*Nina Ansaroff -110 L Closing Line: -130
2*Joe Solecki -190 W Closing Line: -240
2*Mateusz Gamrot -175 W Closing Line: -240
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145 L Closing Line: -150
1*Hunter Azure +125 L Closing Line: +160
1*Over 2.5 Rounds Marvin Vettori/Kevin Holland -135 W Closing Line: -135
1*Under 2.5 Rounds Mike Perry/Daniel Rodriguez +117 L Closing Line: +115

4/16/21
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120 L Closing Line: +170
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110 L
0.5*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +150 L
1*Phil Davis +149 L Closing Line: +150
0.5*Phil Davis +165 L
0.5*Phil Davis +170 L
0.5*Phil Davis by Decision +300 L Closing Line: +275
1*Desiree Yanez -110 L Closing Line: -120

4/17/21
2*Alexander Romanov +105 W Closing Line: -145
2*Austin Hubbard "Live Bet" -139 W
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220 L Closing Line: +215
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130 W Closing Line: +105
0.5*Luis Pena "Live Bet" -117 W
0.5*Al Hassan "Live Bet" +125 L

4/23/21 PFL
2*Sheymon Moraes +195 L Closing Line: +130
1*Marcin Held +350 W Closing Line: +325

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170 W Closing Line: +175
2*Brendan Allen -145 W Closing Line: -155
0.5*Brendan Allen Inside the Distance +125 W Closing Line: +130
1*Jimmy Crute -181 L Closing Line: -250
1*Kamaru Usman/Jorge Masvidal "Does Not Go The Distance" +155 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Natividad +145 L Closing Line: +180
1*Chris Weidman/Uriah Hall "Does Not Go The Distance" -120 W Closing Line: -125
1*Under 2.5rds Connelly/Sabatini +170 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5rds Oliveira/Brown +125 W Closing Line: +110

4/30/21 LFA
1*Cheyden Leialoha -135 W Closing Line: -165

5/1/21
2*Cody Stamann +220 L Closing Line: +235
2*Under 2.5rds Kai Kamaka/TJ Brown +170 L Closing Line: +150
1*Sean Strickland -220 W Closing Line: -245
1*Dominick Reyes +105 L Closing Line: -120
1*Randa Markos +143 L Closing Line: +135
1*Dustin Jacoby +123 Draw Closing Line: +105

5/7/21 Bellator
3*Sergio Pettis +160 W Closing Line: +175
1*Michael Page -200 W Closing Line: -360
1*Raufeon Stots -225 W Closing Line: -225

5/8/21
3*Carlston Harris +120 W Closing Line: -210
3*Ludovit Klein -150 L Closing Line: -250
2*Diego Ferreira +160 L Closing Line: +120
1*Neil Magny +195 W Closing Line: +145
1*Kyle Daukaus -145 L Closing Line: -150
1*Michelle Waterson +185 L Closing Line: +190
1*Does Not Go the Distance Cerrone/Morono +115 W Closing Line: +115
1*Under 4.5rds Waterson/Rodriguez +140 L Closing Line: +130

5/15/21
3*Mike Grundy -115 L Closing Line: -120
2.5*Andrea Lee +110 W Closing Line: +100
2*Katlyn Chookagian -135 W Closing Line: -125
1*Edson Barboza +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Edson Barboza/Shane Burgos Does Not Go the Distance +125 W Closing Line: +100
1*Michael Chandler +125 L Closing Line: +115
1*Michael Chandler +117 L Closing Line: +115
1*Michael Chandler Wins Inside the Distance +200 L Closing Line: +150
1*Under 2.5rds Michael Chandler/Charles Oliveira -140 W Closing Line: -175
0.5*Michael Chandler by Submission +1000 L Closing Line: +1200
1*Fight Does Not Go the Distance Kevin Aguilar/Tucker Lutz +155 L Closing Line: +135
1*Kevin Aguilar +105 L Closing Line: +120
1*Jacare Souza -115 L Closing Line: -135
1*Tony Ferguson +140 L Closing Line: +130

5/21/21 Bellator
1*Austin Vanderford by Decision +125 W Closing Line: +105

5/22/21
3*Edmen Shahbazyan +175 L Closing Line: +115
1*Edmen Shahbazyan Wins Inside the Distance +250 L Closing Line: +200
0.5*Edmen Shahbazyan Wins by KO Round 1 +400 L Closing Line: +400
1*Parlay (Damir Ismagulov -650/Josh Culibao -250) -160 W
1*Does Not Go the Distance Algeo/Ramos +140 L Closing Line: +130
1*Over 1.5rds Garbrandt/Font -175 W Closing Line: -175
1*Cody Garbrandt +110 L Closing Line: +110
 
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Thanks locked in -176 at FD. Most of the Colorado books still don't have a number on it for some reason.
Line continuing to drop from opener of -250. Don't understand the movement at all. May be an overreaction to Dusko's KO loss last time out or I am really missing the boat. Think he outclasses Rodrigues just about everywhere. Most likely will add a unit if it gets to -160
 
Line continuing to drop from opener of -250. Don't understand the movement at all. May be an overreaction to Dusko's KO loss last time out or I am really missing the boat. Think he outclasses Rodrigues just about everywhere. Most likely will add a unit if it gets to -160
Well let's hope you're right I just hit Wynn at -149.
 
Playing this card with a different strategy

MMA
[69-73] +20.53
3* [10-8] +8.12

PENDING:

6/5/21
2*Dusko Todorovic -190
1*Dusko Todorovic -125
2*Santiago Ponzinibbio +105

1*Santiago Ponzinibbio +120
2*Tanner Boser -180
1*Over 2.5 Rds Youssef Zalal/Sean Woodson -160
1*Sean Woodson by Decision +130
0.5*Youssef Zalal Wins by Submission +700


1*Under 2.5rds Roman Dolidze/Laureano Staropoli +150
0.5*Fight Does Not Go To Decision +115
0.5*Roman Dolidze By Submission +550
0.5*Laureano Staropoli by KO/TKO/DQ +575


0.5*Under 2.5rds Tom Breese/Antonio Arroyo -145
0.5*Tom Breese By Submission +575


0.5*Makwan Amirkhani By Submission +150
0.5*Makwan Amirkhani By Submission Rd1 +350


0.5*Alan Patrick By Decision +375

6/12/21
3*Drew Dober -110
2*Matt Frevola -200
1*Demian Maia +225
1*Fares Ziam -110
1*Hakeem Dawodu +250

6/19/21
2*Chan Sung Jung -125

6/26/21
1*Alexander Volkov +115

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105

8/21/21
2*Paulo Costa +132

Future Event
3*Colby Covington +250 vs Usman
 
Dusko Todorovic -190/-125 (74" reach) vs Gregory Rodrigues (75" reach)
Current line: Todorovic -140

I think this line is a result of recency bias. After opening at -250, this line got down to the the -120's and has no gone back to roughly -140. I am seeing alot of people writing about Dusko's glass chin and durability concerns. Prior to his KO loss to Punahele Soriano the man was 10-0. The narrative is based solely on his outing because he had never loss prior. Also it's not as if the way he loss was something surprising or that Dusko got exposed. He got KO'd by an extremely powerful puncher who blows his load in the 1st. Puna's path to victory was connecting big early or bust and he found the chin. "If Dusko can survive the first 2:30 and flurry of winging haymakers from Soriano, I see this fight being heavily in his favor." << quote from my last writeup on Dusko. Could his chin be shot after his first career KO? Maybe? I doubt it considering his age and lack of KO's prior.

How do the fighters compare? One similarity is both men like to fight with constant forward pressure. The pace created and the techniques thrown vary greatly though. Rodrigues plods forward like the terminator, throwing power shots. His chin remains on the center line and plays the game of take one to give one with regularity. Todorovic uses footwork to create angles, blasts his opponents at an elite rate, and uses head movement effectively. As I wrote last time, his reliance on his head movement is concerning because he prefers to fight with his hands down which leaves his chin in harms way, way too often.

Don't see a power advantage in this one as either man could end the fight early if they connect flush. I don't think Rodrigues is nearly the power threat Soriano is either and feel his win condition is the same. KO or bust. Rodrigues is also a large man for the division and has missed weight in the past. The UFC is asking him to make 185 twice in a span of two weeks. Rodrigues is a late replacement and has just come off winning the LFA championship on May 21. Could this take a toll on his cardio? Not to mention this is a massive step up in competition for him. As I have stated in earlier posts I do not see a whole lot of areas where I feel Rodrigues possesses an advantage in this one. He has a solid BJJ background but almost never grapples and people do escape from his top pressure (not close to likes of a Demian Maia, Dusko is a solid grappler in his own right). I think Dusko's pace is really going to throw Rodrigues rhythm off and force him to fight off the back foot. Take him to some deeper waters and finish him in the 2nd.
 
Santiago Ponzinibbio +120/+105 (73" reach) vs Miguel Baeza (74.5" reach)
Current line: Ponzinibbio +110

Again, recency bias. Prior to Ponz's KO Loss to Jingliang, his was the next in line for the strap. Riding a 7 fight win streak where he was outclassing opponents or dropping dudes cold. Not in the TKO fashion where the ref saves you from further harm. We are talking lights out Ngannou style. Then came a 3 year layoff where Ponz had surgery complications (bacterial infections) then contracting COVID which kept him out of the octagon for a very long time. In his return against Jingliang, Ponz was not getting outclassed but clearly did not look himself. Did not seem to be able to find the range effectively and his movement/timing looked to be a tad off. He got caught by a power puncher in the first round and that could happen to anyone. Ring rust? I think it applies to all men not named Dominick Cruz. Yet Ponz does not seem to have been granted that leniency by the masses despite the 3 year hiatus. I think the dramatic loss and being forgotten while being shelved has set up some nice value to side with Santiago.

Baeza passes the eyeball test with flying colors. He looks like a model, excellent athlete, has crisp striking, and quick on his feet. However, he has beat no one worth mentioning. From a purely offensive standpoint there are alot of things to like about Baeza, defensively is quite the opposite. Baeza is very hittable but he has gotten away with it by just being the far better athlete in most of his bouts. Old Matt Brown nearly finished him a year ago before getting clipped himself. I don't think Baeza will get the luxury to recover as Ponz has serious power in his hands. Baeza also has shown to slow some if the fight reaches the 3rd.

Both men like to attack the calves with regularity. Again this comes down to defense. Ponz tends to control this part of the fight. He sneaks in power leg shots at the end of his combinations and has a great ability to read the incoming kick. If there is one thing he did well vs Jingliang is check the kicks. If Ponz controls this aspect of the fight as I expect, this will limit the fleet footed Baeza's movement.

This all seems like too much too soon for Baeza. I think he is a high ceiling prospect but still has a ways to go imo. Ponz has fought the best in the world successfully before and am banking on him getting back to form after the lengthy layoff. Ponz by 3rd round KO.
 
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