Fantasy Baseball News 2007

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL Pitching Preview

I'll be moving on to a true notes format next week. First, here's a look at the NL's pitching depth charts and suggestions on which arms to target and which to avoid. Editor's Note:
Don't forget that more in-depth analysis, along with Rankings, Dollar Values, Cheat Sheets, Sleepers, Busts and over 1000 Players Profiled are found in our Online Draft Guide. It's updated in real-time as we report the news. Click here to check it out.

Also thousands of other fantasy baseball fanatics are talking about how to prepare for their fantasy baseball drafts in the Rotoworld forums.

National League notes

Arizona
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Livan Hernandez
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings
6. Enrique Gonzalez
7. Dana Eveland
8. Dustin Nippert
9. Edgar Gonzalez

1. Jose Valverde
2. Tony Pena
3. Jorge Julio
4. Brandon Medders
5. Micah Owings
6. Brandon Lyon
7. Juan Cruz

The Big Unit has a far better chance of reemerging as a top-20 fantasy starter now that he's back in the NL. He's still not likely to excel in ERA, but his WHIP and strikeout rate will be strong and he'll get better run support than he did in 2004, when the Arizona offense cost him a Cy Young Award. ? Hernandez and Davis are strictly $1 starters in my book. Chase Field will punish each.

I don't have any big favorites from the fifth-starter competition. Cruz would have been the biggest sleeper in the bunch, but he wasn't given a shot to win the job. Edgar Gonzalez is helped by being out of options, but the Diamondbacks could just keep him initially and then try to send him through waivers when Johnson returns in mid-April. I think Eveland has the best chance of any of them of amassing a little value in NL-only leagues.

Valverde will have the closer's role all to himself to begin the year, but despite his talent, he doesn't have the same kind of margin for error that most do. The Diamondbacks would love to see Pena step up and become the top setup man and No. 1 alternative to Valverde. Julio would also be in the mix if he isn't traded prior to Opening Day.

Atlanta
1. John Smoltz
2. Tim Hudson
3. Chuck James
4. Mike Hampton
5. Mark Redman
6. Lance Cormier
7. Kyle Davies
8. Matt Harrison

1. Bob Wickman
2. Mike Gonzalez
3. Rafael Soriano

I'm a little higher on Hudson than I was entering the spring, but James looks like the Braves' No. 2 starter for fantasy purposes. He's not going to give up many groundball singles, allowing him to maintain a strong WHIP, and he should strike out about 150 batters. He's also a pretty good bet to stay healthy. He's a fine late-round pick in mixed leagues.

Hampton was only a $2 pitcher before suffering a strained oblique that will cost him the first month. He might match James in ERA, but he'll be a liability in WHIP and he'll barely strike out a batter every other inning. ? It looks like the Braves will go with Redman and Cormier at the back of the rotation while Hampton is out, with Davies returning to Triple-A. Cormier has had a terrific spring, but I have a hard time believing in a guy with a 130/107 K/BB ratio in 198 1/3 innings as a major leaguer. I prefer Redman as a fifth or sixth starter in NL-only leagues.

Chicago
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller
6. Angel Guzman
7. Mark Prior
8. Sean Marshall

1. Ryan Dempster
2. Kerry Wood
3. Bob Howry
4. Michael Wuertz

Lilly and Hill both look like $10 pitchers. Lilly should have the edge in ERA and WHIP, with Hill making up the difference in strikeouts. He's capable of fanning 200 batters in his first full season. ? With an 87 mph fastball and little command of his breaking stuff, Prior looked nothing like a major league pitcher in his first couple of starts of the spring. The arm strength is supposed to be coming back, as his radar gun readings have been a little better each time out. If he can avoid any setbacks, maybe he'll be ready to join the rotation a month into the season. However, it's at least as likely that he'll be hurt again by then.

I like Guzman as a sleeper for the final three or four months. Miller is likely to open the season as the Cubs' fifth starter, but he's not very interesting. I'd hesitate to spend a buck on Miller or Marquis.

There didn't seem to be any chance of Dempster losing his job this spring even before Wood's latest misstep. Wood figures to be the better pitcher when healthy, but even if he can stay off the DL, it could be months before he turns himself into an option in the closer's role. It'd probably be best to stay away from the entire situation.

Cincinnati
1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Eric Milton
5. Matt Belisle
6. Kirk Saarloos
7. Paul Wilson
8. Elizardo Ramirez
9. Homer Bailey

1. David Weathers
2. Mike Stanton
3. Todd Coffey
4. Dustin Hermanson
5. Bill Bray
6. Gary Majewski

Arroyo can't possibly be quite as outstanding in his second year back in the NL, but that he's as good of a bet as anyone to lead the league in innings will give him plenty of opportunities for wins and strikeouts. I give him a $2 edge over Harang. ? Leaving Bailey out of the equation, Lohse is the most interesting of the rest of the Reds' potential starters. He was never able to put things together for the Twins and he was far short of stellar after being picked up by Cincinnati last year, but he's capable of posting an ERA in the low-4.00s and striking out 140 batters. He could supply $6-$8 in value for a $1-$2 investment.

Bailey failed to impress with his command this spring, but he should be up for good by June 1. None of the Reds' fifth-starter candidates figure to stand in the way once he proves he's ready.

Coffey is complicating the Reds' closer situation with an 8/1 K/BB ratio in six scoreless innings this spring, and Hermanson has tossed three perfect innings so far despite topping out at 88 mph. I'd gamble a buck or two on either of them before investing in Weathers or Stanton. Those two are due to share closing duties at the beginning of the season, with Weathers likely getting most of the opportunities.

Colorado
1. Aaron Cook
2. Jeff Francis
3. Rodrigo Lopez
4. Josh Fogg
5. Jason Hirsh
6. Byung-Hyun Kim
7. Brian Lawrence
8. Ubaldo Jimenez

1. Brian Fuentes
2. Ramon Ramirez
3. Manny Corpas
4. LaTroy Hawkins
5. Taylor Buchholz
6. Jeremy Affeldt
7. Juan Morillo

Cook is a $1 option in 4x4 leagues, but Francis is the only Rockies starter worthy of much consideration in strikeout leagues. I have him at $4. ? Kim appears likely to be elsewhere on Opening Day, which could make him more interesting. It's for the best as long as it means Hirsh will open the season in the rotation. ? Lawrence, who missed all of last season after shoulder surgery, could be a possibility to join the rotation by May 1.

I'm listing a bunch of relievers here just in case Fuentes is dealt at midseason. He'll be due north of $5 million in 2008, and the Rockies may decide that's money better spent on locking up young hitters. ? While the Rockies want LaTroy Hawkins to be their eighth-inning guy in front of Fuentes, his history could result in the club turning elsewhere should Fuentes go. Ramirez looks like the top candidate based on last year's numbers, but I don't expect him to keep it up. Corpas and Buchholz could be better options by the time July comes around, so it's worth keeping tabs on both as the season progresses. Morillo, who will open the year in Triple-A, is the best bet in the organization to develop into a long-term closer.

Florida
1. Dontrelle Willis
2. Josh Johnson
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Scott Olsen
5. Ricky Nolasco
6. Sergio Mitre
7. Yusmeiro Petit
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]

1. Taylor Tankersley
2. Kevin Gregg
3. Matt Lindstrom
4. Henry Owens
5. Randy Messenger
6. Ricky Nolasco
7. Nate Field
8. Renyel Pinto
9. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]
10. Felix Rodriguez

The scramble for the closer's role in Florida should only intensify with Tankersley likely to return from a sore shoulder before the end of the week. Lindstrom and Owens, the hard-throwing right-handers acquired from the Mets in the Jason Vargas trade, have combined to give up one run in 16 1/3 innings, and Gregg, who looked to be the top candidate for saves when Tankersley went down, has pitched well in his last three appearances to lower his ERA to 2.45. I still have Tankersley ranked highest of the quartet, though he's perhaps the worst bet for April saves. I'd go to $9 or $10 for him. Gregg comes in a couple of dollars lower. Lindstrom and Owens are weaker picks. Both have strong minor league track records, but neither has a top-notch second pitch to pair with a very good fastball. You can check back in a week, but right now, I'd say each is only worth $1-$2.

Johnson will miss the first two months with a nerve problem in his elbow, otherwise Nolasco might be the favorite for saves in the Florida pen right now. Instead, Nolasco is certain to enter the season as the Marlins' fourth starter. I doubt he'll go into the pen later this year, but since it can't be ruled out, he's an even stronger sleeper in NL-only leagues. I like him as a $3-$4 pick.

Sanchez has eased concerns about his shoulder with three straight strong outings, but I still don't like his chances of holding up for 200 innings. Olsen is the better choice in my opinion. He'd be a very good late-round selection in mixed leagues. ? Neither fifth-starter candidate figures to have much value. Mitre appears likely to get the nod over Petit.

Houston
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Jason Jennings
3. Woody Williams
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Fernando Nieve
6. Chris Sampson
7. Matt Albers
8. Brian Moehler

1. Brad Lidge
2. Dan Wheeler
3. Chad Qualls

And I was so hoping I was wrong when I originally penciled in Rodriguez as the No. 4 starter when I was making depth charts for the magazine in early January. ? While I have serious concerns about his elbow, Nieve is the most interesting of the Astros' starters beyond the top three. I wouldn't pencil him in for even 150 innings, but he could compile an ERA under 4.00 while healthy. ? Sampson should probably be the Astros' fifth starter. He's not going to excite but he's far more likely than Rodriguez to give a team five or six solid innings each time out. He'd be a nice $1 pick if he somehow ends up with the job. He'll probably have to wait until May or June.

While he says he's healthy, Lidge has been doing little but grooving fastballs and hanging sliders since March began. I was confident he'd bounce back and reestablish himself as a top-10 closer this year, but I'm not nearly as optimistic now. Wheeler is next in line for saves and would be a smart target in all formats.

Los Angeles
1. Derek Lowe
2. Randy Wolf
3. Jason Schmidt
4. Brad Penny
5. Mark Hendrickson
6. Hong-Chih Kuo
7. Brett Tomko
8. Chad Billingsley

1. Takashi Saito
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Brett Tomko
4. Yhency Brazoban
5. Chad Billingsley
6. Chin-Hui Tsao

Schmidt is my No. 10 overall starter, ranking him well ahead of Lowe, Penny and Wolf. Wolf could be the best value pick of the lesser three. He's always had a nice strikeout rate for a left-hander, and getting out of Philadelphia should result in a solid ERA and WHIP in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.

I hate the Dodgers' decision to stick Billingsley in the pen, but at least they didn't do it just to hand one of the veterans the final spot in the rotation. Kuo still had a very good chance of opening the season as the club's fifth starter until an ugly showing in his last appearance. Now it's hard to tell what will happen. Hendrickson is likely a better option than Tomko, but he remains a strong candidate to be dealt. I like Kuo as a $6-$8 pick if he can regain command of his fastball and secure a spot, but that's probably not going to happen in time for the start of the year. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, Hendrickson would be a $1-$2 sleeper if's the choice. I don't think he'd have value elsewhere.

Saito doesn't have to rack up the same kind of numbers he did last year in order to remain a fair closer, but Broxton will eventually prove to be the Dodgers' best reliever. While there's no guarantee that will get into the closer's role before the end of my season, he's my No. 1 fantasy setup man in the NL.

Milwaukee
1. Ben Sheets
2. Jeff Suppan
3. Chris Capuano
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas
6. Carlos Villanueva
7. Zach Jackson
8. Yovani Gallardo

1. Francisco Cordero
2. Derrick Turnbow
3. Jose Capellan

The Brewers thought Suppan was worth $42 million, but I have him sixth among the club's starters in my rankings. Villanueva is a strong $1 pick even though he'll be the odd man out on Opening Day, and Vargas also has a better chance than Suppan of amassing value in Milwaukee. ? Bush was a far better pick a year ago when many NL owners still hadn't heard of him. I don't see his outstanding WHIP as a sign that a true breakthrough is coming this year. He'll likely be solid once again, and I do have him at $9. Still, he's not someone I'd pick in a shallow mixed league.

Turnbow's strong spring will get him involved in some more trade rumors, but the Brewers are probably going to keep him and hope he can form a dominant pairing with Cordero at the end of games. Cordero's job should be safe either way, but if Turnbow can bounce back, he'll be a closer again in 2008. That makes him pretty intriguing in keeper leagues.

New York
1. Tom Glavine
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Orlando Hernandez
4. John Maine
5. Oliver Perez
6. Mike Pelfrey
7. Chan Ho Park
8. Jorge Sosa
9. Jason Vargas
10. Aaron Sele
11. Philip Humber
188. Aaron Heilman

1. Billy Wagner
2. Duaner Sanchez
3. Aaron Heilman

As the only Met other than Glavine likely to go 190-200 innings, Maine looks like a solid pick. He won't excel in any category, but his WHIP should be solid and he'll probably post an ERA in the low-4.00s, especially if manager Willie Randolph is smart enough to make sure Endy Chavez is in the outfield every time he pitches.

I have Perez at $5, but he's the one pitcher on the team capable of a $15 season. I have a hard time imagining him returning to 2004 form all at once, but the upside is still there for a 15-win, 200-strikeout season. I project him at 12 wins, a 4.24 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 174 innings. ? Pelfrey would also come in at about $5 if he gets named the Mets' fifth starter. He should be in the lead with both Park and Sele struggling. Of course, a late acquisition is a possibility.

Philadelphia
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL]
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Brett Myers
4. Cole Hamels
5. Adam Eaton
6. Jon Lieber
7. Justin Germano
8. Eude Brito

1. Tom Gordon
2. Ryan Madson
3. Antonio Alfonseca
4. Geoff Geary
5. Joe Bisenius

I'm still working under the assumption that the Phillies will get an offer worth taking for Jon Lieber prior to Opening Day. If that doesn't happen, Eaton appears to be likeliest candidate for the pen. However, he is not going to be the setup man for Gordon the Phillies desire.

Though he'll apparently lose out on the Opening Day start to Garcia, Myers is the Phillies' ace. He's my No. 9 NL starter, with Hamels coming in at No. 14 and Garcia at No. 19. Hamels has the numbers of a top-10 guy, but his history of arm problems warrants a great deal of caution. I worry about Garcia's velocity, but he's smart enough to keep NL hitters off balance in his first year in the league and he'll probably throw about 220 innings even if his shoulder bothers him at times.

Madson is the closest thing the Phillies currently have to an alternative to Gordon. Geary might be at least as good of a stopgap, but his subpar fastball means the team won't consider him unless it has to. Bisenius could be ready to occupy a setup role by midseason and is a name to know for 2008 and beyond.

Pittsburgh
1. Zach Duke
2. Ian Snell
3. Paul Maholm
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Tony Armas Jr.
6. Shawn Chacon
7. Shane Youman
8. Marty McLeary
9. Sean Burnett
10. Yoslan Herrera

1. Salomon Torres
2. Matt Capps
3. Dan Kolb
4. Josh Sharpless
5. Bryan Bullington

I'm not as high on Snell as some, but he's the best bet of the Pirates' starters for 2007, if for no other reason than that he'll notch 30-40 more strikeouts than Duke. In a 4x4 league, I have them right about even. ? Gorzelanny's poor spring has made him a risky pick, but he'd still be nice to have at $2-$3. Possessing the best stuff of the Pirates' young left-handers, he's capable of a sub-4.00 ERA and 150 strikeouts this year. The big reason I don't suggest going higher is that I don't trust his elbow.

Armas seems likely to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, which probably means that Chacon will get traded or hit the waiver wire at the end of the spring. Armas has barely a fraction of the upside he once did, so he's a $1 pick at best. I like Chacon to outpitch him this year, assuming that he remains in the National League.

Even if Torres is the club's best reliever, his ability to go 90 innings would probably make him more valuable to the Pirates as a setup guy. Maybe management will eventually realize it and turn to Capps in the closer's role. It's more likely to happen in 2008, though.

St. Louis
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Braden Looper
6. Ryan Franklin
7. Chris Narveson
8. Brad Thompson

1. Jason Isringhausen
2. Braden Looper
3. Russ Springer
4. Brad Thompson
5. Tyler Johnson

The Cardinals didn't let Josh Kinney's season-ending elbow injury sway they from putting Wainwright and Looper into the rotation. I still think Looper will rejoin the bullpen eventually, perhaps putting Franklin into the rotation, but it's unlikely to happen in April and May, assuming that Isringhausen can stay healthy in the closer's role.

Wainwright's very impressive spring has caused me to bump him up not far south of Reyes in the rankings. I think Reyes' stronger WHIP will be the biggest difference between the two. Both seem pretty likely to stay healthy, with Wainwright probably the better bet to go 200 innings. They each should finish with right around 150 strikeouts. Reyes, especially, is a nice late-round option in mixed leagues. ? Wells hasn't shown quite enough this spring to get the same kind of boost Wainwright did. A respectable ERA is likely, but he's going to be a liability in WHIP and his failure to work deep into games will likely cost him victories.

San Diego
1. Jake Peavy
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]
3. Greg Maddux
4. Clay Hensley
5. David Wells
6. Mike Thompson
7. Tim Stauffer
8. Shawn Estes

1. Trevor Hoffman
2. Scott Linebrink
3. Cla Meredith

Thanks to Petco's helping hand, the Padres have the NL's best rotation for fantasy purposes. I give Peavy an edge over Zambrano, Oswalt and Webb, rating him as the league's No. 2 starting pitcher behind Carpenter. The only thing keeping Young out of the top 10 is his inability to get quick outs. As a six-inning guy, he's likely to fall short of 200 innings and 170 strikeouts. Still, he's a solid enough choice. Maddux steady decline in the rankings has come to a halt, and I have him at $11, $2 higher than last year. Hensley is another who will be solid in each category, giving him considerable value in NL-only leagues, and Wells' tough spring to date won't prevent me from recommending him at up to $5-$6.

Hoffman has also had a lousy March, but since his shoulder is fine, it's of no concern. Linebrink is a solid pick because of the possibility that he'll be traded to a team that will use him as a closer. However, he'll probably have to wait until 2008 to get his chance.

San Francisco
1. Barry Zito
2. Matt Cain
3. Noah Lowry
4. Matt Morris
5. Russ Ortiz
6. Jonathan Sanchez
7. Brad Hennessey
8. Tim Lincecum

1. Armando Benitez
2. Brian Wilson
3. Tim Lincecum

Zito makes up much of the gap with an extra 40 innings in the projections, but Cain is my top choice among Giants pitchers, coming in 11th among NL starters. He should be good for an ERA right around 3.50 and eight strikeouts per nine innings. I worry some about his arm, but that he got through last year without incident was a very encouraging development. ? The Giants' other starters don't offer much. Lowry will have some value, but he'll likely go for too much in leagues for the second year in a row. Morris appears done as more than a No. 4 starter, and even if Ortiz pulls off a successful comeback, his WHIP and strikeout rate will leave him with little fantasy value.

With six strikeouts in four scoreless innings this spring, Benitez suddenly seems set to open the season in the closer's role for the Giants. Wilson has also put together a pretty good showing following an outstanding stint in the Puerto Rican League over the winter, and the possibility of Benitez getting hurt again makes him worth up to $8. Lincecum could also be an option in the closer's role should Benitez and Wilson falter, but it'd be better for everyone if he's instead broken in as a starter in July or August.

Washington
1. John Patterson
2. Shawn Hill
3. Michael O'Connor
4. Jason Simontacchi
5. Jerome Williams
6. Tim Redding
7. Matt Chico
8. Brandon Claussen
9. Levale Speigner
10. Jason Bergmann
11. Joel Hanrahan

1. Chad Cordero
2. Jon Rauch
3. Luis Ayala
4. Ryan Wagner

O'Connor and Claussen will both miss the first couple of months as they recover from elbow and shoulder surgeries, respectively, but they'll likely get added to the rotation later on. In the meantime, the Nationals appear set to go with a front three of Patterson, Hill and Simontacchi. Hill could be solid enough if he can just remain healthy, but he has little in the way of fantasy upside. Simontacchi will be around primarily to eat innings until someone better comes along. There's just no one here besides Patterson worthy of even a $1 investment right now.

Rauch is likely to have first dibs on the closer's role should Cordero get traded this spring. Still, there's the chance the Nationals could move both if they're offered enough talent in return. That'd bring Wagner into the picture. If he gets off to a good start, he'd be someone to consider picking up in NL-only leagues.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Dollar Picks and Endgamers
Whether it's intended or not, most of us end up needing to fill a few spots on our fantasy roster for the bare minimum - $1. Or perhaps you're searching through the dregs to fill the last few spots in your snake draft. To help you get through that phase with some positive value, I've compiled my favorite endgame choices.

Greg Maddux ? The Professor keeps on piling up innings, double digit wins, and low WHIPs, but he just doesn't excite fantasy owners. He's smart to move to an NL pitchers' park; his moderate success should continue. Everyone will jump at guys like Scott Olsen but Mad Dog could be just as valuable without the hype.

Ian Snell ? You can snag Snell at the end of a mixed league draft or auction. Outside of Pittsburgh, Pirates don't get much fantasy respect. (Maybe they don't in Pittsburgh, either?I've never done a draft there). Anyway, Snell could provide an ERA around 4 with 170 cheap strikeouts. He could tack on 11-13 wins even for a shaky ballclub.

Jamie Shields ? As a rookie, Shields posted a strong 2.7 K/BB in the AL East. Not bad for a first try. He could be worth a couple of bucks if he wins 12 games with an ERA around 4. He won't be a buck in AL-only, but could make for a nice value buy for strikeouts.

Hong-Chih Kuo ? A veteran of two elbow surgeries, Kuo brings plenty of risk. Still, the Dodgers will find a way to work him in whether as a bullpen or rotation weapon. My money's on the rotation somehow. He could strike out a batter per inning and dominate despite a high walk rate. A quality risk/reward pick.

Shane Victorino ? The Flyin' Hawaiin is one of my favorite endgame choices. A late bloomer, Victorino could be a four-category player batting second for the Phils. He's added muscle, which could lead to 15 HR. He's got Davey Lopes teaching him to steal 20+ bags. He makes frequent contact for a possible .300 average. There's too much to like here not to spend a buck or two.

Jonny Gomes ? Last April, Gomes hit 11 HR and knocked in 23. He seemed on the fast track to a 35 HR season for the D-Rays. However, his shoulder started bothering him in May and he ended up needing surgery. Fully recovered, he's in great shape even though he's having a lackluster spring. While he won't give you average, Gomes could still hit 30 bombs for a buck investment.

Akinori Iwamura ? Jonny's teammate Iwamura is getting no respect in a very deep 3B field. He also may be overshadowed by some pitcher on the Red Sox who also came over from Japan. Kaz Ishii was it? Iwamura is quietly aiming to win Rookie of the Year, and he could sneak in a 20/20 season. He actually said he was shooting for 40 stolen bases. He'll be especially useful if he gains 2B qualification.

David DeJesus ? DeJesus isn't doing anything this spring, but his job as the Royals' center fielder and leadoff man remains secure. He's got a little more punch behind him to drive him in, so now he just needs to remain healthy. Last year's 491 at-bats were a career high. DeJesus isn't flashy but he could provide a .300 average and 90 runs. I'm not too worried about Joey Gathright stealing his job.

Terrmel Sledge ? Sledge is facing the best opportunity of his career, a chance to lead off for the Padres against righthanders. He slugged .583 in Triple A last year, and may reach double digits in steals in '07. That means 15/15 potential plus a decent run total. He's not flashy, but most likely calling out the name "Terrmel Sledge" will not result in a counterbid.

Matt Murton ? The Big Murt is a Cliff Floyd injury away from having his breakout season. He had a very strong second half: .319/.390/.522 in 207 at-bats. That's a .911 OPS. His high contact skills make a .300 average likely, and he could hit 20 home runs given the playing time. Murton might have a little extra value in H2H, as you can spot him in when you know he's going to play.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ? The cheap third basemen keep coming. Kouz is being mentioned as a ROY candidate in some circles; he's done nothing but hit since High Class A ball. Sure, he'll be 26, but that might mean he's more polished. .280-25-90 is entirely within reach, but your league-mates will probably go after Eric Chavez, Joe Crede, and Hank Blalock first.

Wilson Betemit ? Though he's not hitting this spring, Betemit will still have a full-time shot as the Dodgers' third baseman. Conveniently, he qualifies at shortstop with 18 games played there in '06. His legitimate 25 HR power does not get enough respect.

Scott Hairston ? Hairston had a respectable rookie season as Arizona's second baseman in 2004, slugging .442. After that, ill-timed injuries and questionable signings by the Diamondbacks impeded his progress. He'll be 27 in 2007 and has demolished Triple A pitching for three years now. It's time to unleash this 25 HR threat as a full-time left fielder, but he's just a bench player for the D'Backs now. Josh Byrnes will see if he gets the right trade offer for Hairston; otherwise he'll continue to wait. More of an NL-only endgamer.

Mark Ellis ? A year ago, Ellis was one of my favorite sleepers. I overdid it then, though Ellis continued to show second half promise. He could hit .290 with 15 homers if he puts two good halves together, so consider him for a bargain middle infielder.

Jay Gibbons ? Unhealthy guys don't usually post 550 at-bat seasons, so consider this a long shot. Gibbons continues to make strong contact and flash 30 HR potential when he's on the field. He'll be squeezed for playing time in Baltimore but is worth the gamble.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4768"]Ryan Braun[/URL] ? In a non-keeper league, Braun will be overlooked. He mashed Spring Training home runs while playing subpar third base defense, ultimately leading to his demotion. The Brewers still don't have much at third base, so he'll be up by May if he can flash passable glovework. Braun is one of the speedier 3Bs out there, making a 15/15 season reasonable.

Mike MacDougal ? Bobby Jenks didn't look good last spring either so it's best not to overreact. Still, MacDougal is The Man for saves in Chicago if Jenks is hurt or ineffective. Ozzie Guillen won't be shy about making the switch if he needs to. MacDougal is no picture of health, but he's been effective over the last two seasons. He's become a groundball machine.

Ted Lilly - Not unlike Rich Hill, Lilly is a flyball lefty in Wrigley Field. If the usual AL to NL exchange rate applies, Lilly should fare well in Chicago. He could get his walk rate back down around 3 per nine and keep the Ks over 8 per nine. A good source of 170 whiffs.

Zack Greinke ? Greinke is battling Brian Bannister for the Royals' fifth starter spot. A poor April by Jorge de la Rosa could make it a moot point. Greinke is outpitching Bannister and has much more upside. He still owns the skills we saw in 2004 (3.8 K/BB).

 

[UofM2003]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

thanks for the projected lineups, Hache. Been looking for that list, but somehow could not find it...took a quick glance, but the pirates are fucking crazy. How do you bat your best player (Bay) 5th?? Goddamn, no wonder they suck ass...

Also, anything like an EOG fantasy baseball league going on?

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

thanks for the projected lineups, Hache. Been looking for that list, but somehow could not find it...took a quick glance, but the pirates are fucking crazy. How do you bat your best player (Bay) 5th?? Goddamn, no wonder they suck ass...

Also, anything like an EOG fantasy baseball league going on?

Your welcome UofM

I'm not sure if the 1st eog Fantasy Baseball league is filled yet, will have to check with Dirty.

I'll ask him to reply in here........... :cheers

 

[UofM2003]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

good deal, thanks hache

 

[dirty]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

email me dirty@eog.com

I will get you a invite...

 

[UofM2003]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

sent...thanks, dirty

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL-Only Sleepers www.eog.com www.eogcontests.com www.fantasysportspicks.com www.sportspickwinners.com www.therx.ws www.therx.info
Last week I covered my favorite AL-only sleepers, so today I'll tackle the NL-only guys. Before I get to the good stuff though, a couple quick notes. First, it's important to remember that AL- and NL-only leagues are much different than mixed leagues in terms of the talent available, which obviously leads to lesser players being drafted. Because of that I've made sure that the players listed below are legitimate sleepers, as opposed to high-upside guys who everyone has ranked near the top of their cheat sheets anyway (which is the type of player I've seen listed as supposed AL- and NL-only "sleepers" elsewhere).
The Player's Paradise
The must-have Rotoworld Online Draft Guide has a tremendous amount of analysis and customizable rankings to prepare you for whatever type of league you're drafting in, including a lengthy article from me profiling my favorite mixed-league sleepers. I'm confident that a lot of the guys on that list will have big seasons. With that said, while identifying Felipe Lopez, Rich Hill, and Randy Johnson as high-upside sleepers in mixed leagues is valuable, it doesn't do much good in NL-only leagues where those guys are still early-round picks.

In other words, don't expect any big names below, because these are true NL-only sleepers ?

Jeff Baker (OF, Colorado Rockies) ? Baker figures to open the season in a platoon with Brad Hawpe, getting at-bats primarily against left-handed pitching, but has been groomed as a quasi-utility man by the Rockies. He's an injury away from significant playing time, but that injury could come from any of the four corner spots and he has the offensive potential to take advantage if the opportunity presents itself.

Chris Burke (2B/OF, Houston Astros) ? After putting up solid numbers in a utility role for his first two seasons, Burke now gets a chance to be the Astros' everyday center fielder. He's not flashy, but double-digit homers and 15-20 steals is a reasonable estimate if he can hold onto the job all year. His fantasy value gets a nice boost from being second-base eligible.

Scott Hairston (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks) ? For whatever reason the Diamondbacks have been very hesitant to give Hairston a shot at regular at-bats despite consistently outstanding minor-league numbers, but Carlos Quentin's shoulder injury finally opens the door for him to get in the lineup. Quentin is expected to be back relatively soon, which means Hairston will have to hit well right away to take advantage, but he's capable of 20-25 homers over 500 at-bats.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3875"]Corey Hart[/URL] (OF, Milwaukee Brewers) ? Undrafted in most mixed leagues and available very late in the bulk of NL-only leagues, Hart is one of my absolute favorite sleepers this year. He has the power-speed combination to put up a 20-20 season and should get 500 at-bats from a Brewers team that has said all the right things about giving him an everyday spot in the lineup.

Dustin Hermanson (RP, Cincinnati Reds) ? I wouldn't bet on Hermanson being particularly effective coming back from what was essentially a lost season and I'd gladly bet on him not lasting the entire year without breaking down physically, but the Reds seem willing to let him take a shot at closing games early. Given how hard saves are to come by in NL-only leagues, simply stumbling into a half-dozen of them in April would make him well worth a pick.

Chris Iannetta (C, Colorado Rockies) ? Iannetta hit .336 with a .567 slugging percentage between Double-A and Triple-A last year before holding his own in a late-season stint with the Rockies. He'll enter the season as Colorado's starter behind the plate and has a minor-league track record that suggests he can put up elite offensive numbers for the position thanks to a little help from Coors Field.

Geoff Jenkins (OF, Milwaukee Brewers) ? Jenkins' 2006 season was viewed by many as sign that he's in a rapid decline, but in reality massive struggles against left-handed pitching simply dragged his overall numbers down. Jenkins batted .306 with 15 homers and 63 RBIs in 386 at-bats against right-handed pitchers and should be used almost exclusively against righties this season thanks to Milwaukee's crowded outfield.

Kelly Johnson (2B, Atlanta Braves) ? An infielder-turned-outfielder who's back in the infield at second base after missing all of last season following Tommy John surgery, Johnson has had a strong grip on the starting job all spring. He held his own with the Braves in 2005, posting a .731 OPS with nine homers in 87 games, and should be good for a nice batting average, 12-15 homers, and 8-10 steals over a full season.

Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B, San Diego Padres) ? Moving from Cleveland to San Diego means playing in the pitcher's haven that is Petco Park, but more importantly the Padres will give Kouzmanoff a chance to claim the everyday job at third base. His modest home-run power will be further muted by the ballpark, but Kouzmanoff's .332 batting average in 349 career minor-league games is too much to ignore from someone who should get plenty of at-bats.

Nook Logan (OF, Washington Nationals) ? Logan won't be worth much to the Nationals, but his top-notch speed makes him someone to target in fantasy leagues. Washington seems committed to giving him a look as the everyday center fielder and Logan is perfectly capable of swiping 30-plus bases if given regular for a few months. While completely empty, his batting average should also be league-average or better thanks to bunts and squibbers.

Miguel Montero (C, Arizona Diamondbacks) ? Montero doesn't have quite as much offensive potential as his fellow rookie backstop, Iannetta, but was essentially named the Diamondbacks' starter by manager Bob Melvin way back in December. He'll begin the season in a platoon with Chris Snyder and could work his way into additional at-bats against left-handed pitchers. Montero has 15-homer potential and Arizona's ballpark will give his batting average a nice boost.

Anthony Reyes (SP, St. Louis Cardinals) ? Reyes was effective for the Cardinals down the stretch last season despite an obvious loss in velocity, which has since been blamed on his wearing down in a year that saw him start a total of 32 games between Triple-A and St. Louis (including two in the postseason). He should find a few miles per hour on his fastball to begin this season and has the secondary pitches to rack up 150-plus strikeouts.

Brian Wilson (RP, San Francisco Giants) ? With the Giants openly shopping Armando Benitez all offseason, Wilson has been talked up as the closer-in-waiting. Manager Bruce Bochy spoke highly of him earlier this week, making it clear that the team would give him the first crack at saves should Benitez be shipped elsewhere, and Wilson has enough upside as a setup man to be worth a roster spot anyway.

Last but not least, here are a dozen "deep sleepers" who may not be on their teams' Opening Day rosters or will make the team in a lesser role, but would be perfect to stash away on reserve lists and benches until they're ready to contribute prominently at some point during the season:

Alberto Callaspo (2B/SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Matt Capps (RP, Pittsburgh Pirates)
Angel Guzman (SP, Chicago Cubs)
Andy LaRoche (3B, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Tim Lincecum (SP, San Francisco Giants)
Todd Linden (OF, San Francisco Giants)
Hunter Pence (OF, Houston Astros)
Chris Sampson (SP, Houston Astros)
Jonathan Sanchez (SP, San Francisco Giants)
Chris Snelling (OF, Washington Nationals)
Carlos Villanueva (SP, Milwaukee Brewers)
Dmitri Young (1B, Washington Nationals)

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Do Yanks Have the Arms?

Andy Pettitte's back woes this week are not serious by any stretch of the imagination, but they do underscore a concern the Yankees must have heading into the season.

With three of their five projected starting pitchers representing injury risks ranging from minor to major, will this rotation be able to withstand the long-term loss of a key arm like Pettitte?

Let's take a quick look at the Yankees depth chart of moundsmen and try to determine who will emerge with the greatest value this season.

Pettitte's back, which will cause him to miss Friday's start, isn't a major setback, but should ensure that Chien-Ming Wang will take the mound on Opening Day on April 2. Wang won 19 games with a strong ERA last year and finished second in the AL Cy Young race, but his rate of 3.14 Ks/9 was actually worse than during his rookie season. The fact that he was more hittable last year wasn't a good sign either. Those wins make him attractive, especially in a 4x4 league, but in a strikeout league, you will probably have to overpay for him and may wind up having a reliever with more Ks.

After seriously contemplating retirement this winter, Petttitte has returned to the Yanks and so far this spring, everything had gone swimmingly until he hurt his back doing squats on Monday. Pettitte said he felt "pretty locked up," and had to skip his bullpen session on Tuesday. Although he felt much yesterday, the Yanks have decided to err on the side of caution and skip his scheduled start today. The 34-year-old southpaw wasn't pleased about missing his outing, but says as long as he gets in one more start this spring, he'll be ready to throw 80-something pitches in his first start of the regular season. He's had plenty of elbow issues in his career, but has managed to top 200 innings in each of the past two seasons. However, last season Petttitte struggled until about the time Roger Clemens showed up. And don't forget that Pettitte wasn't exactly a Cy Young candidate in the latter half of his first tour of duty with the Yanks, recording an ERA over 4.00 in five of the last six seasons he spent in pinstripes.

Mike Mussina also has a chance to start on Opening Day, but whichever slot he takes up in the rotation, he'll likely wind up as the Yankees' most valuable starter, assuming he can avoid arm troubles. Moose enjoyed a nice recovery last season after two down years and I absolutely love the control he showed in 2006. I doubt he duplicates his efforts in 2007, but the results will probably still be good enough to make him the most attractive fantasy option in the Yanks' rotation.

Carl Pavano, one of the worst free agent signings in recent memory, has been slapped around quite a bit this spring, but Manager Joe Torre doesn't seem concerned at all. He just wants to make sure the perpetually-injured Pavano is capable of taking the ball every fifth day. But if you're looking for a guy who's going to be on a short leash this season, Pavano's your man. At 31, he's hardly an old man; it just seems that way.

Kei Igawa, the Yanks' consolation prize from Japan after they lost the Daisuke Matsuzaka sweepstakes, is currently penciled in as the No. 5 man in the rotation. He probably cinched the job over Jeff Karstens after throwing five shutout innings on Tuesday. Like Pavano, Igawa may not be long for the job if he doesn't start showing a lot more than what he has this spring.

The two most likely candidates to earn jobs as injuries or ineffective hit are Karstens, who's really opened some eyes this spring with his improved velocity, and Philip Hughes, the organization's top pitching prospect, but a kid the Yanks would rather not rush. Many would like to see Karstens break camp with either Pavano's or Igawa's job, but that's not going to happen. It's just economics. If you throw in Igawa's posting fee, New York has $86 million invested in those two arms, so they're going to get every opportunity to fail (not that Pavano hasn't already had plenty of chances to do). Karstens will probably head back to Triple-A (although there's some talk he could stick as a long reliever/spot starter, a job Darrell Rasner is also in competition for), but he will be a factor this year at some point, and should make a very attractive waiver wire pickup when he does get the call to join the rotation.

Hughes wasn't overly impressive this spring, probably somewhat to the relief of the Yanks. If he had been lights out, Hughes might have forced their hand before they were ready. We're talking about a 20-year-old kid who is going to be very special. Send him down to Triple-A and make sure that when he comes up, it's for keeps. That could happen by the All-Star break depending on his results in the minors. By now, Hughes should be long gone in any keeper league and I've seen him drafted as a late-round flyer in plenty of one-year leagues.

Of course, the wildcard here is Clemens. Could he decide to rejoin his buddy Pettitte again? Certainly when he showed up at one of Pettitte's start earlier this spring, the tongues were wagging. Yesterday, however, the scuttlebutt had him headed to Boston to replace Jonathan Papelbon, who's returning to the pen.

While we're talking about pitching, let's check in on a couple of arms from other teams:

• Sergio Mitre looks like the best bet to break camp with injured starter Josh Johnson's job in the Marlin rotation. Yusmeiro Petit is still is the mix, but Mitre looked great in throwing 44-of-59 pitches for strikes on Wednesday in a Triple-A game, fanning six in 4 1/3 innings. Owner Jeffrey Loria was even watching this one, so Mitre definitely earned some brownie points for his efforts. Coming off a season in which shoulder issues forced him to the DL for almost three month, Mitre enters the season as an unknown commodity, but he's looking like a bit of a sleeper.
• There was some great news Thursday for Jered Weaver owners as he able to throw 60 pitches ? including the first 10 breaking balls he's thrown this spring ? in a simulated game. Weaver will begin the season on the DL because of biceps tendinitis, but after feeling no pain in yesterday's session, he's on track to make his season debut on April 16. The plan calls for the soph to throw a minor league game on Tuesday and then work every fifth day in rehab assignments until taking the mound for the Angels in Boston next month. It's hard to imagine Weaver duplicating the success he had in his 19 starts in the majors last season, but he's still expected to be among the AL's top starters and considering you likely spent an eighth or ninth round pick on him this year, you can breathe a big sigh of relief knowing that it appears his spring arm issues won't linger.</LI< ul>

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Sleepers come in all varieties
This time of year, everyone's looking for sleepers.

The pursuit often leads to something resembling a combination of an Easter-egg hunt and the California gold rush. Everyone wants to know who the sleepers are, but knowing them is only half the battle. What to do with them is more important.

That's why we offer a variety of sleeper lists. A sleeper in one league might be a starter in another. A sleeper in another league might be a snoozer in the next. Use your league's format to sort the buried treasure from the fool's gold.

Light sleepers

These are players most people know who can give you a starter's production, often for a backup's price.

C ?Gerald Laird, Rangers

1B ?Lyle Overbay, Blue Jays

2B ?Howie Kendrick, Angels

3B ?Edwin Encarnacion, Reds

SS ?Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks

OF ?Coco Crisp, Red Sox

OF ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL], Diamondbacks

OF ?Craig Monroe, Tigers

DH ?Jonny Gomes, Devil Rays

SP ?Ian Snell, Pirates

SP ?Rich Harden, A's

RP ?Octavio Dotel, Royals

Post-hype sleepers

These guys were once hot prospects, but they've been bounced off the radar screen by the next round of can't-miss flashes. Each still has talent and could rebound this season.

C ?Miguel Olivo, Marlins

1B ?Dan Johnson, A's

2B ?Chris Burke, Astros

3B ?B.J. Upton, Devil Rays

SS ?Jhonny Peralta, Indians

OF ?Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

OF ?Josh Hamilton, Reds

OF ?Matt Murton, Cubs

SP ?Daniel Cabrera, Orioles

SP ?Zach Duke, Pirates

RP ?Ambiorix Burgos, Mets

Reliable Emergency Management (REM) sleepers

Here are guys who should be starting most of the time, but don't normally come to mind as fantasy starters. (They went for an average of just under $7 in LABR.) If you want to go for stars at other positions first and are left with holes in your lineup, you can feel good plugging them into your remaining spots. (The relievers could be closers at some point.)

C ?Brian Schneider, Nationals

1B ?Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox

2B ?Ty Wigginton, Devil Rays

3B ?Wes Helms, Phillies

SS ?Jason Bartlett, Twins

OF ?Jay Payton, Orioles

OF ?Rondell White, Twins

OF ?Chris Duncan, Cardinals

SP ?Chuck James, Braves

SP ?Joe Blanton, A's

RP ?Jorge Julio, Diamondbacks

RP ?Brian Wilson, Giants

Holding-pattern sleepers

These guys are temporarily paralyzed by the players ahead of them, but could be solid contributors if injury and/or ineffectiveness give them the opportunity.

C ?Carlos Ruiz, Phillies

1B ?James Loney, Dodgers

2B ?Mark Loretta, Astros

3B ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4768"]Ryan Braun[/URL], Brewers

SS ?Erick Aybar, Angels

OF ?Melky Cabrera, Yankees

OF ?Hunter Pence, Astros

OF ?Marcus Thames, Tigers

DH ?Adam Lind, Blue Jays

SP ?Mike Pelfrey, Mets

SP ?Zack Greinke, Royals

SP ?Carlos Villanueva, Brewers

RP ?Mike MacDougal, White Sox

RP ?Derrick Turnbow, Brewers

Veteran sleepers

These are veterans who are generally overlooked by owners searching for the next big thing.

C ?Bengie Molina, Giants

1B ?Nomar Garciaparra, Dodgers

2B ?Marcus Giles, Padres

3B ?Eric Chavez, A's

3B ?Adrian Beltre, Mariners

SS ?Edgar Renteria, Braves

OF ?Pat Burrell, Phillies

OF ?Kenny Lofton, Rangers

OF ?Garret Anderson, Angels

SP ?David Bush, Brewers

SP ?Jon Garland, White Sox

RP ?Todd Jones, Tigers

Sleepwalkers

Here are some lesser-known players who switched leagues in the offseason and might be overlooked in their new surroundings by AL-only or NL-only owners.

C ?Jason LaRue, Royals

1B ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3187"]Craig Wilson[/URL], Braves

2B ?Josh Barfield, Indians

3B ?Shea Hillenbrand, Angels

SS ?Julio Lugo, Red Sox

OF ?Mark DeRosa, Cubs

OF ?David Dellucci, Indians

OF ?Aubrey Huff, Orioles

SP ?Ramon Ortiz, Twins

SP ?Adam Eaton, Phillies

SP ?Horacio Ramirez, Mariners

RP ?Eric Gagne, Rangers

Anesthetized sleepers

These guys are in various stages of coming back from injuries and might be undervalued.

C ?Dioner Navarro, Devil Rays

1B ?Nick Johnson, Nationals

2B ?Rickie Weeks, Brewers

3B ?Morgan Ensberg, Astros

SS ?Bobby Crosby, A's

OF ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL], Mariners

OF ?Brad Wilkerson, Rangers

OF ?Aaron Rowand, Phillies

DH ?Jason Kubel, Twins

SP ?Pedro Martinez, Mets

SP ?Jon Lester, Red Sox

SP ?Bartolo Colon, Angels

RP ?Jason Isringhausen, Cardinals

RP ?Eric Gagne, Rangers

Dr. Seuss' Sleep Book

This group honors my favorite children's author with some of the better names in the game. They also happen to be pretty good values despite their lack of fame.

C ?Chris Iannetta, Rockies

1B ?Ryan Garko, Indians

2B ?Placido Polanco, Tigers

3B ?Wilson Betemit, Dodgers

SS ?Yuniesky Betancourt, Mariners

OF ?Terrmel Sledge, Padres

OF ?Nick Markakis, Orioles

OF ?Scott Podsednik, White Sox

DH ?Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

SP ?Boof Bonser, Twins

SP ?Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates

RP ?Justin Duchscherer, A's

Rip Van Winkles

These are guys who will probably stay in the minors all season, but might one day reward those owners who can afford to be patient.

C ? Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Braves

1B ?Joey Votto, Reds

2B ?Eric Patterson, Cubs

3B ?Evan Longoria, Devil Rays

SS ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL], Angels

OF ?Cameron Maybin, Tigers

OF ?Billy Butler, Royals

OF ?Jay Bruce, Reds

SP ?Yovani Gallardo, Brewers

SP ?[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4441"]Andrew Miller[/URL], Tigers

RP ?Tim Lincecum, Giants

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

AL Team-by-Team Notes
I'm no fan of Boston's decision to move Jonathan Papelbon back to the bullpen, and not only because it meant I had to alter a total nine projections in the draft guide. Still, that the pitcher requested the move seemingly left the team with little choice. I'd like to think Papelbon would have remained a starter all year long had he not gone to management, but it's obvious there were those in the dugout and the front office that wanted him in the bullpen all along. I know the public excuse was that Papelbon had a better chance of staying healthy as a starter. I never really bought that; I only had him at 175 innings as a starter, but I have him putting in a full season of 72 innings now that he's in the pen. The reason for putting him in the rotation is that it was where he could have been most valuable to the team.

Now that he's back in the pen, Papelbon has to be viewed as a top-five fantasy closer. He hasn't had any issues with his shoulder this spring, and the Red Sox will be very careful with him, at least early on, to make sure he doesn't have any woes in the future. Julian Tavarez, the team's new fifth starter, is just holding a seat warm for Jon Lester, who will likely make at least five or six starts in Triple-A at the beginning of the season. Lester is the one of the two worth a flier in AL-only leagues.

The Papelbon move also opens up a spot for Roger Clemens in the rotation, though it seems likely the Red Sox would have done their best to sign him anyway. While Clemens has indicated that there's only a 20 percent chance he'll pitch this year, his history suggests it's still closer to 80-90 percent. I'd have to handicap it as Yankees (50 percent chance), Astros (30 percent), Red Sox (10 percent) and retirement (10 percent).

American League Notes

Baltimore - If either Jay Payton or Kevin Millar has to get 500 at-bats this year, it might as well be Payton. At least he'd be a big upgrade to the outfield defense, with Aubrey Huff likely going to first base and Jay Gibbons and Millar platooning at DH. Still, there's no reason for manager Sam Perlozzo to make Payton the regular left fielder. Alternating Millar in based on who has the hot hand would be the proper plan, and the Orioles would also benefit from using Payton in center against left-handers, with either Jon Knott or Jason Dubois replacing Corey Patterson in the lineup. Perlozzo needs to show flexibility with the entire situation. ? Since Payton isn't truly promised anything, I still have him as a $4 player. His average will drop the more at-bats against right-handers he gets, and he managed just 10 homers and eight steals in 557 at-bats last season. There isn't much more upside here than there is with Millar. ? Gibbons may also be in a situation in which he's technically competing for playing time, but he's locked into a spot against righties and sitting against lefties wouldn't do much harm to his value. Since he seems set to DH most of the time, he's a better bet to stay healthy. I think he'll be good for 25 homers.

Boston - I dropped Coco Crisp a bit in the latest rankings update. The finger he broke last year was supposed to be completely healed this spring, but he's continued to complain of some soreness and he also missed nine days with a sore shoulder before returning Saturday Considering that he hasn't hit at all when he's been in the lineup, he's becoming a riskier pick. The Red Sox are likely to need Wily Mo Pena as more than just a fourth outfielder this year. ? Joel Pineiro obviously became far less interesting with the move of Papelbon back to the pen. Still, I think he'll have a little value in AL-only leagues. He stands to get a lot of sixth- and seventh-inning work in close games, making him a very good candidate for vulture wins.

Chicago - [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1893"]Brian Anderson[/URL] has stepped up as hoped with a .300/.383/.500 line this spring, but the White Sox will go with Darin Erstad in center anyway. Even though they said it was a competition, that's how they wanted to play it from the moment they signed the former Angel in January. Not only has Erstad "earned" a starting job with a .306/.333/.419 line this spring, he's also set to bat second, displacing the obviously superior Tadahito Iguchi. Erstad has had a .330 OBP once in five years, and he hasn't slugged better than .400 since 2000. Maybe he has enough range left that he won't be a liability as a regular, but he'll cost Jim Thome and Paul Konerko the chance to drive in runs while combining with Scott Podsednik at the top of the lineup. Still, let's not worry overly much about the ramifications when the odds are that he'll be on the DL by May 1. That's the real shame in this. Erstad could be a significant asset as a fourth outfielder/cheerleader, but the more he plays, the more likely it is that he'll get hurt. I can't see going more than $3-$4 on him. ? While John Danks has been better than expected this spring, he's probably not ready to be a part of a major league rotation. That Gavin Floyd is the alternative means the White Sox might as well go with the left-hander, but I wouldn't spend a dollar on him. ? Bobby Jenks' velocity is down about 5 mph, and he's not making up for it with better command. Still, things no look bleaker now than they did last spring, when he was nearly pulled from the closer's role before Opening Day and bounced back to save 41 games. Don't target him in drafts, but if he begins to slip, it wouldn't be a bad idea to gamble on him.

Cleveland - It was no surprise that the Indians demoted Adam Miller last week, but they shouldn't wait long to give him an opportunity if he keeps throwing like this. As impressive as he was this month, the possibility exists that he'll be the team's second best starter as soon as the second half of the year. ? Andy Marte has given himself some job security with a solid showing of late. It's helped his case that Ryan Garko has been shaky at first base. If the Indians were to switch Casey Blake back to his original position and go with Garko at first, they'd go from having a below average infield defense to perhaps the worst in baseball. Marte will likely be good for about 20 homers if he can keep his starting job all year long. He probably won't hit for a solid average before 2008.

Detroit - The Tigers plan to start the year with Curtis Granderson leading off versus righties and Ivan Rodriguez taking the spot against lefties. It's a good strategy, one that other managers could learn from. Granderson had a .353 OBP against righties last year, versus a .277 mark against lefties. Pudge was at .385 against lefties and .310 versus righties. Since Jim Leyland decided against a permanent drop, Granderson still looks like a $17 player. He'll match last year's power numbers and do more running, probably ending up with around 15 steals. ? Gary Sheffield hasn't hit for average this spring, but his power hasn't gone anywhere after last year's wrist problems. He looks like one of the better investments among the premier AL outfielders.

Kansas City - Moving on from Angel Berroa was the right idea. As usual for the Royals, it was the execution, not the concept, that was lacking. Tony Pena Jr. is just a defensive-minded stopgap, one whose bat is so weak that he probably won't even be of use as a utilityman once the team eventually lands a long-term shortstop. What I especially disliked about the move is that the Royals already had Pena, though they called him Andres Blanco. If the Royals really think Pena, a career .253/.285/.335 hitter in the minors, is the superior player, then why in the world is Blanco about to begin his fourth year on the 40-man roster? While he hasn't been all bad, Dayton Moore has consistently traded away upside since taking over as GM, and Erik Cordier's departure is that latest loss to the farm system without much depth. As far away as the team is from contention, it's really hard to justify Cordier, Andrew Sisco and Ambiorix Burgos for Pena, Ross Gload and Brian Bannister. I liked the hire at the time, but Moore has done little so far to suggest he's the right man for the Royals. ? Pena is likely to be a bigger liability in batting average the more at-bats he gets, but since he is a candidate for 15 steals, he might be worth going to $2 on as a regular. ? Since Luke Hudson (shoulder) is apparently DL bound, there should be room for both Zack Greinke and Brian Bannister in the rotation. Greinke had likely moved ahead of Bannister anyway and is shaping up as a nice $2 pick. Bannister isn't worth drafting.

Los Angeles - With Chone Figgins set to miss the first month with a pair of broken fingers, the Angels are likely to turn to Maicer Izturis at third base. It wouldn't be a downgrade at all if Izturis could be counted to continue hitting like he did last year. However, that seems unlikely. Izturis is better than Figgins with the glove, but he was getting out OPS'd by about 400 points this spring. With Izturis due to decline offensively, the opportunity is there for Robb Quinlan to claim a piece of the job. Barring a big final week, Izturis should be just a $4-$5 player on draft day. Quinlan could be a nice find at $2-$3, especially with the Angels also lacking sure things at first base and DH. ? Erick Aybar, who spent enough of last season sitting on the Angels' bench that he lost his rookie eligibility, is probably going to be on the Opening Day roster as a result of Figgins' injury. A future regular shortstop, he's seen time at second, third and in center field this spring. He might be a source of cheap steals early on. ? Scot Shields has had a rough spring after missing the first week of games with some reportedly mild shoulder soreness. He's feeling fine now, and his 11.57 ERA is probably partly to blame on his overreliance on the changeup he's been working on. However, the heavy workload is going to catch up to him one of these years. While he's still as good of a bet for wins as any reliever in the majors, he's not the great investment he once was.

Minnesota - The Twins demoted Scott Baker and Glen Perkins and appeared set to have Matt Garza join them in Triple-A Rochester's rotation before watching Carlos Silva get pounded again Saturday. Silva has allowed 20 earned runs and 29 hits in 16 1/3 innings this spring, and it seems he's lost the benefit of the doubt after what happened last year. The Twins need to have Garza in the rotation, and whether it's Silva or Sidney Ponson who gets replaced probably won't matter much. Even if Garza begins the season in Triple-A, he should be held on to in all AL-only leagues. ? The Twins want Nick Punto to be their everyday third baseman ? even going so far as to say he won't be used at shortstop when Jason Bartlett needs to rest ? but he's been injured and unproductive this spring. Odds are he'll fall well short of being a solid regular for the second year in a row. Despite his lack of power, Jeff Cirillo, as the lone alternative in the system, is looking like a quality $1 pick. He's probably going to act as Bartlett's backup, eventually giving him shortstop eligibility. His primary role initially will be to act as the DH against left-handers.

New York - Carl Pavano as Opening Day starter? No, it doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. Still, that the World Series favorites have to rely on one of the biggest free-agent busts ever to start the first game of the season can hardly be considered a good sign. Chien-Ming Wang's hamstring injury got him dropped from $12 to $10 in the rankings. I'm not at all sold on Jeff Karstens as a long-term property, but he likely will be worth using in AL-only leagues while Wang is out, and if he does well, the Yankees will find a way to keep him in the rotation. ? Mike Mussina's mediocre spring isn't much of a source of concern. It hasn't been unusual for him the last few years to have to continue working his way back up to the 88-90 mph range during April. He's a better bet now in the health department than he has been since he had his streak of 200-IP seasons snapped in 2004.

Oakland - Nick Swisher was Oakland's second best hitter behind Frank Thomas last year and has had a terrific spring, but it looks like he'll open the season batting sixth in the lineup. I'm as big of a Jason Kendall fan as you're going to find these days, but the A's would benefit from moving him or Shannon Stewart to the bottom of the lineup and going with Swisher second or third, with Milton Bradley occupying the other spot. A switch would also aid Swisher's fantasy value by getting him a few extra at-bats each week. ? Dan Johnson is nine for his last 16 with a homer, giving him a .333/.439/.467 line in 45 at-bats. The surge should ensure that he enters the season as Oakland's first baseman against right-handers. Swisher will change positions against lefties, with Bobby Kielty going to right field. Johnson should be solid enough to keep it all season, but since he doesn't have a big margin for error, it's not worth going part $7-$8 to get him.

Seattle - The Mariners named Jose Vidro their No. 3 hitter, meaning [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL] will bat sixth initially. Guillen remains the better bet of the two for the season, but I like Vidro as a final-round middle-infield solution in shallow mixed leagues. He probably won't be healthy enough to get 550 at-bats even while DHing most of the times, but he could hit .290-.300 with solid run and RBI numbers. ? Brandon Morrow has made a strong case that he's one of the Mariners' top seven relievers this spring, and with GM Bill Bavasi and manager Mike Hargrove on the hot seat, that just might earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster, even if it would be best for the organization's future if he spent the entire year starting games in the minors. Still, I can't summon too much anger about the situation. There's a good chance Morrow's future is in the bullpen anyway. If he makes the team, he'll be one of the top candidates for the saves in the event of J.J. Putz experiencing a setback with his elbow.

Tampa Bay - Manager Joe Maddon revised his lineup for a second time last week, moving Carl Crawford into the leadoff spot and inserting Ben Zobrist ahead of new No. 3 hitter Rocco Baldelli. The change doesn't make a big difference to the value of either Crawford or Baldelli, though I do like Crawford for a few more steals while hitting ahead of the patient Zobrist. Zobrist benefits most, though he's still handicapped by his lack of power and speed. Also, he'll probably be asked to sacrifice as often as anyone in the AL, negating some of those extra at-bats he was due to get. ? The big loser in Maddon's changes is Delmon Young, but I'm not overly concerned about him starting the season hitting sixth or seventh. The Rays want him batting in the top half of the order and will put him there as soon as his production warrants the switch. ? Jonny Gomes has 250 points of OPS on Greg Norton this spring, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be the Opening Day DH. I hate the reasoning, but it does appear that the Rays prefer Norton, or at least they did at the start of the spring. Norton has almost no chance of being part of the Rays when the club is ready to contend in a couple of years. Maybe Gomes won't be either, but it makes all kinds of sense to give him 500 at-bats so they can be sure one way or the other. ? There weren't any big developments in the closer competition last week. Al Reyes looks like the favorite for early-season saves, but there's no one in the pen worthy of a significant investment. The Rays are reportedly considering a trade for Jorge Julio, but that's hardly an upgrade.

Texas - Maybe there was still a little doubt a couple of weeks ago, but now there's no question that Sammy Sosa will enter the season as the Rangers' regular No. 5 hitter. I'm undecided about whether or not it's a worse move than making a similarly washed up Phil Nevin the cleanup hitter last year. Sosa will probably be a little better than Nevin was, but that's not saying much and the Rangers will be weakening their defense with Frank Catalanotto in left field and either [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1390"]Nelson Cruz[/URL] or Brad Wilkerson on the bench. Sosa's presence will also mean less value for Hank Blalock, who will rarely get to hit with men on base from the sixth spot. Since the Rangers have no reason to be patient if Sosa is batting .220 after the first month, it'd probably be best to stop bidding at $5-$6. ? Jamey Wright has fooled another team with his "nasty" stuff and is going to be given a rotation spot despite a 5.14 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP in 1,461 innings as a major leaguer. The Rangers have employed worse pitchers over the years, but usually it's because other guys have gotten hurt or have been effective. That Wright is actually their first choice for the fifth spot speaks quite poorly of the organization as a whole.

Toronto - John Thomson's shoulder has betrayed him again, and he appears to be out of the mix for the fifth spot in the Toronto rotation. The new favorite for the job is Josh Towers, he of the remarkable 8.42 ERA and .384 average against in 62 innings last year. Victor Zambrano is likely to start off in the bullpen, but he could prove to be an upgrade from Towers later on. He's definitely more interesting from a fantasy perspective. However, I see Casey Janssen as the biggest sleeper of those currently in the mix. He stumbled some after being rushed to the majors last April, but he has better stuff than Towers and better command than Zambrano (and no, you're right, those qualities don't exactly make him unique). ? I'm not dropping B.J. Ryan in the rankings because of his back troubles. He'll be ready for Opening Day. ? Royce Clayton is still penciled into the lineup despite a .151/.171/.182 line this spring. Maybe the Royals won't have the AL's worst starting shortstop after all.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL Team-by-Team Notes
Chipper Jones has already suffered a sprained left ankle and a strained right oblique this spring. His troublesome right foot hasn't kept him out of the lineup yet, but he readily acknowledges that he'll be playing in pain for the rest of his career. Injuries have limited the once durable star to 137, 109 and 110 games the last three years. It's a shame, because his skills are still there. He continued to play at a Hall of Fame level in 2006, hitting .324/.409/.596 when he was in the lineup. He'll probably be right around .300 with 25 homers again this year, but the absences will take a toll on his run and RBI numbers. Since he can only be counted on for 120 games or so, I have him as the NL's No. 7 third baseman, barely ahead of No. 8 Edwin Encarnacion.

One note before the notes: for those with weekend drafts, next week's columns will be posted on Friday (AL) and Saturday (NL) rather than the usual Sunday and Monday.

National League notes

Arizona - Carlos Quentin's partial labrum tear did get him dropped from $15 to $14 in the latest draft guide update, but that's only because he's likely to miss the first week, maybe two, of the season. The injury is unlikely to turn into something he can't play through, especially since it's his non-throwing shoulder that's the problem. I still like his chances of getting to 20 homers and 85 RBI this year. Scott Hairston should be a fine play in NL-only leagues while Quentin is out. ? Edgar Gonzalez continued to add to his case to become the Diamondbacks' fifth starter with a strong showing on Sunday. The club could carry him initially and then try to slip him through waivers when Randy Johnson comes off the DL in mid-April. Dana Eveland and Micah Owings would be better fits for the opening that will still exist when Johnson returns. Owings, though, is probably on his way back to Triple-A. Enrique Gonzalez and Dustin Nippert also remain in the running. ? Dave Krynzel could be in the same situation as Gonzalez. Since he's out of options, he's the logical replacement for Jeff DaVanon on the roster. However, there shouldn't be any need for him when both DaVanon and Quentin are healthy.

Atlanta - Kelly Johnson appears to be on the verge of being named the Braves' starting second baseman, but it's still unclear how the club will divvy up the at-bats in left field. Matt Diaz looked like the favorite for playing time entering the spring, but Ryan Langerhans has outhit him and is the better defender. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3187"]Craig Wilson[/URL] can also see some action out there if he gets over his sore elbow, so neither Diaz nor Langerhans looks like more than a $3-$4 player right now. ? Johnson is worth going to $6-$8 to get. He doesn't have the speed to take full advantage of the leadoff spot, but he could hit .270-.280 with 15 homers and 10 steals if he keeps his job. His on-base skills should make his glove worth living with.

Chicago - Even though Mark Prior was quite a bit more impressive in his last outing, it's only a matter of time until Wade Miller is named the Cubs' fifth starter. My guess is that Miller won't last in the role; the lost velocity due to his shoulder problems has made his fastball more hittable and he's never had a very good changeup to aid in keeping left-handed hitters off balance. If he remains free of injury, Prior will probably find himself in the rotation by May 1. It's doubtful that he'll flash All-Star-type form at any point during the season, but I'd recommend taking a chance on him at $4-$5. ? Matt Murton hasn't truly secured a starting job, but it looks like he will be in the lineup the majority of the time at the start of the year, with Cliff Floyd limited to playing against certain right-handers. Floyd is likely to outhit Murton against righties, but keeping Floyd in a reduced role gives him the best chance of staying healthy. Both can be considered at up to $5-$6 in NL-only leagues.

Cincinnati - The Reds didn't name Dustin Hermanson their closer last week as rumored, but it might happen before Opening Day. Even if it does, I wouldn't put Hermanson much ahead of David Weathers in the rankings. It'd be a surprise if Hermanson provided the Reds with more than 40-50 innings, and given his history, there are hardly any assurances that he'll be effective when healthy. Weathers is at least as good of a bet, and setup man Todd Coffey has looked like the club's best reliever this spring. ? The Reds again seem prepared to try Adam Dunn as a No. 2 hitter. It's a very good spot for him, considering that he'll give Ryan Freel plenty of chances to steal and he'll rarely hit into double plays. Even though he probably won't stay there forever, I see Dunn as someone to target. He seems more motivated than ever before, and his price tag is down after the brutal slump he endured over the final two months of last year. ? Matt Belisle seems poised to capture the fifth spot in the rotation over Kirk Saarloos and Bobby Livingston. I can see Belisle and Saarloos getting flip-flopped a few times this year.

Colorado - The Rockies didn't bother waiting until the final week to make some of their key decisions. Troy Tulowitzki was named the starting shortstop, with Clint Barmes getting sent down. Barmes still could have some fantasy value this year if he gets traded, but the Rockies made the right move here. Tulo should hit .270 with about 15 homers as a rookie. ? Also decided was that Jason Hirsh and Josh Fogg would occupy the final two spots in the rotation, with Byung-Hyun Kim pitching out of the pen unless he's traded. The only real ramification here is that Kim has a little more upside that Fogg in the event of a trade, and now it's clear that he'll be the one to go if the Rockies dmake a move. Hirsh should prove to be a solid No. 4 starter right away, but that's not going to translate into fantasy value. ? Finally, the Rockies chose to keep the remains of Steve Finley over Cory Sullivan. Maybe it's a wash offensively, but Sullivan is the better defender these days and is the one with a future beyond 2007. I don't support Sullivan is a regular, but he is a better option than anyone the Marlins have in camp. Maybe a fit can be found there.

Florida - The Marlins plan on naming a closer at some point before Opening Day, but there's been little to separate Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens and Kevin Gregg so far. Owens has had the best spring of the group, but he was behind the other two and the injured Taylor Tankersley going in. Lindstrom's 4/4 K/BB ratio in 10 1/3 innings doesn't inspire as much confidence as his 0.87 ERA. Gregg has been sharp lately, giving up just three hits over six scoreless innings in his last five appearances. I still see Tankersley as the team's best reliever, and he might be a candidate for saves by May 1. Lindstrom could get the job initially. ? There also wasn't any resolution to the competition in center field last week. Eric Reed has continued to play well in limited action, while Alex Sanchez has been awful with the stick but better than anticipated defensively. Alejandro De Aza has put himself in the mix, but he's not a good bet after hitting .278/.346/.374 with 27 steals in Double-A last year. GM Larry Beinfest should still be working the phones and seeking an upgrade. If he can't land one, Reed clearly deserves the nod. ? Jeremy Hermida appears likely to miss the first two weeks with a bone bruise on his knee. Joe Borchard is the favorite for at-bats while he's out.

Houston - At least the Astros will be 1-for-2 if they have Fernando Nieve join Wandy Rodriguez at the back of the rotation. Rodriguez has given up seven earned runs and walked 12 in 11 2/3 innings this spring, but manager Phil Garner has to have a lefty in the rotation, regardless of whether he's any good or not (the decision to let Andy Pettitte walk over $2 million strikes again). Nieve at least has some upside, though what he also has are major questions about his elbow. I like the idea of carrying him as a sixth starter in NL-only leagues, but he's not someone who is going to give fantasy owners or the Astros six good months. ... I knocked Brad Lidge down from $25 to $22 last week, but I'm not at all sure that's enough. What provides hope is that his fastball velocity has been fine all spring. He's just been leaving both it and his slider in bad spots. I still wouldn't be surprised at all if it clicks for him and he's as valuable as any NL closer this year. However, another season like 2006 is at least as likely and any Lidge owners without Dan Wheeler around to back him up should be very worried. ? The Astros cleared the way for a Luke Scott-Jason Lane platoon in center field by releasing Richard Hidalgo and demoting Hunter Pence (though Pence was really only in the mix for playing time in center). Now they just need to commit to it. Scott against righties and Lane versus lefties is the way it will likely shake down, but Garner has threatened to make one of the two an everyday player. Scott is the better bet in NL-only leagues, but there's too much uncertainty to make him at option beyond $8.

Los Angeles - I'd argue that Brett Tomko was the worst possible choice to be the Dodgers' fifth starter, but Hong-Chih Kuo was no longer an option due to a sore shoulder and Mark Hendrickson would have been a minimal upgrade. At least with Tomko there, Kuo stands a better chance of getting a spot once he's ready to return in May or June. Kuo remains worthy of a flier in NL-only leagues. He's wasn't going to pitch 180 innings anyway, so maybe shutting him down now means he'll be strong for the final four months. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, Tomko isn't such a bad spot starter in NL-only leagues or maybe a full-time guy in 4x4 leagues. ? The Dodgers still haven't tried Nomar Garciaparra at third base, which would seem to suggest Wilson Betemit will have the job despite a poor spring. Andy LaRoche clearly needs to be in Triple-A. ? With Jason Repko likely to miss a sizable chunk of the season due to a groin injury, the Dodgers will try to get themselves a right-handed-hitting outfielder. Matt Kemp is the only option now, and the club doesn't want to use him as a reserve. Kevin Mench and Brady Clark of the Brewers are possibilities. The Giants' Jason Ellison is another, but they should be able to do better. ? Rafael Furcal believes he'll be ready for Opening Day despite an ankle sprain. If he has a setback, Wilson Valdez would probably be the choice to replace him, with Ramon Martinez staying in his utility role.

Milwaukee - That Craig Counsell will start at third base the majority of the time means the Brewers won't have their worst hitter batting second. J.J. Hardy may not be so bad up there anyway, though I think [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3875"]Corey Hart[/URL] would be a better option. Hardy's career OBP stands at .319, but he does have a perfectly respectable walk rate and he's due to hit about 20 points higher than his career .246 average if he can stay healthy this year. Also, he possesses the ability to smack 15-18 homers. Since he's had no physical problems to speak of this spring, he could be one of the better value picks available at shortstop. ? The Brewers need to move an outfielder before the week is out, and because of the difference in salaries, it's likely that Geoff Jenkins will stay and either Mench or Clark will go. Clark isn't going to have any fantasy value unless he's moved, and Mench would also be a weak play in NL-only leagues with the Milwaukee outfield as is. ? Prediction of the week: Carlos Villanueva makes at least 10-15 starts this year and comes out of them with a better ERA than $42 million man Jeff Suppan.

New York - It sounds like the Mets will stick with Shawn Green even though he's hitting .136 in 59 at-bats this spring. With the way he's steadily declined, it's hard to see Green making the team regret it if he is released, and it's not like they'd be stuck without alternatives if Lastings Milledge happened to flop. Endy Chavez was a better player than Green last year, and Ben Johnson might be more than adequate given half a chance. One thing all of them have in common is that they're better defenders than Green. Plus, the Mets have the money and talent to go out and upgrade in July if they need to. Omar has been willing to gamble in the past ? he just gave a two-year deal to a setup man on steroids ? so why not now? Frankly, giving Green 150 at-bats to prove that he's not done would be the bigger risk. ? While Mike Pelfrey earned his rotation spot, there is some cause for concern about his having struck out just five batters in 19 innings. His slider is coming along gradually, but it's not generating a bunch of swings and misses. His moving fastball is such a big weapon that he doesn't need great secondary pitches, but he better keep showing very good command if he's going to survive. As is, I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles his second time through the league. In redraft leagues, I wouldn't go beyond $4-$5 for him. I do see him developing into a long-term No. 2 starter.

Philadelphia - [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] suffered a biceps injury on the very day the Phillies announced they were moving Jon Lieber to the pen, and Lieber then went and suffered a strained oblique in his first appearance as a reliever. The Phillies were quick to point out that Garcia's problem was in fact with the biceps and not the shoulder that he said bothered him at times last season. Still, there is reason for skepticism, especially with his velocity down even from where he was in 2006. Garcia was all too frequently a high-80s guy last year after usually working in the low-90s previously. He's turned himself into a groundball pitcher to compensate, and it seemed likely that the strategy would work even better in the NL than it did in the AL. Still, if his arm isn't sound, guts alone probably won't get him to 15 wins again. Be wary. ? The switch to the bullpen is going to cut into Lieber's trade value, but the Phillies didn't like whatever offers they had received anyway. Whether he's eventually traded or not, Lieber will probably throw at least 150 innings this year, making him worthy of a roster spot in NL-only leagues. Neither Cole Hamels nor Adam Eaton is a very good bet to make 30 starts, and it's anyone guess what's really going on in Garcia's shoulder.

Pittsburgh - Neither has hit at all so far, but [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL] was named the Pirates' starting third baseman over Jose Castillo. Now it looks like both could play with Freddy Sanchez (knee) likely to miss the first week of the season. If Castillo can put together a well-timed hot streak, the Pirates could quickly reverse their decision and turn Bautista back into a utilityman. Still, Bautista is pretty good bet to end up with at least 400 at-bats and 15 homers. He won't hit for average, but he could be a $7-$8 player anyway. ? Despite a 9.45 ERA and a 15/14 K/BB ratio in 20 innings this spring, Tom Gorzelanny will occupy the third spot in the Pirates' rotation. I applaud the team's patience, but even being the Gorzelanny fan that I am, I wonder if he wouldn't be better served working out his command problems in Triple-A. Shawn Chacon has had a fine spring and might be able to build up some trade value with a strong April as the fifth starter. Instead, he'll work in middle relief initially. I like the idea of gambling $2 on Gorzelanny, though he'll need to be benched initially. Tony Armas Jr., who will act as the Pirates' fifth starter, is a weaker investment. ? Salomon Torres' brutal spring continued when he gave up four runs in one-third of an inning on Sunday, raising his ERA to 14.21 in 6 1/3 innings. He also started slow last year, so the Pirates aren't expressing any concern publicly. With Matt Capps sporting an 11.37 ERA in his seven appearances, the club won't be wavering on its decision to make Torres the closer. Still, Torres shouldn't be anyone's top choice for saves in NL-only leagues.

St. Louis - Anthony Reyes won't pitch until the fifth game of the season, but manager Tony La Russa indicated he doesn't plan to skip any of this starters in order to keep Chris Carpenter on four days' rest. I like Reyes best of the Cardinals' non-Carpenter starters, though Adam Wainwright has narrowed the gap considerably. Maybe Reyes won't have a sub-4.00 ERA, but his WHIP will be strong and he should be good for 150-160 strikeouts. ? Juan Encarnacion (wrist) is expected to open the season on the DL. Scott Spiezio will likely get most of the starts in right field while he's out, making him worth using in NL-only leagues. If Jim Edmonds (shoulder, foot) needs to join Encarnacion, So Taguchi figures to man center. Edmonds, though, was able to play Sunday and has a good chance of being in the Opening Day lineup.

San Diego - All signs point to Marcus Giles hitting leadoff. Maybe this is the year he embraces the role, but in his career, he has a 717 OPS in 709 at-bats as a leadoff man and an 859 mark in 1,360 at-bats while batting second. I'd prefer to see Brian Giles leading off with Marcus behind him, but no one asked, as usual. With little RBI potential, Marcus currently ranks eighth among NL second baseman (ninth in 4x4 leagues). Even if he does a very good job reaching base, it's going to be tough for him to score 100 runs with Petco holding the offense back. ? Khalil Greene's sore finger hasn't prevented him from hitting .426 with five homers this spring. The average doesn't mean much, but it's good to see the power, even if there's no way he's maintaining that kind of pace outside of Arizona. He got a slight boost in the rankings last week and now stands as the NL's No. 11 shortstop. Still holding him back is the fact that injuries have limited him to 121 games each of the last two years.

San Francisco - With a 1.50 ERA and a 7/0 K/BB ratio in six innings, Armando Benitez is pitching like he doesn't want to leave San Francisco. It remains a very good idea to back him up with Brian Wilson in fantasy leagues, if for no other reason that he's likely to spend at least a few weeks on the DL, but he's looking like a pretty good bet for 25 saves. Even though he seemed to struggle in every appearance last year, he still finished with a 3.52 ERA, and he's showing better stuff now than he did then. ? That Barry Bonds is going to open the season batting third instead of fourth shouldn't make much of a difference in his value. The loser in Bruce Bochy's revised lineup is Rich Aurilia, who was expected to hit third before Bonds was moved up. Now he could bat fifth behind Ray Durham. ? With Jason Ellison and Lance Niekro both out of options and little room left for Mark Sweeney, the Giants could make a couple of minor deals this week. Ellison is more likely than Niekro to be the object of some team's desire. He could have a little fantasy value if he lands in the right situation.

Washington - Things suddenly cleared up in Washington over the weekend. The rotation is expected to consist of John Patterson, Shawn Hill, Jerome Williams, Matt Chico and Jason Simontacchi, though Simontacchi will miss the first two or three weeks with a groin injury, leaving Jason Bergmann or Rule 5 pick Levale Speigner to fill in. First base will go to Dmitri Young after Travis Lee requested his release, and Nook Logan's groin injury means Ryan Church and Chris Snelling will keep battling for at-bats into the regular season, with Kory Casto likely making the team as a reserve. ? I don't think any of the non-Patterson starters will be worth using in NL-only leagues right away. Williams is probably the best bet of the group for 2007. Chico should be solid enough in 2008, but he's being rushed now. Hill is only of much interest in a 4x4 leagues. ? Young will have to stay ahead of Robert Fick and Casto to remain a starter. He's worthy of the first look, and he still have $10-$12 upside, even in RFK Stadium. If he could be had for $2-$3, it'd be worth taking a chance on him. ? Snelling is only interesting at $2-$3. His skills don't translate very well to fantasy baseball, and it's doubtful that he'd be healthy enough to reach 400 at-bats even if he did overtake Church. ? Logan will almost certainly get his job back when healthy, though the Nationals should be very patient, as he has nothing to offer if his legs aren't 100 percent. He remains a possibility at $2 or so. The two weeks off now just means it will be two weeks later when the Nationals realize he's a lousy option as a regular.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Summing Up Spring Training '07
Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks
What should you take away from Spring Training 2007? Sorting through all the stats and injury info can be a daunting task. Fortunately I've studied it all, and my summary is below.

Meaningful spring stats? You're crazy, Tim.

Wait, hear me out. Stat guru John Dewan has proven that a player who slugs 200 or more points above his career average is more likely to have a better than normal season. eog.com

Some players who managed the feat this year:

Raul Ibanez
Barry Bonds
Khalil Greene
Ronny Paulino
Prince Fielder
Gerald Laird
Jason LaRue
Derrek Lee
Chase Utley
Sammy Sosa
Brandon Phillips
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2353"]Jose Guillen[/URL]

Special attention should be paid to Greene, Paulino, Fielder, Laird, and Phillips. All are on the right side of 30, have full-time jobs, and really could be primed for their best-ever power seasons. Fielder is at the perfect age for a breakout.

Neither Greene nor Paulino are getting much love, so pick them up now. Greene's a 25 home run shortstop if he gets the at-bats.

Did any pitchers leave a good impression?

Sure. Both the stats and the scouts support a breakout year from Erik Bedard. Check out his stats from the last four months of 2006: 2.91 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a strikeout per inning. He could provide fantastic value for a 10-12th round pick. Bedard's teammate Adam Loewen also looks ready to take another step.

Rich Harden tantalized with a K/9 over 16. Say whaaaaat? He's feeling good, though he appeared on the brink of Tommy John surgery a year ago. He's going as early as the seventh round. If you're going to commit a pick like that, you are a risk-taker. I say go for it.

Victor Zambrano has pitched well this spring and appears to be over his elbow woes. But useful fantasy stats in the AL East from this guy? Not even worth a flier in my opinion.

A trio of Braves ? Tim Hudson, Chuck James, and Kyle Davies ? posted excellent numbers. I still don't see any of them posting sub-4 ERAs though. Please send hate mail to the circular file. Thanks.

Kip Wells and Adam Wainwright have looked good as well. Both make fine NL-only picks but I'd hesitate in mixed leagues. Even Wainwright, who should be solid, may be a bit overrated.

Adam Miller pitched 14 scoreless innings, but it wasn't enough. What's he have to do to displace Paul Byrd? Fine AL-only sleeper.

Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg, and Henry Owens all posted ERAs below 2.20. Still wasn't enough to stop the Marlins from trading for Jorge Julio. Monitor this trio if Julio struggles in the closer role (as he has his entire career).

A couple of Royals stood out ? Octavio Dotel and Zack Greinke. Dotel's stock has risen with an 11/2 K/BB ratio. Suddenly he doesn't deserve to be the last closer picked. Sorry, Seth McClung ? you're it. Greinke will start in the rotation, and should be able to hold his spot. Snag him in deeper mixed leagues; he's had success in the past. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football? - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice

Who won a job?

The following players either locked up a job or are on the verge.

J.P. Howell
Micah Owings
Russ Ortiz
John Danks
Oliver Perez
Mike Pelfrey
Matt Garza
Dustin Hermanson
Shannon Stewart
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL]
Darin Erstad
Dan Johnson

There's some good and some bad here. Always is when teams make decisions based on tiny little samples. In the end, just go for the guys who are healthy and talented.

Pelfrey, Perez, Garza, Howell, and Johnson appear to be solid picks in AL/NL-only leagues. Of that group, I really like Garza. A lackluster debut took some of the shine off, but he's going to be a good one. You can pick up Johnson in most leagues for a 75 cent bid, even when the minimum is a dollar. Pelfrey busted out a decent new slider this spring, and he could pull a post-hype Verlander on us.

On the flip side, I'm less enthused with the rest. Danks is talented and healthy, yes, but he's too green for my liking. His control and home run prevention just aren't there, spring be damned. An ERA under 5 would surprise me. And not to rag on the White Sox, but when was Erstad last a useful player? Seven years ago? Also, bet against Hermanson's health and performance if you're handicapping the Reds' closer situation. Bill Bray is probably the most talented member of their bullpen. Sports Picks

Outlook: not good?

It's come to this ? Mark Prior is a dollar pick. I've talked to some people about this, and it seems that he just needs to build up strength and confidence. Keep eyeing that velocity; if he can get into the low 90s your dollar might return ten. Probably not, but he's a better gamble than Kerry Wood. Wood is trying to rehab a torn rotator cuff. He'll probably start the season on the DL with various maladies.

Josh Johnson was due to regress this year, and that was before ulnar nerve problems surfaced. I'm no doctor, but the track record with nerve stuff doesn't seem great. Eric Gagne, Brad Penny, and John Patterson come to mind.

Gary Matthews Jr. saw his stock fall amidst all the HGH stuff. That's good for you, because I think he'll run more and put up respectable numbers. Maybe a 15/15 season, 90 runs scored.

J.J. Putz appeared to be a top five closer until elbow problems surfaced. He could be a bargain if it turns out to be minor. Watch how things go Tuesday and Friday when he pitches in games. He could miss some time and still save 30.

Chone Figgins, Chien-Ming Wang, and Brad Penny were all questionable picks prior to their injury concerns. Now, people are staying away in droves. I can't say I blame them.


The stories of spring

Ultimately, Hunter Pence couldn't crack the Astros' Opening Day roster. But a 1.718 OPS ? best in baseball ? says he's very close to being ready to help. Look for 20 homers, maybe 15 steals once he gets a full season. If Craig Biggio flops and/or reaches 3,000 hits, Chris Burke could move to second and open up a spot for Pence.

Sammy Sosa appears to be improved from the 2005 Orioles version, if not the Sammy of old. He's starting to look like a cheap 20 HR option in AL-only, though I could reconsider once I see him swing and miss at a few foot-outside sliders.

Jonathan Papelbon is closing again, a huge bonus for those who snagged him in the 12th round. He's certainly top five material but carries a strong injury risk. No one really knows how he'll hold up this year.

An even bigger mystery is Josh Hamilton. He raked in spring, and the Reds have to keep him with the big club all year to retain him. The odds are stacked against him, as he only has 89 at-bats above A ball. And that was in 2001, back when John Burkett, Joe Mays, Matt Morris, and Russ Ortiz were among the best pitchers in baseball. Still, there's no denying Hamilton's talent. As an NL-only endgamer, why not?

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

The Stay-Away List
Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks
I've spent the past two weeks going over my AL-only and NL-only sleeper picks, so let's switch gears a little bit this week with Opening Day thankfully right around the corner. As you prepare for last-minute drafts, now is the perfect time to review the overrated players, potential busts, and injury risks who make up my "Stay-Away List."

The players profiled below are primarily relatively big-name veterans who, for various reasons, I'd do my absolute best to stay away from this season. Some of these guys have suffered spring injuries, some of them may struggle to find success in their current situations, and some of them are simply no longer very good. Whatever the case, these are the names I don't want to see on my roster once my drafts this week are over.
eog.com
Garret Anderson (OF, Los Angeles Angels) ? Earlier this week Anderson discussed whether his "skills have depreciated," saying: "I know they haven't. It will happen one day, but I'm not there yet." Plenty of current and future Anderson fantasy owners agree, but he hasn't topped a .450 slugging percentage since 2003, turns 35 years old in June, and missed 50, 20, and 21 games over the past three seasons. The RBI machine has left the building.

Ryan Dempster (RP, Chicago Cubs) ? Don't make the mistake of thinking that Kerry Wood's setback means Dempster's job is safe in Chicago. Wood or not, Dempster was among the worst full-time closers in baseball last season and new manager Lou Piniella doesn't figure to let him fight his way through many struggles. Whether it's Wood, Bobby Howry or someone else, I'd bet against Dempster saving games in the second half.

Juan Encarnacion (OF, St. Louis Cardinals) ? Coming off a so-so season and facing plenty of competition in the Cardinals' outfield, Encarnacion's grip on a starting job was tenuous coming into camp. Now it's clear that he'll begin the season on the disabled list after being slow to recover from a shoulder injury, so it's possible that he won't even have regular at-bats to come back to once he does get healthy. Either way, he's not worth waiting around for.

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (SP, Philadelphia Phillies) ? I wasn't particularly high on Garcia to begin with despite his move to the NL, so the recent talk about decreased velocity and the chance that he'll begin the year on the disabled list is more than enough to scare me off for good. At this point, the upside just isn't there for the risk involved.

Nick Johnson (1B, Washington Nationals) ? It's not often that you'll see a team doctor basically say "I screwed up," but that's essentially what happened with Johnson. The Nationals' medical staff initially expected him to return during spring training following last September's ugly leg injury, but that timetable has been completely abandoned. There's been some speculation that he'll miss the bulk of the season, which is reason enough to stay clear. www.fantasysportspicks.com

Todd Jones (RP, Detroit Tigers) ? I was wrong about Jones losing ninth-inning duties in Detroit last year, but that won't keep me from thinking it's even more likely this season. Joel Zumaya is looming even larger behind Jones in the Tigers' bullpen and manager Jim Leyland will likely have a much quicker hook if his teams fails to get off to another amazing start this time.

Gary Matthews Jr. (OF, Los Angeles Angels) ? The funny thing is that I was convinced Matthews would have a tremendously disappointing first season with the Angels well before the whole steroids issue popped up. Now he'll have all kinds of distractions to deal with in addition to the fact that he simply isn't as good as his somewhat flukish numbers showed last year in hitter-friendly Texas. www.sportspickwinners.com

Seth McClung (RP, Tampa Bay Devil Rays) ? McClung is a good barometer for who at your draft simply grabbed a magazine with some cheat sheets a few hours before showing up. Anyone who does that will think McClung is the odds-on favorite for saves in Tampa Bay, because that was a common thought this winter, but anyone who's been checking the constantly updated player blurbs here at Rotoworld knows that manager Joe Maddon soured on McClung a long time ago. www.greenbaypackers.ws

Mark Prior (SP, Chicago Cubs) ? In the past I've fallen into the trap of thinking that Prior would resume being a dominant pitcher if he ever gets healthy, but I now have serious doubts about whether that's the case. His velocity has been down significantly, he's been knocked around for the past two years, and he'll begin the season at Triple-A in favor of another oft-injured starter, Wade Miller. This is not the year to buy a Prior lottery ticket.

Anibal Sanchez (SP, Florida Marlins) ? Sanchez remains a good long-term bet, but posting a 2.83 ERA and throwing a no-hitter as a rookie have caused expectations to balloon out of control for this year. Sanchez's 72-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 114.1 innings suggests that the 2.83 ERA was due largely to luck, which means he could actually improve his performance while seeing his ERA swell as a sophomore. www.miamidolphins.ws

Freddy Sanchez (3B, Pittsburgh Pirates) ? Sanchez's .344 batting average last year means he was due for some serious regressing to the mean to begin with. Now he's iffy to start the season on time due to a knee injury that has lingered throughout camp. I like Sanchez a lot and was pleased to see the Pirates finally give him an everyday job, but if I had a "Coming Back Down to Earth List" he'd be on it.

Chien-Ming Wang (SP, New York Yankees) ? Wang's historically low strikeout rate made him a headliner in my "busts" article for the Rotoworld Draft Guide, and that was before he suffered a hamstring injury last week. Now he'll begin the season on the disabled list and is not expected back until at least late April, which makes Wang an easy addition to the stay-away list.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

AL Team-by-Team Notes
I must admit that it never even occurred to me that the Royals would try platooning Ross Gload with Emil Brown. Brown was even a little better last year than in his surprising 2005 season, finishing with 41 doubles. He had 80 RBI and OPSs in excess of 800 each year. Still, sitting him two-thirds of the time may not hurt the Royals at all. Gload will hit about as well against right-handers, and while his range is limited in left field, he probably won't be quite as prone to misjudging balls as Brown is. Maybe we'll see more of Joey Gathright as a defensive replacement in Gload's starts. I'd still draft Brown first in fantasy leagues. He could end up as a regular elsewhere once injuries strike, and Gload just doesn't have the home run power to be a big asset.
Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks
American League Notes

Baltimore - Adam Loewen got a boost from $3 to $5 in the rankings this week. I thought Loewen was a year away from breaking through, but with a 20/6 K/BB ratio and just 12 hits allowed in 19 innings this spring, he's made a statement that he might be ready now. I'm anticpating some inconsistency, but maybe he'll have more than a little value anyway. ? Jay Payton (hamstring) is expected to spend a week or two on the DL to start the year, leaving the Orioles especially weak against left-handers. Still, they've already cut Jon Knott (one of the team's two players with multiple home runs this spring) and they seem to be leaning towards having Jason Dubois join him in Triple-A. There's been talk of a Reggie Sanders acquisition, but that seems unlikely. Eduardo Perez would be a nice pickup, though unlike Knott or Dubois, he's not someone who would be a candidate to help in future years. If they do nothing, Freddie Bynum will likely be kept as a 25th man.

Boston - Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jonathan Papelbon have drawn more attention and posted performances to back it up, but Josh Beckett has been perhaps Boston's most impressive pitcher this spring. He's struck out 24, walked four and given up just one homer in 23 2/3 innings. His curveball appears sharper now that he's less worried that repeated use of it will lead to blisters, but it's his changeup that has made the real difference so far. In the past, he's thrown it in the high-80s, leaving little separation between it and his fastball. Now he's gotten it down to 84-85 mph, something that will allow him to keep hitters more off balance. Since he's still not a great bet to throw 200 innings, he doesn't necessarily come highly recommended. However, he should drop a full run off last year's 5.01 ERA. ? Jason Varitek has done nothing this spring to suggest he's going to bounce back from a .238/.325/.400 season in 2006. The power numbers should be there to make him a $10-$12 player in the end, but I currently have him 10th among AL catchers. www.fantasysportspicks.com

Chicago - With the potential for three left-handers at the top of the order, manager Ozzie Guillen is considering rearranging his lineup to put Jermaine Dye back in the third spot ahead of Jim Thome and Paul Konerko. It appears the switch won't happen right away, but it'd be no surprise to see it once the season gets going. A move would lead to more RBI opportunities for Thome and fewer for Dye, though Dye would score more runs to make up for it. An easier solution that moving Dye up would be to drop Darin Erstad to the bottom of the order and put Tadahito Iguchi in the second spot where he belongs. Unfortunately, the White Sox seem to be even bigger fans of Erstad than the Angels were. ? Even though Erstad will get most of the starts in center, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1893"]Brian Anderson[/URL] is going to be kept as a bench player, something the team said wouldn't happen at the beginning of camp. The arrangement may only last until a 12th pitcher is needed, but even if Anderson heads back to the minors for a month, he still could receive at least as many at-bats as the injury-prone Erstad this year. ? Toby Hall hopes to return from a torn labrum in May, but it's at least as likely that he'll end up undergoing season-ending surgery. While they're waiting, the White Sox intend to go with an offensive zero in Gustavo Molina as a backup. They'll eventually either get Hall back or find an upgrade, but A.J. Pierzynski now figures to get a chance to approach his 2006 total of 509 at-bats, making him a stronger pick at $11-$12.
www.sportspickwinners.com
Cleveland - The Indians settled on Ryan Garko and Mike Rouse for the final two spots on their roster. While Garko figures to have a hard time finding at-bats initially ? especially with the Indians intending to use Victor Martinez at first base against a lot of left-handers ? he'd be a candidate to play regularly with an injury at any of five spots (the infield and outfield corners and DH). That makes him worth $4-$5. Rouse isn't one of the better $1 utilitymen. ? No, I'm not the slightest bit concerned about Grady Sizemore's lousy spring. .. Rafael Betancourt may have a 5.68 ERA this spring, but that comes with an 18/2 K/BB ratio in 12 2/3 innings. He's the best investment of the Indians' non-Borowski relievers, and I still think Fernando Cabrera is a legitimate sleeper, though he hasn't been particularly impressive with a 3.75 ERA and six strikeouts in 12 innings. ? C.C. Sabathia thinks he'll be ready to go on Opening Day despite a wrist contusion suffered Wednesday. If not, it looks like Paul Byrd might be moved up to start then, with Adam Miller getting a callup if Sabathia still isn't ready to go by the weekend.
The Player's Paradise
Detroit - With fewer choices to be made than most, the Tigers became their first team to set their 25-man roster, picking Neifi Perez over Chris Shelton and Ramon Santiago. Chad Durbin got the last pitching spot over Zach Miner. From a fantasy perspective, Shelton is the only interesting name of the bunch. His departure means Marcus Thames will get whatever starts at first base than Sean Casey doesn't. Thames should approach 20 homers, making him an option at up to $5. Shelton remains a possibility to be traded, but the Tigers have no real needs, and since they see Shelton as a potential first baseman in 2008, they're not going to give him away. Shelton may stay in Triple-A until Casey lands on the DL. ? Kenny Rogers' tired arm means Durbin will make at least one start next week. Don't look for it to be a long-term issue. ? Justin Verlander is sporting an 8.31 ERA and a 7/5 K/BB ratio in 13 innings, but there hasn't been anything wrong with his stuff this spring. Johan Santana, Rich Harden and Roy Halladay are the only AL starters I project as having better ERAs this year, though Verlander lags well behind them in the rankings because of questions about his ability to hold up for 200 innings.

Kansas City - Alex Gordon has displayed enough this spring to enter the year as a $16 third baseman. It seems obvious that he's capable of hitting .280-20-80 as a rookie, and he might also swipe 10-12 bases once he gets comfortable. ? I gave Zack Greinke a nice boost in the projections this week, putting him at 11 wins with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. That leaves him just behind Gil Meche at $5 in the rankings. ? Brandon Duckworth capitalized on Brian Bannister's poor finish to become the Royals' temporary fifth starter with Luke Hudson (biceps) sidelined. Hudson hopes to be back in mid-April, so Duckworth could make just two starts. ? Mark Grudzielanek (knee) is set to occupy a spot in the Opening Day lineup after all. Esteban German owners have to be disappointed not to get those one or two weeks of regular playing time to start the year, but they can count on the Gold Glover getting hurt again. German isn't going to see much time while everyone else is healthy.

Los Angeles - The Gary Matthews Jr. furor has died down, and he's now just another one on the list of alleged dopers who may or may not still be cheating. He was someone to stay away from this year before the entire mess, but his price tag is down now and he could be fine to grab if he can be had for $10-$12. Matthews is durable, and as the Angels' leadoff man, the potential is there for him to get 600 at-bats. He's likely to be good for a few more steals this year, so he's not going to need to be very productive to be a $12 player. ? Maicer Izturis finished well this spring, so he'll probably get the majority of the starts at third base early on. Robb Quinlan will also see action there and at first base against lefties. ? Dustin Moseley is scheduled to make two starts before Jered Weaver's targeted return on April 16. He could then be dropped into middle relief or get sent to the minors, depending on how he performs.

Minnesota - Considering that Matt Garza wasn't conditioned to go five or six innings following his neck problems earlier this month, I can understand the case for sending him down. The Twins are already on the hook for Carlos Silva's salary, so they might as well give him a few starts before deciding whether they're better off going forward with him or Sidney Ponson. The Twins will be in trouble if Garza isn't in the rotation by May 1. Garza remains the Twins' No. 3 starter for fantasy purposes behind Johan Santana and Boof Bonser. ? Joe Mauer's stress reaction was apparently a false alarm. He's going to be ready for Opening Day, and the odds of the injury turning into a stress fracture seem remote. The Twins wouldn't have let him resume playing so quickly if they were concerned at all. ? The Twins settled on a five-man bench of Jeff Cirillo, Mike Redmond, Jason Tyner, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4186"]Luis Rodriguez[/URL] and Chris Heintz. It's a group I have projected to hit five homers this year. Fortunately, Lew Ford's four homers should be back in a few weeks.

New York - Josh Phelps is hitting .400/.436/.486 to Doug Mientkiewicz's .171/.327/.244. The Yankees probably won't be quick to abandon their plans for a platoon, but maybe they'll give Phelps more at-bats as time goes on if his performance warrants it. Phelps' 25-homer power makes him a very intriguing $1 pick in AL-only leagues. ? Chien-Ming Wang is probably going to push for a mid-April return from his hamstring injury, and the Yankees may be more inclined to let him come back a little earlier if Jeff Karstens (elbow) continues to have some soreness when he throws Saturday. If Karstens can't take a spot in the rotation, Darrell Rasner will likely be the Yankees' fifth starter.

Oakland - Dan Johnson's hip injury will cost him at least the start of the season and maybe the first three months, apparently making Erubiel Durazo the Athletics' first baseman against right-handers. Considering that Durazo has had only an average spring and is a liability on defense, the A's could explore alternatives. Acquiring an outfielder and using Nick Swisher at first base is one possibility. Still, if Durazo can be had cheap this weekend, he'd be a nice pick. ? Joe Kennedy didn't have to strike out nine batters on Tuesday to secure his rotation spot, but he did need to do something like that to make himself an option in AL-only leagues at the beginning of the season. Still, he's not a great play while likely getting the Angels and Yankees in his first two starts. ? Top prospect Travis Buck isn't going to make the A's, but with a .370/.444/.574 line in 54 at-bats to date, he is looking like an in-season option should the club need another outfielder. Mark Kotsay won't be back until July, Johnson might be in the same boat and neither Milton Bradley nor Shannon Stewart is known for his durability, so it's not hard to envision a scenario in which the 23-year-old is needed as soon as May or June.

Seattle - I'm especially worried about Felix Hernandez's long-term health with Mike Hargrove and Bill Bavasi now primarily interested in saving their jobs, but Hernandez has showed enough this spring to justify a $20 price tag in AL-only leagues. He'll reach 200 strikeouts if he makes 32 starts, and an ERA in the mid-3.00s is very realistic. He had a 3.92 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over the final four months of last year. ? The best thing about Rey Ordonez winning a spot on the Mariners is that it'd make Hargrove even less afraid to use Willie Bloomquist, another one of the worst hitters in baseball. What I love most about Bloomquist is how he's been under his career OPS of 641 in each of his four full seasons in the majors. He hit .455 with an 1102 OPS in 33 at-bats in 2002. ? The Mariners asked for too much in return for Jeremy Reed over the winter, and now they've sent him down to Triple-A rather than give him away. I still hold out hope that Reed will become a solid regular, but it's not going to happen in Seattle. Adam Jones is likely to be their long-term center fielder, and Reed's bat isn't going to play in a corner.

Tampa Bay - The Rays are prepared to go with a closer-by-committee at the start of the year, with Al Reyes likely leading the way. Brian Stokes could be next in line. He's currently on firmer ground than either Chad Orvella or Juan Salas, even though he has the worst numbers of the trio. Seth McClung has pitched his way back to Triple-A with his showing this spring, but since the Rays would still like to see him emerge, he'd be nice to have stashed away in AL-only leagues. Orvella and Salas appear to me to be better late-round picks than Stokes. ? Jonny Gomes has more than 300 points of OPS on Greg Norton this spring, but he's still not assured of even making the team. It'd help his case if Jorge Cantu is sent down. Cantu, who was shopped all winter, is hitting just .250/.258/.333 and has continued to disappoint on defense. If he does make the team, it might be as a DH rather than as a second baseman. That would open up playing time for B.J. Upton and Brendan Harris at second. Ty Wigginton would also be an option there, but Norton's awful spring hasn't provided the Rays with any reason to move Wigginton off first. Cantu is a tough call for fantasy purposes, as the potential is there for him to hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs this year. The problem is that if he does anything less, his abysmal OBP and poor defense would prevent him from helping the Rays. At this point, it appears best to stay away.

Texas - Eric Gagne will begin the year on the DL so that he can get some more innings in before assuming the closer's role. Why not just stick him in middle relief instead? Part of the reason is that the Rangers want him on a structured routine for as long as possible, but it also seems like they're just not confident in his ability to get anyone out right now. Gagne is throwing 88-90 mph for the most part, so he'll have to be in peak form with his offspeed stuff in order to have success. He'll likely get there eventually ? assuming his elbow doesn't start bothering him again first ? but there will be some rough days at first. The Rangers may find they're better off with Akinori Otsuka in the closer's role. The only way to approach the situation is to draft both. Best-case scenario, Gagne is lights out in May and June and Otsuka gets to close elsewhere in the second half. ? Brad Wilkerson, who has been outhit by [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1390"]Nelson Cruz[/URL] this month, seems unlikely to have a starting job. A healthy Wilkerson would be one of the Rangers' best players, but he's showed little power since returning from shoulder surgery, hitting .255/.328/.364 in 53 at-bats this spring. The Rangers may play Wilkerson over Frank Catalanotto against lefties ? he's a left-handed hitter, but he's usually hit southpaws well ? and give him a couple of starts per week over Cruz. Full-time play should come eventually, and I still think he'll be a substantial asset in AL-only leagues.

Toronto - Other than his lousy .182 average, there has been no indication that Troy Glaus is still having difficulties with the left shoulder that required a cortisone shot two weeks ago. It's his right shoulder that's been more of a problem in the past, so maybe I'm concerned over nothing. Still, he wasn't one of my preferred picks at third base going in and he certainly isn't now. ? Brandon League seemed poised to become one of the AL's better setup men this year, but a partially torn rotator cuff the Jays decided to keep quiet about changed that in a hurry. With his velocity down 8-10 mph, he'll begin the year in Triple-A, leaving Jason Frasor as the probable eighth-inning guy. I'm not very concerned about B.J. Ryan's back troubles, but it is worth noting that Frasor now appears to be the top fallback for saves. Jeremy Accardo could also enter the picture. ? The Jays seem prepared to keep Lyle Overbay in the second spot in the order despite his tough spring. Alex Rios, who entered camp as the alternative there, has had the better month and still might be an option later on. He'd almost certainly benefit more than Overbay from a fantasy perspective.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Prior Arrangements

With the regular season kicking off Sunday night, we'll use the final installment of Offseason Lowdown to take a look at some late spring training developments that could create some early-season value in unexpected places.

If you're a long-time owner of Mark Prior, I'm sure you know the drill by now. For the fourth straight season, Prior won't break camp with the Cubs. Except this time, instead of staying back to deal with a specific injury, the No. 2 overall pick from 2001 is headed to Iowa to build up his arm strength against Triple-A hitters.

Prior's loss is Wade Miller's gain, as the former Astro has parlayed a fine spring into the fifth starter job. Of course, Miller's battled his own injury demons, undergoing shoulder surgery after the 2005 season that limited him to just five starts last season with the Cubs.

While his upside is questionable, if Miller is back to full strength ? and he's certainly pitched well enough this spring to make us think so ? he could be worth a gamble. He averaged 15 wins per season between 2001 and 2003, but consistent shoulder problems since then have led to command issues. And yeah, it's only spring training, but a K/BB ratio of four to one is a very promising sign for Miller.

Meanwhile, Prior ? still just 26 unbelievably ? becomes a very interesting minor league pitcher to keep an eye on. Obviously, at this point we've got to temper our expectations of what he's capable of doing even if he were healthy. But that's the first step: let's see if Prior, able to make just nine starts last season because of shoulder woes, can continue to build up his velocity and strength in Triple-A and actually stay healthy. If so, he can still deliver a very nice return for NL-only owners.

Other recent developments with fantasy ramifications include:

• Jeremy Hermida's injury has opened the door for Joe Borchard to see quite a bit of action in the first month of the season as the strong side of the RF platoon for the Marlins. It's unlikely Borchard will offer any value for an extended period, but he can certainly help NL-only league owners in April, especially if he flashes some of his long-promised power. Perhaps more relaxed now that he knows what his role will be from the outset, Borchard launched his first home run of the spring on Thursday.
• An abdominal injury to Cliff Lee that will sideline him until perhaps late-April has allowed Fausto Carmona to grab a rotation spot for the Indians. Carmona pitched very well once he was shifted back into the rotation in September after the failed closer experiment, so he's definitely worth an early-season look given that he'll be in line to make three or four starts.
• While we're discussing the Cleveland rotation, there was some concern that C.C. Sabathia would miss his Opening Day assignment after getting plunked on the wrist on Wednesday, but he insists he'll be good to go. Still, the injury appeared bad enough that the team was considering bringing top prospect Adam Miller back to camp. Miller is slated to begin the season as the top starter at Triple-A Buffalo, but don't worry. The pitcher many believed should have got the first crack at replacing Lee over Carmona will be showing up at some point. And when Miller does arrive, he may not be leaving.
• Although he's apparently not hurt, Eric Gagne will begin the season the DL as Texas thinks he needs to get some more work in before he's ready to assume his role as the Rangers' closer. So we're back to Plan B in Texas, Akinori Otsuka. He already looked like a solid pick, but now Otsuka will be flying off the waiver wires with the news that he'll open the season as the closer. If Gagne can't come back (would that shock anyone?), Otsuka will retain top value all year, and if Gagne does return, Texas could very well look to deal Otsuka, so he may still wind up racking up saves elsewhere.
• With the announcement that Ryan Madson will be the main set-up man for Philly, you need to bump him up your list. Madson has scrapped his curve and is instead employing his cutter and the experiment is working as he's enjoying a very nice spring. We all know about closer Tom Gordon's injury history, so Madson could wind up having some serious value this year should Flash run into health issues.
• Carlos Quentin suffered a setback in his recovery from a torn labrum Thursday, so he's almost certain to begin the season on the DL. This opens the door for Scott Hairston to start the season as the D-Backs' right fielder. Hairston has been unstoppable this spring, batting .426 with six dingers. He's crushed Triple-A pitching for a few seasons now, so deserves another look in Arizona, but it may be short-lived with Quentin not expected to miss much time.
• Dan Johnson will start the season on the sidelines because of a torn labrum in his left hip. There's no clear indication of how long Johnson will be out, but it's conceivable that it could be as much as a couple of months. So that opens the door at first base, and increases the chances that Erubiel Durazo makes the team. Nick Swisher may also shift to first base full-time, a move that would allow Bobby Kielty to play every day, but Kielty has been dealing with his own issues this spring as he recovers from as knee injury. Right now, it looks like Durazo is the big winner here, and he's enjoyed a productive spring, so could be a decent pickup for the first few weeks of the season.
• Alejandro De Aza enters the season as the Marlins' starting CF and while it's a great story, you've got to wonder how long it will last. There's not much in his minor league track record to suggest he's ready for a prolonged run at the job, but if you're seeking cheap steals, De Aza could be worth a sniff. Bear in mind, however, that Florida spent of ton of time seeking outside options this offseason, and in-house candidate Eric Reed enjoyed a massive spring, so they could turn to him if De Aza stumbles.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Ready, set, draft!
Preparation is almost complete. Keeper lists are in. The Sports Weekly Fantasy Extra edition has become dog-eared after just one week's use. There's only one thing left: draft day!

To give yourself the best chance of having a strong draft, you'll need a game plan that fits your league.

Position, statistical scarcity

Of all the factors in a draft, scarcity plays perhaps the biggest role ? both from a position and a category standpoint.

Johan Santana and Chase Utley carry a premium because they are so much better than anyone else at their position, regardless of league format.

In AL-only leagues, there is a wealth of talent at the DH spot, so make sure to get production out of your extra hitter, even if you don't land David Ortiz, Travis Hafner or Jim Thome (who are eligible only at DH). There's also a good supply of above-average outfielders, so it's smart to wait for bargains when filling the outfield spots.

However, in NL-only leagues, the outfield choices aren't as plentiful. There are maybe six or seven top-tier picks before the talent level drops off. Try to snag at least one of the elite ones.

Third base in the NL is as deep as it's ever been with Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, Garrett Atkins and Ryan Zimmerman all capable of putting up star-quality numbers.

In both leagues, there are only a handful of surefire closers, and they will command a premium price. However, a number of teams will end up changing closers over the course of the season, which will create additional opportunities to grab saves on the cheap.

Stolen bases are also a scarce commodity. Pure speed guys such as Juan Pierre and Chone Figgins are prime sources ? at least Figgins was until he broke two fingers last week ? but they don't hit homers or drive in many runs. That scares some fantasy owners away, even though the same people will draft Adam Dunn or Richie Sexson without worrying about their low batting average and lack of steals.

Sure, five-category players are great to have, but there aren't many of them out there. Steals and batting average count just as much as homers and RBI so don't worry about where the numbers come from as long as they add up.

Beware of last year's stats

After the first wave of talent is off the board, it's better to draft skills rather than numbers. Categories such as RBI and wins are largely dependent on factors that a player can't completely control.

For example, Kelvim Escobar was sixth in the American League last season in ERA (3.61), yet he finished with a record of 11-14 ? partly because he was last among AL starting pitchers in run support at 4.47 runs per game. Meanwhile, teammate Ervin Santana was among the AL leaders in run support (6.31). He finished 16-8 despite an ERA (4.28) more than half a run higher than Escobar's.

In the NL, Jake Peavy had a similar lack of run support (4.45) and finished with the same 11-14 record despite a better-than-average 4.09 ERA. Strikeout rates and opponents' batting averages indicate Escobar and Peavy are both better pitchers than their records showed. Both should bounce back this season.

While wins, RBI and the average categories (batting average, ERA, WHIP) are difficult to predict consistently, other categories can be targeted more easily during the draft.

If you're in a rotisserie league, and you know the winning totals in homers, runs, steals, strikeouts and saves from previous years, try to keep track of the cumulative stats of the players you draft. Then see where your team would have ranked in those categories and adjust your strategy if needed.

The injury factor

Injuries represent both the biggest danger and the biggest opportunity in the entire draft. There's no definitive way to tell if a player can come back from a past injury or avoid a future one (although there are services such as The Baseball Injury Report that do a nice job of helping to clarify risks and recovery times).

Injuries are such an unpredictable part of the game that many Roto owners refuse to even bid on the top-tier superstars because an injury would leave such a gaping hole in their roster. Derrek Lee and Hideki Matsui are among the most durable players in the majors, but each spent the majority of last year on the disabled list with broken bones.

Just like playing the stock market, it all depends on how much tolerance you have for risk. In my leagues, I don't mind occasionally going out on a limb. In this year's LABR drafts I ended up with J.D. Drew in the AL and Ken Griffey Jr. in the NL. Already, Griffey is questionable for Opening Day after breaking a bone in his hand. Still, at $12 he could turn out to be a tremendous bargain if he can play in 130 games and hit 35 homers like he did in 2005.

A good rule of thumb is to allow a couple of roster spots for purely speculative picks that could pay off handsomely. Keep Pedro Martinez, Juan Rivera and even Roger Clemens on your draft boards, even though they aren't going to be playing until midseason or later. If others in your league have forgotten about them, they're certainly worth $1 or a late-round pick.

Just don't go overboard. The law of averages says that a roster full of high-risk, high-reward players isn't going to have a very high success rate. One or two speculative picks won't ruin a season if they don't pay off. Three or four almost certainly will.

Final thoughts

The teams that win their leagues often get major contributions from one or more unexpected sources. Last season, the incredible number of productive rookies could have helped provide that boost.

Also, players such as Takashi Saito, Luke Scott, Chris Duncan, J.J. Putz and Mark Teahen probably went undrafted a year ago, but they all finished the season among their leagues' most productive players.

Finally, remember that draft day is only the start of the season. It's still possible to recover from a poor draft by diligently watching the waiver wire and always being willing to talk trade.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL Team-by-Team Notes
Todd Helton is currently batting .396, but despite all of the bulking up he did over the winter ? he reportedly added 30 pounds ? he has just three extra-base hits in 49 at-bats. The added muscle likely will lead to more power during the season, but it could also make him more vulnerable to injury. Helton played in at least 152 games in each of his first seven full seasons, but he's spent time on the DL in the last two and probably will head back there this year if this spring's right knee troubles are any indication. That an in-season trade is pretty unlikely means he doesn't have to be avoided completely. However, Prince Fielder and Conor Jackson look like better investments once beyond the NL's elite first basemen.

National League notes

Arizona - Carlos Quentin's setback Thursday means Scott Hairston will open the year as the Diamondbacks' left fielder, with Eric Byrnes switching to right. As one of the league's best hitters this spring, Hairston has finally given himself considerable trade value at the one moment Arizona truly needs him. If he could stay healthy, he'd be capable of hitting .280 with 25-30 homers as some team's regular left fielder or DH. The Diamondbacks, however, will likely have Quentin back in mid-April and they're not going to start him over Byrnes, even though it might be an upgrade. Since a trade still hasn't come after two years of waiting, it wouldn't be a great idea to go beyond $2 to get Hairston. ? Randy Johnson's strong effort Thursday was encouraging, but he still isn't due back until April 19. Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings will have rotation spots in the meantime. Gonzalez is the one expected to keep his job when Johnson returns, but that could change. His below average fastball and flyball tendencies make him a poor fit in Chase Field. ? As the Diamondbacks' probable leadoff hitter, Stephen Drew went from $15 to $16 in the rankings this week. Injuries will likely prevent him from reaching 570-600 at-bats, but he can hit .280 with 18 homers and 90 runs scored if he plays in 145 games.

Atlanta - I have bumped Tim Hudson from $8 to $10 based on his showing this spring, but he doesn't have the upside he once did. There's a good chance he'll lower his ERA a full run from last year's 4.86 mark, but even so, he won't be much of an asset in WHIP or strikeouts, preventing him from making a major impact in mixed leagues. I prefer Chuck James, Scott Olsen, Anthony Reyes and a few other guys who might go for less in NL-only leagues. ? As expected, second base is going to belong to Kelly Johnson. The Braves could platoon at first base and in left field at the start of the year, with Scott Thorman and Ryan Langerhans occupying the seventh and eighth lineup spots against righties and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3187"]Craig Wilson[/URL] and Matt Diaz there against lefties. While Diaz would be on the bad side of the platoon, I have him ranked above Langerhans. ? Lance Cormier just needs to pass a test with his sore right shoulder on Sunday and he'll be the Braves' No. 5 starter. Kyle Davies would get the nod otherwise. Even though Davies is due to spend time in Triple-A, I think he's the better sleeper of the two.

Chicago - The Cubs have already announced their Opening Day lineup, and it will have Matt Murton in the No. 2 spot. He's not going to stay there ? he'll sit against a lot of righties while Cliff Floyd is healthy and probably hit lower in the lineup when Ryan Theriot is in there ? but he's shaping up as a better pick in NL-only leaues. ? That the Cubs are also going to try to find playing time for Ronny Cedeno will hurt Theriot a bit, but maybe Theriot will get more than just the occasional start at second base to make up for it. I'm still not a big believer in Theriot's bat, but his legs could allow him to steal 20 bases, making him a fine source of cheap steals. ? If the Cubs give Murton plenty of starts as a No. 2 hitter, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez will have better chances at establishing new career highs in RBI this year. Because of Dusty Baker's incredibly poor lineups, Lee only drove in 107 runs during his MVP-quality 2005. Ramirez had 119 RBI last year despite not having Lee in front of him for most of the season. Both have looked fantastic this spring, and Lee is an especially good investment with his price down from where it was a year ago.

Cincinnati - I'm not yet a believer in Josh Hamilton for this year, but he does need to go for at least a couple of bucks in NL-only leagues. Especially now with Chris Denorfia requiring Tommy John surgery, Hamilton figures to get a chance to play regularly when either Ken Griffey Jr. or Ryan Freel goes down. The Reds may eventually decide they're better off with Jeff Conine in that role or trade for additional help, but probably not before Hamilton gets 150-200 at-bats and contributes with a few homers and a handful of steals. ? The Reds still haven't announced a closer. With Dustin Hermanson giving up four runs ? two earned ? and seven hits in his last four innings, it appears possible that David Weathers will get the nod at the start of the season. Weathers has allowed two runs and six hits in eight innings this spring. I think he's the superior choice, in no small part because he's better equipped than Hermanson to pitch two or even three days in a row. Hermanson needs a structured workload to keep him healthy, and that would be easier to do if he's a seventh- or eighth-inning guy.

Florida - The Marlins felt they needed an established closer and got one in Jorge Julio. Sure, Julio is a below average reliever, but he has a closer's fastball and strikeout numbers (88 in 67 IP last year). Since he'll almost always enter the game with the bases empty and he'll rarely be asked to go more than an inning, he'll get the job done the majority of the time, and despite his spotty track record, he has enough job security to be worthy of a $15-$17 bid in NL-only leagues. ? I see Taylor Tankersley as the only one of the former closer candidates worth holding on to in NL-only leagues. Julio is hardly a sure thing, but Matt Lindstrom, Henry Owens and Kevin Gregg would have to separate themselves from the pack to be a good use of a roster spot. Tankersley, who will spend the first week or two on the DL with shoulder inflammation, is the best bet to help in ERA and WHIP if he's not getting saves. ? To get Julio, the Marlins sacrificed some of their scant starting pitching depth. Yusmiero Petit's stock has dropped over the last year, but his departure leaves the Marlins without any obvious choice to step in should another starter join Josh Johnson on the DL. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL] isn't an option because of his arm problems. It might be that Wes Obermueller would get the call. Marlins GM Larry Beinfest will likely do his best to find a better sixth starter on the waiver wire. ? Joe Borchard and Cody Ross will platoon in right field while Jeremy Hermida (knee) misses the first two weeks. Since Borchard will play against righties, he's the one worth using in NL-only leagues.

Houston - The Astros wouldn't have asked for much in return in order to part with Morgan Ensberg over the winter, but now they're embracing the third baseman, who managed a .396 OBP even in a disappointing 2006 season. It appears that Ensberg will hit second ahead of Lance Berkman, making his OBP quite a bit more valuable than it was when he was batting in front of Preston Wilson, Adam Everett and Brad Ausmus. The negative is that it's Chris Burke, not Craig Biggio, who will go into the sixth spot to make room. With three straight 20-homer seasons and an OBP that's dipped to .325 and .306 the last two years, Biggio is almost the prototypical No. 6 hitter at this point of his career. Burke was at .347 last year. Maybe the switch will come later on. While the Astros don't want to embarrass Biggio, they weren't afraid to sit him against a bunch of right-handers in the second half of last season. ? Burke, one of my favorite picks before his early slump and Hunter Pence's torrid spring, loses additional value while hitting sixth. I still expect solid numbers, but Pence could be at least as good of a player by midseason and it might not take more than a two-week slump before the Astros consider a change. ? Pence homered off Brad Lidge in a minor league game Thursday, but that would have been a more impressive feat a couple of years ago. Lidge's brutal spring continues to take a toll on his value. The Astros will have to go to Dan Wheeler unless Lidge can turn things around over the first couple of weeks of the season.

Los Angeles - Nomar Garciaparra still hasn't seen an inning at third base, so it looks like Wilson Betemit will be the Dodgers' third baseman. He has a good shot at reach 20-22 homers and 80 RBI if he can stay ahead of Andy LaRoche on the depth chart. LaRoche has some fielding woes to overcome in Triple-A before he gets a shot. ? With Nomar staying at first, James Loney is going to be assigned to Las Vegas. He still shouldn't be forgotten about in NL-only leagues. Garciaparra will spend time on the DL, and if Loney can improve defensively in the outfield, maybe he'll overtake [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3797"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4378"]Luis Gonzalez[/URL][/URL] at midseason. ? While the Brady Clark acquisition won't mean much from a fantasy perspective, it did give the Dodgers the right-handed-hitting outfielder they need with Jason Repko down for the season. Because the Dodgers have Loney and Matt Kemp capable of stepping in if anything happens to a regular, Clark is a mediocre $1 pick. ? The light-hitting Wilson Valdez will likely fill in at shortstop if Rafael Furcal (ankle) misses the first week of the season. ? He's not needed in Los Angels right now, but Chin-Hui Tsao has impressed with the way he's come back from shoulder surgery this spring. He'll help in middle relief later on, and he could be a potential closer if he finds his way to another organization in 2008.

Milwaukee - Subtracting Clark barely clears up Milwaukee's outfield logjam. The Brewers still have an unhappy Kevin Mench, who will be limited to starting against left-handers in a platoon with Geoff Jenkins. If [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3875"]Corey Hart[/URL] is going to sit once per week against right-handers, it'd make more sense to turn to Gabe Gross than to give that assignment to Mench. Once the club gets Laynce Nix back from a strained oblique, perhaps they'll again look to move Mench. ? As the Brewers' fifth starter, Claudio Vargas will get only three starts in April. Vargas, part of the Doug Davis-Johnny Estrada trade, is somewhat interesting considering his success outside of Arizona the last two years. However, he probably won't be worth using early on.

New York - Chan Ho Park was cut Thursday and Mike Pelfrey is going to pitch in the minors until needed on April 13, so there was room on the Mets roster for both Lastings Milledge and Ambiorix Burgos to start the year. Milledge is going to play behind Shawn Green initially. Since he's just 22, it makes no sense at all to keep him in that role for long. Unless the Mets choose to give up on Green, Milledge could be sent back to Triple-A when Pelfrey is added. ? After going with David Wright as their No. 2 hitter all spring, the Mets reversed course Friday and put Paul Lo Duca back in his old spot, making Wright the No. 5 hitter. I was always skeptical the switch would last ? last year's arrangement worked well enough and big-league managers rarely mess with success ? but I did finally give Wright a $1 boost in the rankings this week, enough to push him past Miguel Cabrera as the NL's No. 1 third baseman. Now it looks like I have to undo that change.

Philadelphia - Pat Burrell hasn't hit for average this spring, which is a big problem the way the Phillies see things. The positive news is that his chronic foot troubles haven't kept him out of the lineup at any point. However, if Burrell isn't the force behind Ryan Howard the Phillies want him to be, he'll likely sit in favor of Greg Dobbs against some right-handers. He's a risky pick for someone with the potential to hit 30 homers and drive in 110-120 runs. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (biceps) was placed on the DL, but he could make his first start as soon as April 7 or 8. With Jon Lieber (oblique) also injured, the club would likely to turn to Triple-A left-hander J.A. Happ if Garcia experiences a setback. ? The Phillies will likely carry Michael Bourn initially if Chris Coste is forced to the DL. Because it would stunt his development, the team isn't going to want to use Bourn as a bench player all season long, though he'd come in handy as a defensive replacement for Burrell and a pinch-runner. If a larger role ever opens up for the 24-year-old ? perhaps because of an Aaron Rowand injury ? his basestealing ability could give him considerable value in NL-only leagues.

Pittsburgh - [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3803"]Jose Bautista[/URL] has been an in an awful slump since being named the Pirates' third baseman (not that he was hitting well in the first place), but it's doubtful manager Jim Tracy would embarrass himself by switching to Jose Castillo so soon. Castillo needs to have Freddy Sanchez (knee) go on the DL and then begin the year on a tear if he's going to have much of a chance. However, Sanchez might be ready for Opening Day and probably wouldn't miss more than five or six games if he isn't. ? The Pirates cut Luis Matos despite the veteran's strong spring, making Nate McLouth a nice pick at $2-$3. McLouth still isn't assured of a roster spot, but as awful as Chris Duffy has been so far, the team has to carry a legitimate backup in center field. McLouth had seven homers and 10 steals in 270 at-bats last season. He'd likely outhit Duffy if given the chance, and he might be no worse than right fielder Xavier Nady against right-handers. While McLouth would be a downgrade defensively in center fielder, he is a better right fielder than Nady, making him especially worth watching.

St. Louis - One of the big concerns in St. Louis is who will close if Jason Isringhausen goes down with another injury this year. The bullpen is already stretched thin, especially with Josh Kinney out for the year. Had Izzy suffered a setback this spring, perhaps Braden Looper or Adam Wainwright would have rejoined the pen. However, the Cardinals won't want to take that step if both Looper and Wainwright remain successful during the season. Of the two, Looper has a better chance of returning to a relief role, mostly because he's less likely to become a quality starter. The best option of those currently in the pen is Brad Thompson, a good $1-$2 pick anyway because of his win potential. If Isringhausen suffers another season-ending injury, it's likely the Cardinals would be forced to trade for another closer. ? Jim Edmonds (shoulder, foot) will be in center field on Sunday night against Tom Glavine in the Mets. Absent will be Juan Encarnacion, who is at least a couple of weeks behind following offseason wrist surgery. Scott Spiezio will be worth using until Encarnacion return. Skip Schumaker received the open roster spot.

San Diego - Mike Cameron has a strained right hamstring, putting his status for Opening Day in some doubt. Cameron is one of baseball's most underrated players, but since last year was as good as it gets for him offensively and he remains an injury risk, I'm not recommending drafting him this year. ? The Padres' left field platoon of Terrmel Sledge and Jose Cruz Jr. should give the Padres acceptable production while eating up very little payroll, but neither player is going to be very helpful in NL-only leagues. Sledge's home runs in Arizona will turn into doubles or outs in San Diego, and he's not going to make up for mediocre power numbers with any steals. Likewise, Cruz ceased being a basestealer years ago. Sledge isn't more than a $6 player, and Cruz, who will start against lefties, is just a $1 pick. ? Once past the top three of Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink and Cla Meredith, the San Diego bullpen isn't as interesting as usual. I do believe Heath Bell will contribute in NL-only leagues, but Doug Brocail, Mike Thompson and Rule 5 pick Kevin Cameron probably won't. Also, Meredith, who has allowed 22 hits in 10 1/3 innings, could very well disappoint.

San Francisco - Armando Benitez had another very good week and is now sporting a 10/0 K/BB ratio in 8 1/3 innings. Brian Wilson, on the other hand, has given up eight runs in his last five appearances. Since the Giants have no one they can count on to replace Benitez and they lost the top suitor for his services when the Marlins acquired Julio, it seems safe to assume Benitez is going to be a Giant for at least a few more months. Maybe Wilson will prove to be ready for the job by the trade deadline. ? Rich Aurilia was able to return from a strained groin on Thursday. Ryan Klesko is also healthy for the moment and has been the better hitter this spring, but the starting job at first base figures to be Aurilia's alone at the start of the year. ? No official word yet, but it looks like Jonathan Sanchez will be in the bullpen. With Russ Ortiz securing the opening in the team's rotation, the other option was for the Giants to send the left-hander back to Triple-A to start. The club has said Sanchez won't be asked to switch roles once the season gets going. There's no better way to get a young pitcher hurt than to have him go from the bullpen to the rotation in the middle of the season, so it'd be for the best if they held to that.

Washington - Nook Logan (groin) will be ready for Opening Day after all, meaning Kory Casto is expected to head to Triple-A. Ryan Church is expected to be the primary left fielder, though he's hardly out of the woods yet. Chris Snelling's struggles the last two weeks have helped Church's case, but the Nationals are going to want to take a look at Casto sooner or later. ? Maybe Casto's first chance will come at first base. Dmitri Young is 5-for-27 since his quick start, and the reports on his defense have been less than encouraging. Larry Broadway was due to play first base in Triple-A, but the Nationals could further Casto's education there instead. ? With a .419 average, Cristian Guzman has been the Nationals' leading hitter this year. He's also poised to hit second in the team's lineup, giving him at least a little upside in NL-only leagues. Still, he's not going to put up power numbers and his career .298 OBP suggests that it's going to be very difficult for him to score runs in one of the game's worst lineups. It will mostly come down to whether he resumes stealing bases. He's attempted just one steal this spring, and he last swiped more than 10 bases in 2003. I just can't see spending more than $2-$3 on him.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Week That Was
If you are a sports fan, you have to love the next few days ? final four and opening day all in the course of three days! Yes! For me, I am just glad to be back gracing the pages of Rotoworld in the hopes of giving you all a tidbit or two that may make the difference in your strive for fantasy baseball nirvana (and yes, for my incredulous, dubious, and good natured friends Hope and Laura who mocked me, there are some people who do care what I think about baseball).

Enough of that! (You have to love the writer's device of talking to himself). Seriously, with no week to review, I wanted to share some experiences from the Tout Wars draft last weekend in New York. First, thank you to Jason Grey, Ron Shandler, Lawr Michaels and the gang of experts made famous in Sam Walker's Fantasyland. I relish the chance to play with the best of the best. Below ? a review of what Rick Wolf and I did, why we did it, etc.

SMART 3.0. ? This year, Rick and I tweaked the SMART strategy in the hopes of returning to the top of the heap. As those of you familiar with this column know, SMART originally stood for Scarcity, Management, Anchor, Relievers, and Team ? our five basic tenets of building a fantasy dynasty. However, having been burned by the likes of Rich Harden, Mark Prior, etc, we are no longer going to rely on one anchor starter. Rather, our goal now is to grab 3.0 solid starters and build a staff around them. Thus, we have changed the A in SMART to Age, which really means we avoid old, injury prone and risky players.

How Did We Do? Considering that we were up against the best of the best who know, because some do read our columns, what we want to do and why, I think we did pretty well. We jumped out early and spent much of our budget on solid, low-risk producers. We filled the scarce infield positions with Lyle Overbay (22), Brian Roberts (25), Michael Young (27) and Adrian Beltre (21). All of those players are in their prime and there are many reasons to believe they will be better than last year. Overbay shows power trending upward with no average reduction, Roberts has proven that he is no fluke, Young hit 52 doubles last year (more will clear the fences this year) and will run more often under Ron Washington, and Beltre is just 27 coming off of a big second half and strong spring.

Our outfield is a lesson in having to be flexible. We wanted to grab ARod ? clearly the best 3B and maybe the best AL player. However, when Mike Siano went 43, we had to pass. So, we grabbed Vlad at 37, got a superstar, and had 7 bucks more than we would have had. The next object lesson is our purchase of Jay Gibbons for 19. Yes, it is an overpay, but not from where we were at the draft. We recognized that Gibbons was the last of the quality power hitters left and knew we would be hurting if we did not grab him. I much prefer Gibbons at 19 to the 20 bucks paid for Jason Kubel or the 19 bucks paid for Nick Punto shortly after we rostered Gibbons.

On the pitching side, our 3.0 starters are Mussina, Pettitte, and Cabrera for a total of 39 ? that is a ton of wins and K's for under 40 bucks. Oh, and we got this guy named Rivera to close. It never hurts to roster the best there has ever been! The key to our pen, however, is we grabbed high strikeout relievers with high vulture potential from the Yankee pen (Farnsworth and Vizcaino) for all of 5 bucks total. They will not only produce, they will get the saves if (perish the thought) anything happened to Mo.

Other bits and bites ? our biggest mistakes of the draft were spending 9 on Cantu and 2 on McClung when it looks like neither may have a job. Not very SMART as T stands for good team, not Devil Rays. Best bargains? Bartolo Colon at 1. I am not sure he will return to form, but Matt Berry groaned so loudly when we nabbed Bart that I already feel we earned a profit. Our other bargain is Rondell White at 2. Given that Kubel went for 20, it is hard not to love Rondell.

All in all, I think we did well, will compete, and had a great time doing it. Let me know your thoughts.

All right, enough of me. Last and not quite least, we have a lengthy and informative ramble from the master of the bottom of the page in this season's first "Schultz Says":

"Yawwwwwn! Well, that was a long winter. I feel like like I've hibernated like the Chicago Bears offense in the Super Bowl. Oh, sorry - football reference. That's right, baseball season.

I am guessing that there are a large number of you preparing for drafts and auctions this weekend. I sat through a few this past week and couldn't help but notice some of the ridiculous logic being used to obtain or reject players. Here are the 4 dumbest things I heard:

1. He looks great/horrible in spring training. Spring training stats are the biggest red herring since CTU started immediately arresting the wrong mole every single season on 24. The only thing spring training is good for is evaluating who is healthy and who is not. Otherwise, the stats are completely meaningless - I don't care how you spin it. Sammy Sosa's power spurt? Means nothing. Daisuke Matsuzaka's unhittability - meaningless. Grady Sizemore's spring training batting average? Way below the Mendoza line - are you really worried? Seriously, pay no attention to March statistics. Remember, Gabe Gross once led the major leagues in spring training home runs. Do you want him? Did you ever want him? Forget spring training: Go with the guys who you think are going to be good this year.

2. He had a bad year in 2006. While there is some sound truth to looking to the past as an indicator of the future, don't take that maxim too far. Unless you play in a bizarro league, last year's stats don't count, this year's do. If you think Kelly Johnson is going to have a fine year at second base (and I think he will be fantastic there), ignore his past below-average statistics. Leave those for his 2005 owner. This works both ways. HGH worries aside, Gary Matthews Jr.'s breakout year probably shouldn't leave you as excited for this year's stats as the Angels think they are paying for. Forget 2006: Go with the guys who you think are going to be good THIS year.

3. He's coming off an injury. Unless you are Cal Ripken, injuries are a fact of life for any athlete. If you decided not to take a risk on player's coming off of injury, you probably gave up on Jim Thome, Nomar Garciaparra and Magglio Ordonez in 2006 and let other owners get them late or acquire them cheaply. I'm not suggesting that you completely ignore a player's injury history - especially if they pitch for the Cubs - but do a little research into what injury someone's coming back from. You can't predict freak injuries and broken bones, but you can come back from them quite well. A pitcher who suffered arm trouble and believed rest might work should be cause for worry but a pitcher who opted to remedy a past problem, such as Octavio Dotel, Pedro Martinez or Bartolo Colon might be worth a wise bid or low round pick. Don't panic over a past injury: Go with the guys who you think are going to good this year.

4. I read that . . . Even if it wouldn't be biting the hand that feeds me, I'd be the first to trumpet the praises of rotisserie sports sites and publications. 99% of us can't spend every waking hour following 32 spring training camps and, if we did, probably couldn't muster a genuine interest in the Devil Rays and Royals camps anyway. Thankfully there are people to do that for us. However, use the reports wisely. Knowing who's going to close in Cincinnati - well, that's important. Who's going to have a breakout MVP season or be the sleeper pitcher to get? Well, that's something you need to figure out for yourself. Once an expert's sleeper list gets published, the players on it aren't quite sleepers any more. If you are going to win your league, you're going to do it with your own knowledge, making some decisions that you know are sound but could get you mocked at the time. Inform yourself, but then make your own decisions and laugh at the end of the year. Forget what someone else thinks: Trust yourself and go with the guys who you think are going to be good this year.

After all this cogent advice, let me delve into the realm of voodoo. Long time readers may recall that I've mentioned that every year my home league manages to stick me with a player or two at our auction. I call out someone I don't want for $1 that I think someone else will bid $2 and hear crickets. Funny thing is, they always turn out to be great. In past year's this list has included a resurgent Reggie Sanders, an emerging Brady Clark and, just last year, Alexis Rios. This year the crickets came out for $1 bids on Jeremy Hermida and Matt Murton. If history repeats itself, look for one of them - I'm betting on Murton - to go nuts this year.

So, go out and get the guys who you think are going to be good this year - you'll be glad that you did.

Game On!"

Response: Good stuff and even if it was not, I cannot tease Schultz before the season even starts.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Opening Dose
Hello and welcome to the beginning of seven straight months of non-stop baseball. I'm smiling just from typing that sentence, which also happens to kick off another season of Rotoworld's "Daily Dose." Each and every weekday from now until October, this will be the place to find the latest news and analysis about injuries, lineup changes, roster moves, notable performances, and everything else that goes on during the marathon that is a 162-game season. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks

My name is Aaron Gleeman and I'll be your host, but with a full slate of games on the schedule let's cut the pleasantries and introduction short, and get right to the good stuff. After all, there's actual baseball to watch today! While fans across the country wear out their remote controls, here are some notes from around baseball ?

* Chris Carpenter's debut against the Mets Sunday night was somewhat concerning between the five runs he allowed and the decreased velocity he showed, but last year provides a reason not to worry too much. Carpenter began last season by coughing up nine hits in five innings against the Phillies, with two of them going for homers. He recovered to post a 2.99 ERA over his final 216.2 innings and served up just 19 more homers. Watch the radar-gun readings, but breathe easy. eog.com

* Healthy or not, manager Ozzie Guillen said Sunday that Scott Podsednik will sit on Opening Day against left-hander C.C. Sabathia. Podsednik struggled against just about everyone last year, hitting .261 with a .683 OPS, and hit a lowly .216 against lefties. Meanwhile, Pablo Ozuna batted .322 against southpaws and has hit .301 against them over his five-year career, giving Guillen a perfect platoon partner for Podsednik.

It's possible that Podsednik is being benched simply because of how overpowering Carsten Charles can be against left-handed hitters, but that Guillen is willing to yank Podsednik out of the Opening Day lineup suggests that it could be a year-long plan. If so, that would give Podsednik a boost in batting average while more importantly robbing him of quite a few steals. Ozuna is worth watching, because with an increase in playing time he has enough speed to be an asset. The Player's Paradise

* The Reds thought Dustin Hermanson looked so good early in camp that they strongly hinted at giving him the first crack at the closer job to begin the season. However, as spring training wore on Hermanson struggled to regain his form and velocity after missing most of last season with back problems. Cincinnati released him Sunday, meaning Hermanson amazingly went from being the favorite for saves to being out of a job within the span of about a week.

Cutting him loose came as a surprise, because the Reds had the ability to stash him away in a low-pressure role. He'll latch on somewhere else, perhaps with a big-league job, but Hermanson's chances of collecting saves will never be stronger than they were 10 days ago. The Reds will turn back to David Weathers for ninth-inning duties, although Mike Stanton could pick up some chances depending on the matchup, and Todd Coffey and Bill Bray are sleepers. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football? - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice

* With left-hander Scott Kazmir starting for the Devil Rays, Josh Phelps will get the nod over Doug Mientkiewicz at first base Monday for the Yankees. Phelps' strong play this spring (14-for-35, three homers) has prompted manager Joe Torre to favor a relatively strict platoon to begin the season, after initially saying that he expected Mientkiewicz to get the bulk of the at-bats against righties and lefties.

A lot of people have pointed to Robinson Cano batting eighth as the best example of New York's amazing lineup, but having a guy like Phelps around to hit ninth against lefties isn't a bad indicator of lineup depth either. Given around 200 at-bats, most of them against lefties, Phelps has the potential to smack 10-15 homers. He batted .298 with 13 homers, 36 RBIs, and an .894 OPS in 198 at-bats against lefties between 2004 and 2005.

AL Quick Hits: With Octavio Dotel (oblique) sidelined, David Riske will begin the season as the Royals' closer ? Curt Schilling plans to "pitch to contact" this year for the first time, which could cut down on his strikeouts ? General manager Ken Williams said Sunday that the White Sox have ended contract negotiations with pending free agents Jermaine Dye, Mark Buehrle, and Tadahito Iguchi, saying the team will "deal with it after the season" ? Jonathan Papelbon will be available if the Red Sox have a save opportunity Monday, saying his injured ankle "feels fine" ? Manager Buddy Bell still hasn't decided how he'll dispense the playing time behind the plate, saying Sunday that he's "not sure how we're going to go about" keeping both Jason LaRue and John Buck happy ? Kansas City optioned Joey Gathright to Triple-A Sunday, so you'll have to look elsewhere for cheap, empty steals.

NL Quick Hits: After initially setting the deadline at Opening Day, Carlos Zambrano has decided to give himself a little more time to work out a long-term deal with the Cubs ? Scott Hairston will get the Opening Day nod in left field and bat fifth behind cleanup man [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3586"]Chad Tracy[/URL], with Eric Byrnes shifting to right field in place of Carlos Quentin (shoulder) ? Tom Glavine's win against the Cardinals Sunday night was the 291st of his career ? Barry Bonds very quietly ended spring training with a .333 batting average and seven homers in 45 at-bats ? Adrian Gonzalez's new four-year deal with the Padres is worth $9.5 million in guaranteed money, but does not buy out any free agency ? Now that he needs Tommy John surgery, Chris Denorfia has gone from being a solid NL-only sleeper to being out for the season ? As part of San Diego's platoon in left field, Jose Cruz Jr. will start against left-hander Barry Zito Tuesday, with Terrmel Sledge sitting.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

AL Rookie of the Year Preview
Welcome back to the Prospect Report. It's been a long off-season and we're all excited to get back into action, but first an observation.

Everyone following the fantasy baseball industry has seen the growth in demand for leagues featuring prospects as well as coverage of the minor leagues. Never has this trend been more evident then when MLB finally decided to start televising its Amateur Draft this season. It's nice to see the sport embracing growth and the diehard fan, and the decision can only help to increase the interest in leagues valuing prospects.

As coverage and interest in the minors continues to grow, it's going to be even more difficult to succeed in that arena. We here at Rotoworld are dedicated to keeping you a step ahead. In addition to offering the variety of columns in the Prospects Report with renewed vigor, we'll be adding a continuously updated Top 100 for our Season Pass subscribers. We'll be constantly reevaluating these rankings, but also updating eligibility, highlighting trends, and providing notes on those involved. Given all of the other useful tools provided in Season Pass, it's worth checking out.

As we do every year, we'll start the campaign off with a Rookie of the Year preview. This is the AL installment, with the NL version following tomorrow. Last year's preview was only mildly successful, with my second ranked player in the AL (Justin Verlander) taking home the award and the 13th rated Hanley Ramirez surprisingly grabbing the NL hardware. You can find last year's preview here.

[SIZE=+1]American League[/SIZE]

Daisuke Matsuzaka ? RHP Red Sox ? 3:2 (Odds of winning)
Expectations are going to be sky-high for Dice-K after a winter in which the Red Sox bid six billion yen just to speak with him and then invested another $52+ million for six years of his services. Throw in the massive amount of Japanese media surrounding the ace right-hander combined with the usual fervor surrounding the Red Sox, and nothing short of winning this award will be considered a success. Luckily for Boston, Matsuzaka is a good bet to fulfill those expectations.

Dice-K's stuff grades out like a true ace, thanks to a mid-90s fastball, excellent changeup, and diverse repertoire of breaking pitches. He's used those offerings to perform exceptionally well in both Japan and at the World Baseball Classic, displaying both the command and strikeout rate necessary to translate well in the majors. Throw in that those around the right-hander have praised his intelligence, work ethic, and desire to perform, and there are the makings of something special here.

To live up to expectations and hold off Delmon Young and Alex Gordon in the Rookie of the Year race, Matsuzaka will probably have to win 16 games and post an ERA below 3.60. I believe he's likely to do that, and perhaps even a good deal more. As such, he enters 2007 the American League's clear favorite, and someone to target in all formats.

Alex Gordon ? 3B Royals ? 4:1
To say that Gordon is the complete package is an understatement. The left-hander has the offensive skills to hit for average while stroking 40 doubles and 30 homers. He also has enough speed to steal 22 bases in the minors last season, and he's far from an embarrassment with the leather. Throw in that he's just 23 years old, has patience at the plate, and is debuting in the majors after just one season of professional baseball, and you have a commodity worth investing heavily in.

Gordon is the perfect combination of polish and skills, and should have little trouble adjusting to major league pitching as a result. A .290 batting average to go with 25 homers and 100 RBI isn't even his full upside. He'd be the clear favorite had Matsuzaka stayed in Japan.

Delmon Young ? OF Devil Rays ? 6:1
At the end of last winter, it looked like Young would enter 2007 as the favorite to take home the ROY award. Instead, the Red Sox brought in Japan's best pitcher and the Royals promoted the one hitter who rivals Young in ability. Even though he's significantly less likely to win the award now, it'd be surprising if Young didn't crack the top three. Due to his power-speed combination and lack of plate discipline, he's a better candidate in fantasy ROY balloting. Anything short of a 20-20 season would be disappointing.

Kei Igawa ? LHP Yankees ? 10:1
If Igawa could somehow overtake Matsuzaka in the Rookie of the Year balloting, Red Sox fans wouldn't hear the end of it for quite some time. Unfortunately for the pinstripe faithful, that just isn't likely to happen. Still, Igawa is a quality pitcher in his own right, and the left-hander is plenty capable of providing 200 innings of around league average production. Even despite some control problems this spring, he's worth pursuing at up to $14 in AL-only formats. Mixed leaguers should monitor him closely.

Matt Garza ? RHP Twins ? 12:1
The fantasy world let out a collective grunt when the Twins chose both Sidney Ponson and Carlos Silva over Garza for the club's final two rotation spots. A sore neck had limited the young right-hander early in March, but he gave up one run in ten innings after returning from the injury. The Twins may be hoping to build up his arm strength while also giving him more confidence after a poor stint with the big league club late last season.

In any event, it seems like a forgone conclusion that Garza will be back in the majors before April is out, and he's still likely to make 25+ big league starts this year. With the skills and track record to become a legitimate ace in time, Garza will have a shot at the award if everything breaks right.

Phillip Hughes ? RHP Yankees ? 14:1
Hughes certainly has the talent to win the award, but it's unlikely that he'll be promoted early enough in the season to garner the needed counting stats. However, should injuries strike the big club's rotation and Hughes starts quickly at Triple-A Scranton, he'd jump up this list to number four. With a big league fastball and curveball to go with a solid changeup and good command, Hughes shouldn't have too much trouble adjusting to life in the majors. His 138/32 K/BB ratio in 116 innings at Double-A Trenton as a 20 year-old last season shows how advanced he really is. Stash him away in all formats.

Dustin Pedroia ? 2B Red Sox ? 15:1
Pedroia struggled over an 89 at-bat trial late in the season last year, hitting just .191 and posting an OPS under 600. However, the right-hander displayed his normal keen eye at the plate, walking as many times as he struck out. That strong control of the strike zone (77/125 K/BB in minors) is what allows Pedroia to succeed, and as long as he continues with that approach the batting average will follow.

Since he'll also draw a fair number of walks and play good defense, Pedroia may end up resembling an average regular as a rookie. His lack of power and ideal speed makes him a mediocre selection in AL-only formats, however.

Akinori Iwamura ? 3B Devil Rays ? 16:1
The third import on the list, Iwamura falls behind the Japanese pitchers because he lacks a balanced offensive attack. The left-hander strikes out too often to hit for a high average, and he's not adept at going the other way or drawing many walks. On the plus side, Iwamura does have decent power, is good defensively, and has a starting job locked up. He should do well enough in the counting stats to be worth $12 in AL-only formats, but don't get fooled by his star-quality numbers in Japan.

Adam Miller ? RHP Indians ? 16:1
Miller is the third player to crack the top 10 despite not starting the season in the majors. If the goal of this exercise were to predict the top 10, he may not have made the list. However, it's going to take a very good season to top the threesome of Matsuzaka, Gordon, and Young, and thus I'm focusing more on potential than certainty at the moment.

Miller has the pedigree to please even the highest standards. He recovered nicely from previous elbow problems last season, showing both the strikeout rate and command that made him a top prospect following his 2004 campaign. The 22 year-old right-hander can touch the mid-90s, and also has two quality off-speed offerings in his slider and changeup. Miller would need Paul Byrd to struggle or an injury to get an opportunity, but his status as an elite prospects means he's worth monitoring closely.

Travis Buck ? OF Athletics ? 20:1
Surprisingly given a job out of Spring Training, Buck has the talent to develop into an above average corner outfielder. However, still just 23 years old and having played only one half season above Single-A, the left-hander out of Arizona State is less likely to produce near peak levels than most rookies. Since he isn't particularly fast and will likely always be more of a gap power hitter, he's not a fantasy player's delight either.

That Buck will be platooned will depress his counting stats, further limiting his likelihood of winning the award as well as his fantasy value. That said, he should still post solid numbers across the board and is worth targeting at up to $7 in AL-only formats. He's a better selection in keeper formats, as he'll develop into a .300 hitter with 20-homer power in a few years.

The Field (25:1) ? Adam Lind (OF, Blue Jays), John Danks (LHP, White Sox), Elijah Dukes (OF, Devil Rays), Juan Salas (RHP, Devil Rays), Hideki Okajima (LHP, Red Sox), Dustin Moseley (LHP, Angels), Nick Masset (RHP, White Sox), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4441"]Andrew Miller[/URL] (LHP, Tigers), Billy Butler (OF, Royals), Jeff Niemann (RHP, Devil Rays), Charlie Haeger (RHP, White Sox), Brandon Morrow (RHP, Mariners), Jason Windsor (RHP, Athletics), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1351"]Brandon Wood[/URL] (SS/3B, Angels), Justin Huber (1B, Royals), Ryan Sweeney (OF, White Sox), Adam Jones (OF, Mariners), Jeff Mathis (C, Angels), Wes Littleton (RHP, Rangers), Josh Fields (3B, White Sox), Josh Rupe (RHP, Rangers), Evan Longoria (3B, Devil Rays), Tom Mastny (RHP, Indians), Tony Pena Jr. (SS, Royals), Joakim Soria (RHP, Royals), Brian Stokes (RHP, Devil Rays).

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

King for a Day
With all due respect to Ben Sheets, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and all the other guys who had big Opening Day performances, Felix Hernandez stole the show. At just 20 years old he was the youngest Opening Day starter since Dwight Gooden in 1985, and King Felix was about as good as a pitcher can be in overpowering the A's. On Day 1 of the season Hernandez showed exactly why I've long been touting him as the clear No. 3 fantasy starter in the AL this season.

Actually, despite all the disagreement and criticism that statement received prior to the season starting, it may seem a little understated now. In eight innings of work, Hernandez racked up a dozen strikeouts and a dozen ground-ball outs, with zero outs coming through the air. Missing bats and keeping the ball on the ground are the recipe from dominance, and Hernandez has the potential to wed those two skills better than anyone in baseball.

As good as Hernandez's masterpiece looks in the boxscore, it was even more impressive on television. He blew Oakland hitters away with mid-90s fastballs, often jamming them up and in, and baffled them with all kinds of ridiculous off-speed stuff. It was a tour de force performance made even better by the fact that it came from a 20-year-old on Opening Day, and it's unlikely that you'll see more than a half-dozen starts this season that are any better.

Well, a half-dozen starts by someone other than Hernandez, at least. While my fellow Hernandez keeper-league owners and I celebrate his Opening Day showing?I have him in a Diamond-Mind league with no salary cap, so I've spent the morning having visions of getting all 300 of his wins?here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Keeper-league owners who've held onto B.J. Upton may finally be on the verge of their big reward following Jorge Cantu's demotion to Triple-A. While Cantu was demanding a trade and saying he wouldn't report to Durham, Upton got the Opening Day start at second base and went 2-for-4 with a run, RBI, and stolen base. Cantu will surely relent and report to Triple-A at some point, but the Devil Rays may simply decide to deal him anyway, handing Upton the full-time job.

His defense at shortstop drew a ton of heat in the minors, but Upton's glove works well at second base and the shorter throws should cut down on the problems his erratic arm presented. At the plate, he has big-time fantasy potential and could move into one of the first two spots in manager Joe Maddon's lineup. Given 500 at-bats?whether at second base or in the super-utility role Maddon talked about this spring?Upton has 40-steal potential and enough pop to go deep 10-15 times.

* Some Johan Santana owners might be concerned after his less-than-stellar showing against the Orioles Monday night, but they shouldn't be. Santana came into the game with a 4.42 career ERA in April and struggled in his 2004, 2005, and 2006 debuts. Giving up four runs over six innings against Baltimore qualifies as Santana's best debut since becoming a full-time rotation member and he's already matched the April win totals for his Cy Young-winning 2004 and 2006 campaigns.

* Carl Pavano struggled in his surprise Opening Day assignment against Tampa Bay, giving up five runs before being yanked in the fifth inning. Despite that, I still expect Pavano to greatly out-perform expectations this year, although to be fair that would simply mean winning a handful of games at this point. New York's defense hurt him Monday and, as the New York Post pointed out, the 644 days Pavano went between starts is the most for an Opening Day starter since Vinegar Bend Mizell returned in 1956 after two-plus years in the military.

* Esteban Loaiza has had a setback in his recovery from shoulder problems, canceling his scheduled bullpen session Monday and Triple-A start Thursday. Loaiza is expected to undergo an MRI Tuesday to determine the source of the lingering tightness, but said "this one is worse" than the shoulder problems that kept him out for a month last season. Chad Gaudin will fill in for now, but Jason Windsor would likely get the nod if a long-term replacement is needed.

AL Quick Hits: Ramon Hernandez (oblique) is expected to be out until at least Friday, with Paul Bako picking up starts behind the plate in his place ? Owner Arte Moreno said Monday that the Angels would likely shy away from handing Alex Rodriguez a huge long-term deal if he becomes a free agent this winter ? Johnny Damon left Monday's game with sore calves, but said afterward that he expects to be back in the lineup Wednesday ? I've criticized the Gil Meche contract quite a bit this offseason, so it's only fair to point out that he held the Red Sox to one run over 7.1 innings Monday to win his Royals debut ? Amazingly, Curt Schilling's four-inning start opposite Meche was his shortest since way back in 1997 ? Not only did the Indians knock Jose Contreras out of Monday's start in the second inning, Jhonny Peralta said afterward that Contreras "just wasn't throwing as hard as last year."

NL Quick Hits: In a sign of how far away he is from making an impact with the Cubs, Mark Prior is expected to remain behind in spring training until he works up enough stamina to make starts at Triple-A ? Ted Lilly has been hit with the flu bug, which could impact his debut start Wednesday ? Manager Phil Garner inexplicably had Adam Everett hitting in the second spot Monday, which would single-handedly hurt Lance Berkman's RBI totals if it continues for very long ? To show just how difficult it can be to predict who'll end up with saves, Bob Wickman, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano each pitched a scoreless inning Monday, yet it was Chad Paronto who picked up the save ? Manager Grady Little has avoided officially saying he'll platoon Matt Kemp, but he'll get the start Tuesday against left-hander Chris Capuano ? After being demoted to Triple-A, Jose Capellan has reportedly requested a trade.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Save or Baby?
In the unlikely event that Joe Nathan blows a save Wednesday night, he'll have a damn good excuse. Nathan's pregnant wife is expected to have labor induced at a local hospital, with Nathan planning to stay with her while monitoring the Twins-Orioles game. If it looks like a save might be possible?Nathan has saved each of the first two games?he's planning to drive to the nearby Metrodome around the sixth or seventh inning, hastily get into uniform, and head to the bullpen.

Of course, like many plans this one sounds a whole lot easier to pull off on paper. Getting away from the hospital while his wife is in mid-labor would be a far more impressive feat than recording three outs against the Orioles, mostly because Nathan doesn't have to live with Miguel Tejada, Nick Markakis, and Brian Roberts for the rest of his life. If Nathan is unavailable, that means a) you know who won the argument, and b) Juan Rincon will likely get ninth-inning duties.

While men everywhere file Nathan's situation away in the back of their minds for when they might need to use it themselves, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Monday in this space I wondered about Chris Carpenter's concerning lack of velocity during his rough Opening Day start and now we know the source of his missing miles per hour. The Cardinals announced that Carpenter will skip his next turn in the rotation with what is being called elbow inflammation. The fact that an MRI hasn't been scheduled suggests that the team may not think it's overly serious, although it's possible that an MRI isn't an option until swelling subsides.

Because of an off day Thursday, the Cardinals can push Adam Wainwright, Anthony Reyes, and Kip Wells up one day in the rotation, leaving a vacancy April 10. It's possible that Carpenter could be ready to return at that point?no timetable has been established publicly?but if not the team may call up prospect Chris Narveson to start. Losing Carpenter would crush the Cardinals and his fantasy owners, so check for frequent updates on the Rotoworld news page.

* Carlos Quentin's partially torn labrum allowed him to hit off a tee Tuesday, but he said afterward that "the best-case scenario is to rehab it for two, three weeks." Meanwhile, manager Bob Melvin has started to praise Quentin's replacement in the Diamondbacks' outfield, Scott Hairston. Hairston batted fifth in each of Arizona's first two games, going 3-for-9 with a double and two RBIs after hitting .419 with an MLB-leading seven homers this spring.

Melvin said Tuesday that "there's no question" Hairston "can do it offensively," adding that "it would be interesting to see what he could do if he got 450, 500 at-bats at the big-league level." Given that I've been saying that exact same thing for the past two years, I obviously couldn't agree more. Better late than never, I suppose, and with a hot start Hairston could steal at-bats from Eric Byrnes even after Quentin returns.

* Washington placed Cristian Guzman and Nook Logan on the disabled list Tuesday, although given the strength of their replacements some might suggest that the injuries could help the Nationals. Manager Manny Acta hasn't decided whether to force a move back to shortstop on Felipe Lopez, who said he'd prefer to stay at second base. If Lopez slides over, Ronnie Belliard would get most of the playing time at second and becomes a solid pickup in NL-only leagues.

If Lopez stays put, fantasy non-factor Josh Wilson would replace Guzman. In the outfield, Ryan Church will switch from left field to center field, with Kory Casto being called up from Triple-A to take over as the regular left fielder. Casto batted second in Acta's lineup Tuesday?going 1-for-4 with a walk?which gives him a value boost and should provide Ryan Zimmerman with more RBI chances than hitting behind an out-machine like Guzman would have.

* It sounds like Lance Cormier is headed to the disabled list after experiencing soreness in his injured shoulder during a long-toss session Tuesday. Kyle Davies would be called up from Triple-A to take his place Sunday and could use the opportunity to force his way into the Braves' rotation for good after a very strong spring. Cormier's DL stint may be backdated to late March, meaning he would be able to return quickly, but that may not be a factor if the setback is serious.

AL Quick Hits: Esteban Loaiza will be shut down for the next week after being diagnosed with a bulging disk in his neck ? Kansas City is still hoping that Octavio Dotel (oblique) can avoid a trip to the disabled list and return by Friday ? Ramon Hernandez (oblique) is now expected to miss at least part of the Orioles' weekend series, making a DL stint more likely ? Mark Buehrle has reportedly told the White Sox that he'll let them match any offer he receives on the open market this offseason, so perhaps his move to St. Louis isn't as likely as many assume ? Cleveland hopes he can avoid surgery, but Indians prospect Tony Sipp will be out until at least midseason because of an elbow injury ? Brandon Morrow looked nervous early, but the No. 5 overall pick in last June's draft recovered for an impressive big-league debut ? Yuniesky Betancourt may miss Friday's game while testifying at a trial in Miami.

NL Quick Hits: Rafael Furcal (ankle) is reportedly at least a week away from returning to the Dodgers' lineup ? Randy Johnson (back) threw 60 pitches Tuesday in the first of two scheduled minor-league starts, keeping him on track for an April 19 return ? Pirates prospect Brad Lincoln, who was picked one spot ahead of Morrow in last June's draft, will miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery Monday ? After throwing a 25-pitch simulated game Tuesday, Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) is on track to come off the disabled list over the weekend ? Contract negotiations between Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs have been put on hold until the Tribune Company is sold ? Astros fans have been calling for Dan Wheeler to replace Brad Lidge as closer, but Wheeler coughed up the lead as a setup man Tuesday, leaving Lidge without a save to blow.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL Rookie of the Year Preview
Welcome to the National League version of the Rookie of the Year preview. The American League ROY preview was discussed Tuesday. Starting next week, we'll begin with the standard Prospect Report format by evaluating callups and profiling those currently in the minors.

[SIZE=+1]National League[/SIZE]

[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] ? OF Diamondbacks ? 4:1
In contrast to the American League, the NL is fairly wide open in the Rookie of the Year race. The talent level is not as strong near the top, and there are a wider variety of candidates who could legitimately be considered strong contenders. That said, [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] has earned the right to be called the early favorite.

After two seasons in the rookie leagues, Young began a three-year trend of repeating an impressive level of performance while moving up a level each year. Starting at Single-A Kannapolis in 2004 and ending up at Triple-A Tucson last year, Young never slugged below .500 or posted an on-base percentage lower than .360. The right-hander also recorded quality walk rates, stole bases at a good percentage, and played Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. Even more impressive, Young did all of this while lowering his strikeout rate substantially every season.

Based on both his performance and tools, Young has all of the skills necessary to become an elite center fielder. He may need a season or two to adjust to big league pitching and contribute a quality batting average, but he's on the right path after improving his plate discipline so dramatically. Young has also never had problems adjusting to the next level before, so perhaps he'll be able to hit .270 to go along with all of the positives outlined above. There's a pretty good chance he ends up with a 20-20 season in 2007, and an OPS near 850 can't be ruled out either. Doing both should allow him to take home the award.

Kevin Kouzmanoff ? 3B Padres ? 6:1
While a troublesome injury history and an advanced age lower Kouzmanoff's stock as a prospect, they don't affect his Rookie of the Year chances near as much. In fact, that Kouzmanoff is already 25 years old may be a positive; he's more mature both physically and at the plate. Since he's also entering the season with a full-time job, Kouzmanoff gets the nod over some better talents.

The right-hander out of the University of Arkansas-Little Rock has done nothing but hit since the Indians made him a sixth round pick back in 2003. In 1,310 career minor league at-bats Kouzmanoff has batted .332/.395/.556 with a solid 215/125 K/BB ratio. And in 2006, Kouzmanoff had his best season to date, hitting over .350 and slugging over .640 in stops at both Double-A Akron and Triple-A Buffalo. A late season promotion to Cleveland didn't go nearly as well, but it was his third level in a year and he didn't embarrass himself.

Traded to San Diego over the winter, Kouzmanoff has the third base job locked up. That he's beginning the year hitting near the bottom of the Padres' lineup may hurt his value, but should he produce as expected he'll move up in short order. The right-hander's batting average will also probably be closer to .280 than to his minor league numbers, but Kouzmanoff should deliver 50+ extra-base hits and could drive in 90 runs if things break right. Staying in the starting lineup may prove to be his biggest challenge given his propensity towards nagging injuries, but he's worthy of a $12 investment in NL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey ? RHP Mets ? 7:1
The ninth selection in the 2005 draft, Pelfrey signed too late to play professionally that season. He debuted at High-A St. Lucie last spring, and was promoted to Double-A after just four dominant starts. It only took 12 more starts at Binghamton before the Mets came calling. Pelfrey didn't pitch all that well in four big league starts after being promoted, and he made only two more starts in the minors before a strained lat muscle sidelined him for the rest of the season. In his three minor league stops combined, the right-hander posted a 2.43 ERA and 109/33 K/BB ratio over 96 1/3 innings pitched.

Pelfrey's fastball is usually in the mid-90s and generates plenty of swing and misses even before he dials it up to 97 or 98 MPH. His curveball and changeup are of more concern, as both need further refinement before he can become the No. 2 starter he's projected to be. It's possible that Pelfrey has made enough progress over the winter to perform well, but his spring training performance was uninspiring and he's likely to be inconsistent to start his career. However, he's one of the most talented players on this list and has won a starting job, so Pelfrey must be considered a contender.

Chris Iannetta ? C Rockies ? 8:1
It's surprising that a Rockies' pitcher is the only player to win a Rookie of the Year award in the franchise's history, but that may change with Iannetta and Troy Tulowitzki around. Iannetta, a fourth round pick out of North Carolina in 2004, possesses a balanced offensive attack that should translate quickly to the majors. He's not going to hit 30 homers even while playing half his games in Coors Field, but some 20-homer seasons to go with a .300 batting average and a quality on-base percentage could be on the way.

Since Iannetta may hit .290 with 15 homers right away, he's worth targeting in NL-only and two-catcher leagues. Rookie of the Year voters will certainly discount his statistics given the Coors Field factor, but mediocre outings from the players listed above Iannetta may allow him to sneak in and steal the award. That catchers are typically slower to develop and thus have a hard time winning ROY awards is also working against him, but I'm a believer in his bat and think he's got a decent shot at bucking the trend.

Troy Tulowitzki ? SS Rockies ? 10:1
A star at Long Beach State before being drafted seventh overall in 2005, Tulowitzki was seen as a polished hitter who would advance quickly. Indeed, he began his professional career at High-A Modesto and acquitted himself nicely, posting an 800 OPS and solid strike zone judgment. The Rockies decided to fast track the youngster, and promoted him to Double-A Tulsa to start the 2006 campaign. He again showed quality defensive skills and a strong bat, hitting .291/.370/.473 with a 71/46 K/BB ratio. A late season promotion to the show didn't go as well, but that he was able to advance so quickly was impressive.

When discussing Kouzmanoff and prospects that may have better long-term projections, Tulowitzki was one player that was coming to mind. The 22 year-old right-hander has an impressive background and should develop into one of the NL's better shortstops in time, but he doesn't have as much experience against advanced pitching as you'd like to see in a rookie. I wouldn't expect him to perform poorly, but a full breakout is likely at least another year away. Still, if Tulowitzki is able to skip Triple-A entirely while maintaining a similar level of production, he'll be a force in the ROY voting.

Homer Bailey ? RHP Reds ? 12:1
The 20 year-old Bailey is well documented as one of baseball's two best pitching prospects. His mid-90s fastball and plus curve are both big league pitches right now, and although his changeup is still a work in progress, it didn't stop Bailey from posting a 156/50 K/BB ratio in 138 innings between Single-A Sarasota and Double-A Chattanooga last season. There was some thought to carrying the right-hander out of spring training, but the Reds wisely decided against it after Bailey struggled to miss bats in the early going.

Bailey will develop into an ace pitcher if he can avoid injuries and continue to hone his craft, but he'll probably need another coupe of months in the minors before he's ready to be an asset to the Reds. Even after being promoted, he's likely another few years from reaching his peak. Still, with players this talented, it's a mistake to ever completely rule out early successes. Since the Reds lack pitching depth, Bailey could get a quick call to the majors if he starts well in Triple-A. He'd have a good shot at some hardware if that were to happen, and Bailey would need to be claimed in most leagues as a result.

Tim Lincecum ? RHP Giants ? 12:1
One of the more intriguing prospects around, Lincecum could be the Giants' No. 3 starter or even their closer before the year is out. The 22 year-old right-hander features a mid-90s fastball and a devastating curve, and also mixes in a slider and changeup. That he gets unreal extension from a somewhat unorthodox delivery adds to Lincecum's dominance, helping him post a 58/12 K/BB ratio in 31 2/3 innings after signing last summer. Lincecum is listed at just 5'10" and 160 pounds, but his body hasn't had problems holding up thus far and he frequently gets in extra work between starts.

It's clear that I'm a big believer in the right-hander after ranking him the second best fantasy prospect in last June's draft, but being behind the eight ball in terms of playing time is a big detriment in terms of ROY voting. A speedy call up might vault him to second on this list, but it'd be a quick reversal in thinking by the Giants and June is probably the more likely scenario to see Lincecum in the majors. Still up in the air is what role Lincecum might have when being recalled, but I'm guessing the Giants do the smart thing and keep him starting games. He'd have a better chance at winning the award as a starter, and his ace potential makes him worth monitoring closely.

Hunter Pence ? OF Astros ? 16:1
Pence wouldn't have made the top 10 if this list were compiled in the off-season, but after hitting .571 and slugging 1.071 in 28 at-bats this spring he has to be considered. Said spring performance led the Astros to consider carrying the right-hander to start he season, but they chose to stick with Chris Burke in center field instead. Should Burke or the right field platoon of Luke Scott and Jason Lane struggle or fall victim to injuries, Pence would be called upon as the replacement.

With a big, strong body and a powerful swing, Pence could show 25-homer potential in the majors as soon as this season. He'd also likely hit .270 with a fair number of doubles and walks, so he might approach being an average regular. If his spring performance is indicative of Pence raising his game, a quick promotion might allow him to challenge for the award. As is, he's more likely to help fantasy teams in the second half.

Micah Owings ? RHP Diamondbacks ? 18:1
An outstanding two-way player at Georgia Tech and then Tulane, Owings' ascent to the majors as a pitcher less than two years after being drafted is rather remarkable. He's spent all of 18 months focusing solely on pitching, and he's already handled Triple-A batters by posting a solid 3.70 ERA and 61/34 K/BB ratio in 87 2/3 innings for Tucson. The right-hander surprisingly won a rotation spot this spring after recording a 3.50 ERA and 15/6 K/BB ratio in 18 innings.

It's difficult to get a handle on exactly how good Owings could become after advancing so quickly. His low-90s fastball is already an asset, but his slider still needs to be refined and his changeup has a ways to go. That his command probably isn't fully big league ready may also be of some concern, so Owings seems more likely to struggle initially than compete for any awards. Still, having earned a starting job and possessing intriguing long-term potential, Owings has an outside chance at surprising.

Scott Thorman ? 1B Braves ? 20:1
The opposite of a Homer Bailey or Tim Lincecum, Thorman makes the list simply because he's locked into a starting job with the Braves. The left-hander has been a solid enough player in the minors before, but his .298/.360/.508 line in 81 games for Triple-A Richmond in 2006 represents the best of Thorman's career to date. Perhaps the 25 year-old will be able to adjust quickly after last year's 128 at-bat trial in the big leagues, but he's more likely to lose at least 50 points off his OPS and be a liability given his position.

The Field (12:1) ? Jason Hirsh (RHP, Rockies), Miguel Montero (C, Diamondbacks), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4768"]Ryan Braun[/URL] (3B, Brewers), Josh Hamilton (OF, Reds), James Loney (1B, Dodgers), Matt Albers (RHP, Astros), Alejandro De Aza (OF, Marlins), Jeff Baker (OF, Rockies), Kory Casto (OF, Nationals), Yovani Gallardo (RHP, Brewers), Andy LaRoche (3B, Dodgers), Alberto Callaspo (MI, Diamondbacks), Paul McAnulty (1B/OF, Padres), Joey Votto (1B, Reds), Yusmeiro Petit (RHP, Diamondbacks), Matt Lindstrom (RHP, Marlins), Joe Bisenius (RHP, Phillies), Dustin Nippert (RHP, Diamondbacks), [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL] (RHP, Marlins), Michael Bourn (OF, Phillies), Philip Humber (RHP, Mets), Jonathan Sanchez (LHP, Giants), Manny Corpas (RHP, Rockies), Doug Slaten (LHP, Diamondbacks), Tony Pena (RHP, Diamondbacks), Henry Owens (RHP, Marlins), Ubaldo Jimenez (RHP, Rockies), Carlos Ruiz (C, Phillies), Jonah Bayliss (RHP, Pirates), Felix Pie (OF, Cubs), Joe Smith (RHP, Mets), Kevin Frandsen (2B, Giants), Shawn Hill (RHP, Nationals), Jonathan Meloan (RHP, Dodgers), Matt Chico (LHP, Nationals).

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Bullpen Report Week 1

Welcome to this year's first installment of the Bullpen Report. In this space each week I'll keep you up to date on the happenings in all 30 major league bullpens. That will include evaluating each closer and rating their security level, but also deciphering who the important setup men are and keeping an eye on who might be next in line for saves. At the end of the column, you should have a good handle on the top of every bullpen in the majors.

For a more in-depth look at every MLB bullpen, updated daily, including who are the best bets to be closers of the near-future, be sure to subscribe to the Rotoworld.com Season Pass. It's quite a bit easier to follow bullpen rankings at the start of the season. Many roles were settled well before spring training, allowing fantasy owners more time to look for potential bargains or roster quality setup men. However, as the season progresses, closers swap in and out, setup men are reevaluated due to injuries and minor league callups, and teams adjust their strategies while deciding to go for it all or look to the future.

However, starting in week one, there are first-mover advantages to being on top of these situations. Even if it doesn't involve a closer losing his job, there are still profit and loss opportunities as well as long-term investments to consider. At the end of the day, the goal is to get the maximum return on all your players, either through performance or trade, and that's what I'm focused on supporting.

All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, or DL.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure)

Key setup men: Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Tony Pena

Valverde saved the Diamondbacks' first game of the season, then blew a one-run lead and took the loss against the Rockies the following day. He wasn't really as poor as the final numbers indicated on Wednesday, and he's in no danger of losing his job. Good health would allow him to be a top 20 closer. Former closer Brandon Lyon is next in line, with youngsters like Brandon Medders and Tony Pena acting as fallback options. None of the group would be an exciting option at this time.

Atlanta Braves

Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure)

Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Oscar Villarreal

Everything went according to plan for the Braves on Opening Day. Their bullpen, a problem in year's past, threw four scoreless innings in a tie game, allowing Wickman to pick up the win after Edgar Renteria homered in the 10th inning. Wickman will continue to hold the job while healthy, but he's already 38 and is just two years removed from performance issues.

It would be interesting to see which new acquisition would replace Wickman should he be removed from the role. Gonzalez has more experience finishing games, but Soriano may be the better pitcher. Both are worth owning in deep mixed or NL-only formats even now, and both could be top 15 closers if given an opportunity.

Baltimore Orioles

Closer: Chris Ray (Secure)

Key setup men: Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker

Ray has yet to pitch as of this writing, but the Orioles' bullpen figures to remain a predictable one throughout the season. Ray has a track record of durability and success, so it'd be a surprise if he weren't the closer from start to finish. Former Devil Rays' closer Danys Baez is next in line, although he'd be nothing more than a mediocre option.

Boston Red Sox

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In)

Key setup men: Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin (DL), Hideki Okajima

Now that the Red Sox have decided to go with Papelbon in the bullpen, don't expect them to change their mind any time soon. The best opportunity to move the youngster to the rotation is in spring training, and with that time having passed, it's highly unlikely the team will revisit the decision.

Should something happen to the right-hander, the club would probably go with Joel Pineiro after considering using him as their closer this winter. If he doesn't adjust well to the bullpen, old standby Mike Timlin or new import Hideki Okajima might be given a chance.

Chicago Cubs

Closer: Ryan Dempster (Secure)

Key setup men: Bob Howry, Kerry Wood (DL), Scott Eyre

Dempster had a strong spring and threw a scoreless inning in his season debut, so he looks like a safer pick now than he did in the second half of last season. Kerry Wood could be back in another few weeks, and he would be the favorite to take over for an injured or struggling Dempster. However, that would require Wood to be both healthy and productive, and veteran owners know better than to expect such a scenario. Bob Howry, a consistently underrated reliever, would be the better and more probable choice.

Chicago White Sox

Closer: Bobby Jenks (Shaky)

Key setup men: Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton, Nick Masset

Despite hitting the mid-90s on the radar gun this spring, manager Ozzie Guillen hinted that Matt Thornton may be the White Sox closer until Jenks starts showing increased velocity. That may surprise some, but when you've got poor command and a straight fastball, 100-MPH heat really is that big of a deal. While I don't buy that there's anything to Guillen's statement, Jenks remains a risky option. Weight, control, and injury issues are still very significant concerns, and he's going to disappoint his owners one of these years.

Should Jenks be pulled from the role, Mike MacDougal remains a better bet to succeed the big right-hander. MacDougal has previous closing experience and better stuff than Thornton, and he was rather successful after coming over from the Royals last summer. MacDougal himself is also an injury risk, so Thornton and promising rookie Nick Masset are also worth monitoring.

Cincinnati Reds

Closer: David Weathers (Shaky), Mike Stanton (Shaky)

Key setup men: Todd Coffey, Jon Coutlangus

The Reds figure to go with the same frustrating closer situation that they employed in 2006, splitting the role between Weathers and Stanton depending on matchups. Right-hander Todd Coffey's strong spring rejuvenates thoughts that he may eventually take over the job, but the club will probably look for extended performance from Coffey before trying him at closer again. Surprisingly, manager Jerry Narron said that rookie Jon Coutlangus would start the ninth inning today if a left-hander were due up. I'll believe that one when I see it, but it does put Coutlangus on the map.

Cleveland Indians

Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure)

Key setup men: Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera

Borowski struggled in the Indians' opener, and then recorded a save on Wednesday. He's a good bet for 30 unspectacular saves, assuming the injuries that have plagued him previously don't act up again. 42 year-old Roberto Hernandez may be next on the depth chart, but the team would have to strongly consider going with a younger option like Rafael Betancourt or potential closer of the future Fernando Cabrera. Both would be better options, with Betancourt more likely to succeed in the short-term.

Colorado Rockies

Closer: Brian Fuentes (Secure)

Key setup men: LaTroy Hawkins, Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez

The Rockies are going to do their best to remain in contention in the NL West this season, but they're likely to be out of the race by the end of July and Fuentes could be trade bait if that happens. While he's likely to continue performing like an average closer, a trade to a contending team that would ask Fuentes to pitch the eighth inning would destroy his value. He's fine to ride for now, but you may want to start fielding offers before July hits. LaTroy Hawkins is the incumbent former closer, but youngsters Manny Corpas and Ramon Ramirez are more long-term options. By mid-season, Corpas or a current minor leaguer would be the favorite to take over for Fuentes.

Detroit Tigers

Closer: Todd Jones (Secure)

Key setup men: Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma

Jones pitched a scoreless inning on Opening Day, then followed it up by recording a save on Wednesday. I was tempted to list him as shaky before he even did anything wrong this season. Between significant injury concerns and a lack of dominance while healthy, it'd be shocking if Jones wasn't replaced as closer at some point this year. At that time, everyone's favorite setup man Zumaya would take over, and instantly be a top 10 closer.

Florida Marlins

Closer: Jorge Julio (Secure)

Key setup men: Taylor Tankersley (DL), Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg

Despite an awful outing that saw him put six men on base and retire just one opposing batter on Wednesday, Julio is rather secure in his job with the Marlins. The team didn't trade for a veteran closer just to shift him aside after a few poor outings, so he has more job security than someone of his talents would normally have. If you're willing to accept below average production from a closer, he's fine to leave active.

Despite currently on the disabled list, Tankersley would be next in line for saves should Julio eventually be removed. He has top 20 closer potential, so the left-hander is worth monitoring closely. Spring darlings Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens would be the team's current options for the role.

Houston Astros

Closer: Brad Lidge (In Danger)

Key setup men: Dan Wheeler, Chad Qualls, Trever Miller

At this point in his career, Lidge is nothing but a ticking time bomb. Fantasy owners and media members alike will have a hard time forgetting his unreal 2004 and 2005 campaigns, but Lidge has now been awful for a full 12 months. He showed nothing impressive at all last season, had an absolutely awful spring, and then proceeded to blow the Astros' first game of the season. There's always the possibility that he'll rebound at some point, but Lidge is only a few poor outings away from losing his job. As a result, he's worth shopping to see if any of your league members remain optimistic.

Dan Wheeler, who blew the Astros' second game of the season by allowing two runs in the eighth inning, is next in line. The right-hander has been a quality option ever since coming over from the Mets in 2004, and he'd be an underrated option should he get a chance to close.

Kansas City Royals

Closer: Octavio Dotel (DL), David Riske (Filling-in)

Key setup men: Joel Peralta, Joakim Soria

A strained oblique muscle sent Dotel to the disabled list on Wednesday. The move was made retroactive to March 30, so he should be back within 10 days if the injury heals as expected. David Riske will fill in while Dotel is out. The former Indian and Red Sox has a reputation for performing poorly in pressure situations, but he's generally been a quality reliever during his career and deserves another chance. Dotel's injury isn't of any long-term concern, so the DL stint shouldn't affect his value much upon returning.

Los Angeles Angels

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In)

Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver

K-Rod pitched a scoreless ninth inning against the Rangers on Opening Day to record a save, then picked up a second save despite allowing an earned run on Wednesday. There's currently some pretty incriminating pictures and video clips of K-Rod floating around the internet that show the right-hander with a substance under his hat and repeatedly rubbing the baseball. It's probably nothing to be worried about, so if the Rodriguez owner in your league reads too much into them, make a move.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Closer: Takashi Saito (Secure)

Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Rudy Seanez

Despite 107 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings for the Dodgers last season, Saito didn't receive the attention normally reserved for rookies who dominate that often. And while the right-hander is plenty talented and could fall off a good deal and still remain an above average closer, Saito is likely to disappoint those expecting a repeat. He's already 37 years old, and figures to have difficulty as the National League continues adjusting to his top-notch slider and mediocre fastball.

Broxton is behind only Joel Zumaya in terms of exciting potential among setup men, and since he's the better bet to stay healthy, he's also probably the better investment. Broxton could be a top 5 closer while pitching half his games at Dodger Stadium, and Saito owners should go through the trouble of rostering Broxton all year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Closer: Francisco Cordero (Secure)

Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva

Cordero recorded saves on both Tuesday and Wednesday, striking out four and not allowing a base runner in the process. His strong finish with the Brewers last season should afford him a few poor outings this year, so he's got a strong hold on the job for now. Extended struggles would put former closer Turnbow back in the mix after the young right-hander had an impressive spring.

Minnesota Twins

Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In)

Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek

It's already business as usual for Nathan, who recorded saves in both of the Twins' first two games of the season. There's little reason to expect the Twins to need another closer this season, but they're well stocked with three excellent setup men in Rincon, Crain, and Neshek. All three would be legitimates candidates for next in line on most teams, but Rincon would likely get the nod given his seniority.

New York Mets

Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In)

Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Ambiorix Burgos

Wagner threw a scoreless inning against the Cardinals on Sunday night, then followed it up with his first save of the season and 325th of his career on Tuesday. In case of emergency, Heilman will be the substitute to finish games. If pitching coach Rick Peterson can help Burgos harness his impressive arsenal, perhaps he'll be next in line by mid-season.

New York Yankees

Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In)

Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino

Fun with statistics: Rivera's average season, through age 36, is 5-3, 32 saves, 61 strikeouts, and a 2.28 ERA in 68 innings of work. This includes Rivera's first season in which he was a part-time starter and posted a 5.51 ERA, and also includes another season when Rivera acted as a setup man. Rumor has it he's almost earned manager Joe Torre's trust as well.

Oakland Athletics

Closer: Huston Street (Locked In)

Key setup men: Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree

Street has yet to appear in a game for the Athletics, but he remains one of the best values among the elite closers. Many fantasy owners were disappointed with Street in 2006 after he posted a rather pedestrian 3.31 ERA and also missed time with a groin injury. However, the young right-hander still recorded 37 saves and posted better peripherals than he did during his dominant 2005 campaign. Expect another big season.

Should Street go down, Duchscherer would be the choice to fill in. When not battling various injuries, Duchscherer is one of the game's top setup men, and there's no reason to think he'd have trouble converting to a closing role.

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer: Tom Gordon (Locked In)

Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Antonio Alfonseca

The 39 year-old Gordon threw a scoreless inning on Opening Day, then blew a two-run lead against the Braves on Wednesday. His command was fine and his stuff was strong as ever, so there was nothing to worry about in the outing. And while Gordon is far from without risk this season, he's still locked in to his closing role due to a lack of quality options in the rest of the Phillies' bullpen.

The club hopes that Madson will step up to ninth inning duties in time, but he's converting back from acting mostly as a starter last season and still needs to find his 2004 form. The rest of the bullpen is filled with mediocrity or worse, so Philadelphia's playoff chances have a lot to do with Gordon's health and Madson's productivity.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Closer: Salomon Torres (Secure)

Key setup men: Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss,

The early major league saves leader, Torres has recorded a save in all three of the Pirates' games thus far. The right-hander threw a pair of scoreless innings in his first two appearances, and then allowed one run in a two-run game on Wednesday. Torres has been a fine reliever for three years running and should do a solid job while acting as the Pirates' closer. Matt Capps or youngster Jonah Bayliss would step in to the closer's role if needed later in the season.

San Diego Padres

Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In)

Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell

As of this writing, Hoffman has yet to appear in a game this season. Although he turns 40 in October, Hoffman is as good a bet as most relievers to succeed given his intelligence, command, and reliance on a changeup. Every save he records this season will further pad his all-time saves lead, so there's no shortage of reasons for him to stay motivated. As has been the case for the last few years, Scott Linebrink serves as Hoffman's caddy.

San Francisco Giants

Closer: Armando Benitez (Secure)

Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Jonathan Sanchez

It looked like Benitez might have to battle promising youngster Brian Wilson for closing duties this spring, but Wilson struggled and Benitez posted an ERA under 1.00. With Wilson demoted to the minors and no other options to close on the big league roster, Benitez has a job locked up until he's either traded or injured. Correia would be the current favorite to take over, but one of the club's younger arms would likely take over later in the year.

Seattle Mariners

Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In)

Key setup men: Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, Brandon Morrow

A strained elbow put Putz's status for Opening Day in doubt, but the right-hander was ready in time and pitched a scoreless ninth inning in a four-run game against the Athletics. Repeating last year's 104/13 K/BB ratio is going to be rather tough and it's always worrisome when elbow injuries strike during spring training, but Putz has the ability to perform like an elite closer. In the short-term, Reitsma would get anointed closer should Putz's elbow issues resurface.

St. Louis Cardinals

Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In)

Key setup men: Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer

With Adam Wainwright now in the rotation, the Cardinals are forced to rely on Isringhausen to be both healthy and productive this season. That means he'll get a longer leash than normal when he's struggling, and he may also be asked to pitch through nagging injuries that otherwise would have sidelined the right-hander. Fortunately for the Cardinals, Isringhausen got off to a good start by throwing a scoreless inning against the Mets on Wednesday.

If off-season hip surgery proves to be an issue, the club might consider moving Wainwright back to the bullpen. However, since the club is also short in starting pitching, Wainwright's success while starting games would likely thwart those plans. If that were the case, Brad Thompson would take over.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Closer: Al Reyes (Shaky)

Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Ruddy Lugo, Juan Salas

As has been the case ever since Danys Baez departed, the Devil Rays' bullpen figures to be a mess again this year. Reyes starts the year at closer, something nobody was predicting even a month ago. The 37 year-old right-hander is a quality pitcher and can probably hold down the job, but he missed all of 2006 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and has an inconsistent past. Youngsters like Stokes, Lugo, and Salas and minor leaguers Seth McClung and Chad Orvella could all figure into the mix at some point, but it's anyone's guess as to who will be favored. It's best to stay away.

Texas Rangers

Closer: Eric Gagne (DL), Akinori Otsuka (Filling-in)

Key setup men: Joaquin Benoit, C.J. Wilson

Gagne was placed on the DL on Wednesday as he still tries to recover from back and elbow surgeries. He's expected back as early as April 13, but a setback would be far from surprising. Since he's not going to be able to dial his fastball up as high as he used to and he's also still an injury risk, Gagne seems like an especially poor investment this season. There's no point selling him at a low point if you already own him, but a few weeks of decent stats and he's worth floating around your league. Otstuka should do a fine job filling in, although he's likely to regress from last year's numbers.

Toronto Blue Jays

Closer: B.J. Ryan (Locked In)

Key setup men: Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo, Shaun Marcum

Nothing surprising here, as Ryan recorded his first save by throwing a scoreless ninth against the Tigers on Opening Day. He'll remain an elite closer. Jason Frasor has stepped up as the eighth inning man, recording a win on Monday and pitching out of a tough jam in a one-run game on Wednesday. He has closing experience, so he's the club's second option.

Washington Nationals

Closer: Chad Cordero (Locked In)

Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Ryan Wagner, Jesus Colome

During the odd occurrence when the Nationals actually have a lead in the ninth inning, Cordero will serve as a fine closer capable of good ratios and a solid strikeout rate. Unfortunately for his owners, he could save half his club's wins and still not make it to 30 saves this year. A mid-season trade remains a possibility, but since he'll require a hefty price in a trade, he's likely to end up a closer somewhere else if moved. Rauch is the clear favorite to take over should that occur.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Waiting for Daisuke
If you thought your Wednesday went poorly, consider the plight of J.D. Durbin. A former top prospect who nicknamed himself "The Real Deal" before injuries caused his stock to plummet, Durbin entered spring training with zero minor-league options and all but forced the Twins to let him go with some brutal outings. The Diamondbacks snatched him up off waivers and stuck him on the 25-man roster, with Durbin's debut coming against the Rockies. It wasn't pretty.

He gave up seven runs on seven hits while recording two outs, leaving with a 94.50 ERA and 12.00 WHIP. Figuring there's no way a team would claim him after that mess, the Diamondbacks designated Durbin for assignment following the game, choosing to keep Dustin Nippert instead. In an odd way, Durbin's horrendous debut was probably for the best. Arizona was already losing when he entered the game and, by imploding, Durbin should be able to pass through waivers and get his career back on track at Triple-A.

While Durbin thinks about exactly how long it'll take to get his career ERA into the realm of respectability should he actually make it back to the majors at some point, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* One of the most highly anticipated pitching debuts in recent memory takes place this afternoon, when Daisuke Matsuzaka takes the mound against the Royals. Everything about Matsuzaka is analyzed to ridiculous lengths by both the American and Japanese media at this point, so when it became clear that the game in Kansas City would be played in cold weather someone went back and researched how often Matsuzaka had played in similar temperatures before.

Turns out he pitched in 40 degrees as recently as last season, which multiple media outlets in Boston treated as a revelation Thursday. Between the temperature and the Royals' lineup it's an ideal first start for Matsuzaka. His second start will come at home against the Mariners, which in addition to the drama of Matsuzaka facing Ichiro Suzuki will provide another good matchup for him. In other words, he's set up about as well as possible for immediate success.

* When the Devil Rays demoted him to Triple-A last week, Jorge Cantu demanded a trade and informed everyone that he wouldn't be reporting to Durham, saying: "I'm going to keep it real simple, I'm not a minor-league player." Given some time to cool off?and perhaps realize that with a .699 OPS last season he wasn't exactly a major-league player either?Cantu accepted his assignment and will report to Triple-A for the International League opener Thursday.

His trade request remains, however, with Cantu's agent saying Tuesday that it "was firm." Cantu getting off to a strong start at Durham is the best-case scenario for both parties, because his trade value is at an all-time low right now and he'll need to put up big numbers at the plate to offset manager Joe Maddon taking a liking to B.J. Upton at second base. Even with a hot start, Cantu's struggles defensively may mean that Upton has passed him by for good.

The last time Cantu was at Durham?as a 22-year-old in 2004?he hit .302 with 22 homers and 80 RBIs in 95 games, earning a call up to Tampa Bay, where he batted .301 in 50 games. Since then has a 117-RBI season on his big-league resume, but also declined defensively while posting brutal numbers in 2006. An interesting side note to all the drama is that if Cantu stays at Triple-A for a while, it'll push the start of his arbitration eligibility back from next season to 2009.

* With Cristian Guzman on the disabled list, manager Manny Acta talked Felipe Lopez into moving back to shortstop after Lopez initially said he wanted to remain at second base. Lopez slid over to replace Guzman Wednesday, with Ronnie Belliard going 3-for-4 with two doubles as the starter at second base. The Lopez-Belliard double-play combo might be tough to watch, but Guzman at the plate wasn't exactly easy on the eyes and at least Belliard is a solid pickup in NL-only leagues.

* Rich Harden showed Wednesday why so many fantasy owners take the plunge by drafting him each year, ignoring the lengthy injury history and praying that he can finally stay healthy. Harden tossed seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball against the Mariners, striking out seven while looking as dominant as ever. Another oft-injured young starter, Cole Hamels, also looked great Wednesday, shutting out the Braves for seven innings while racking up eight strikeouts.

AL Quick Hits: The Royals placed Octavio Dotel (oblique) on the disabled list retroactive to March 30, meaning David Riske should get at least a couple save chances ? Jon Lester will make the first of four scheduled starts at Single-A Thursday, with the Red Sox hoping to get him up to around 85 pitches by the end of the month ? Shea Hillenbrand was pessimistic about a quick return when asked Wednesday about his groin injury ? Ramon Hernandez (oblique) appears headed to the disabled list ? Jaret Wright was a mess against the Twins Wednesday, walking five batters and giving up six runs before being yanked after 2.1 innings ? In either a horrible sign for Scott Podsednik's legs or a great sign for Victor Martinez's arm, Martinez gunned down Podsednik trying to steal a base Wednesday ? After homering on Opening Day, Darin Erstad went 2-for-2 with three walks and two stolen bases Wednesday ? Mike Lowell's three errors Wednesday are half as many as he committed all of last season.

NL Quick Hits: Not only did Barry Bonds hit homer No. 735 Wednesday, he made a good defensive play in left field and remained in the game after tweaking his hamstring ? Braden Looper lost his first career start after 572 relief appearances, but looked pretty solid while giving up three runs over six innings ? As discussed in this space Wednesday, the Braves placed Lance Cormier (shoulder) on the disabled list and called up Kyle Davies to replace him in the rotation ? Zach Duke's first start has been pushed back from Saturday to Sunday because of a cracked fingernail ? Jorge Julio blew his first save chance with the Marlins, coughing up a two-run lead against the Nationals by giving up three runs on five hits and a walk ? Jeff Baker is 3-for-3 as a pinch-hitter, but has yet to make his first start because the Rockies chose not to platoon him with Brad Hawpe against left-hander Doug Davis ? It wasn't quite as bad as Durbin's outing, but Rule 5 pick Jared Burton walked three of the four hitters he faced in Wednesday's major-league debut.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Matsuzaka, Greinke Shine
Daisuke Matsuzaka lived up to the massive hype in his major-league debut Thursday, holding the Royals to one run over seven innings while racking up 10 strikeouts. David DeJesus led off the game with a line-drive single to center field and later smacked a solo homer, but the rest of the Royals' lineup managed just four hits against Matsuzaka, who worked with a low-90s fastball and wide variety of impressive off-speed stuff on a cold afternoon in Kansas City.

As Mike Lowell said afterward, "That's why we outbid everybody." According to the Boston Herald, Matsuzaka became the first Red Sox pitcher to win his debut since Juan Pena in 1999. Meanwhile, the Boston Globe reports that the last rookie from any team to reach double-digit strikeouts in his debut was Aaron Harang in 2002. The only downside to Matsuzaka's first outing? As opposing starter Zack Greinke put it, "He works so slow it's kind of boring."

Of course, for $103 million and with a great track record in Japan, Matsuzaka was supposed to be good, especially against a mediocre lineup. On the other hand, Greinke was making his first big-league start since 2005 after sitting out the bulk of last season due to personal problems. All things considered, he might have been even more impressive than Matsuzaka, wriggling out of several jams on the way to holding the powerful Red Sox lineup to two runs over seven innings.

Greinke recorded seven strikeouts, including getting David Ortiz three times, and walked just one hitter. He gave up eight hits, but the Royals' defense hurt him on no fewer than four different plays and one of Greinke's runs was unearned. Matsuzaka's first start makes me a little more confident about my prediction that he'll be one of the top five fantasy starters in the AL, while Greinke's first start has me believing that he may still become a special pitcher after all.

While Red Sox fans bask in the day-after glow of what Rotoworld football editor Gregg Rosenthal called "National Matsuzaka Day," here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Johnny Damon was initially diagnosed with cramping in both calves after leaving Monday's game in the fifth inning, but may actually be headed to the disabled list if what is now being called a strained right calf doesn't improve over the weekend. Damon reportedly underwent an MRI while sitting out Thursday's game, with Melky Cabrera starting in center field and Robinson Cano taking over as the Yankees' leadoff man.

A trip to the DL would be the first of Damon's dozen-year career and may keep him from playing at least 145 games in a full season for the first time, which is remarkable for someone who's had his share of nicks and bruises over the years. Regardless of Damon's status, general manager Brian Cashman said Wednesday that the Yankees have no plans to bring Bernie Williams back into the fold.

With Damon out, Cano's fantasy stock would receive a nice boost by moving from near the bottom of the lineup to the top, although manager Joe Torre could (and probably will) end up tinkering with the batting order. As the Yankees' only legitimate everyday center-field option sans Damon, Cabrera would get the biggest boost, making him a worthwhile short-term pickup in almost all formats.

* Given Al Reyes' track record and the Devil Rays' lack of other options, it was inevitable that he'd be given a chance to close if healthy. Manager Joe Maddon said that Reyes would have gotten the call if Tampa Bay had a lead on Opening Day and then brought him in with a 7-6 lead against the New York Thursday. Reyes pitched a perfect ninth inning to nail down the save and should be the closer as long as his elbow holds up, although Maddon has avoided officially handing him the job.

* The A's received some good news on Dan Johnson, who reportedly will be able to avoid hip surgery that would have kept him out for about half the season. Johnson will instead rehab the injury and hopes to return within a month. He was looking at everyday at-bats prior to the injury, but Johnson may not have a job waiting for him if Shannon Stewart and Travis Buck play well in the meantime. Mark Kotsay's possible early June return from back surgery will also be a factor.

AL Quick Hits: Bartolo Colon (shoulder) struck out five batters in four scoreless innings during a minor-league rehab start at Single-A Thursday, reportedly showing off impressive velocity in the process ? Mark Buehrle gave the White Sox a scare when he left Thursday's start after being hit on the forearm by a batted ball, but he's not expected to miss a start ? After hitting .115 during spring training, Grady Sizemore has homered in all three games, with two of them coming against lefties ? Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) threw 40 pitches from a mound Thursday and reported no problems ? Making the first of four scheduled starts at Single-A, Jon Lester tossed four scoreless innings Thursday ? Because of their hamstring problems and the cold weather in New York, Rocco Baldelli and Dioner Navarro were held out of the lineup Thursday ? Alex Gordon picked up his first big-league hit with a broken-bat single against Matsuzaka, but also committed his first error.

NL Quick Hits: The swelling in Chris Carpenter's elbow has gone down enough that he's preparing to make his scheduled start Tuesday ? General manager Josh Byrnes said Thursday that Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is about two weeks from returning ? Mike Hampton (oblique) is expected to throw a bullpen session over the weekend and could be cleared to begin a minor-league rehab assignment if it goes well ? Freddy Sanchez (knee) started at second base and went 1-for-2 with two walks in a minor-league rehab appearance at Double-A Thursday, with a possible return to the Pirates looming this weekend ? Micah Owings replaces J.D. Durbin on the Diamondbacks' roster and will start Friday against the Nationals ? Manager Jerry Narron hasn't named an official closer, but David Weathers got ninth-inning duties with a three-run lead Thursday and tossed a 1-2-3 inning ? After starting 6-for-16 (.375) with a homer and four RBIs, Dmitri Young might be the early leader for Comeback Player of the Year.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Two-year plan could pay off
The e-mail arrived less than a week before draft day ? at a time when most fantasy owners are examining every possible way to win their leagues. But this plea for draft advice was different. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks

Dan Turkewitz of New York City wasn't looking to win at all in 2007. He was unhappy with his keeper list, and rather than dig himself even deeper into the Ronald Nimkoff Memorial League basement, he was considering a distinctly major league approach to fixing his team: a two-year rebuilding plan.

He wanted to know which players to target this year for their potential value in 2008. Hmmm. Catastrophic injuries to key players have ruined fantasy seasons in early April before. Is it really a stretch to start looking forward to next year just a few weeks earlier? www.eogcontests.com

It's an extremely risky strategy but an intriguing one. Plus, the kind of players we're looking for could potentially begin to pay dividends before this season is over.

On the comeback trailFirst, there are players who are injured or working their way back from injuries. At the top of this list is last season's odds-on favorite for American League rookie of the year (and possibly AL Cy Young) until his elbow gave out. Francisco Liriano was so dominant (12-3, 2.16 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 121 innings), he is worth stashing for an entire season, even though there's no guarantee he'll be the same after Tommy John surgery than he was before it. www.fantasysportspicks.com

Los Angeles Angels outfielder Juan Rivera, who broke his leg playing winter ball and is out until midseason, also fits. Before the injury, Rivera was tabbed as a $15-$20 player, but he probably fell through the cracks in all but the deepest leagues. When he does return, he'll provide a nice power boost.

In the National League, Josh Johnson of Florida comes to mind first. As a rookie, he was among the league leaders in ERA before a forearm strain late in the year made him considerably less effective and ultimately kept him five innings short of reaching the minimum to qualify. He'll miss the first two months. www.sportspickwinners.com

On the cusp

Prospects who don't make the majors out of spring training are often in better position to succeed than those who end up being the 25th man on the big club's roster. www.therx.ws

That's one reason the Toronto Blue Jays chose to send power prospect Adam Lind to the minors to start the year. He had a 1.093 OPS in Class AAA last season before being called up in September, but there's just no room in Toronto's starting outfield. If Alex Rios, Reed Johnson or DH Frank Thomas gets hurt, Lind will be a .300-hitting regular. www.therx.info

The Minnesota Twins' Alexi Casilla is a switch-hitting speedster who can play either middle-infield position but is stuck behind Luis Castillo and Jason Bartlett. His stolen-base ability (a total of 50 last year in Class A and AA) will make him the favorite to take over when Castillo's contract expires at the end of this year.
www.greenbaypackers.ws
Matt Garza essentially replaced Liriano in the rotation in 2006, and too much was expected. He struggled (a 3-6 record and an ERA above 5.00), but he's one of the Twins' three best starters even though he'll start 2007 in the minors.

The demotion only lowers expectations to a more reasonable level and creates a more enticing opportunity to buy low.

In the NL, both Lastings Milledge of the New York Mets and James Loney of the Los Angeles Dodgers provided glimpses of their potential during brief stints in the majors last year. (Milledge even made the opening-day roster this year.) But neither one is going to supplant an established veteran ?Shawn Green in New York and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3797"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4378"]Luis Gonzalez[/URL][/URL] in Los Angeles ? at least right now. But that day is coming soon.

Also worth watching: Hunter Pence, Houston Astros; [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4768"]Ryan Braun[/URL], Milwaukee Brewers; Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay Devil Rays; Kory Casto, Washington Nationals.

Bigger, better things

For those players already in the majors, the most obvious growth area is with relievers who could eventually become closers.

Joel Zumaya fits the profile perfectly. The Detroit Tigers have Todd Jones signed through this season, so Zumaya isn't likely to pick up a whole lot of saves. However, he'll pick up a handful of eighth-inning wins, and his 100-mph fastball will make batters miss. Next season, he should take over the closer's job.

Zumaya's mirror image in the NL is the Dodgers' Jonathan Broxton. His strikeout rate (11.4/nine innings last season) was among the best in the majors, and with Takashi Saito, 37, as the incumbent closer, it should be Broxton's turn very soon.

The Cleveland Indians have always seemed to have a fertile farm system. Andy Marte could go undrafted in many leagues because of the wealth of talent there, but he's only 23 and he has a powerful bat.

Also worth watching: Rich Hill, Chicago Cubs; Jason Hirsh, Colorado Rockies; Kyle Farnsworth, New York Yankees; Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks; Elijah Dukes, Devil Rays; Brandon Morrow, Seattle Mariners.

Will it pay off?

Brilliant idea? Or an act of desperation? Most likely it's somewhere in the middle. Unfortunately it's probably going to take a full year ? or more ? before we really know if our little experiment worked.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Week That Was
Ok, week two of the baseball season and we are still playing in snow. Does this mean that strange things will happen all year? Who knows. For now, lets just take things week by week with a look back at the Week That Was.

Kaz Matsui: Kaz Matsui is off to a fast start, including his three hits and two swipes last night. I admit I am biased here, but I would start trying to move him now. Tell the folks in your league that quality MI's are hard to find, that Coors is a hitters' haven and try and hold someone up. It is possible that players could be taught to hit curveballs, take more pitches, how to read pitchers pickoff moves, etc., however, character cannot be taught. This is still the guy who refused to sign with the Mets unless they promised to move Jose Reyes from SS. The quintessential "me" player in a team sport can be on someone else's team.

Al Reyes: Al Reyes earned the save Thursday in TB's win over the Yankees. While hardly a secret, Reyes could still be a bargain. He has a solid track record (2005 with the Cards, he had more than a K per inning and a WHIP under 1.00), is over his latest injury and most importantly when it comes to saves, will get the opportunities for a while. Ride him until he falters.

Dmitri Young: As of Thursday, Delmon's older brother looked great at bat (6-16) and awful with the leather. So, unless your league counts fielding (mine do not), Young is a worthy NL player. However, you need to temper your expectations as the Nats are just not good. He will have fewer run and rbi chances on the Nats than he would on any other team. Add in the fact that he plays in a pitcher's park and you have a good hitter who will put up decent numbers, but not one you should break the bank for.

Zack Greinke: Zack Greinke looked sharp in his first start of 2007, holding the BoSox to two runs over seven innings. I have no idea what off the field issues he really had. However, Greinke is a solid talent who has looked strong this spring. Remember, this is the guy who was often compared to Greg Maddux and who posted a 4:1 K/BB with a Whip of 1.17 and an ERA under 4 in the 2004 campaign. Despite playing for a weak KC team, this is a very good place to take a flyer. The upside is quite high.

David Weathers: Speaking of opportunity for saves, David Weathers earned the save Thursday in the Reds win over the Cubs. It is still a bit of a mystery to me how Dustin Hermanson went from forgotten to closer and back again in two weeks of spring training. That said, Weather has been very consistent ? he will close for half the year, get replaced, find his stuff and post decent ratios with at least a dozen saves. As a number two guy in a deep NL league, that is value. Just do not overbid.

Rich Harden: Rich Harden allowed only three hits in seven innings strong shutout innings in his first start of 2007. Well, fantasy baseball is a funny thing. Because Harden cost me a LABR season last year, I am biased. However, trying my best to put that aside, here is my advice ? talk him up (his great stuff, 98 MPH on the gun, good park, etc.), let him accumulate stats for about 5-6 weeks and then deal him. The risk is just too great.

Ted Lilly: Ted Lilly looked sharp in his first Cubby start, striking out nine in seven innings. I have to say that this is a tough one. First, Lilly has always had great stuff. Second, he has never really put it together for a full season. Third, lefties who go to the NL tend to have success in their first year (remember the great seasons John Tudor and Bobby Ojeda put up out of nowhere?). Fourth, Wrigley is not ideal for flyball pitchers. In the end, I would advise the same course as with Harden ? hold for 5-6 weeks, talk about the 1985 version of John Tudor and sell high.

Octavio Dotel: Royals placed RHP Octavio Dotel on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to March 30. Fortunately, the injury has nothing to do with his arm. There is nothing you can do but await his return. He looked strong all spring and pitchers in their second year post surgery tend to perform well. David Riske is not a great bet, but when you have an injury prone closer, you should also own his backup.

Wily Taveras: For some reason that I cannot fathom, the Rockies started 42 year old Steve Finley over Willy Taveras against a lefty. If you own Taveras do not worry, he will steal a ton of bases and score many runs. However, if you can evoke some Finley-induced fear in the Taveras owner in your league, that would be good. The Finley folly will end soon, thereby closing your window of opportunity.

Jorge Julio: Jorge Julio blew his first save and it only took until Wednesday. Yes, he currently has opportunity, but he has never shown the skills to succeed long term as a closer. Given that the Marlins have so many options and good young arms, the Julio era will be short-lived. Dump him after his first string of a couple of saves. Four straight years of ERAs over 4 and WHIPs over 4.30 from a reliever is not what anyone needs.

Last but not least, this week's Schultz Says: "In The Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy, Douglas Adams figured that the instruction manual to the universe would be emblazoned with a simple message - "Don't Panic!" Although he didn't know it, Adams came up with the best advice ever imaginable for the first week of the rotisserie baseball season. This week marks the first of 25 and not getting out to a great start doesn't mean anything - the season is a marathon, not a sprint. Albert Pujols is hitting .100 without a home run, RBI or run scored; meanwhile Mark Ellis has 8 RBIs - think these patterns are going to hold all season?

If you want to read anything into the opening first few games, one interesting development is Elijah Dukes' quick start. As he's been progressing through the Devil Rays system with Delmon Young and B.J. Upton, the only time Dukes seemed to get mentioned is when he would have a run in with the law. If Dukes has his non-baseball related activities under control, there's no reason why he can't play his way into the Tampa Bay lineup and have a very productive year. If he's available on your waiver wire, you could do worse.

Johnny Damon's calf is another development worth keeping an eye on. Injuries cleared the way for 21 year old Melky Cabrera last year and his one shot to get playing time this year will be for some mishap to befall Damon, Matsui or Bobby Abreu. It may have happened on Opening Day. Keep an eye on Damon's status, his value right now will be inversely proportional to Melky's. Picking up anyone on the waiver wire who will be hitting in the Yankees lineup is a nice bonus.

Victor Martinez tweaked his leg running out a grounder Friday afternoon. If you own V Mart, start praying that it's nothing serious, he's easily the most valuable fantasy catcher out there. If he's going to miss some time, Kelly Shoppach's value increases. Even if he won't be an elite or even above-average fantasy catcher, the Tribe are high on him and will give him all the time Martinez could miss. Like Melky Cabrera, Shoppach will benefit from hitting in the potent Indians lineup and if Martinez can't play, won't hurt you while he's in your lineup. However, if like me, you've put a modest investment into Martinez, it's wait and pray time. Keep your eyes on this situation.

As a last though, anyone with a decent memory probably recalls I broke out the Douglas Adams last year and probably the year before that. While you may think Schultz has gotten lazy, it's simply a proper homage to Adams who loved a good repetitive joke. At least that's the story I'm going with this year."

Response: The baseball analysis is typically solid, the Douglas Adams stuff ? not worth any keyboard strokes on my part.

Have a great week and get that football gear on if you heading to the ballpark ? in many places there is baseball on the field, but a football feel in the cold air.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Patience is a Virtue
A week or two into the season, the standings and leaderboards are always a bit wacky. We all know that Akinori Iwamura isn't going to maintain that .615 average, Jimmy Rollins won't be leading the National League in homers when it's all said and done, and Mark Ellis won't finish in the top-three in RBI either. The baseball season is a long marathon so don't read too much into the numbers right now ? just ask Chris Shelton about that. He smacked nine home runs in his first 13 games last season? then, just hit seven in his next 102 contests before spending August in the minor leagues. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks

The point is don't worry about that David Ortiz and Ryan Howard each are lugging .158 batting averages, Michael Young's 3-for-23 start, Jose Contreras' 63.00 ERA or the Cardinals 1-4 start. Baseball has a funny way of evening out. In this edition of The Week Ahead, we'll break down your two-start hurlers for the week, the latest on the injury report and some key stats to help you set your lineup for week two. eog.com

Two-start pitchers:
Great options:
Rich Harden vs CWS (J. Contreras) vs NYY (C. Pavano)
Josh Beckett vs SEA (M. Batista) vs LAA (E. Santana)
Tim Hudson vs WAS (M. Chico) vs FLA (A. Sanchez)
Jeremy Sowers vs LAA (E. Santana) vs CWS (J. Contreras)
Jeff Francis at LAD (J. Schmidt) at ARZ (D. Davis)
Jason Schmidt vs COL (J. Francis) vs SD (C. Young)
A.J. Burnett vs KC (O. Perez) vs DET (C. Durbin)
Jose Contreras at OAK (R. Harden) at CLE (J. Sowers)
Bronson Arroyo at ARI (D. Davis) at CHC (T. Lilly)
Matt Cain at SD (C. Young) at PIT (Z. Duke)
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] vs SF (M. Cain) at LAD (J. Schmidt)
Anibal Sanchez vs MLW (J. Suppan) at ATL (T. Hudson)
Ervin Santana at CLE (J. Sowers) at BOS (J. Beckett)
Bronson Arroyo at ARZ (D. Davis) at CHC (W. Miller)
Doug Davis vs CIN (B. Arroyo) vs COL (J. Francis)

More strong options:
Zack Greinke at TOR (J. Towers) at BAL (J. Wright)
Matt Morris at SD (C. Hensley) at PIT (I. Snell)
Cole Hamels at NYM (J. Maine) vs HOU (J. Jennings)
John Maine vs PHI (C. Hamels) vs WAS (S. Hill)
Braden Looper at PIT (I. Snell) vs MLW (J. Suppan)
Ian Snell vs STL (B. Looper) vs SF (M. Morris)
Woody Williams at CHC (T. Lilly) at PHI (J. Lieber)
Ted Lilly vs HOU (W. Williams) vs CIN (B. Arroyo)
Daniel Cabrera vs DET (C. Durbin) vs KC (O. Perez)
Jeff Suppan at FLA (A. Sanchez) at STL (B. Looper)
Jake Westbrook vs SEA (J. Washburn) vs CWS (J. Danks)
Odalis Perez at TOR (A. Burnett) at BAL (D. Cabrera)
Carl Pavano at MIN (S. Ponson) at OAK (R. Harden)
Jarrod Washburn at CLE (J. Westbrook) vs TEX (V. Padilla)
Nate Robertson at BAL (J. Wright) at TOR (J. Towers)

Other two-starters:
Jae Seo at TEX (J. Wright) at MIN (B. Bonser)
Boof Bonser vs NYY (A. Pettitte) vs TB (J. Seo)
Josh Towers vs KC (Z. Greinke) vs DET (N. Robertson)
Matt Chico at ATL (T. Hudson) at NYM (M. Pelfrey)
Chad Durbin at BAL (D. Cabrera) at TOR (A. Burnett)
Sidney Ponson vs NYY (C. Pavano) vs TB (E. Jackson)
Miguel Batista at BOS (J. Beckett) vs TEX (B. McCarthy)
Edwin Jackson at TEX (B. McCarthy) at MIN (S. Ponson)
Brandon McCarthy vs TB (E. Jackson) at SEA (M. Batista)
Jaret Wright vs DET (N. Robertson) vs KC (Z. Greinke)
Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football? - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice
Team-by-team Game Totals:
Seven-game schedule: BAL, CLE, DET, HOU, KC, MIN, TB, TOR, SEA
Six-game schedule: ARI, ATL, BOS, CHC, CHW, CIN, COL, FLA, LAA, LAD, MIL, NYM, NYY, OAK, PHI, PIT, SD, SF, STL, TEX, WAS
Five-game schedule: none

Rain threatened games:
Monday, April 9: HOU @ CHC (40%)
Wednesday, April 11: STL @ PIT (40%), DET @ BAL (40%), LAA @ CLE (40%), PHI @ NYM (40%), WAS @ ATL (40%)
Thursday, April 12: LAA @ CLE (40%), KC @ BAL (40%), PHI @ NYM (40%), WAS @ ATL (40%)
Friday, April 13: CHW @ CLE (40%), LAA @ BOS (40%), SF @ PIT (40%)
Saturday, April 14: TEX @ SEA (40%)
Sunday, April 15: TEX @ SEA (40%), CIN @ CHC (40%)

Stadium Factor:
ESPN.com - MLB - Park Factor
Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road.
A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher.
Stats based on 2006 final stats still

Top Hitter's Park Schedules:
4. Chase Field (Diamondbacks) 1.141 runs ? 3 vs CIN, 3 vs COL
5. Rangers Ballpark (Rangers) 1.081 runs ? 3 vs TB
6. Wrigley Field (Cubs) 1.075 runs ? 3 vs HOU, 3 vs CIN
7. Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) 1.067 runs ? 3 vs TB, 4 vs DET
8. Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) 1.063 runs ? 3 vs HOU

No Games: 1. Great American Ballpark (Reds) 1.153 runs, 2. Coors Field (Rockies) 1.149 runs, 3. Kauffman Field (Royals) 1.147 runs

Top Pitcher's Park Schedules:
1. Petco Park (Padres) 0.860 runs ? 3 vs SF
2. Safeco Field (Mariners) 0.881 runs ? 3 vs TEX
3. Dolphin Stadium (Marlins) 0.898 runs ? 3 vs MIL
5. Shea Stadium (Mets) 0.902 runs ? 3 vs PHI, 3 vs WAS
7. McAfee Coliseum (Athletics) 0.921 runs ? 3 vs CHW, 3 vs NYY

No Games: 4. Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 0.900 runs, 6. Angel Stadium (Angels) 0.906 runs

Caught Stealing %:
Stats still based on 2006 stats
Toughest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%)
1. Ivan Rodriguez, DET 25-for-51 (51.0%) ? 3 @ BAL, 4 @ TOR
2. Yadier Molina, STL 37-for-66 (43.9%) ? 3 @ PIT, 3 vs MIL
3. Ramon Hernandez, BAL 55-for-97 (43.3%) ? 3 vs DET, 4 vs KC
4. Miguel Olivo, FLA 48-for-78 (38.5%) ? 3 vs MIL, 3 @ ATL
5. Joe Mauer, MIN 36-for-58 (37.9%) ? 3 vs NYY, 4 vs TB
Sports Picks
Facing these elite catchers is bad news for the following players in the stolen base category: Corey Patterson, Brian Roberts, Rickie Weeks, Derek Jeter, Johnny Damon, Carl Crawford, Kenny Lofton, Ben Zobrist, Reed Johnson, Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells

Easiest to steal against (SB/SBA, CS%)
1. Victor Martinez, CLE 100-for-122 (18.0%) ? 1 vs SEA, 3 vs LAA, 3 vs CHW
2. A.J. Pierzynski, CHW 90-for-115 (21.7%) ? 3 @ OAK, 3 @ CLE
3. Brad Ausmus, HOU 60-for-77 (22.1%) ? 3 @ CHC, 3 @ PIT
4. Brian McCann, ATL 70-for-91 (23.1%) ? 3 vs WAS, 3 vs FLA
5. Paul Lo Duca, NYM 84-for-111 (24.3%) ? 3 vs PHI, 3 vs WAS

Facing these catchers is good news for Orlando Cabrera, Scott Podsednik, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano, Jimmy Rollins, Felipe Lopez, Hanley Ramirez, Maicer Izturis, Darin Erstad
The Player's Paradise
American League:
Baltimore: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Boston: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Chicago White Sox: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Cleveland: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Detroit: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Kansas City: (5 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Los Angeles Angels: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Minnesota: (4 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
New York Yankees: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers)
Oakland: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Seattle: (7 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers)
Tampa Bay: (6 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Texas: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Toronto: (3 vs. Right-handers, 4 vs. Left-handers)

stats based on final 2006 numbers:
Notes: The Indians, Angels, Twins and Blue Jays play at least three southpaws this week, while the Mariners and Yankees only play righthanders. That's good news for Travis Hafner (.321 vs LHPs), Ryan Garko (.333 vs LHPs), Vladimir Guerrero (.401 vs LHPs), Robb Quinlan (.326 vs LHPs), Torii Hunter (.319 vs LHPs), Joe Mauer (.331 vs LHPs), Nick Punto (.331 vs LHPs), Vernon Wells (.333 vs LHPs), Reed Johnson (.323 vs LHPs), Raul Ibanez (.312 vs RHPs), Bobby Abreu (.349 vs RHPs), Robinson Cano (.363 vs RHPs), Derek Jeter (.328 vs RHPs)

And bad news for Grady Sizemore (.214 vs LHPs), Kendry Morales (.229 vs LHPs), Jose Molina (.218 vs LHPs), Matt Lawton (.231 vs RHPs), Ben Broussard (.230 vs RHPs)

National League:
Arizona: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Atlanta: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Chicago Cubs: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Cincinnati: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Colorado: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
Florida: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers)
Houston: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Los Angeles Dodgers: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Milwaukee: (6 vs. Right-handers, 0 vs. Left-handers)
New York Mets: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Philadelphia: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
Pittsburgh: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
San Diego: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)
San Francisco: (5 vs. Right-handers, 1 vs. Left-handers)
St. Louis: (3 vs. Right-handers, 3 vs. Left-handers)
Washington: (4 vs. Right-handers, 2 vs. Left-handers)

The Braves, Astros, Mets and Cardinals play three lefties, while the Marlins and Brewers don't face any. That's good news for Edgar Renteria (.333 vs LHPs), Ryan Langerhans (.308 vs LHPs), Luke Scott (.336 vs RHPs), Lance Berkman (.316 vs RHPs), Jose Reyes (.330 vs LHPs), Paul Lo Duca (.336 vs LHPs), Geoff Jenkins (.306 vs RHPs)

That's bad news for Scott Thorman (.189 vs LHPs), Jason Lane (.201 vs LHPs), Brad Ausmus (.230 vs LHPs), Morgan Ensberg (.235 vs LHPs), Jose Valentin (.219 vs LHPs), Carlos Delgado (.226 vs LHPs), Yadier Molina (.216 vs LHPs), Jim Edmonds (.216 vs LHPs), Matt Treanor (.216 vs RHPs), Cody Ross (.210 vs RHPs), Kevin Mench (.224 vs RHPs)

Some scheduled two-start pitchers in week 3:
John Danks, Joe Kennedy, Justin Verlander, Adam Loewen, Jorge De La Rosa, Gustavo Chacin, Joe Saunders, Paul Byrd, Mike Mussina, Ramon Ortiz, Horacio Ramirez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, James Shields, Robinson Tejeda, Matt Belisle, Micah Owings, Jason Hirsh, Brad Penny, Wandy Rodriguez, Rich Hill, Sergio Mitre, Adam Eaton, Oliver Perez, Noah Lowry, Greg Maddux, Adam Wainwright, Paul Maholm, Jerome Williams, Chuck James

Latest on the injury front:
Outfielders:
Jeff DaVanon (shoulder) ? return mid-April
Chris Denorfia (elbow) ? likely out for the season
Juan Encarnacion (wrist) ? return mid-April
Alex Escobar (shoulder) ? return May/June
Chone Figgins (finger) ? return early May
Lew Ford (knee) ? return mid-April
Jeremy Hermida (knee) ? out until mid-April
Mark Kotsay (back) ? return May/June
Nook Logan (foot) ? return late April
Hideki Matsui (hamstring) ? might be out until Friday
Laynce Nix (ribs) ? return mid-April
Jay Payton (hamstring) ? return mid-April
Jason Repko (groin) ? might be out for the season
Juan Rivera (leg) ? return July/August
Carlos Quentin (shoulder) ? return mid-April

Infielders
Rafael Furcal (ankle) ? return mid-April
Cristian Guzman (hamstring) ? return late April
Dan Johnson (hip) ? out until mid-season
Nick Johnson (leg) ? return mid-season
Corey Koskie (concussion) ? out indefinitely
Dallas McPherson (back) ? return Aug/Sept
Mike Sweeney (toe) ? return mid-April

Catchers:
Chris Coste (hamstring) ? return mid-April
Toby Hall (shoulder) ? might be out for the season
Ramon Hernandez (ribs) ? day-to-day
Victor Martinez (quadriceps) ? might go on the DL
Vance Wilson (ankle) - return mid-April

Designated Hitters:
Greg Norton (knee) ? return mid-May

Starting Pitchers:
Brandon Backe (elbow) ? return August/September
Chris Carpenter (elbow) ? expected to return Tuesday
Matt Clement (shoulder) ? return July/August
Bartolo Colon (shoulder) ? return late April
Lance Cormier (shoulder) ? return mid-April
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (biceps) ? return mid-April
Mike Hampton (ribs) ? hoping to return May 7
Luke Hudson (shoulder) ? return mid-April
Josh Johnson (elbow) ? return mid-season
Randy Johnson (back) ? return April 19 vs. San Diego
Jeff Karstens (elbow) ? return mid-April
Brian Lawrence (shoulder) ? return late April
Cliff Lee (abdomen) ? return late April
Jon Lester (cancer) ? return early May
Francisco Liriano (elbow) ? out for the season
Esteban Loaiza (shoulder) ? return mid-April
Pedro Martinez (shoulder) ? return July/August
Eric Milton (back) ? return mid-April
Mark Mulder (shoulder) ? return July
Kenny Rogers (arm) ? return July
John Thomson (shoulder) ? out indefinitely
Chien-Ming Wang (hamstring) ? return late April
Jered Weaver (biceps) ? scheduled to start on April 16

Important Relievers:
Kris Benson (shoulder) ? likely out for the season
Yhency Brazoban (elbow) ? return mid-season
Octavio Dotel (ribs) ? return mid-April
Eric Gagne (back) ? return April 13
Eddie Guardado (elbow) ? return June/July
Jon Lieber (ribs) ? return mid-April
Tom Martin (groin) ? return mid-April
[URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3262"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3706"]Matt Miller[/URL][/URL] (elbow) ? return early May
Duaner Sanchez (shoulder) ? return July/August
Tanyon Sturtze (shoulder) ? return May/June
Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) ? might mid-April
Mike Timlin (ribs) ? return mid-April
Kerry Wood (triceps) ? return mid- to late April

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

AL Team-by-Team Notes
Even though Kenny Rogers (blood clot) is now set to miss at least the first three months of the season, the Tigers are still planning to go with Chad Durbin as their fifth starter. While Wilfredo Ledezma would have been the more interesting choice for fantasy purposes, the Tigers were only considering Durbin and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4441"]Andrew Miller[/URL] when Rogers initially went on the DL. Miller went on to start the year at Single-A Lakeland, but there's a good chance the job will be his by mid-May. Durbin has a 6.14 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP in 337 1/3 innings as a major leaguer. He's a better pitcher now than he was when he came up with the Royals, but he still shouldn't be more than an adequate stopgap. There's little reason to own him in AL-only leagues. Miller, on the other hand, seems likely to have considerable value before long. He might even be an option in mixed leagues once he gets the call.

American League Notes

Baltimore - So the Twins were 4-for-4 against him and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2074"]Alberto Castillo[/URL] last week. Big deal. Tweaking Daniel Cabrera's delivery in an effort to cut down on the stolen bases he allows has the potential to be disastrous. Maybe Leo Mazzone could make it work, but the 25-year-old Cabrera is so close to finally becoming a very good pitcher that it's not worth trying. If Cabrera does the big things well, it's not going to matter very much that he struggles with the little things. ? The Orioles haven't been quick to place Ramon Hernandez (oblique) on the DL, but it still appears likely to happen. Such a move would probably get Jon Knott called up. He belongs on the roster anyway. Paul Bako would continue to get most of the time behind the plate, but there's just not much he can do to help fantasy teams. ? Jay Payton (hamstring) is eligible to come off the DL on Wednesday. He might need another week or so after that, but when he does return, he could send Freddie Bynum to Triple-A. Kevin Millar stands to lose at-bats after Payton is activated.

Boston - Daisuke Matsuzaka's debut against the Royals was suitably impressive, though it's doubtful that's the best we'll see him all year. His fastball command hasn't been very good in his last three outings, including his final two of the spring, but his offspeed stuff gives him such a huge advantage over hitters that haven't seen him before that it hasn't mattered much. He'll get better, and the league will get better at hitting him. The end result should be a showing that ranks him among the AL's five or 10 best pitchers. ? Julian Tavarez isn't incapable of being an adequate fifth starter, but his poor control is a real problem right now and the Red Sox need to give serious thought to calling up Devern Hansack, who followed up an impressive spring by allowing one run in 5 2/3 innings and striking out 10 in his first start for Pawtucket. If it happens, Hansack would be worth adding in AL-only leagues.

Chicago - Scott Podsednik has started three straight after sitting out the opener, going 4-for-11 with three runs scored. He even played over Pablo Ozuna against left-hander Jeremy Sowers. Still, there's reason for pessimism here. Getting caught by Victor Martinez on two of his three steals attempts against the Indians makes it more obvious than ever that he's lost a step, and it's not like he has a lot to offer a team when he's not the fastest man on the field. Podsednik's defense has never been as good as his speed would suggest, and he finished last year with a .261/.330/.353 line even though he got to sit against plenty of tough lefties. The White Sox will have to consider putting Darin Erstad in left and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1893"]Brian Anderson[/URL] in center if Podsednik slumps. ? As suspected, it doesn't look like anything will materialize from manager Ozzie Guillen's statement that someone besides Bobby Jenks could close. Jenks has a win and a save while throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings so far and already seems well on his way to another 35- or 40-save season. ? Mark Buehrle is likely to pitch Wednesday despite a bruised left forearm, but if not, Nick Masset could go in his place.

Cleveland - The strained quad suffered by Victor Martinez in Friday's frigid conditions could put him on the disabled list on Sunday. The Indians would turn to Kelly Shoppach as their starting catcher and call up Mike Rose to serve as the backup. Shoppach won't hit for average, but he could be good for a couple of homers while Martinez is out. He'll also help the Indians control the running game. Casey Blake figures to replace Martinez in the cleanup spot, with David Dellucci, Jhonny Peralta and Josh Barfield also moving up in the lineup. ? Grady Sizemore followed up a spring in which he hit .115 with three extra-base hits in 61 at-bats by delivering three homers in his first three games. Batting leadoff behind Andy Marte (and now Shoppach) will hurt him when it comes to RBI, but he's easily a top-10 fantasy outfielder. I have him projected to lead the majors in runs scored ahead of Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter and Jose Reyes.

Kansas City - Overshadowed by Matsuzaka's debut was Zack Greinke's fine performance in the same game. Though he had the leadoff man on against him six times in seven innings, he allowed just one earned run, and he struck out David Ortiz three times. If he pitched in the NL or even on a better AL team, he'd be an option in shallow mixed leagues right now. As is, he might have to settle for being just a solid AL-only starter. ? It's conceivable that the Royals could send Alex Gordon to Triple-A Omaha if he struggles throughout April. Still, it's rather early to be worrying about that. Gordon is going to hit, probably soon. His defense remains a work in progress, but it's something the Royals are willing to live with. On the off chance that Gordon does play his way back to the minors, Esteban German should become the Royals' third baseman. It wouldn't make sense to move Mark Teahen back when he'd probably return to right field in 2008. ? David Riske will close for another week while Octavio Dotel recovers from a strained oblique.

Los Angeles - I wasn't expecting much from Bartolo Colon as he tries to recover from a rotator cuff tear, but his rehab has gone exceedingly well. He threw in the low-90s regularly and touched 94 mph in his rehab start on Thursday. I still think it'd be a mistake to expect greatness, but maybe he'll have some value in shallow mixed leagues in any case. ? The Angels could get Shea Hillenbrand (groin) back on Sunday, though they shouldn't be in any hurry at all. They're a better defensive team with Reggie Willits in a corner and either Vladimir Guerrero or Garret Anderson DHing, and Willits' on-base ability helps out in an area in which the entire lineup is lacking. ? Jered Weaver (biceps) will make one more rehab start before facing the Red Sox on April 16.

Minnesota - Nick Punto was a capable regular for the Twins last year because he cut way back on the strikeouts. However, with so little power and history of not hitting for average, his margin for error is very slim, especially since he's playing third base rather than a middle infield spot. Odds are that Punto will disappoint this year, and the Twins may be forced to go outside of the organization for an alternative come July. Don't be surprised if Jason Bartlett overtakes him as the No. 2 hitter before then. ? Rondell White is day-to-day with a strained right calf. Jason Tyner filled in Saturday and would continue to do so, though the Twins could also use Jason Kubel in left field and Jeff Cirillo at DH.

New York - The Yankees' starting pitching was dreadful in the first four games, and we haven't even seen fifth starter Darrell Rasner yet. Fortunately, Chien-Ming Wang may be less than two weeks away. Mike Mussina's velocity will improve this month, just like it has in recent years, and he should be fine. I don't expect quite as much from Andy Pettitte, but the offense will get him to 15 wins if his elbow holds up for another 200 innings, making him a $13 pitcher in AL-only leagues. Kei Igawa worries me. He should have the advantage over AL hitters in his introduction to the league, but he's just not throwing enough strikes. Carl Pavano has yet to show anything that suggests he'll be worth more than a couple of bucks this year. Even if Phil Hughes progresses as hoped or Roger Clemens signs on, the Yankees may need to trade for a starting pitcher at the deadline. ? The Yankees are getting Johnny Damon (calf) back in the starting lineup on Sunday, but it looks like Hideki Matsui (hamstring) could miss a week or two. Melky Cabrera has yet to resemble the productive rookie he was last year, so it's a costly loss. If Matsui is forced to the DL, the Yankees might opt to give Kevin Thompson starts over Cabrera.

Oakland - Travis Buck made the A's after all, but with the club getting favorable reports back on Dan Johnson (hip) and Mark Kotsay (back), he may not be up for good. Johnson might be back in about a month, and Kotsay is hoping to return in early June. Either could push Buck back to the minors, depending on how the rookie performs. If Buck proves he's ready now, the A's probably wouldn't be in any hurry to go back to Johnson at first base. Buck isn't going to be good for many homers or steals, leaving him with little short-term upside in AL-only leagues. Still, he is worth using while playing against right-handers. ? Todd Walker was also kept, bumping Antonio Perez off the roster. It seems unlikely there will be much for Walker to do unless Buck slumps. As is, he's just a backup at first and second. It will take another injury to make him worth using in AL-only leagues. ? Bobby Crosby hopes to return to shortstop on Sunday after missing Saturday's game with back spasms.

Seattle - Going from Jeremy Reed to former Giant Jason Ellison off the bench is a downgrade both offensively and defensively, but since Reed was barely going to play while everyone was healthy, it makes sense to have him in Triple-A and Ellison acting as the backup in center field, especially since the Mariners seem willing to use Ben Broussard in the corners. Plus, in former top prospect Travis Blackley, the club only had to surrender a long shot to acquire him last weekend. It'd be bad news for the Mariners if Ellison plays enough to amass any fantasy value. ? Julio Mateo already showed last week why he may be the AL's top candidate for vulture wins. As a flyball pitcher, he'll likely help in WHIP even if his ERA isn't very good, and since he should win 6-8 games, he's worth owning in AL-only leagues.

Tampa Bay - I've been more impressed by the hot starts from B.J. Upton and Elijah Dukes than the even better one experienced by Akinori Iwamura to date. Upton seems poised to seize the full-time job at second base and steal 30 bases, making him a worthy addition in shallow mixed leagues. Dukes doesn't have quite that much upside, but it looks like he's going to get a lot of playing time, perhaps making Jonny Gomes the odd man out. Iwamura has displayed a disciplined approach and the ability to go the other way. Still, I don't think the power is going to be there in abundance, and it's going to be difficult for him to rack up strong run and RBI numbers while batting in the bottom half of the lineup. He'll surely be of help in AL-only leagues, but he's not worth using in shallow mixed leagues right now. ? If Jorge Cantu wants out after getting demoted by the Rays, he's going to have to smack around Triple-A pitching for a month or two. He currently has little trade value, as evidenced by the Rays' failures in their attempts to move him in the offseason. Cantu is likely to get a starting job somewhere by June or July, though he may not be a second baseman when it happens. He'd make more sense at third or maybe even first. ? Anthony Reyes got the Rays' first save opportunity and should get most of the chances to pitch the ninth as long as he remains successful. Brian Stokes appears to be second in line for save opps at the moment.

Texas - The Rangers are having Sammy Sosa, Brad Wilkerson and [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=1390"]Nelson Cruz[/URL] share time between two spots while waiting for someone to separate himself. Sosa failed to impress in his first three regular-season games, collecting his lone RBI on a check-swing that he just wasn't able to pull back. He did homer Saturday off J.C. Romero, a pitcher the Red Sox never should have had in to face him. Sosa is probably going to continue to get a few more at-bats than Wilkerson and Cruz as he's given a chance to prove he has something left. Of course, he's also the one member of the group that could potentially be released by June 1. ? Robinson Tejeda's strong outing against the Red Sox probably wasn't a sign of things to come. He's walked more than a batter every other inning as a major leaguer, and his flyball tendencies will lead to homers at Rangers Ballpark, especially once it warms up. He'd be a sleeper in another stadium, but his upside is quite limited in Texas. ? Eric Gagne was able to get through back-to-back appearances on Friday and Saturday and is scheduled to make one more trip to the mound for Double-A Frisco on Tuesday before being activated Friday. It's likely that he'll be eased into the closer's role after returning, so Akinori Otsuka will still be worth using in mixed leagues.

Toronto - It's difficult to get excited about any of the final three members of the Toronto rotation. Gustavo Chacin isn't keeping as many batters off balance with his delivery as he did initially and has now given up 22 homers in 93 1/3 innings since the start of last year. Tomo Ohka, the best bet of the group to win 13-14 games, may be worth using in 4x4 leagues. However, there's little reason to think he'll do better than a 4.50-4.70 ERA in his return to the American League. Josh Towers shouldn't even be that good. I see Casey Janssen as a better sleeper than any of them. If the Jays keep using Janssen for multiple innings at a time out of the pen, it won't be tough to stretch him out come May or June. ? Troy Glaus might miss some time with a possible Achilles' tendon strain suffered Saturday. Jason Smith will start at third base for as long as he's out. Of the Jays' big hitters, Glaus is the one the team can least afford to lose, simply because Adam Lind isn't an option to replace him.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

NL Team-by-Team Notes Unlike Jose Capellan, James Loney can't be blamed for wanting a trade. He's done everything he can to prove he belongs, even shining in his 102 at-bats in the majors last season. The Dodgers will eventually have a spot for him, whether it's in left field over [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3797"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4378"]Luis Gonzalez[/URL][/URL] or at first base because of an injury to Nomar Garciaparra, so they'd be foolish to trade him unless it'd land them a big upgrade. The Red Sox would almost certainly surrender Mike Lowell for him, but that's not enough. I would hope the Rays have already offered up Jorge Cantu along with a quality prospect for the slick-fielding first baseman. Still, odds are the Dodgers will just wait and see what happens.
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National League notes

Arizona - Miguel Montero got his third start on Sunday, versus four so far for Opening Day catcher Chris Snyder. The guess here is that Montero will win out eventually and finish with 60-80 more at-bats than Snyder this year. Still, as evenly as they're splitting time, it doesn't look like either will be a strong contributor within the first couple of months. Montero is the one of the pair more likely to go on a tear offensively. ? Edgar Gonzalez and Micah Owings both impressed in their first starts, though since they came against the Nationals, only so much can be read into the performances. The two are vying to remain in the rotation following Randy Johnson's much anticipated return on April 19. Owings is the more intriguing pitcher from a fantasy standpoint, but he's at a disadvantage right now. Since Gonzalez is out of options, he'll likely keep the spot with another successful outing this week. ? With the Diamondbacks having home series against the Reds and Rockies this week, Scott Hairston is a solid play even in shallow mixed leagues. Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is at least 7-10 days away.
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Atlanta - Mike Hampton's setback with his elbow on Sunday suggests there's little chance of him coming off the DL before the beginning of June. The Braves would probably be happy just to get him back at full strength during the season half of the season. Fortunately, Lance Cormier and Kyle Davies both pitched as well as anyone could have hoped during spring training. Davies followed that up with a fine effort Sunday against the Mets, and Cormier (triceps) should be back from the DL within two weeks to reclaim the rotation spot he earned last month. Davies would be worth using in NL-only leagues if something went wrong with Cormier's rehab. As is, it appears likely that he'll return to Triple-A before the end of the month. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3187"]Craig Wilson[/URL]'s ugly end to spring training has carried over into the regular season, but since Scott Thorman also hasn't done much yet, the Braves aren't going to have to reevaluate the platoon at first base. NL-only leaguers will want to be patient with Wilson.
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Chicago - Rich Hill and Ted Lilly both showed why they need to be owned in mixed leagues with their performances in week one. Hill gave up just one hit in seven innings, though it was a solo homer. He will have trouble with home runs, making it difficult for him to post an ERA much under 4.00. However, his strikeout rate and WHIP should make up for it. Lilly has a real chance of beating him in ERA thanks to the league switch. The problem there is that he's a poor bet to last 200 innings. Still, he's a nice choice when healthy. ? Wade Miller wasn't so successful in his debut Sunday, giving up six runs in four innings against the Brewers. He fanned 17 in 20 1/3 innings this spring, but he couldn't strike out one batter yesterday. With shoulder problems robbing him of his best stuff, he's probably not going to contribute in NL-only leagues. The Cubs might be ready to turn to Mark Prior or Angel Guzman by May 1. ? Jacque Jones' slow start got him sat down against a left-hander on Sunday. The Cubs aren't going to shove him into a platoon role yet, but if he continues to slump, Ryan Theriot might see more time over him versus southpaws. The Player's Paradise

Cincinnati - In the giving-credit-where-credit-is-due department, Reds manager Jerry Narron has so far done some very good things with his lineup. Not only was hitting Adam Dunn second against righties a smart move, but the way he's switching Edwin Encarnacion and Ken Griffey Jr. in the fourth and fifth spots depending on matchups also makes sense. The only change I'd like to see is for Encarnacion to bat third and Brandon Phillips go into the fifth spot against righties. Even during his breakthrough season, Phillips had just a .324 OBP, and his stolen bases could be of more use in front of the bottom of the lineup. Encarnacion might already be the Reds' best player. ? David Weathers seems poised to get 80-90 percent of the Reds' save chances, with Mike Stanton or another southpaw getting the call on occasions in which the opposing team is due to send up left-handed hitters in the ninth. Surprisingly, Kirk Saarloos, not Todd Coffey, seems to be the top right-handed setup man right now. Coffey still looks like the best bet of anyone currently in the pen to eventually seize the job from Weathers. However, Eddie Guardado (elbow) is at least as likely to end the year as the Reds' closer.

Colorado - That the Rockies have already given Steve Finley two starts in center field has to be discouraging for Willy Taveras owners. Fortunately, Finley's corpse has done nothing with them, going 1-for-11. Taveras is similarly off to a poor start, but he's already stolen two bases despite reaching safely just three times. Taveras shouldn't ever have to worry about losing his starting job to Finley, but it'd still be nice to see him get hot and show the Rockies he should be in the lineup six times per week. It'd definitely make him a better play in mixed leagues. ? The Colorado rotation is off to a fantastic start, with Rodrigo Lopez and Jason Hirsh performing especially well in their debuts for the team. Both could defy expectations early on, especially with the cold weather likely to amplify the humidor effect at Coors Field. Still, there's just not much fantasy upside with either. Jeff Francis and maybe Aaron Cook are the Rockies starters worth considering in NL-only leagues.

Florida - After two sloppy appearances to start the year, Jorge Julio didn't receive a chance to blow Sunday's game, getting pulled in favor of Lee Gardner after loading the bases in the ninth. The Marlins want Julio to be their closer, but they might want to let him pitch in other situations until he works through his current struggles. Julio is a below average reliever for sure, but he's not this dreadful. Henry Owens appears to be next in line for saves, though Kevin Gregg and Matt Lindstrom will be in the picture. Also, Taylor Tankersley (shoulder) should return before the end of the week. Julio is worth holding on to in practically every league. Owens needs be picked up. ? Jeremy Hermida (knee) sure does take his time recovering from injuries. He's set to miss another three or four weeks with his bruised knee, forcing the Marlins to stick with a right-field platoon of Joe Borchard and Cody Ross longer than expected. ? Hanley Ramirez's hamstring injury apparently was something of a false alarm. He should be back in the lineup on Tuesday. ? Josh Willingham (back) and Miguel Olivo (thumb) are safe to have active this week.

Houston - The Astros have no shortage of problems, but it's Brad Lidge's struggles getting most of the attention. The club hasn't been able to hand him another lead since he blew a save on Opening Day, and when he did finally make his second appearance in a lost cause on Sunday, he was lit up by the Cardinals. Lidge will probably get the next save chance the Astros generate, but Dan Wheeler is at least as good of a bet to be the team's closer come May 1. Lidge can't be given up on by either the Astros or his fantasy owners, but it's clear that he's not even close to being a quality reliever right now. ? Fortunately, it doesn't look like the bizarre decision to bat Adam Everett second on Opening Day was a sign of things to come. Morgan Ensberg and Chris Burke have both gotten a couple of starts there since, and though they haven't done much with them, they're clearly superior options. Phil Garner is hoping someone gets hot so that he can stick him there full-time. Burke might have the best chance.

Los Angeles - Dodgers manager Grady Little has chosen to ignore [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3797"][URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4378"]Luis Gonzalez[/URL][/URL]'s horrible defense so far, sitting Andre Ethier all three times that Matt Kemp has been in the lineup against lefties. That's even though Ethier hit .351 in 77 at-bats against southpaws last year. Gonzalez was at .259. It could be the Gonzalez signing that costs the Dodgers a postseason appearance this year. It's be no surprise to see Gonzalez end up doing just enough offensively to stay in the lineup the entire season, all the while steadily hurting the club with his defense and blocking superior players. Maybe Loney, Kemp and Andy LaRoche aren't all better options right now, but two of the three will be by June or July. Loney just needs to keep working on learning the outfield for another month. ? Rafael Furcal (ankle) is close enough to coming off the DL that he should be activated in NL-only leagues this week. Mixed leaguers with a quality alternative may want to wait.www.sports

- Jose Capellan has requested a trade after failing to make the Brewers and seems likely to go, perhaps to Colorado or San Francisco. San Fran would make more sense, given his flyball tendencies. Even though he's one of the NL's harder throwers, the 26-year-old Capellan is prone to the home run because his fastball is so straight. He also lacks a big weapon against left-handers. The Brewers still shouldn't give him away, but he no longer looks like a potential long-term closer. ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3875"]Corey Hart[/URL] has already found himself on the bench twice, first in favor of Kevin Mench and then again on Sunday so that Gabe Gross could make his first start. Even after parting with Brady Clark, the Brewers still have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Hart has 20-20 potential, but until he gets hot, he's going to be a weak play in mixed leagues.

New York - Did I miss the memo? Is it now mandatory to say that he's the game's most exciting player when referring to Jose Reyes? Regardless of whether he is or not, it's quickly becoming an annoying trend. Reyes may be emerging one of the best players in baseball, but I'd like to enjoy it without having every little thing he does get blown out of proportion (see Jeter, Derek). Besides, right now, Carlos Beltran is still putting more wins on the board for the Mets. ? Mike Pelfrey will be called up to make his season debut Friday against the Nationals. He'll be well worth using in NL-only leagues then. Orlando Hernandez and John Maine should be active in mixed leagues since they also get to take on the Nationals during the weekend series. ? Maine had the most impressive first-week outing for the Mets, but Oliver Perez's showing was awfully encouraging, too, especially the no walks in seven innings against the Braves. He threw just 82 pitches on his way to a victory. Perez's best fastball from three years ago rarely makes an appearance these days, but he doesn't need to throw in the mid-90s to succeed, not when he has good command. Some inconsistency seems likely, but his upside demands that he be owned in mixed leagues.

Philadelphia - [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (biceps) is due to return from the DL and face the Astros on Sunday, so he's worth activating in NL-only leagues. Jon Lieber is also set to be activated, but he'll be in the bullpen. ? Picking up Francisco Rosario from the Jays was a nice move for the Phillies, but it may not aid the Philadelphia pen right away. Rosario, a top prospect as a starter before Tommy John surgery, is too inconsistent to be counted on as a setup man right now. He should eventually grow into the role, but he'll have to do so in the majors since he's out of options. The Phillies should use him when they're behind for the most part. ? Getting Jayson Werth into the lineup against lefties makes sense, but both times he's played so far, it's been at Shane Victorino's expense, even though Victorino is off to a much better start than Aaron Rowand and was also the superior player this spring. Rowand seems poised to disappoint in fantasy leagues again. The Phillies don't need to bench him, as his defense makes him valuable as long as he keeps his OPS in the 750 range, but neither do they need to give him more starts than Victorino. Victorino is the better fantasy property of the two even with a slightly reduced role.

Pittsburgh - With his ice-cold start, it was a given that Jose Castillo would head to the bench following Freddy Sanchez's return from a knee injury on Sunday. The mild surprise was that Ryan Doumit, not Brad Eldred, was sent down to open up a roster spot. Eldred didn't even have an at-bat through five games. The Pirates, though, stuck him in right field on Sunday, and he responded with a homer and a double against the Reds. If Eldred is going to be on the roster, the Pirates need to keep finding ways to use him against lefties. However, they're not going to platoon Adam LaRoche and putting Eldred in right and Xavier Nady in center weakens the defense even more than it improves the offense. Eldred still looks like a weak play in NL-only leagues. ? It appeared the Pirates might have big problems at the end of games after Matt Capps and Salomon Torres combined to give up 18 runs in 16 2/3 innings this spring, but since Opening Day, the two have allowed one run, two hits and no walks in 8 1/3 innings, with Torres converting all four of his save chances. I'm still sort of skeptical about Torres finishing the year as a $20-$25 closer, but now that Capps has turned it around following his lousy March, he's highly recommended as a setup man.

St. Louis - It took a setback Sunday for the Cardinals to decide Chris Carpenter's injury was worthy of an MRI exam. Management gave Carpenter a $63.5 million contract extension in December, yet his elbow needed to swell up twice before it was decided that he needed tests. I just don't get it. ? With Carpenter out, the Cardinals may haul up Blake Hawksworth to start Tuesday. Hawksworth reemerged as a quality prospect last year after missing most of 2004 and 2005 with shoulder problems, but he has just 13 starts in Double-A and none in Triple-A to his credit. He's probably not going to be worth using in fantasy leagues even if Carpenter ends up spending considerable time on the DL. ? Chris Duncan got the start in the Cardinals' second game against a lefty after manager Tony La Russa drew criticism by not playing him versus Tom Glavine on Opening Night. Duncan responded with a homer off Wandy Rodriguez in that game and is hitting .389 overall. He'll likely remain a full-time player, at least until Juan Encarnacion (wrist) returns. With the way Preston Wilson and So Taguchi have performed since the start of the March, there could be a case for using Duncan against lefties all year long.

San Diego - Russell Branyan homered Saturday in his first start at third base and was 6-for-9 against Aaron Cook, Sunday's scheduled starter. Still, manager Bud Black went back to Kevin Kouzmanoff anyway and was rewarded when Kouzmanoff delivered a game-winning hit. The Padres will continue to spot Branyan against certain right-handers, but Kouzmanoff will bounce back from his slow start and produce a respectable batting average and solid power numbers. More than anything else, it was his injury history that caused me to rank him as the No. 31 third baseman entering the season.

San Francisco - Barry Zito had an 11.57 ERA after two starts in 2005 and an 8.59 mark after two outings last year, so this year's 8.18 mark hardly seems worth getting excited about. It's not too early to see if he's a buy-low possibility. ? Stuck in the eighth spot in the lineup, Randy Winn went the first week without a run scored or an RBI. He's going to continue to have major problems contributing in both categories unless he moves up in the order, and considering that he finished with just 11 homers and 10 steals in 573 at-bats while batting mostly leadoff last year, it's not like he's going to do a lot else to help. He's not an option in mixed leagues right now. ? Giants manager Bruce Bochy did a surprisingly good job of getting Ryan Klesko at-bats last week, giving him a start over Rich Aurilia once and also playing Aurilia at third base to open up a spot. If it keeps up, Klesko will be worth playing in NL-only leagues.

Washington - The Nationals lost Cristian Guzman (hamstring) and Nook Logan (ankle) to injuries on Opening Day and have already moved Dmitri Young up and Brian Schneider down in the lineup. Stability is not going to be a trademark in Washington this year. Guzman and Logan won't be eligible to return for at least another week, so Kory Casto and Ronnie Belliard will continue to be adequate plays in NL-only leagues. Ryan Church's stock seems up. He leads the Nats in homers (two) and doubles (four) and has already overtaken Schneider for the sixth spot in the lineup. He's not an option in mixed leagues, but a good April would make it tougher for the Nationals to bench him should he slump in May or June. ? Where the Nationals are having problems is at the top of the lineup, something that probably won't be helped by Guzman's return. Felipe Lopez is 10-for-30, but that's gotten him one run scored and no RBI. Ryan Zimmerman has just one RBI to go along with his .286 average. Zimmerman could play like an All-Star and still disappoint in fantasy leagues because of the lack of opportunities to drive in runs. Lopez at least will start stealing bases sometime soon.
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[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">MRI for Carpenter
It looked for a moment like St. Louis avoided disaster with Chris Carpenter's elbow injury, with the Cardinals saying late last week that they expected him to make his scheduled start Tuesday. That all changed over the weekend, with the team announcing that Carpenter will not make that start and will instead undergo an MRI exam. Carpenter threw what was initially deemed a successful bullpen session Saturday, but woke up with a swollen elbow Sunday morning.

The concern thus far is with the swelling, rather than any significant pain, but clearly the Cardinals are now worried that it's a lot more serious than they first expected. In a weird twist of fate, Carpenter gave up five runs on Opening Day and is now hurt, while the rest of the rotation?which was widely considered to be a big question mark coming out of spring training?has posted a combined 3.19 ERA through five starts.

While Cardinals fans and Carpenter fantasy owners hold their collective breath awaiting the MRI results, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Johnny Damon returned to action by going 2-for-2 with a double off the bench Sunday, but the Yankees lost Hideki Matsui to the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Damon indicated that he expects to be in the lineup against Minnesota to begin the week, with the climate-controlled Metrodome potentially helping to keep his calves healthy. With Damon back, Melky Cabrera can stop subbing for him in center field and begin subbing for Matsui in left field.

Matsui heading to the DL with a relatively minor injury is surprising given that it took a broken wrist last season to snap his streak of 1,768 consecutive games played dating back to his days in Japan. Despite Damon being gimpy and Matsui heading to the sidelines, general manager Brian Cashman continues to insist that Bernie Williams is not on the radar. Instead, Kevin Thompson was called up from Triple-A, but Cabrera figures to get the bulk of the at-bats.

* Randy Johnson made a minor-league rehab start at Single-A Sunday, tossing six innings of two-run ball while allowing four hits and recording four strikeouts. Johnson, who's recovering from offseason back surgery, reportedly worked in the low-90s with his fastball and said afterward that he'd "like to get my velocity going here a little." Johnson also said that he's not "yet convinced that I'm ready to pitch at the major-league level."

Of course, Johnson stopped himself from being too pessimistic by adding that "it's kind of hard to gauge how successful you really are when you're pitching against minor-league kids, because they're so aggressive." He's expected to make one more minor-league start, this time at Triple-A on April 13, and is then scheduled to join the Diamondbacks' rotation. His season debut is tentatively scheduled for April 19 against the Padres.

* Tim Lincecum doesn't get nearly the hype that fellow elite pitching prospects Philip Hughes and Homey Bailey receive, but after watching him during spring training I'm convinced that the No. 10 pick in last June's draft may have the best chance of the three to make a significant big-league impact by midseason. Because of that, I'm considering making keeping tabs on him a regular feature of "Daily Dose."

A 5-foot-11, 160-pound flamethrower out of the University of Washington, Lincecum led all of college baseball in strikeouts last season before posting a 1.78 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 31.2 pro innings after signing. Armed with a unique, high-effort delivery, mid-90s fastball, and backbreaking curveball, Lincecum made his Triple-A debut Saturday by racking up eight strikeouts in five scoreless innings. The Lincecum Watch is officially on.

AL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne (elbow) is scheduled to come off the disabled list Friday, but may be worked back into the bullpen mix in non-save situations ? Chone Figgins (fingers) could be cleared to begin throwing soon, but remains 2-3 weeks from returning ? Rondell White (calf) will likely be sidelined for several more days ? Despite leaving Sunday's game, Troy Glaus' heel injury doesn't sound serious ? Bad weather kept Johnny Damon (calf) from starting Sunday, but he went 2-for-2 with a double after entering in the seventh inning ? With B.J. Ryan having worked back-to-back days, the Blue Jays left Casey Janssen in for a two-inning save Sunday ? Bobby Crosby (back) returned to the lineup Sunday ? Minnesota's rotation has been strong thus far and Matt Garza had a rough debut at Triple-A Saturday, so don't expect a quick promotion ? Rocco Baldelli started in center field Saturday and stole a base Sunday, showing that his hamstring is close to being healthy.

NL Quick Hits: Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) is expected back in the lineup Tuesday ? Freddy Sanchez (knee) showed that he was healthy Sunday by going 2-for-4 with a double ? Chris Coste (hamstring) was activated from the disabled list, but the Phillies optioned him to Triple-A and chose to keep Michael Bourn as their 25th man ? Mike Hampton threw a bullpen session Saturday in his comeback from an oblique strain, but had to cut things short when his surgically repaired left elbow became a problem ? After being benched Saturday because of a 2-for-17 start, rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff bounced back with a walk-off single Sunday ? Mike Pelfrey, who's set to join the Mets' rotation Friday, allowed two runs over five innings in a tune-up at Single-A ? Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday that the Marlins don't expect Jeremy Hermida (knee) back until at least the end of the month ? After taking batting practice Saturday, Carlos Quentin (shoulder) reportedly hopes to return in about one week.
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</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>MRI for Carpenter It looked for a moment like St. Louis avoided disaster with Chris Carpenter's elbow injury, with the Cardinals saying late last week that they expected him to make his scheduled start Tuesday. That all changed over the weekend, with the team announcing that Carpenter will not make that start and will instead undergo an MRI exam. Carpenter threw what was initially deemed a successful bullpen session Saturday, but woke up with a swollen elbow Sunday morning.

The concern thus far is with the swelling, rather than any significant pain, but clearly the Cardinals are now worried that it's a lot more serious than they first expected. In a weird twist of fate, Carpenter gave up five runs on Opening Day and is now hurt, while the rest of the rotation?which was widely considered to be a big question mark coming out of spring training?has posted a combined 3.19 ERA through five starts.

While Cardinals fans and Carpenter fantasy owners hold their collective breath awaiting the MRI results, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Johnny Damon returned to action by going 2-for-2 with a double off the bench Sunday, but the Yankees lost Hideki Matsui to the disabled list with a hamstring injury. Damon indicated that he expects to be in the lineup against Minnesota to begin the week, with the climate-controlled Metrodome potentially helping to keep his calves healthy. With Damon back, Melky Cabrera can stop subbing for him in center field and begin subbing for Matsui in left field.

Matsui heading to the DL with a relatively minor injury is surprising given that it took a broken wrist last season to snap his streak of 1,768 consecutive games played dating back to his days in Japan. Despite Damon being gimpy and Matsui heading to the sidelines, general manager Brian Cashman continues to insist that Bernie Williams is not on the radar. Instead, Kevin Thompson was called up from Triple-A, but Cabrera figures to get the bulk of the at-bats.

* Randy Johnson made a minor-league rehab start at Single-A Sunday, tossing six innings of two-run ball while allowing four hits and recording four strikeouts. Johnson, who's recovering from offseason back surgery, reportedly worked in the low-90s with his fastball and said afterward that he'd "like to get my velocity going here a little." Johnson also said that he's not "yet convinced that I'm ready to pitch at the major-league level."

Of course, Johnson stopped himself from being too pessimistic by adding that "it's kind of hard to gauge how successful you really are when you're pitching against minor-league kids, because they're so aggressive." He's expected to make one more minor-league start, this time at Triple-A on April 13, and is then scheduled to join the Diamondbacks' rotation. His season debut is tentatively scheduled for April 19 against the Padres.

* Tim Lincecum doesn't get nearly the hype that fellow elite pitching prospects Philip Hughes and Homey Bailey receive, but after watching him during spring training I'm convinced that the No. 10 pick in last June's draft may have the best chance of the three to make a significant big-league impact by midseason. Because of that, I'm considering making keeping tabs on him a regular feature of "Daily Dose."

A 5-foot-11, 160-pound flamethrower out of the University of Washington, Lincecum led all of college baseball in strikeouts last season before posting a 1.78 ERA and 58 strikeouts in 31.2 pro innings after signing. Armed with a unique, high-effort delivery, mid-90s fastball, and backbreaking curveball, Lincecum made his Triple-A debut Saturday by racking up eight strikeouts in five scoreless innings. The Lincecum Watch is officially on.

AL Quick Hits: Eric Gagne (elbow) is scheduled to come off the disabled list Friday, but may be worked back into the bullpen mix in non-save situations ? Chone Figgins (fingers) could be cleared to begin throwing soon, but remains 2-3 weeks from returning ? Rondell White (calf) will likely be sidelined for several more days ? Despite leaving Sunday's game, Troy Glaus' heel injury doesn't sound serious ? Bad weather kept Johnny Damon (calf) from starting Sunday, but he went 2-for-2 with a double after entering in the seventh inning ? With B.J. Ryan having worked back-to-back days, the Blue Jays left Casey Janssen in for a two-inning save Sunday ? Bobby Crosby (back) returned to the lineup Sunday ? Minnesota's rotation has been strong thus far and Matt Garza had a rough debut at Triple-A Saturday, so don't expect a quick promotion ? Rocco Baldelli started in center field Saturday and stole a base Sunday, showing that his hamstring is close to being healthy.

NL Quick Hits: Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) is expected back in the lineup Tuesday ? Freddy Sanchez (knee) showed that he was healthy Sunday by going 2-for-4 with a double ? Chris Coste (hamstring) was activated from the disabled list, but the Phillies optioned him to Triple-A and chose to keep Michael Bourn as their 25th man ? Mike Hampton threw a bullpen session Saturday in his comeback from an oblique strain, but had to cut things short when his surgically repaired left elbow became a problem ? After being benched Saturday because of a 2-for-17 start, rookie Kevin Kouzmanoff bounced back with a walk-off single Sunday ? Mike Pelfrey, who's set to join the Mets' rotation Friday, allowed two runs over five innings in a tune-up at Single-A ? Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday that the Marlins don't expect Jeremy Hermida (knee) back until at least the end of the month ? After taking batting practice Saturday, Carlos Quentin (shoulder) reportedly hopes to return in about one week.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Lidge Out, Wheeler In
In a move that has been a year in the making, manager Phil Garner officially relieved Brad Lidge of closer duties Monday. Dan Wheeler, who has served as Lidge's setup man for the past two-plus seasons, will take over ninth-inning duties. Wheeler has been among the better non-closer relievers in the league since the Astros got him from the Mets in late 2004, and immediately becomes one of the better fantasy closers in the NL.

He doesn't have the same kind of strikeout potential that Lidge possesses, but few pitchers do. Wheeler still misses plenty of bats?striking out 146 batters in 162 innings since arriving in Houston?and throws strikes while doing a good job keeping the ballpark in the ballpark. Meanwhile, rather than switching roles with Wheeler and taking over as a setup man, Garner indicated that Lidge will work middle relief in an effort to get him back on track.

Lidge serving up that memorable homer to Albert Pujols in Game 5 the 2005 NLCS is usually pointed to as the beginning of his steep decline, and that may indeed be the case. However, it's also worth noting that he'll turn 31 years old on his next birthday and was worked hard by the Astros prior to his recent struggles. From 2003-2005, Lidge threw a total of 250 innings, including 94.2 frames in 2004.

Between the shaken confidence, heavy workload, and being on the wrong side of 30, it's not shocking that Lidge wasn't able to keep up the same level of dominance that he displayed in 2004 and 2005. It seems likely that the Astros will try to deal Lidge to a team that still views him as a late-inning option, and if not Garner may soon turn back to him anyway rather than let Rick White cough up leads in front of Wheeler. In either case, there's still fantasy value left in Lidge.

While Wheeler begins his time as a household fantasy name, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* An MRI on Chris Carpenter's injured right elbow revealed what the Cardinals are calling "moderate arthritis and a mild impingement." An arthritic right elbow sounds like very bad long-term news for Carpenter, but that's such an uncommon diagnosis that it's tough to get a feel for exactly what the impact will be. In the short term, the Cardinals are no doubt pleased that the MRI failed to show any ligament damage, which was surely their primary concern.

Carpenter has been placed on the disabled list, retroactive to April 2, and the team said Monday that he'll be reevaluated in 10-14 days. Early speculation had the Cardinals calling up prospects Chris Narveson or Blake Hawksworth to replace Carpenter in the rotation, but instead minor-league veteran Randy Keisler is getting the nod. The best-case scenario for Carpenter is a return at the end of the month, but there's certainly not a definitive timetable at this point.

* A strained oblique muscle during spring training delayed Mike Hampton's comeback from Tommy John surgery, but now another serious elbow injury has overtaken the oblique strain as his biggest problem. Hampton's surgically repaired left elbow began hurting during a bullpen session Sunday and it turns out that he has a torn flexor tendon, which typically takes 6-9 months to recover from. The good news? That leaves him with enough time to be ready for next spring.

However, at that point Hampton will have missed back-to-back seasons (and half of a third year) with a pair of severe elbow injuries. In other words, his long-term prospects are pretty dim. For the rest of this season, Hampton's injury means that Lance Cormier's spot in the rotation should be secure assuming he can return soon from a shoulder injury of his own. Kyle Davies, who's currently subbing for Cormier as the replacement for Hampton, should also get plenty of starts.

* With Rondell White heading to the disabled list with a calf strain, Jason Tyner should get the bulk of the playing time in left field and has enough speed to be a worthwhile pickup. Along with losing White, Minnesota will also be without Jeff Cirillo, who's set to undergo knee surgery that's expected to keep him sidelined for at least a month. To replace him on the roster, 22-year-old middle-infield prospect Alexi Casilla was called up from Triple-A.

Cirillo had been acting as Jason Kubel's platoon partner at designated hitter and the backup at both corner-infield spots, but Casilla is a slap-hitting speedster who's severely miscast in that role. In fact, his only chance for significant playing time would seemingly come at Jason Bartlett's expense, which could be a possibility with Bartlett starting 1-for-18 at the plate while making three errors at shortstop. Casilla is a good long-term bet, but may not be ready quite yet.

AL Quick Hits: Mark Buehrle (forearm) has been cleared to start Wednesday against the A's ? Octavio Dotel (oblique) could return over the weekend, but manager Buddy Bell didn't sound optimistic about the possibility when asked Monday ? Because of injuries and good pitching, Rich Harden's loss to the White Sox Monday was his first since August 9, 2005 ? Meanwhile, because of injuries and poor pitching, Carl Pavano's win over the Twins Monday was his first since May 22, 2005 ? Thanks in large part to the four straight snowed-out games, the Indians may be able to avoid placing Victor Martinez (quadriceps) on the disabled list ? Jose Contreras bounced back from a brutal Opening Day by tossing six innings of one-run ball against the A's Tuesday ? With a 14-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14.2 innings, the long-awaited Daniel Cabrera breakout may finally be taking place ? I'm already getting ready to watch Wednesday's exciting Felix Hernandez-Daisuke Matsuzaka matchup.

NL Quick Hits: Manager Fredi Gonzalez said Sunday night that Jorge Julio remains the Marlins' closer, but Henry Owens saved a two-run lead against the Brewers Monday ? Rafael Furcal (ankle) is scheduled to rejoin the Dodgers Friday after a brief minor-league rehab assignment at Single-A ? Following seven scoreless innings Monday night, the Padres are expected to announce that [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] has agreed to a contract extension that could keep him in San Diego through 2011 ? Kevin Kouzmanoff will likely sit out Tuesday's game after being hit on the left elbow by a pitch Monday night ? Jason Schmidt's hamstring injury doesn't sound overly serious and he's being called day-to-day ? With zero experience above Single-A, don't expect 21-year-old Rick Vanden Hurk to have much success stepping into the rotation for the injured Ricky Nolasco (elbow) ? Carlos Quentin (shoulder) took batting practice Monday and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment as soon as Friday.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Prospects: Butler and Humber
While going back to the standard Prospect Report format for today's column was the plan, the first week of the season produced so little noteworthy callups that dedicating a whole section to the bunch didn't seem appropriate. Instead, we'll start with a notes section on the minors in general, including the callups, and then move on to the standard player profiles.

Minor Notes

The best of the callups this week was Kory Casto, who was recalled a week ago today. The left-handed hitting Casto immediately took over in left field, with Ryan Church shifting to center and Nook Logan heading to the disabled list. Casto was a prime sleeper this spring in NL-only leagues, but he's just 4-for-23 without an extra-base hit thus far. He could lose time to Chris Snelling if he keeps performing poorly and he'll likely head back to the minors once Logan is ready to return in a week or two.

I suppose Casto wasn't the best callup of the week if you count Micah Owings, but he was just sent to the minors as a technicality and had already made the big league roster. As I touched on last week, he's a player to watch in NL-only formats but expectations should be relatively low?The Marlins called up Rick Vanden Hurk from Double-A to take Ricky Nolasco's spot on the roster, and the Hurk will start on Tuesday against the Brewers. He's not at all ready for the majors yet and isn't a strong prospect to begin with, so he's safe to ignore for now?Kevin Thompson was recalled by the Yankees on Sunday with Hideki Matsui hitting the DL. Thompson has shown flashes of a decent bat and has good speed, but he's unlikely to play much or impact fantasy leagues.

It's only a matter of time before Julian Tavarez wears out his welcome in the Red Sox rotation, and if that happens to come before Jon Lester is ready, Devern Hansack would get the call to start for the big club. The 29-year-old right-hander impressed this spring, then struck out 10 while walking one in 5 1/3 innings in his debut for Triple-A Pawtucket. Although his advanced age means he's not much of a prospect, Hansack has looked good enough since returning to professional baseball to be of strong consideration in AL-only leagues if recalled?Adam Lind doesn't want to be in the minors. He's 7-for-21 with a double and two homers thus far for Triple-A Syracuse, and it's pretty clear that he's big league ready. Unfortunately for him, the Blue Jays have one of the best OF/1B/DH combinations in baseball. Lind is worth holding onto until being promoted.

The entire Durham Bulls' rotation is off to a good start, with four names that could have fantasy relevance. Jeff Niemann gave up two runs and struck out seven in five innings of work, while Andrew Sonnanstine also looked good while yielding one run and punching out eight hitters over six innings. Mitch Talbot added six scoreless innings on Monday night, with Jason Hammel tossing five no-hit innings in his first start. Niemann is the best long-term prospect of the group, but Sonnanstine and Talbot are also quality, underrated prospects that should be solid big leaguers. It wouldn't be surprising to see two of the four in the majors by the All-Star break, and all are worth monitoring in AL-only formats.

I don't have a strong feeling one way or the other, but the decision to assign Mets' outfielder Fernando Martinez to Double-A Binghamton at the beginning of the season is one that will be under much scrutiny. The left-handed hitting center fielder didn't do much with the bat after a late season promotion to High-A St. Lucie, and he also posted only mediocre totals in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Martinez was awarded the promotion after the Mets' front office was impressed with his work ethic and ability to adjust. That's a somewhat surprising idea on first look, but it becomes even more interesting when one realizes that Martinez won't turn 19 until the season is over. He'll undoubtedly be the youngest player in Double-A, and his progress will be an intriguing study. He went 3-for-4 in his debut on Monday night.

Looking for a minor leaguer that could rise quickly through the ranks and also shoot way up prospect rankings this year? 2006 first-rounder Brett Sinkbeil is one such player. His fastball-slider combination is already fairly advanced, and further developing his changeup is all that's stopping the right-hander from becoming a top tier prospect. The Marlins are playing it aggressive with the 22 year-old, assigning him to High-A Jupiter to begin the season. He threw six scoreless innings in his debut there last week?Tim Lincecum struck out eight batters in five innings in his first start of the season for Triple-A Fresno last week. He gave up two hits, no runs, and walked three. He'll be up with the Giants before you know it, and he's worth stashing away even in one year NL-only leagues. Mixed leaguers should be following closely as the right-hander could have value starting or closing for the Giants.

Prospect Profiles

Billy Butler ? OF Royals ? Don't look now, but the Royals have a core of young hitting worthy of a contending team. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and David DeJesus are already contributing up in the majors, but the club also has depth in the high minors with Justin Huber, Chris Lubanski, and Butler. Throw in an intriguing youngster in the low minors like Jeff Bianchi and the second overall pick in this June's draft, which could be used on Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters or one of several promising high school bats, and the team seems well stocked on the offensive end. The pitching side of the equation isn't so hot, but the overall situation still promises more hope than any recent Royals' roster.

Outside of Gordon, Butler figures to be the best pro of the group. The 14th overall selection in the 2004 draft out of a Jacksonville, Florida high school, Butler was seen as having both a polished and potent bat, but lacking any speed or defensive position. The right-hander signed quickly in 2004, and then destroyed opposing pitchers with a .373/.488/.596 line in 260 at-bats for Idaho Falls of the Rookie-level Pioneer League. Butler also showed excellent plate discipline, posting a 63/57 K/BB ratio en route to winning the team's Minor League Player of the Year award.

Given his performance at Idaho Falls the year before, the Royals had no choice but to challenge Butler and have him skip low Single-A. He debuted at High-A High Desert of the California League, and promptly continued displaying advanced skills at the plate. He hit .348 with 30 doubles and 25 homers in just 379 at-bats, good for a not so modest .636 slugging percentage. His K/BB ratio regressed to 80/42, but it was still a positive given he was 19 and performing so well. A late season promotion to Double-A Wichita also went well, with Butler continuing to show the ability to hit for average and power. The only negative in his 2005 campaign was that Butler, a third basemen his whole baseball life until now, was switched to the outfield. It was an expected move given his defensive limitations, however, so it dropped his prospect stock very little.

The Royals wanted to give Butler a consolidation year to allow him to work on his defense, so he began 2006 at Double-A Wichita again and stayed there all season. His .331/.388/.499 line was more than adequate given he was one of the youngest players in the league, and he also managed to cut down on his strikeouts while taking home the Texas League batting crown. Butler's work on the defensive end paid off as he did show improvements in the outfield, and his strong arm leads some to believe he could stick in right field.

Given a chance to impress the club this spring, Butler hit .419 with two homers and five doubles in 31 at-bats, causing manager Buddy Bell to offer a glowing endorsement despite the club's decision to send Butler to Triple-A Omaha. However, the right-hander is 5-for-19 with two homers in the early going for Omaha, and his stay there could be a short one. Although fellow top prospect Justin Huber is older and has more experience, the club clearly doesn't value his contributions highly and Butler would likely be called up first should an opening arise. With a veteran mediocrity in Emil Brown and the injury prone Mike Sweeney the players blocking Butler, he could be called up as early as May. Even is his promotion is delayed, he'll be in the majors for good at the start of 2008.

It's likely that Butler will end up at DH eventually, but the club should see if he can become an average defensive outfielder first. Both the Royals and fantasy leaguers won't care all that much either way, as Butler's huge 6'1", 240-pound frame and balanced approach at the plate mean he should develop into an All-Star offensively. Since he's already adept at pitch recognition and going the other way, there's nothing stopping Butler from being an immediate asset in the majors. Butler also won't turn 21 for another week, so he's one of baseball's 10 best prospects.

Philip Humber ? RHP Mets ? Part of the trio of dominant right-handers that helped Rice to a national title in 2003, Humber was selected third overall, ahead of teammates Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend, in the 2004 draft. Humber had shown ace potential with a low-90s fastball and plus curve in college, and that he was 6'4" and 210 pounds gave scouts the big frame that they so often seek. The right-hander also had a reputation for being poised on the mound and exhibited above average command, so there was every reason to expect a smooth transition to professional baseball.

Humber signed too late to play in 2004, and was immediately assigned to High-A St. Lucie to begin 2005. He posted strong peripherals with a 65/18 K/BB ratio, but he also gave up 74 hits, including seven homers, in just 70 1/3 innings of work. The end result was a disappointing 4.99 ERA. Still, that Humber was showing good command and strikeout potential were positives, and it figured that he'd miss more bats as time went on. The Mets believed in him enough to promote him to Double-A Binghamton that summer, but Humber felt elbow pain after his first start there and ended up needing Tommy John surgery.

Despite undergoing the surgery less than a year prior, Humber returned to the mound in June of 2006. He made one start for the Gulf Coast Mets, and then spent the next few months between St. Lucie and Binghamton. Even more impressive than the quick recovery timeframe was that Humber showed no ill effects from the surgery upon returning. His fastball still reached the low 90s, and his curveball still had good bite and plus potential. The return of his arsenal, in addition to further progress with his changeup, allowed Humber to post a 2.82 ERA and a 79/20 K/BB ratio in 76 1/3 innings. The right-hander made a few relief appearances with the big club in September, and was then sent to the Arizona Fall League. He didn't last long in the AFL, getting shut down after one start with shoulder soreness. The Mets insist it wasn't an issue, but it's still a worrisome occurrence.

Humber was assigned to Triple-A New Orleans to start the season, throwing five innings of one-run ball in his debut. The right-hander seems likely to remain there for at least a few months, but the Mets should come calling at some point during the year. With two 40-year-olds at the top of the rotation and three potentially high variance pitchers in John Maine, Oliver Perez, and Mike Pelfrey at the back of the rotation, it wouldn't be surprising if the Mets had a very different look to their rotation come late July. With Humber's talents and the Mets willing to push him aggressively, it'd be a surprise if Humber wasn't first in line come June. Even with significant injury concerns going forward, Humber still ranks as one of the game's top 50 prospects.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Dice-K vs. King Felix
There's a pretty good chance that I'm setting myself up for a massive letdown, but I'm ridiculously excited about tonight's Daisuke Matsuzaka-Felix Hernandez matchup in Boston. Not only are two of the best, most intriguing young pitchers in all of baseball squaring off after combining to start the season 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 22 strikeouts in two opening-week appearances, there are a pair of interesting subplots that add to the drama.

First, Matsuzaka will be making his Fenway Park debut. Beating the Royals in Kansas City last week took away some of the novelty, but his impressive 10-strikeout debut also helped to build up the hype. Beyond that, Ichiro Suzuki will be the first batter Matsuzaka faces and he'll also be going up against Kenji Johjima, which means the overflowing throng of Japanese media that would have been in attendance anyway will probably be quadrupled.

The Daisuke-versus-Ichiro storyline has been plastered so heavily all over the Boston-area newspapers this week that I can quote Suzuki's career numbers against Matsuzaka in Japan without even looking. Seriously, a mid-20s Ichiro was 8-for-34 against a teenage Matsuzaka, which is the type of "knowledge" that's too dorky and specific to even be on a Trivial Pursuit card. I can only imagine what the coverage has been like in Japan.

Plus, coming off an overpowering Opening Day outing that was followed by his 21st birthday, King Felix is a storyline all by himself. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more exciting matchup in baseball history featuring two pitchers with a combined 18 career major-league wins. All of which is why the odds are that I'll end up being extremely disappointed by the whole thing, although to be fair anything short of dueling no-hitters would have me thinking it could have been better.

While I get the popcorn ready and start warming up the 60-inch screen, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Zack Greinke, who was impressive while losing to Matsuzaka and the Red Sox last week, turned in a second straight strong start Tuesday. Greinke held the Blue Jays to one run over six innings, striking out five while walking none to give him a 12-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 innings thus far. Greinke's fantasy stock plummeted when he missed most of last season while dealing with personal problems, but it's important to remember that he's still just 23 years old.

He's already tossed nearly 350 big-league innings, with a 17-loss season and off-field issues on his resume, but if any other 23-year-old was pitching like he has so far this season it would be a big story. I still have doubts about Greinke developing into a No. 1 starter, but that goes all the way back to his days as a top prospect. More importantly, he appears to be back on the fast track to fantasy relevance?at least on the field?and should be valued accordingly in all formats.

* One day after saying Eric Gagne would be eased back into the bullpen mix in a non-closer role, manager Ron Washington changed his mind Tuesday. Washington said that Gagne will take over ninth-inning duties immediately once he returns from the disabled list, which is expected to happen Friday. That pronouncement is good news for Gagne owners who're hoping their draft-day risk can still pay off, but it effectively takes the air out of Akinori Otsuka's fantasy stock.

* Jered Weaver may not be quite as close to returning to the Angels' starting rotation as initially thought. Weaver is scheduled to start Wednesday at Single-A and is expected to throw around 90 pitches, but the Los Angeles Times reports that his planned return Monday against the Red Sox "is looking a little iffy." Manager Mike Scioscia said that Weaver remains "penciled in" against Boston, but added that "there's a chance he could need one more rehab start."

AL Quick Hits: Shea Hillenbrand returned to the lineup Tuesday, but didn't move well and may have aggravated his groin injury ? Manager Eric Wedge said Tuesday that the Indians have no plans to place Victor Martinez (quad) on the disabled list ? Making the second of four scheduled minor-league rehab starts, Bartolo Colon (shoulder) gave up two runs in 5.2 innings at Single-A ? Jon Lester, also making the second of four scheduled starts at Single-A, tossed four scoreless innings Tuesday ? Alex Rodriguez went deep Tuesday for the fourth straight game, giving him six homers and 16 RBIs through seven games ? Dan Johnson (hip) could begin playing in extended spring training within two weeks and is on track for an early May return ? Manager Mike Scioscia loves to run, but the Angels have already seen two losses end on an Erick Aybar steal attempt ? Manager Buddy Bell said Tuesday that the "best-case scenario" for Octavio Dotel's (oblique) return is now April 20, and Joakim Soria could be overtaking David Riske as his replacement after an impressive two-inning save.

NL Quick Hits: One day after Henry Owens notched his first save subbing for him, Jorge Julio returned as closer and blew his second save ? Matt Kemp will miss about two weeks after his shoulder injury was diagnosed as a separation, meaning Andre Ethier will get regular at-bats for a while ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL] (groin) may not return until Friday, with Alberto Callaspo continuing to replace him in the Diamondbacks' outfield ? Meanwhile, Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is expected to play in an extended spring training game Wednesday and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment Friday ? Hanley Ramirez (hamstring) did not make his scheduled return to the lineup Tuesday and may instead be out until Friday ? Prince Fielder was 3-for-3 with two walks before Tuesday's Brewers-Marlins game was suspended in the 10th inning because of rain ? Solid NL-only sleeper Chris Sampson made his first start Tuesday and tossed five scoreless innings against the Cubs ? Doing his best Brad Lidge impression, new closer Dan Wheeler gave up two runs on four hits Tuesday, but it was a non-save situation.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Fantasy Goals


For those of you expecting the results of the team-name contest, I'll be announcing those next week to give readers a chance to interact on our new forum on the topic. Check it out...and for those of you who haven't sent me your team name submissions, get them in already!
This week, I'll discuss fantasy goals for this season and provide my thoughts on Curtis Granderson, Geoff Jenkins, B.J. Upton, Aaron Hill, Tim Hudson, Kip Wells, and others.
[SIZE=+1]Topic of the Week: Fantasy Goals[/SIZE]
People love to set personal goals. Quit Krispy Kremes cold turkey. Find a mate who cooks well and doesn't nag. Watch less ultimate fighting and more C-SPAN. Surf less porn at work. Etcetera, etcetera. Maybe we in fantasyland should be more goal oriented. If we were, what might some of our aspirations be? I'd like to get your thoughts on this (jgangi@rotoworld.com). In the meantime, here are some possibilities that come to mind:

• Don't be seduced by Kerry Wood or Mark Prior?again!
• Post your best ever fantasy-research-hours-to-times-caught-surfing-by-your-boss ratio.
• Stay married.
• Identify measures to minimize ASBWS (All-Star-Break Withdrawal Syndrome)
• Make at least one trade that results in your trade partner ultimately dumping the player he got from you.
• Post a message so nasty to your league board that the target owner refuses to speak with you for at least a month thereafter.
• Raise your overall performance in your Yahoo Fantasy Sports Profile five points closer to All Star.
• Organize a successful mutiny against your out-of-control commissioner.

[SIZE=+1]Players of Note[/SIZE]
Alfonso Soriano ? Every year, some top-tier players start off a bit slow, and every year a good percentage of fantasy owners hit the panic button. So far this year, Soriano is the biggest disappointment, hitting just .200 with no homers or RBI in 35 at bats. Just remember: We're talking about eight games here. An eight-game slump in the middle of July goes practically unnoticed. Keep your finger off that button!
Albert Pujols ? See above.
Manny Ramirez ? Like Pujols and Soriano, Ramirez is a star who's underperformed early on. However, unlike Pujols and Soriano, Manny provides some cause for worry in that he's almost 35 years old, he's been in the league for 15 years, and he of course has been known to miss time with questionable afflictions. Still, it's way too early to jump ship on Manny given his past production and the potent lineup in which he bats.
Jermaine Dye ? So far Dye is bringing a smile to the faces of those who predicted that he'd be a bust this season, hitting just .100 with one RBI and no runs. Personally, I believe in the 11-year veteran given his consistently solid production over the last eight years. He probably won't match his career-best numbers from last year (44 HR, 120 RBI), but he could certainly hit .275 with 30 or so homers and 90 RBI.
Curtis Granderson ? So far this preseason sleeper has come through big for owners who rolled the dice on him. To date, he's batting .333 with two long balls and a steal. But will he continue to be productive? His history says he should maintain at least some value. Over four years in the minors, he hit .300 and averaged about 14 HR and 15 SB per 450 AB. And he should provide plenty of runs hitting atop the Tigers' order.
Geoff Jenkins ? Usually an underrated fantasy producer, the 32-year-old Jenkins disappointed last year, managing just 17 HR and 70 RBI. Undoubtedly, this performance landed him in a platoon with [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=3875"]Corey Hart[/URL] to start this season. However, with three bombs already to go along with a .400 AVG, the Brett Favre look-alike could soon be back in a full-time role, in which case he'd provide plenty of value. Keep in mind that, from 2003 to 2005, Jenkins averaged more than 26 HR and 90 RBI a season.
B.J. Upton ? The much hyped Upton is finally getting some consistent time in Tampa Bay, and thus far he's making the most of it, hitting .409 with a homer and a steal in 22 AB. He's definitely worth grabbing for his enormous ability as a base stealer. Last season, he swiped 46 bags in just 395 AB for Triple-A Durham. However, you'll want to monitor his playing time closely, being that he could lose at bats to any number of guys should his batting average dip anywhere near his major-league average of .251. But that may never happen, if he hits like he did in the minors, where he boasted a .296 AVG over four years.
Aaron Hill ? Hitting .333 with a homer, Hill may be attracting the attention of owners in need of middle-infield help. Just remember that, while Hill has proven he can hit for average, he's shown little power or speed at any level of professional baseball. Not to mention he bats seventh.
Orlando Hudson ? Surprisingly, Hudson has been one of the hottest hitters out of the gates, hitting .395 with two round trippers and 11 runs. After career highs across the board last year (.287 AVG, 15 HR, nine steals), there's reason to believe the 29-year-old infielder is steadily improving. Still, you can't expect him to maintain his current pace.
Josh Beckett ? With two wins, 13 K, a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in 12 IP, Beckett is making teammate Curt Schilling's predictions that Beckett would bounce back this year look spot on. Certainly, we know the second overall pick from 1999 has the ability to dominate, as he's shown in flashes before (like when he helped the Marlins to a World Series victory). Perhaps this is the year it all comes together for the 27-year-old.
Tim Hudson ? Disregarded in many fantasy leagues thanks to an abysmal 2006 in which he posted a 4.86 ERA, Hudson has come roaring back with just one earned run through his first 14 innings this year. Perhaps more impressive are his 12 strikeouts. Coupled with an impressive spring, this early season performance seems to indicate that Hudson's nagging oblique injuries are finally a thing of the past. Look for him to resume his pre-2006 form.
Kip Wells ? One of the top starters thus far, Wells has whiffed 14 batters in 13 IP while allowing just six hits and two earned runs. On the tails of a good spring, this could possibly indicate that Wells is ready to return to his form from 2002 and 2003, when he posted ERAs in the mid threes. Certainly, he's worth picking up in case. Pitching for the Cards could lead to a career high in wins. Dan Wheeler ? Now taking over for Brad Lidge as Houston's closer, Wheeler should be grabbed immediately in all leagues. Don't let his 9.00 ERA deter you; the guy can pitch, as he's shown by posting ERAs under 2.52 in each of the last two seasons. In 2005, in fact, he impressed with a 0.98 WHIP. And he'll get you nearly a strikeout an inning. Perhaps Manager Phil Garner was sincere when he said he believes that Lidge will "get back," but keep in mind that the once elite closer's struggles date back to last year, when he greatly disappointed with a 5.28 ERA. Perhaps Wheeler won't keep the job long, and perhaps he might not get things turned around right away, but if you have anyone worth dumping for a potentially dominant closer?and I'm guessing you do?get to your wire pronto!

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Daisuke Who?
To say that Felix Hernandez stole the show Wednesday night in Boston would be a tremendous understatement, because he was the show. With the baseball world focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway Park debut, King Felix made the powerful Red Sox lineup look silly, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before J.D. Drew led off with a single up the middle that was the only hit Hernandez surrendered in a complete-game shutout. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks

Making his last start as a 20-year-old on Opening Day, Hernandez tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out 12 batters in a performance that I described in this space as "about as good as a pitcher can be." He was even better Wednesday, making his first start as a 21-year-old on eight days' rest, although with "only" six strikeouts his boxscore line didn't look quite as dominant. Instead of missing bats, Hernandez simply made the Red Sox pound everything into the ground. eog.com

He induced an incredible 17 ground-ball outs, with Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia saying afterward that Hernandez "was throwing 95-mph sinkers that looked like they were moving six feet ? it was ridiculous." Combined with the dozen ground-ball outs he got on Opening Day, Hernandez now boasts a 29-to-5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, which is a rare combination that's definitely best described as "ridiculous." The Player's Paradise

I was extremely high on Hernandez coming into the season, ranking him as the No. 3 fantasy starter in the AL behind only Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, but after watching his first two masterpieces I'm ready to move him up even higher. With Chris Carpenter on the disabled list, a strong argument can be made for Hernandez being the No. 2 fantasy starter in all of baseball, and at the very least only Santana is a clear-cut choice over him for the remainder of this year.

While the 350 credentialed media members in Boston Wednesday night consider dropping the Matsuzaka beat to follow Hernandez around from city-to-city, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Impressed with Joakim Soria's two-inning save Tuesday and underwhelmed by David Riske's performance thus far, manager Buddy Bell indicated Wednesday that he plans to make Soria the Royals' closer until Octavio Dotel returns from the disabled list. Dotel is tentatively due back on April 20, but his recovery timetable has already been pushed back twice and he'll remain an injury risk even after he returns.

That means Soria should have significant fantasy value in all formats until at least the end of the month and, if he pitches well during that time, will be worth holding onto in many leagues beyond Dotel's return. Released by the Dodgers following Tommy John surgery in 2003, Soria made a name for himself in the Mexican League last year and was signed by the Padres. The Royals snatched him up with the No. 2 pick in December's Rule 5 draft, one spot after Josh Hamilton. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football? - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice

Soria has very few minor-league innings on his resume and little in the way of an official performance track record to base long-term projections on, but he looked very good during spring training and has been the Royals' best reliever thus far. That's not saying much, of course, but Kansas City's lack of quality bullpen options certainly plays into Soria's favor and makes it likely that he'll remain a setup man even if Dotel comes back strong. www.greenbaypackers.ws www.baltimoreravens.ws www.buffalobills.ws www.miamidolphins.ws www.newyorkgiants.ws

* Meanwhile in Florida, manager Fredi Gonzalez went from giving Jorge Julio a vote of confidence Sunday to removing him from the closer job Wednesday. Despite trading Yusmeiro Petit to the Diamondbacks for him less than a month ago, the Marlins will demote Julio to a middle-relief role following two blown saves during the past week. That means saves are now out of the question and even decisions may be difficult to come by for a while.

Gonzalez has yet to name an official replacement as of Thursday morning, but it's pretty clear that Henry Owens will get the first crack at the job. Owens converted a save when Julio got a day off Monday and has an impressive minor-league track record, including a 1.58 ERA and 74-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings at Double-A last season. However, with Taylor Tankersley close to returning from the disabled list, Owens will need a strong start to hold onto the gig. Sports Picks

AL Quick Hits: Mike Mussina will likely miss his next start and could be bound for the disabled list after leaving Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury ? Johan Santana vehemently denied a report that he's ended contract negotiations with the Twins and plans to become a free agent following next season ? Jaret Wright is being called day-to-day after leaving his start Tuesday with right shoulder tightness ? If Wright does miss time, Hayden Penn won't be able to replace him in the rotation after being scratched from his Triple-A start Wednesday with forearm soreness ? Al Reyes earned his second save of the season with a perfect ninth inning against the Rangers Wednesday ? Jason Bartlett's streak of 106 straight games started was snapped Wednesday, with recent call-up Alexi Casilla getting the nod in his place ? Jonny Gomes was out of the starting lineup Wednesday for the seventh time in eight games ? Arthur Rhodes is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, which could mean the end of the 37-year-old's career.

NL Quick Hits: Asked Wednesday about his scheduled April 19 return date, Randy Johnson (back) said, "Don't put that in stone" ? When Rafael Furcal (ankle) returns from the disabled list Friday, manager Grady Little said he plans to bat him leadoff and hit Juan Pierre second ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (biceps) tossed five innings in a simulated game Wednesday and is on track to start for the Phillies Sunday ? Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment and expects to return to the Diamondbacks early next week ? Manager Jerry Narron yanked Edwin Encarnacion from Wednesday's game because he didn't run out a first-inning pop up ? After a strong start to the season, Salomon Torres followed up a blown save Tuesday with a loss Wednesday, all while Matt Capps has 6.1 scoreless innings ? Scott Rolen (back) hopes to return Friday after sitting out two straight games ? If the Astros look to deal Brad Lidge, the Devil Rays are rumored to be interested.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Daisuke Who?
To say that Felix Hernandez stole the show Wednesday night in Boston would be a tremendous understatement, because he was the show. With the baseball world focused on Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway Park debut, King Felix made the powerful Red Sox lineup look silly, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning before J.D. Drew led off with a single up the middle that was the only hit Hernandez surrendered in a complete-game shutout. Sports Betting at Eye On Gambling - Discuss Online Sportsbooks; Handicapping; and Free Picks

Making his last start as a 20-year-old on Opening Day, Hernandez tossed seven scoreless innings, striking out 12 batters in a performance that I described in this space as "about as good as a pitcher can be." He was even better Wednesday, making his first start as a 21-year-old on eight days' rest, although with "only" six strikeouts his boxscore line didn't look quite as dominant. Instead of missing bats, Hernandez simply made the Red Sox pound everything into the ground. eog.com

He induced an incredible 17 ground-ball outs, with Boston second baseman Dustin Pedroia saying afterward that Hernandez "was throwing 95-mph sinkers that looked like they were moving six feet ? it was ridiculous." Combined with the dozen ground-ball outs he got on Opening Day, Hernandez now boasts a 29-to-5 ground ball-to-fly ball ratio and 18-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts, which is a rare combination that's definitely best described as "ridiculous."

I was extremely high on Hernandez coming into the season, ranking him as the No. 3 fantasy starter in the AL behind only Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, but after watching his first two masterpieces I'm ready to move him up even higher. With Chris Carpenter on the disabled list, a strong argument can be made for Hernandez being the No. 2 fantasy starter in all of baseball, and at the very least only Santana is a clear-cut choice over him for the remainder of this year. The Player's Paradise

While the 350 credentialed media members in Boston Wednesday night consider dropping the Matsuzaka beat to follow Hernandez around from city-to-city, here are some other notes from around baseball ?

* Impressed with Joakim Soria's two-inning save Tuesday and underwhelmed by David Riske's performance thus far, manager Buddy Bell indicated Wednesday that he plans to make Soria the Royals' closer until Octavio Dotel returns from the disabled list. Dotel is tentatively due back on April 20, but his recovery timetable has already been pushed back twice and he'll remain an injury risk even after he returns.

That means Soria should have significant fantasy value in all formats until at least the end of the month and, if he pitches well during that time, will be worth holding onto in many leagues beyond Dotel's return. Released by the Dodgers following Tommy John surgery in 2003, Soria made a name for himself in the Mexican League last year and was signed by the Padres. The Royals snatched him up with the No. 2 pick in December's Rule 5 draft, one spot after Josh Hamilton. Fantasy Sports - Fantasy Football? - Fantasy Sports News - Fantasy Football Mock Draft - Fantasy Basketball - Fantasy Football Advice

Soria has very few minor-league innings on his resume and little in the way of an official performance track record to base long-term projections on, but he looked very good during spring training and has been the Royals' best reliever thus far. That's not saying much, of course, but Kansas City's lack of quality bullpen options certainly plays into Soria's favor and makes it likely that he'll remain a setup man even if Dotel comes back strong.

* Meanwhile in Florida, manager Fredi Gonzalez went from giving Jorge Julio a vote of confidence Sunday to removing him from the closer job Wednesday. Despite trading Yusmeiro Petit to the Diamondbacks for him less than a month ago, the Marlins will demote Julio to a middle-relief role following two blown saves during the past week. That means saves are now out of the question and even decisions may be difficult to come by for a while.

Gonzalez has yet to name an official replacement as of Thursday morning, but it's pretty clear that Henry Owens will get the first crack at the job. Owens converted a save when Julio got a day off Monday and has an impressive minor-league track record, including a 1.58 ERA and 74-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 40 innings at Double-A last season. However, with Taylor Tankersley close to returning from the disabled list, Owens will need a strong start to hold onto the gig. www.sportspickwinners.com

AL Quick Hits: Mike Mussina will likely miss his next start and could be bound for the disabled list after leaving Wednesday's game with a hamstring injury ? Johan Santana vehemently denied a report that he's ended contract negotiations with the Twins and plans to become a free agent following next season ? Jaret Wright is being called day-to-day after leaving his start Tuesday with right shoulder tightness ? If Wright does miss time, Hayden Penn won't be able to replace him in the rotation after being scratched from his Triple-A start Wednesday with forearm soreness ? Al Reyes earned his second save of the season with a perfect ninth inning against the Rangers Wednesday ? Jason Bartlett's streak of 106 straight games started was snapped Wednesday, with recent call-up Alexi Casilla getting the nod in his place ? Jonny Gomes was out of the starting lineup Wednesday for the seventh time in eight games ? Arthur Rhodes is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery, which could mean the end of the 37-year-old's career.
www.tampabaybuccaneers.ws
NL Quick Hits: Asked Wednesday about his scheduled April 19 return date, Randy Johnson (back) said, "Don't put that in stone" ? When Rafael Furcal (ankle) returns from the disabled list Friday, manager Grady Little said he plans to bat him leadoff and hit Juan Pierre second ? [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL] (biceps) tossed five innings in a simulated game Wednesday and is on track to start for the Phillies Sunday ? Carlos Quentin (shoulder) is set to begin a minor-league rehab assignment and expects to return to the Diamondbacks early next week ? Manager Jerry Narron yanked Edwin Encarnacion from Wednesday's game because he didn't run out a first-inning pop up ? After a strong start to the season, Salomon Torres followed up a blown save Tuesday with a loss Wednesday, all while Matt Capps has 6.1 scoreless innings ? Scott Rolen (back) hopes to return Friday after sitting out two straight games ? If the Astros look to deal Brad Lidge, the Devil Rays are rumored to be interested.

 

[Hache Man]

Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007

Bullpen Report Week 2
It's early in the season, but several teams have already had big shakeups in their bullpens. The pre-season closers for the Astros, Marlins, and Royals are all currently out of jobs for a variety of reasons. Several other clubs have seen their shaky closers establish themselves as more reliable options, making these stoppers less risky investments. Constant reevaluation has become the norm in the world of the always-scrutinized closers, and in this week's column we'll analyze who has seen the biggest change in value.

All closers are rated in one of the following categories: Locked In, Secure, Shaky, In Danger, Filling-in, or DL.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Closer: Jose Valverde (Secure)

Key setup men: Brandon Lyon, Brandon Medders, Tony Pena

Valverde entered the year as one of the more promising closers around, but inconsistency and injuries had held him down before. Neither has been a problem in the early going, as Valverde has converted 4-of-5 saves in the early going. The only runs the right-hander has given up were in his blown save, and only one of those was earned. Valverde easily has top 20 closer potential, and his strong start gives his value a boost. I wouldn't recommend selling-high on this one, at least for now.

Atlanta Braves

Closer: Bob Wickman (Secure)

Key setup men: Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Oscar Villareal

The 38-year-old Wickman has been as reliable as ever thus far, recording a win and three saves in four outings without allowing a run to score. He remains a quality option, albeit with more risk than some of the other 'secure' listings in this space.

Baltimore Orioles

Closer: Chris Ray (Secure)

Key setup men: Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker

In what will undoubtedly be one of the year's most memorable moments, Ray served up a walk-off grand slam to Alex Rodriguez this past week. The right-hander was cruising the first two outs of that save, but came unraveled after almost hitting Derek Jeter and later walking the star shortstop. Things went down hill from there, with Ray hitting Bobby Abreu and then giving up the grand slam. On the plus side, Ray came back the very next day and recorded a perfect save against the Yankees. The lone poor outing shouldn't affect his value at all.

Boston Red Sox

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon (Locked In)

Key setup men: Joel Pineiro, Mike Timlin, Hideki Okajima

Although he's only pitched twice thus far, Papelbon has already reminded his owners just how good he is. In his second outing of the season, Papelbon entered a one-run game with the tying run at third and the go-ahead run on first with one out in the eighth inning. The 26-year-old struck out Michael Young and then got Mark Teixeira to pop out to end the rally. He followed that up with a perfect ninth, recording his second save of the season.

Chicago Cubs

Closer: Ryan Dempster (Secure)

Key setup men: Bob Howry, Kerry Wood (DL), Scott Eyre
It's been awhile since Dempster has looked this good. After struggling through most of the second half last year, the Cubs' closer has bounced back to an impressive start in 2007. Dempster has recorded two saves while striking out five and not allowing a hit in three innings thus far. He remains likely to be inconsistent over the course of a season and its still quite possible he'll lose the job at some point, but he's fine to use for now.

Chicago White Sox

Closer: Bobby Jenks (Secure)

Key setup men: Mike MacDougal, Matt Thornton, Nick Masset

Manager Ozzie Guillen's comments about potentially using Thornton to close with Jenks not throwing hard enough turned out to be bogus, and it's likely that Guillen was just trying to motivate his hefty closer. Jenks blew a one-run lead and took a loss on Monday, but he hasn't allowed a run in any of his other five appearances thus far. He remains a risky option over the long haul, but there's plenty of short-term job security here.

Cincinnati Reds

Closer: David Weathers (Shaky), Mike Stanton (Shaky)

Key setup men: Todd Coffey, Jon Coutlangus

The Reds have generated two save opportunities thus far, with both of them going to Weathers. He converted both saves by throwing scoreless innings of work. Weathers then took a loss after giving up a run in a tie game in the 11th inning against the Diamondbacks, but this was after he had thrown a scoreless 10th inning. He remains the favorite for saves, with Stanton figuring to vulture a fair number of the opportunities. It remains to be seen if Coutlangus would get any opportunities, as the club had alluded to previously.

Cleveland Indians

Closer: Joe Borowski (Secure)

Key setup men: Roberto Hernandez, Rafael Betancourt, Fernando Cabrera

After giving up two runs on Opening Day, Borowski has gone 2-for-2 in save opportunities. However, neither appearance has been all that pretty. In the first, he walked two batters and barely escaped without allowing any runs. In the second, he gave up a run and was later saved by Erick Aybar being caught stealing to end the game. It'll take more than a few sub par outings for Borowski to lose the job, so he remains secure for now.

Colorado Rockies

Closer: Brian Fuentes (Secure)

Key setup men: LaTroy Hawkins, Manny Corpas, Ramon Ramirez

Another veteran off to a slow start, Fuentes has struggled in each of his last two outings. He gave up two runs in the first, but managed to pick up a save anyway. In the second outing, Fuentes gave up one run in a non-save situation. Neither should affect his value much.

Detroit Tigers

Closer: Todd Jones (Secure)

Key setup men: Joel Zumaya, Fernando Rodney, Wilfredo Ledezma

No controversy to see here. Jones has thrown five scoreless innings thus far, notching saves in all four of his opportunities. Zumaya will have to wait his chance.

Florida Marlins

Closer: Henry Owens (Shaky), Jorge Julio (Shaky)

Key setup men: Taylor Tankersley (DL), Matt Lindstrom, Kevin Gregg

The Marlins haven't announced a change in the closer's role, but it's all but assumed that Julio is out of the job for now. Manager Fredi Gonzalez refused to commit to the veteran when asked about the situation, and Owens is the favorite to replace Julio after already being used in close and late situations this season. Julio could be given another chance to redeem himself and might get the job back eventually, so he can't be dropped yet.

In the meantime, Owens is worth picking up in all formats until this situation is a bit clearer. Given that Owens, Julio, and even Tankersley are candidates to close over the rest of the season, selling high on Owens might be a good idea after he notches a few saves. If not, utilizing this bullpen will require constant monitoring and associated transactions.

Houston Astros

Closer: Dan Wheeler (Secure)

Key setup men: Chad Qualls, Brad Lidge, Trevor Miller

Lidge was listed as being in danger when this report came out last week, and he was predictably booted from save situations shortly thereafter. Although he still has the stuff to dominate, Lidge has a lot to prove before he's able to reassume ninth inning duties. It's possible he'll return to the role later in the year, but if Wheeler is performing as well as he has in a setup role the past few seasons, there will be no reason to make the change.

Wheeler isn't off to the best start himself, squandering an eighth inning lead last week and then blowing his first second save opportunity after being anointed closer. Neither is of much long-term concern, and Wheeler has top 10 closer potential. If the Wheeler owner in your league isn't comfortable valuing the right-hander as a legitimate closer, take advantage and make a deal.

Kansas City Royals

Closer: Octavio Dotel (DL), David Riske (Filling-in)

Key setup men: Joel Peralta, Joakim Soria

Riske has received two save opportunities while filling in for Dotel, successfully converting the first and then blowing the second by allowing a three-run homer to Tiger catcher Ivan Rodriguez. Riske took the loss in that second outing. He'll act as closer until Dotel returns, although that date is somewhat up in the air now with Dotel's oblique still bothering him.

Los Angeles Angels

Closer: Francisco Rodriguez (Locked In)

Key setup men: Scot Shields, Justin Speier, Darren Oliver

It turned out that the substance on K-Rod's hat last week was resin, and the right-hander was supposedly cleared of any wrong-doing. It's not something that should affect his value, and Rodriguez has put it behind himself by successfully closing all four opportunities he's been given.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Closer: Takashi Saito (Secure)

Key setup men: Jonathan Broxton, Chad Billingsley, Rudy Seanez

Saito was a candidate to regress in 2007 after a superb 2006 campaign, but nobody has told him that. He's given up one run in 4 2/3 innings while striking out five and recording four saves. The longer he goes without big leaguers figuring out his fastball-slider combination the more confidence you can have in his future projections.

Milwaukee Brewers

Closer: Francisco Cordero (Secure)

Key setup men: Derrick Turnbow, Matt Wise, Carlos Villanueva

It was a slow start to the season for Cordero, who pitched only twice until Wednesday night. Then on Wednesday, Cordero closed out the remainder of the previous day's game in the early evening and then saved the second Brewers-Marlins contest of the day later that night.

Minnesota Twins

Closer: Joe Nathan (Locked In)

Key setup men: Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek

Nathan has been perfect thus far, throwing four scoreless innings and recording three saves. There are few surer bets in baseball for consistent excellence.

New York Mets

Closer: Billy Wagner (Locked In)

Key setup men: Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano, Joe Smith, Ambiorix Burgos

A poor finish to the spring hasn't hurt Wagner, as he's thrown three scoreless innings and picked up a save thus far. Rookie Joe Smith is impressing in the early going, having thrown five scoreless through Wednesday's action. He could end the year second or third in line.

New York Yankees

Closer: Mariano Rivera (Locked In)

Key setup men: Kyle Farnsworth, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino

Do we even need to have a Yankees' section when it comes to closers? There's nobody more predictably dominant than Rivera, and the job is his even if he were to blow ten straight saves. The future Hall of Famer hasn't recorded a save yet, but he does have a vulture win in three scoreless innings.

Oakland Athletics

Closer: Huston Street (Locked In)

Key setup men: Justin Duchscherer, Kiko Calero, Alan Embree

The season started well enough for Street, picking up two saves and a win entering Wednesday night. However, last night Street entered a tie game in the top of the ninth and promptly surrendered three runs on three walks and a pair of hits. It's nothing to be concerned with.

Philadelphia Phillies

Closer: Tom Gordon (Locked In)

Key setup men: Ryan Madson, Geoff Geary, Jon Lieber

Gordon has only pitched once since the last column, protecting a three-run lead against the Mets on Wednesday night to pick up his first save of the season. Although he blew a save in his second appearance of the year, he's looked fine thus far.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Closer: Salomon Torres (Secure)

Key setup men: Matt Capps, Damaso Marte, Jonah Bayliss,

It was a fast and productive start for Torres, who saved four games in four outings during the season's first week. However, the tides have turned quickly on Torres, who blew a two-run lead against the Cardinals on Tuesday and then suffered a loss after allowing one run to break a tie game on Wednesday. The poor recent outings won't change Torres' secure hold of the job.

San Diego Padres

Closer: Trevor Hoffman (Locked In)

Key setup men: Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell

Four appearances, no runs, two saves, and one win. That sounds about right for the all-time save leader.

San Francisco Giants

Closer: Armando Benitez (Secure)

Key setup men: Kevin Correia, Steve Kline, Jonathan Sanchez

Benitez gave up a two-run homer to Adrian Gonzalez on Tuesday, but the Giants had a three-run lead at the time and he was able to preserve the win despite the long ball. Benitez has walked two and given up four hits in 2 1/3 innings of work to date. It'd take quite a string of poor outings to get him removed from the closer's role given the rest of the club's options.

Seattle Mariners

Closer: J.J. Putz (Locked In)

Key setup men: Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, Brandon Morrow

Poor weather conditions have left the Mariners with just five games played thus far. Putz has pitched in two of those games, although neither was a save situation.

St. Louis Cardinals

Closer: Jason Isringhausen (Locked In)

Key setup men: Brad Thompson, Tyler Johnson, Russ Springer

There was some thought in the off-season that Isringhausen wouldn't be ready for Opening Day, but those fears have been put to rest through two weeks. The veteran right-hander has made four appearances in the early going, giving up one run and picking up three saves in the process.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Closer: Al Reyes (Secure)

Key setup men: Brian Stokes, Ruddy Lugo, Juan Salas

I'm changing Reyes to secure after a strong first two weeks, with the understanding that he could drop to shaky with a poor handful of outings. Reyes gets the promotion because he's looked strong in his first three appearances, collecting two saves and allowing just one baserunner. The right-hander has earned the right to be given a little slack given his strong performances to date and impressive track record. The rest of the bullpen remains worth monitoring closely, especially Juan Salas and Brian Stokes, but it's Reyes' job to lose now.

Texas Rangers

Closer: Eric Gagne (DL), Akinori Otsuka (Filling-in)

Key setup men: Joaquin Benoit, C.J. Wilson

The Rangers haven't needed him much yet, but Otsuka has done well by not allowing a run in any of this three appearances. However, Gagne is set to come off the disabled list on Friday, and manager Ron Washington has already stated that he'll be given closing duties right away. Those in deep leagues will want to hold on to Otsuka anyway, given that Gagne is no sure thing in terms of health or production.

Toronto Blue Jays

Closer: B.J. Ryan (Locked In)

Key setup men: Jason Frasor, Jeremy Accardo, Shaun Marcum

Ryan is 3-for-4 in save opportunities, with the lone blown save coming when Ryan gave up three runs on five hits against the Devil Rays last week. He's allowed just one baserunner outside of that appearance and remains a top 5 closer.

Washington Nationals

Closer: Chad Cordero (Locked In)

Key setup men: Jon Rauch, Ryan Wagner, Jesus Colome

The Nationals are off to a woeful 1-8 start, and their only win required a three-run comeback in the bottom of the ninth against the struggling Jorge Julio. Intelligent fans can't say they didn't see this coming, and Cordero is going to have problems finding games to save as a result. If you own Cordero, the best-case scenario is that he pitches well anyway and is dealt to a better team in June or July.