Big news - that IHEM model that predicts the pandemic was just updated again - it drastically reduced the expected death toll again - down to 60K.
Very, very good news, lets hope it's right, but it means everything that's been done has been misguided. Granted some stuff needed to happen, but did the economy really need to be slammed?
Its a bit more nuanced then that right?
I mean the President's top people were talking about this line of thinking almost a month ago
“The way you get ahead of it is that, as I try to explain to people, that I want people to assume that ... we are overreacting because if it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing,” -Fauci
If we buy into the model's results as we plug in the data, including the social distancing assumptions. we also have to buy into the same model that shows over 2 million deaths without the mitigation techniques correct?
you can't just pick and choose what results you emphasize.
to put it into sports terms
its kind of like a NFC East team getting ready to face Lawrence Taylor. They put in an extensive amount of time and in depth schemes to double and triple team and Not Let LT kill their QB and shut them down, the last game they played him the previous season he had 2 sacks, 2 tipped passes, 3 QB hits and 5 hurries.
with their new Offensive coordinator and Line coach, they key on LT and Hold him to zero sacks and 2 QB hurries. They lose by a FG in last secs though
do they look at the results and say, well that was foolish, we spent too much time and energy on worrying about LT.
Do you think in their 2nd matchup on the road against the Giants they will decide to just use their typical blocking schemes vs LT?