Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

M

mighty maron

EOG Dedicated
The books all use the same tried and trite models that spit out totals in MLB. They probably do not embrace evolved states like FIP. By knowing the difference between the two, we will track the totals for Chris Young Starts from now til the end of the season. The premise is that that outstanding pitching that has saved him and only him can not continue




[TABLE]
<tbody>

Player

[TD="width: 86"]ERA[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]FIP[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]xFIP[/TD]


    

Felix Hernandez

2.02

2.04

2.45


Hisashi Iwakuma

2.95

3.14

2.84


Roenis Elias

4.54

4.29

3.94


Chris Young

3.15

4.95

5.37


</tbody>[/TABLE]


FIP is fielding independent pitching. It gives a truer sense on how the hurler performed outside of miracle catches and bad fielding. Most run pretty close to ERA but there are exceptions. Chris Young has a drastic difference between the two. Now if every other Mariner starter exhibited the same trend then the defense is that good. However this is not the case. The main differences between them are the % of out that are ground balls. At 22%, Chris lags behind the rest of the staff.

Contention: During the long season, such a number outside the norm will come back to the pack as the sample size increases. So Chris will let in more runs because the defense that saves him can not keep performing to that level.

Practice Totals on games which he pitches and especially opposition team totals will be too low. Bet the overs until the rest of the season.

He pitches today against LAA

So Over 8 for the game at -115
and LAA TT over 4 1/2 +105

GL

0-0
 
M

mighty maron

EOG Dedicated
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

This thread is too test theories....

With a 3.15 ERA for nine innings, three runs and two HR's in five innings is a decent start for this. However the LAA TT needed that ninth inning tying run to cash. Interesting and worth noting as we track this. Later in the thread we will expand to others that lead the league in greatest + and - difference between ERA and FIP.

2-0 +2.05 Units

Chris Young[TABLE="class: mod-data mlb-box, width: 100%"]
<thead style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">

[TH="width: 37%, align: left"]Pitchers[/TH]
[TH="width: 7%"]IP[/TH]
[TH="width: 6%"]H[/TH]
[TH="width: 6%"]R[/TH]
[TH="width: 6%"]ER[/TH]
[TH="width: 6%"]BB[/TH]
[TH="width: 6%"]SO[/TH]
[TH="width: 7%"]HR[/TH]
[TH="width: 12%"]PC-ST[/TH]
[TH="width: 7%"]ERA[/TH]


</thead><tbody style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; outline: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;">

[TD="align: left"]

C Young

[/TD]

6.0

10

3

3

0

7

2

99-69

3.22:cheers


</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
A

Apple

Banned
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

Everybody talking about fading Chris young...

Hope the value isn't gone..
 
M

mighty maron

EOG Dedicated
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

Will update thread on WED.
 
D

Discreet Cat

EOG Dedicated
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

I like Chris Young a lot, at least for his home starts. Think he's still being undervalued, especially in terms of totals. As i've said in EOG many times already this year, this is a smart pitcher who knows exactly what he is trying to accomplish (induce fly balls). And he's very successful at it. No reason why that shouldn't continue.

PS - This is exactly why his BABIP is extremely low, and also why it's not nearly as much of a fluke as most people like to think it is.
 
M

mighty maron

EOG Dedicated
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

Discreet Cat said:
I like Chris Young a lot, at least for his home starts. Think he's still being undervalued, especially in terms of totals. As i've said in EOG many times already this year, this is a smart pitcher who knows exactly what he is trying to accomplish (induce fly balls). And he's very successful at it. No reason why that shouldn't continue.

PS - This is exactly why his BABIP is extremely low, and also why it's not nearly as much of a fluke as most people like to think it is.
Click to expand...

Im not saying that he is a bad pitcher. I noticed that difference in between his ERA and FIP. The fielding rescues him more than any other pitcher in the league according to the stat. I think that this corrects itself because no other Seattle pitcher gets the love he does with the FIP difference.


I will be looking at pitchers in the opposite direction as well.

As per usual discreet I appreciate any input you have...

test theory in work with some money on it to make it interesting
 
Sharp Square

Sharp Square

EOG Addicted
Re: Why Chris Young (Seattle) totals will be up to a run low for each of his remaining starts

Great thread going guys 12io4j2w90
 
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