Fezzik once proclaimed it cannot be beat because the early headfakes were eating up his bankroll.
Someone explain this to me.
Dodgers v. Rocks....today
Score 1st Inning.....+104 Y, -134 N Both teams.
Score 1st Inning +307Y, -464 N Rocks
Score 1st Inning +151Y, -202N Dodger
Do not get where the cumulative affect is in these #'s.
Feels reasonable cheap. perhaps not perfect but in the ball park that the 3 lines combined make sense. Can make a case it's slightly better to bet the +104 if you like score in 1st inning and bet the no one or both of the teams individually if you like no score in 1st but its not off by a ton unless i'm missing something.Someone explain this to me.
Dodgers v. Rocks....today
Score 1st Inning.....+104 Y, -134 N Both teams.
Score 1st Inning +307Y, -464 N Rocks
Score 1st Inning +151Y, -202N Dodger
Do not get where the cumulative affect is in these #'s.
To add to this breakdown that means to determine the best bet (best bet meaning best way to bet the props depending on the side you like) you multiply each teams chance of not scoring in 1st inn or .79 X .64 (since scoring chances or .21 and .36) to get a no score rate of .5056 meaning the 2 indivudually lines suggest that either team will score app 49.44% of the time where as the straight "either team to score prop" suggests they will score roughly 46% of the time. So like I said they arent completely in line but they are within striking distance but certainly an oppourtunity to cut the vig by picking the better of the options depending on what side of the prop you like.I think your first one is wrong, that should be odds there is a run scored, the over 0.5 for the inning number. Correct? If so that's implying
Rox score 21% of the time
Dodgers score 36% of the time
One of the two teams score 46% of the time
My math might be a little off, but just in general terms.
You would be indirectly adding vig by betting it your way. You would want to literally do thr opposite based on this example. I can see where you would look naked eye and feel that way but it is clearly better to bet the +104 on yes run in 1st inning than bet the +307 and +151. Remember Cheap the math doesnt lie.To me, if I'm betting yes, then it's each team, way better and if no, the both teams. Math wise or not, that's what puts the most $$ in my account, or takes the least out. I still don't see any correlation of one team to the other in such wide spreads.
To me, if I'm betting yes, then it's each team, way better and if no, the both teams. Math wise or not, that's what puts the most $$ in my account, or takes the least out. I still don't see any correlation of one team to the other in such wide spreads.
Fezzik still giving out MLB picks at pregame.com, its early, but so far he is 4-5-1, -7.08u
Always thought bookmakers only stayed open for bases to retain the customers for football. No two sided action in many baseball games. Not what they want
I remember the Barbary Coast in Vegas used a nickle line for the entire season back around 1995 or thereabouts.
They wrote a tremendous amount of business, but I believe they ended up a small loser.
It was a one year experiment.
Betting totals are way to beating MLB. Just have to follow BP use and starting pitching matchups
Some influential money must, especially on unders.Lineups and weather help, too.
Do you follow home plate umpires, BRAYDEN11?
Some influential money must, especially on unders.
Obviously MLB (like all sports is beatable)
The dime line certainly helps.......
I just bet the Dodgers +350 WSeries..........
Lineups and weather help, too.
Do you follow home plate umpires, BRAYDEN11?
Nothing wrong with betting full game against teams with bad bullpens also.It's no coincidence guys like Krackman only bet first 5. They understand negative variance.
But you better have the bankroll to absorb the higher vig/spread during the bad streaks.
What makes MLB the easiest sport to beat?
Don't think Sherwood would agree, -33 units.
2013
234-248-0 (+63.00)
2014
231-242-0 (+55.00)
2015
242-287-0 (+12.00)
2016
234-330-0 (-50.00)
2017
245-300-0 (+46.00)
2018
247-310-0 (+74.00)
2019
188-278-0 (-71.00)
2020
81-93-0 (+29.00)
2021
72-107-0 (-28.00)
What makes MLB the easiest sport to beat?
2 reasons: 1) stale stats- the season is so long you have to dig a bit to realize when the YTD stats are deceptive. That also happens in the NFL, but I think its easier to see in the NFL with the one game a week and extreme focus that sport gets. The other main reason is its such a sport of streaks.