Hache Man
"Seven Days Without Gambling Makes One Weak"
Re: Fantasy Baseball News 2007
NL Pitching Preview
I'll be moving on to a true notes format next week. First, here's a look at the NL's pitching depth charts and suggestions on which arms to target and which to avoid. Editor's Note:
Don't forget that more in-depth analysis, along with Rankings, Dollar Values, Cheat Sheets, Sleepers, Busts and over 1000 Players Profiled are found in our Online Draft Guide. It's updated in real-time as we report the news. Click here to check it out.
Also thousands of other fantasy baseball fanatics are talking about how to prepare for their fantasy baseball drafts in the Rotoworld forums.
National League notes
Arizona
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Livan Hernandez
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings
6. Enrique Gonzalez
7. Dana Eveland
8. Dustin Nippert
9. Edgar Gonzalez
1. Jose Valverde
2. Tony Pena
3. Jorge Julio
4. Brandon Medders
5. Micah Owings
6. Brandon Lyon
7. Juan Cruz
The Big Unit has a far better chance of reemerging as a top-20 fantasy starter now that he's back in the NL. He's still not likely to excel in ERA, but his WHIP and strikeout rate will be strong and he'll get better run support than he did in 2004, when the Arizona offense cost him a Cy Young Award. ? Hernandez and Davis are strictly $1 starters in my book. Chase Field will punish each.
I don't have any big favorites from the fifth-starter competition. Cruz would have been the biggest sleeper in the bunch, but he wasn't given a shot to win the job. Edgar Gonzalez is helped by being out of options, but the Diamondbacks could just keep him initially and then try to send him through waivers when Johnson returns in mid-April. I think Eveland has the best chance of any of them of amassing a little value in NL-only leagues.
Valverde will have the closer's role all to himself to begin the year, but despite his talent, he doesn't have the same kind of margin for error that most do. The Diamondbacks would love to see Pena step up and become the top setup man and No. 1 alternative to Valverde. Julio would also be in the mix if he isn't traded prior to Opening Day.
Atlanta
1. John Smoltz
2. Tim Hudson
3. Chuck James
4. Mike Hampton
5. Mark Redman
6. Lance Cormier
7. Kyle Davies
8. Matt Harrison
1. Bob Wickman
2. Mike Gonzalez
3. Rafael Soriano
I'm a little higher on Hudson than I was entering the spring, but James looks like the Braves' No. 2 starter for fantasy purposes. He's not going to give up many groundball singles, allowing him to maintain a strong WHIP, and he should strike out about 150 batters. He's also a pretty good bet to stay healthy. He's a fine late-round pick in mixed leagues.
Hampton was only a $2 pitcher before suffering a strained oblique that will cost him the first month. He might match James in ERA, but he'll be a liability in WHIP and he'll barely strike out a batter every other inning. ? It looks like the Braves will go with Redman and Cormier at the back of the rotation while Hampton is out, with Davies returning to Triple-A. Cormier has had a terrific spring, but I have a hard time believing in a guy with a 130/107 K/BB ratio in 198 1/3 innings as a major leaguer. I prefer Redman as a fifth or sixth starter in NL-only leagues.
Chicago
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller
6. Angel Guzman
7. Mark Prior
8. Sean Marshall
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Kerry Wood
3. Bob Howry
4. Michael Wuertz
Lilly and Hill both look like $10 pitchers. Lilly should have the edge in ERA and WHIP, with Hill making up the difference in strikeouts. He's capable of fanning 200 batters in his first full season. ? With an 87 mph fastball and little command of his breaking stuff, Prior looked nothing like a major league pitcher in his first couple of starts of the spring. The arm strength is supposed to be coming back, as his radar gun readings have been a little better each time out. If he can avoid any setbacks, maybe he'll be ready to join the rotation a month into the season. However, it's at least as likely that he'll be hurt again by then.
I like Guzman as a sleeper for the final three or four months. Miller is likely to open the season as the Cubs' fifth starter, but he's not very interesting. I'd hesitate to spend a buck on Miller or Marquis.
There didn't seem to be any chance of Dempster losing his job this spring even before Wood's latest misstep. Wood figures to be the better pitcher when healthy, but even if he can stay off the DL, it could be months before he turns himself into an option in the closer's role. It'd probably be best to stay away from the entire situation.
Cincinnati
1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Eric Milton
5. Matt Belisle
6. Kirk Saarloos
7. Paul Wilson
8. Elizardo Ramirez
9. Homer Bailey
1. David Weathers
2. Mike Stanton
3. Todd Coffey
4. Dustin Hermanson
5. Bill Bray
6. Gary Majewski
Arroyo can't possibly be quite as outstanding in his second year back in the NL, but that he's as good of a bet as anyone to lead the league in innings will give him plenty of opportunities for wins and strikeouts. I give him a $2 edge over Harang. ? Leaving Bailey out of the equation, Lohse is the most interesting of the rest of the Reds' potential starters. He was never able to put things together for the Twins and he was far short of stellar after being picked up by Cincinnati last year, but he's capable of posting an ERA in the low-4.00s and striking out 140 batters. He could supply $6-$8 in value for a $1-$2 investment.
Bailey failed to impress with his command this spring, but he should be up for good by June 1. None of the Reds' fifth-starter candidates figure to stand in the way once he proves he's ready.
Coffey is complicating the Reds' closer situation with an 8/1 K/BB ratio in six scoreless innings this spring, and Hermanson has tossed three perfect innings so far despite topping out at 88 mph. I'd gamble a buck or two on either of them before investing in Weathers or Stanton. Those two are due to share closing duties at the beginning of the season, with Weathers likely getting most of the opportunities.
Colorado
1. Aaron Cook
2. Jeff Francis
3. Rodrigo Lopez
4. Josh Fogg
5. Jason Hirsh
6. Byung-Hyun Kim
7. Brian Lawrence
8. Ubaldo Jimenez
1. Brian Fuentes
2. Ramon Ramirez
3. Manny Corpas
4. LaTroy Hawkins
5. Taylor Buchholz
6. Jeremy Affeldt
7. Juan Morillo
Cook is a $1 option in 4x4 leagues, but Francis is the only Rockies starter worthy of much consideration in strikeout leagues. I have him at $4. ? Kim appears likely to be elsewhere on Opening Day, which could make him more interesting. It's for the best as long as it means Hirsh will open the season in the rotation. ? Lawrence, who missed all of last season after shoulder surgery, could be a possibility to join the rotation by May 1.
I'm listing a bunch of relievers here just in case Fuentes is dealt at midseason. He'll be due north of $5 million in 2008, and the Rockies may decide that's money better spent on locking up young hitters. ? While the Rockies want LaTroy Hawkins to be their eighth-inning guy in front of Fuentes, his history could result in the club turning elsewhere should Fuentes go. Ramirez looks like the top candidate based on last year's numbers, but I don't expect him to keep it up. Corpas and Buchholz could be better options by the time July comes around, so it's worth keeping tabs on both as the season progresses. Morillo, who will open the year in Triple-A, is the best bet in the organization to develop into a long-term closer.
Florida
1. Dontrelle Willis
2. Josh Johnson
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Scott Olsen
5. Ricky Nolasco
6. Sergio Mitre
7. Yusmeiro Petit
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]
1. Taylor Tankersley
2. Kevin Gregg
3. Matt Lindstrom
4. Henry Owens
5. Randy Messenger
6. Ricky Nolasco
7. Nate Field
8. Renyel Pinto
9. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]
10. Felix Rodriguez
The scramble for the closer's role in Florida should only intensify with Tankersley likely to return from a sore shoulder before the end of the week. Lindstrom and Owens, the hard-throwing right-handers acquired from the Mets in the Jason Vargas trade, have combined to give up one run in 16 1/3 innings, and Gregg, who looked to be the top candidate for saves when Tankersley went down, has pitched well in his last three appearances to lower his ERA to 2.45. I still have Tankersley ranked highest of the quartet, though he's perhaps the worst bet for April saves. I'd go to $9 or $10 for him. Gregg comes in a couple of dollars lower. Lindstrom and Owens are weaker picks. Both have strong minor league track records, but neither has a top-notch second pitch to pair with a very good fastball. You can check back in a week, but right now, I'd say each is only worth $1-$2.
Johnson will miss the first two months with a nerve problem in his elbow, otherwise Nolasco might be the favorite for saves in the Florida pen right now. Instead, Nolasco is certain to enter the season as the Marlins' fourth starter. I doubt he'll go into the pen later this year, but since it can't be ruled out, he's an even stronger sleeper in NL-only leagues. I like him as a $3-$4 pick.
Sanchez has eased concerns about his shoulder with three straight strong outings, but I still don't like his chances of holding up for 200 innings. Olsen is the better choice in my opinion. He'd be a very good late-round selection in mixed leagues. ? Neither fifth-starter candidate figures to have much value. Mitre appears likely to get the nod over Petit.
Houston
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Jason Jennings
3. Woody Williams
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Fernando Nieve
6. Chris Sampson
7. Matt Albers
8. Brian Moehler
1. Brad Lidge
2. Dan Wheeler
3. Chad Qualls
And I was so hoping I was wrong when I originally penciled in Rodriguez as the No. 4 starter when I was making depth charts for the magazine in early January. ? While I have serious concerns about his elbow, Nieve is the most interesting of the Astros' starters beyond the top three. I wouldn't pencil him in for even 150 innings, but he could compile an ERA under 4.00 while healthy. ? Sampson should probably be the Astros' fifth starter. He's not going to excite but he's far more likely than Rodriguez to give a team five or six solid innings each time out. He'd be a nice $1 pick if he somehow ends up with the job. He'll probably have to wait until May or June.
While he says he's healthy, Lidge has been doing little but grooving fastballs and hanging sliders since March began. I was confident he'd bounce back and reestablish himself as a top-10 closer this year, but I'm not nearly as optimistic now. Wheeler is next in line for saves and would be a smart target in all formats.
Los Angeles
1. Derek Lowe
2. Randy Wolf
3. Jason Schmidt
4. Brad Penny
5. Mark Hendrickson
6. Hong-Chih Kuo
7. Brett Tomko
8. Chad Billingsley
1. Takashi Saito
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Brett Tomko
4. Yhency Brazoban
5. Chad Billingsley
6. Chin-Hui Tsao
Schmidt is my No. 10 overall starter, ranking him well ahead of Lowe, Penny and Wolf. Wolf could be the best value pick of the lesser three. He's always had a nice strikeout rate for a left-hander, and getting out of Philadelphia should result in a solid ERA and WHIP in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.
I hate the Dodgers' decision to stick Billingsley in the pen, but at least they didn't do it just to hand one of the veterans the final spot in the rotation. Kuo still had a very good chance of opening the season as the club's fifth starter until an ugly showing in his last appearance. Now it's hard to tell what will happen. Hendrickson is likely a better option than Tomko, but he remains a strong candidate to be dealt. I like Kuo as a $6-$8 pick if he can regain command of his fastball and secure a spot, but that's probably not going to happen in time for the start of the year. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, Hendrickson would be a $1-$2 sleeper if's the choice. I don't think he'd have value elsewhere.
Saito doesn't have to rack up the same kind of numbers he did last year in order to remain a fair closer, but Broxton will eventually prove to be the Dodgers' best reliever. While there's no guarantee that will get into the closer's role before the end of my season, he's my No. 1 fantasy setup man in the NL.
Milwaukee
1. Ben Sheets
2. Jeff Suppan
3. Chris Capuano
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas
6. Carlos Villanueva
7. Zach Jackson
8. Yovani Gallardo
1. Francisco Cordero
2. Derrick Turnbow
3. Jose Capellan
The Brewers thought Suppan was worth $42 million, but I have him sixth among the club's starters in my rankings. Villanueva is a strong $1 pick even though he'll be the odd man out on Opening Day, and Vargas also has a better chance than Suppan of amassing value in Milwaukee. ? Bush was a far better pick a year ago when many NL owners still hadn't heard of him. I don't see his outstanding WHIP as a sign that a true breakthrough is coming this year. He'll likely be solid once again, and I do have him at $9. Still, he's not someone I'd pick in a shallow mixed league.
Turnbow's strong spring will get him involved in some more trade rumors, but the Brewers are probably going to keep him and hope he can form a dominant pairing with Cordero at the end of games. Cordero's job should be safe either way, but if Turnbow can bounce back, he'll be a closer again in 2008. That makes him pretty intriguing in keeper leagues.
New York
1. Tom Glavine
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Orlando Hernandez
4. John Maine
5. Oliver Perez
6. Mike Pelfrey
7. Chan Ho Park
8. Jorge Sosa
9. Jason Vargas
10. Aaron Sele
11. Philip Humber
188. Aaron Heilman
1. Billy Wagner
2. Duaner Sanchez
3. Aaron Heilman
As the only Met other than Glavine likely to go 190-200 innings, Maine looks like a solid pick. He won't excel in any category, but his WHIP should be solid and he'll probably post an ERA in the low-4.00s, especially if manager Willie Randolph is smart enough to make sure Endy Chavez is in the outfield every time he pitches.
I have Perez at $5, but he's the one pitcher on the team capable of a $15 season. I have a hard time imagining him returning to 2004 form all at once, but the upside is still there for a 15-win, 200-strikeout season. I project him at 12 wins, a 4.24 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 174 innings. ? Pelfrey would also come in at about $5 if he gets named the Mets' fifth starter. He should be in the lead with both Park and Sele struggling. Of course, a late acquisition is a possibility.
Philadelphia
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL]
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Brett Myers
4. Cole Hamels
5. Adam Eaton
6. Jon Lieber
7. Justin Germano
8. Eude Brito
1. Tom Gordon
2. Ryan Madson
3. Antonio Alfonseca
4. Geoff Geary
5. Joe Bisenius
I'm still working under the assumption that the Phillies will get an offer worth taking for Jon Lieber prior to Opening Day. If that doesn't happen, Eaton appears to be likeliest candidate for the pen. However, he is not going to be the setup man for Gordon the Phillies desire.
Though he'll apparently lose out on the Opening Day start to Garcia, Myers is the Phillies' ace. He's my No. 9 NL starter, with Hamels coming in at No. 14 and Garcia at No. 19. Hamels has the numbers of a top-10 guy, but his history of arm problems warrants a great deal of caution. I worry about Garcia's velocity, but he's smart enough to keep NL hitters off balance in his first year in the league and he'll probably throw about 220 innings even if his shoulder bothers him at times.
Madson is the closest thing the Phillies currently have to an alternative to Gordon. Geary might be at least as good of a stopgap, but his subpar fastball means the team won't consider him unless it has to. Bisenius could be ready to occupy a setup role by midseason and is a name to know for 2008 and beyond.
Pittsburgh
1. Zach Duke
2. Ian Snell
3. Paul Maholm
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Tony Armas Jr.
6. Shawn Chacon
7. Shane Youman
8. Marty McLeary
9. Sean Burnett
10. Yoslan Herrera
1. Salomon Torres
2. Matt Capps
3. Dan Kolb
4. Josh Sharpless
5. Bryan Bullington
I'm not as high on Snell as some, but he's the best bet of the Pirates' starters for 2007, if for no other reason than that he'll notch 30-40 more strikeouts than Duke. In a 4x4 league, I have them right about even. ? Gorzelanny's poor spring has made him a risky pick, but he'd still be nice to have at $2-$3. Possessing the best stuff of the Pirates' young left-handers, he's capable of a sub-4.00 ERA and 150 strikeouts this year. The big reason I don't suggest going higher is that I don't trust his elbow.
Armas seems likely to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, which probably means that Chacon will get traded or hit the waiver wire at the end of the spring. Armas has barely a fraction of the upside he once did, so he's a $1 pick at best. I like Chacon to outpitch him this year, assuming that he remains in the National League.
Even if Torres is the club's best reliever, his ability to go 90 innings would probably make him more valuable to the Pirates as a setup guy. Maybe management will eventually realize it and turn to Capps in the closer's role. It's more likely to happen in 2008, though.
St. Louis
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Braden Looper
6. Ryan Franklin
7. Chris Narveson
8. Brad Thompson
1. Jason Isringhausen
2. Braden Looper
3. Russ Springer
4. Brad Thompson
5. Tyler Johnson
The Cardinals didn't let Josh Kinney's season-ending elbow injury sway they from putting Wainwright and Looper into the rotation. I still think Looper will rejoin the bullpen eventually, perhaps putting Franklin into the rotation, but it's unlikely to happen in April and May, assuming that Isringhausen can stay healthy in the closer's role.
Wainwright's very impressive spring has caused me to bump him up not far south of Reyes in the rankings. I think Reyes' stronger WHIP will be the biggest difference between the two. Both seem pretty likely to stay healthy, with Wainwright probably the better bet to go 200 innings. They each should finish with right around 150 strikeouts. Reyes, especially, is a nice late-round option in mixed leagues. ? Wells hasn't shown quite enough this spring to get the same kind of boost Wainwright did. A respectable ERA is likely, but he's going to be a liability in WHIP and his failure to work deep into games will likely cost him victories.
San Diego
1. Jake Peavy
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]
3. Greg Maddux
4. Clay Hensley
5. David Wells
6. Mike Thompson
7. Tim Stauffer
8. Shawn Estes
1. Trevor Hoffman
2. Scott Linebrink
3. Cla Meredith
Thanks to Petco's helping hand, the Padres have the NL's best rotation for fantasy purposes. I give Peavy an edge over Zambrano, Oswalt and Webb, rating him as the league's No. 2 starting pitcher behind Carpenter. The only thing keeping Young out of the top 10 is his inability to get quick outs. As a six-inning guy, he's likely to fall short of 200 innings and 170 strikeouts. Still, he's a solid enough choice. Maddux steady decline in the rankings has come to a halt, and I have him at $11, $2 higher than last year. Hensley is another who will be solid in each category, giving him considerable value in NL-only leagues, and Wells' tough spring to date won't prevent me from recommending him at up to $5-$6.
Hoffman has also had a lousy March, but since his shoulder is fine, it's of no concern. Linebrink is a solid pick because of the possibility that he'll be traded to a team that will use him as a closer. However, he'll probably have to wait until 2008 to get his chance.
San Francisco
1. Barry Zito
2. Matt Cain
3. Noah Lowry
4. Matt Morris
5. Russ Ortiz
6. Jonathan Sanchez
7. Brad Hennessey
8. Tim Lincecum
1. Armando Benitez
2. Brian Wilson
3. Tim Lincecum
Zito makes up much of the gap with an extra 40 innings in the projections, but Cain is my top choice among Giants pitchers, coming in 11th among NL starters. He should be good for an ERA right around 3.50 and eight strikeouts per nine innings. I worry some about his arm, but that he got through last year without incident was a very encouraging development. ? The Giants' other starters don't offer much. Lowry will have some value, but he'll likely go for too much in leagues for the second year in a row. Morris appears done as more than a No. 4 starter, and even if Ortiz pulls off a successful comeback, his WHIP and strikeout rate will leave him with little fantasy value.
With six strikeouts in four scoreless innings this spring, Benitez suddenly seems set to open the season in the closer's role for the Giants. Wilson has also put together a pretty good showing following an outstanding stint in the Puerto Rican League over the winter, and the possibility of Benitez getting hurt again makes him worth up to $8. Lincecum could also be an option in the closer's role should Benitez and Wilson falter, but it'd be better for everyone if he's instead broken in as a starter in July or August.
Washington
1. John Patterson
2. Shawn Hill
3. Michael O'Connor
4. Jason Simontacchi
5. Jerome Williams
6. Tim Redding
7. Matt Chico
8. Brandon Claussen
9. Levale Speigner
10. Jason Bergmann
11. Joel Hanrahan
1. Chad Cordero
2. Jon Rauch
3. Luis Ayala
4. Ryan Wagner
O'Connor and Claussen will both miss the first couple of months as they recover from elbow and shoulder surgeries, respectively, but they'll likely get added to the rotation later on. In the meantime, the Nationals appear set to go with a front three of Patterson, Hill and Simontacchi. Hill could be solid enough if he can just remain healthy, but he has little in the way of fantasy upside. Simontacchi will be around primarily to eat innings until someone better comes along. There's just no one here besides Patterson worthy of even a $1 investment right now.
Rauch is likely to have first dibs on the closer's role should Cordero get traded this spring. Still, there's the chance the Nationals could move both if they're offered enough talent in return. That'd bring Wagner into the picture. If he gets off to a good start, he'd be someone to consider picking up in NL-only leagues.
NL Pitching Preview
I'll be moving on to a true notes format next week. First, here's a look at the NL's pitching depth charts and suggestions on which arms to target and which to avoid. Editor's Note:
Don't forget that more in-depth analysis, along with Rankings, Dollar Values, Cheat Sheets, Sleepers, Busts and over 1000 Players Profiled are found in our Online Draft Guide. It's updated in real-time as we report the news. Click here to check it out.
Also thousands of other fantasy baseball fanatics are talking about how to prepare for their fantasy baseball drafts in the Rotoworld forums.
National League notes
Arizona
1. Brandon Webb
2. Randy Johnson
3. Livan Hernandez
4. Doug Davis
5. Micah Owings
6. Enrique Gonzalez
7. Dana Eveland
8. Dustin Nippert
9. Edgar Gonzalez
1. Jose Valverde
2. Tony Pena
3. Jorge Julio
4. Brandon Medders
5. Micah Owings
6. Brandon Lyon
7. Juan Cruz
The Big Unit has a far better chance of reemerging as a top-20 fantasy starter now that he's back in the NL. He's still not likely to excel in ERA, but his WHIP and strikeout rate will be strong and he'll get better run support than he did in 2004, when the Arizona offense cost him a Cy Young Award. ? Hernandez and Davis are strictly $1 starters in my book. Chase Field will punish each.
I don't have any big favorites from the fifth-starter competition. Cruz would have been the biggest sleeper in the bunch, but he wasn't given a shot to win the job. Edgar Gonzalez is helped by being out of options, but the Diamondbacks could just keep him initially and then try to send him through waivers when Johnson returns in mid-April. I think Eveland has the best chance of any of them of amassing a little value in NL-only leagues.
Valverde will have the closer's role all to himself to begin the year, but despite his talent, he doesn't have the same kind of margin for error that most do. The Diamondbacks would love to see Pena step up and become the top setup man and No. 1 alternative to Valverde. Julio would also be in the mix if he isn't traded prior to Opening Day.
Atlanta
1. John Smoltz
2. Tim Hudson
3. Chuck James
4. Mike Hampton
5. Mark Redman
6. Lance Cormier
7. Kyle Davies
8. Matt Harrison
1. Bob Wickman
2. Mike Gonzalez
3. Rafael Soriano
I'm a little higher on Hudson than I was entering the spring, but James looks like the Braves' No. 2 starter for fantasy purposes. He's not going to give up many groundball singles, allowing him to maintain a strong WHIP, and he should strike out about 150 batters. He's also a pretty good bet to stay healthy. He's a fine late-round pick in mixed leagues.
Hampton was only a $2 pitcher before suffering a strained oblique that will cost him the first month. He might match James in ERA, but he'll be a liability in WHIP and he'll barely strike out a batter every other inning. ? It looks like the Braves will go with Redman and Cormier at the back of the rotation while Hampton is out, with Davies returning to Triple-A. Cormier has had a terrific spring, but I have a hard time believing in a guy with a 130/107 K/BB ratio in 198 1/3 innings as a major leaguer. I prefer Redman as a fifth or sixth starter in NL-only leagues.
Chicago
1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Ted Lilly
3. Jason Marquis
4. Rich Hill
5. Wade Miller
6. Angel Guzman
7. Mark Prior
8. Sean Marshall
1. Ryan Dempster
2. Kerry Wood
3. Bob Howry
4. Michael Wuertz
Lilly and Hill both look like $10 pitchers. Lilly should have the edge in ERA and WHIP, with Hill making up the difference in strikeouts. He's capable of fanning 200 batters in his first full season. ? With an 87 mph fastball and little command of his breaking stuff, Prior looked nothing like a major league pitcher in his first couple of starts of the spring. The arm strength is supposed to be coming back, as his radar gun readings have been a little better each time out. If he can avoid any setbacks, maybe he'll be ready to join the rotation a month into the season. However, it's at least as likely that he'll be hurt again by then.
I like Guzman as a sleeper for the final three or four months. Miller is likely to open the season as the Cubs' fifth starter, but he's not very interesting. I'd hesitate to spend a buck on Miller or Marquis.
There didn't seem to be any chance of Dempster losing his job this spring even before Wood's latest misstep. Wood figures to be the better pitcher when healthy, but even if he can stay off the DL, it could be months before he turns himself into an option in the closer's role. It'd probably be best to stay away from the entire situation.
Cincinnati
1. Aaron Harang
2. Bronson Arroyo
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Eric Milton
5. Matt Belisle
6. Kirk Saarloos
7. Paul Wilson
8. Elizardo Ramirez
9. Homer Bailey
1. David Weathers
2. Mike Stanton
3. Todd Coffey
4. Dustin Hermanson
5. Bill Bray
6. Gary Majewski
Arroyo can't possibly be quite as outstanding in his second year back in the NL, but that he's as good of a bet as anyone to lead the league in innings will give him plenty of opportunities for wins and strikeouts. I give him a $2 edge over Harang. ? Leaving Bailey out of the equation, Lohse is the most interesting of the rest of the Reds' potential starters. He was never able to put things together for the Twins and he was far short of stellar after being picked up by Cincinnati last year, but he's capable of posting an ERA in the low-4.00s and striking out 140 batters. He could supply $6-$8 in value for a $1-$2 investment.
Bailey failed to impress with his command this spring, but he should be up for good by June 1. None of the Reds' fifth-starter candidates figure to stand in the way once he proves he's ready.
Coffey is complicating the Reds' closer situation with an 8/1 K/BB ratio in six scoreless innings this spring, and Hermanson has tossed three perfect innings so far despite topping out at 88 mph. I'd gamble a buck or two on either of them before investing in Weathers or Stanton. Those two are due to share closing duties at the beginning of the season, with Weathers likely getting most of the opportunities.
Colorado
1. Aaron Cook
2. Jeff Francis
3. Rodrigo Lopez
4. Josh Fogg
5. Jason Hirsh
6. Byung-Hyun Kim
7. Brian Lawrence
8. Ubaldo Jimenez
1. Brian Fuentes
2. Ramon Ramirez
3. Manny Corpas
4. LaTroy Hawkins
5. Taylor Buchholz
6. Jeremy Affeldt
7. Juan Morillo
Cook is a $1 option in 4x4 leagues, but Francis is the only Rockies starter worthy of much consideration in strikeout leagues. I have him at $4. ? Kim appears likely to be elsewhere on Opening Day, which could make him more interesting. It's for the best as long as it means Hirsh will open the season in the rotation. ? Lawrence, who missed all of last season after shoulder surgery, could be a possibility to join the rotation by May 1.
I'm listing a bunch of relievers here just in case Fuentes is dealt at midseason. He'll be due north of $5 million in 2008, and the Rockies may decide that's money better spent on locking up young hitters. ? While the Rockies want LaTroy Hawkins to be their eighth-inning guy in front of Fuentes, his history could result in the club turning elsewhere should Fuentes go. Ramirez looks like the top candidate based on last year's numbers, but I don't expect him to keep it up. Corpas and Buchholz could be better options by the time July comes around, so it's worth keeping tabs on both as the season progresses. Morillo, who will open the year in Triple-A, is the best bet in the organization to develop into a long-term closer.
Florida
1. Dontrelle Willis
2. Josh Johnson
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Scott Olsen
5. Ricky Nolasco
6. Sergio Mitre
7. Yusmeiro Petit
8. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]
1. Taylor Tankersley
2. Kevin Gregg
3. Matt Lindstrom
4. Henry Owens
5. Randy Messenger
6. Ricky Nolasco
7. Nate Field
8. Renyel Pinto
9. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=4617"]Jose Garcia[/URL]
10. Felix Rodriguez
The scramble for the closer's role in Florida should only intensify with Tankersley likely to return from a sore shoulder before the end of the week. Lindstrom and Owens, the hard-throwing right-handers acquired from the Mets in the Jason Vargas trade, have combined to give up one run in 16 1/3 innings, and Gregg, who looked to be the top candidate for saves when Tankersley went down, has pitched well in his last three appearances to lower his ERA to 2.45. I still have Tankersley ranked highest of the quartet, though he's perhaps the worst bet for April saves. I'd go to $9 or $10 for him. Gregg comes in a couple of dollars lower. Lindstrom and Owens are weaker picks. Both have strong minor league track records, but neither has a top-notch second pitch to pair with a very good fastball. You can check back in a week, but right now, I'd say each is only worth $1-$2.
Johnson will miss the first two months with a nerve problem in his elbow, otherwise Nolasco might be the favorite for saves in the Florida pen right now. Instead, Nolasco is certain to enter the season as the Marlins' fourth starter. I doubt he'll go into the pen later this year, but since it can't be ruled out, he's an even stronger sleeper in NL-only leagues. I like him as a $3-$4 pick.
Sanchez has eased concerns about his shoulder with three straight strong outings, but I still don't like his chances of holding up for 200 innings. Olsen is the better choice in my opinion. He'd be a very good late-round selection in mixed leagues. ? Neither fifth-starter candidate figures to have much value. Mitre appears likely to get the nod over Petit.
Houston
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Jason Jennings
3. Woody Williams
4. Wandy Rodriguez
5. Fernando Nieve
6. Chris Sampson
7. Matt Albers
8. Brian Moehler
1. Brad Lidge
2. Dan Wheeler
3. Chad Qualls
And I was so hoping I was wrong when I originally penciled in Rodriguez as the No. 4 starter when I was making depth charts for the magazine in early January. ? While I have serious concerns about his elbow, Nieve is the most interesting of the Astros' starters beyond the top three. I wouldn't pencil him in for even 150 innings, but he could compile an ERA under 4.00 while healthy. ? Sampson should probably be the Astros' fifth starter. He's not going to excite but he's far more likely than Rodriguez to give a team five or six solid innings each time out. He'd be a nice $1 pick if he somehow ends up with the job. He'll probably have to wait until May or June.
While he says he's healthy, Lidge has been doing little but grooving fastballs and hanging sliders since March began. I was confident he'd bounce back and reestablish himself as a top-10 closer this year, but I'm not nearly as optimistic now. Wheeler is next in line for saves and would be a smart target in all formats.
Los Angeles
1. Derek Lowe
2. Randy Wolf
3. Jason Schmidt
4. Brad Penny
5. Mark Hendrickson
6. Hong-Chih Kuo
7. Brett Tomko
8. Chad Billingsley
1. Takashi Saito
2. Jonathan Broxton
3. Brett Tomko
4. Yhency Brazoban
5. Chad Billingsley
6. Chin-Hui Tsao
Schmidt is my No. 10 overall starter, ranking him well ahead of Lowe, Penny and Wolf. Wolf could be the best value pick of the lesser three. He's always had a nice strikeout rate for a left-hander, and getting out of Philadelphia should result in a solid ERA and WHIP in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery.
I hate the Dodgers' decision to stick Billingsley in the pen, but at least they didn't do it just to hand one of the veterans the final spot in the rotation. Kuo still had a very good chance of opening the season as the club's fifth starter until an ugly showing in his last appearance. Now it's hard to tell what will happen. Hendrickson is likely a better option than Tomko, but he remains a strong candidate to be dealt. I like Kuo as a $6-$8 pick if he can regain command of his fastball and secure a spot, but that's probably not going to happen in time for the start of the year. With Dodger Stadium aiding him, Hendrickson would be a $1-$2 sleeper if's the choice. I don't think he'd have value elsewhere.
Saito doesn't have to rack up the same kind of numbers he did last year in order to remain a fair closer, but Broxton will eventually prove to be the Dodgers' best reliever. While there's no guarantee that will get into the closer's role before the end of my season, he's my No. 1 fantasy setup man in the NL.
Milwaukee
1. Ben Sheets
2. Jeff Suppan
3. Chris Capuano
4. Dave Bush
5. Claudio Vargas
6. Carlos Villanueva
7. Zach Jackson
8. Yovani Gallardo
1. Francisco Cordero
2. Derrick Turnbow
3. Jose Capellan
The Brewers thought Suppan was worth $42 million, but I have him sixth among the club's starters in my rankings. Villanueva is a strong $1 pick even though he'll be the odd man out on Opening Day, and Vargas also has a better chance than Suppan of amassing value in Milwaukee. ? Bush was a far better pick a year ago when many NL owners still hadn't heard of him. I don't see his outstanding WHIP as a sign that a true breakthrough is coming this year. He'll likely be solid once again, and I do have him at $9. Still, he's not someone I'd pick in a shallow mixed league.
Turnbow's strong spring will get him involved in some more trade rumors, but the Brewers are probably going to keep him and hope he can form a dominant pairing with Cordero at the end of games. Cordero's job should be safe either way, but if Turnbow can bounce back, he'll be a closer again in 2008. That makes him pretty intriguing in keeper leagues.
New York
1. Tom Glavine
2. Pedro Martinez
3. Orlando Hernandez
4. John Maine
5. Oliver Perez
6. Mike Pelfrey
7. Chan Ho Park
8. Jorge Sosa
9. Jason Vargas
10. Aaron Sele
11. Philip Humber
188. Aaron Heilman
1. Billy Wagner
2. Duaner Sanchez
3. Aaron Heilman
As the only Met other than Glavine likely to go 190-200 innings, Maine looks like a solid pick. He won't excel in any category, but his WHIP should be solid and he'll probably post an ERA in the low-4.00s, especially if manager Willie Randolph is smart enough to make sure Endy Chavez is in the outfield every time he pitches.
I have Perez at $5, but he's the one pitcher on the team capable of a $15 season. I have a hard time imagining him returning to 2004 form all at once, but the upside is still there for a 15-win, 200-strikeout season. I project him at 12 wins, a 4.24 ERA and 171 strikeouts in 174 innings. ? Pelfrey would also come in at about $5 if he gets named the Mets' fifth starter. He should be in the lead with both Park and Sele struggling. Of course, a late acquisition is a possibility.
Philadelphia
1. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=2739"]Freddy Garcia[/URL]
2. Jamie Moyer
3. Brett Myers
4. Cole Hamels
5. Adam Eaton
6. Jon Lieber
7. Justin Germano
8. Eude Brito
1. Tom Gordon
2. Ryan Madson
3. Antonio Alfonseca
4. Geoff Geary
5. Joe Bisenius
I'm still working under the assumption that the Phillies will get an offer worth taking for Jon Lieber prior to Opening Day. If that doesn't happen, Eaton appears to be likeliest candidate for the pen. However, he is not going to be the setup man for Gordon the Phillies desire.
Though he'll apparently lose out on the Opening Day start to Garcia, Myers is the Phillies' ace. He's my No. 9 NL starter, with Hamels coming in at No. 14 and Garcia at No. 19. Hamels has the numbers of a top-10 guy, but his history of arm problems warrants a great deal of caution. I worry about Garcia's velocity, but he's smart enough to keep NL hitters off balance in his first year in the league and he'll probably throw about 220 innings even if his shoulder bothers him at times.
Madson is the closest thing the Phillies currently have to an alternative to Gordon. Geary might be at least as good of a stopgap, but his subpar fastball means the team won't consider him unless it has to. Bisenius could be ready to occupy a setup role by midseason and is a name to know for 2008 and beyond.
Pittsburgh
1. Zach Duke
2. Ian Snell
3. Paul Maholm
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Tony Armas Jr.
6. Shawn Chacon
7. Shane Youman
8. Marty McLeary
9. Sean Burnett
10. Yoslan Herrera
1. Salomon Torres
2. Matt Capps
3. Dan Kolb
4. Josh Sharpless
5. Bryan Bullington
I'm not as high on Snell as some, but he's the best bet of the Pirates' starters for 2007, if for no other reason than that he'll notch 30-40 more strikeouts than Duke. In a 4x4 league, I have them right about even. ? Gorzelanny's poor spring has made him a risky pick, but he'd still be nice to have at $2-$3. Possessing the best stuff of the Pirates' young left-handers, he's capable of a sub-4.00 ERA and 150 strikeouts this year. The big reason I don't suggest going higher is that I don't trust his elbow.
Armas seems likely to claim the fifth spot in the rotation, which probably means that Chacon will get traded or hit the waiver wire at the end of the spring. Armas has barely a fraction of the upside he once did, so he's a $1 pick at best. I like Chacon to outpitch him this year, assuming that he remains in the National League.
Even if Torres is the club's best reliever, his ability to go 90 innings would probably make him more valuable to the Pirates as a setup guy. Maybe management will eventually realize it and turn to Capps in the closer's role. It's more likely to happen in 2008, though.
St. Louis
1. Chris Carpenter
2. Kip Wells
3. Anthony Reyes
4. Adam Wainwright
5. Braden Looper
6. Ryan Franklin
7. Chris Narveson
8. Brad Thompson
1. Jason Isringhausen
2. Braden Looper
3. Russ Springer
4. Brad Thompson
5. Tyler Johnson
The Cardinals didn't let Josh Kinney's season-ending elbow injury sway they from putting Wainwright and Looper into the rotation. I still think Looper will rejoin the bullpen eventually, perhaps putting Franklin into the rotation, but it's unlikely to happen in April and May, assuming that Isringhausen can stay healthy in the closer's role.
Wainwright's very impressive spring has caused me to bump him up not far south of Reyes in the rankings. I think Reyes' stronger WHIP will be the biggest difference between the two. Both seem pretty likely to stay healthy, with Wainwright probably the better bet to go 200 innings. They each should finish with right around 150 strikeouts. Reyes, especially, is a nice late-round option in mixed leagues. ? Wells hasn't shown quite enough this spring to get the same kind of boost Wainwright did. A respectable ERA is likely, but he's going to be a liability in WHIP and his failure to work deep into games will likely cost him victories.
San Diego
1. Jake Peavy
2. [URL="http://fantasyfootball.usatoday.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=MLB&id=194"]Chris Young[/URL]
3. Greg Maddux
4. Clay Hensley
5. David Wells
6. Mike Thompson
7. Tim Stauffer
8. Shawn Estes
1. Trevor Hoffman
2. Scott Linebrink
3. Cla Meredith
Thanks to Petco's helping hand, the Padres have the NL's best rotation for fantasy purposes. I give Peavy an edge over Zambrano, Oswalt and Webb, rating him as the league's No. 2 starting pitcher behind Carpenter. The only thing keeping Young out of the top 10 is his inability to get quick outs. As a six-inning guy, he's likely to fall short of 200 innings and 170 strikeouts. Still, he's a solid enough choice. Maddux steady decline in the rankings has come to a halt, and I have him at $11, $2 higher than last year. Hensley is another who will be solid in each category, giving him considerable value in NL-only leagues, and Wells' tough spring to date won't prevent me from recommending him at up to $5-$6.
Hoffman has also had a lousy March, but since his shoulder is fine, it's of no concern. Linebrink is a solid pick because of the possibility that he'll be traded to a team that will use him as a closer. However, he'll probably have to wait until 2008 to get his chance.
San Francisco
1. Barry Zito
2. Matt Cain
3. Noah Lowry
4. Matt Morris
5. Russ Ortiz
6. Jonathan Sanchez
7. Brad Hennessey
8. Tim Lincecum
1. Armando Benitez
2. Brian Wilson
3. Tim Lincecum
Zito makes up much of the gap with an extra 40 innings in the projections, but Cain is my top choice among Giants pitchers, coming in 11th among NL starters. He should be good for an ERA right around 3.50 and eight strikeouts per nine innings. I worry some about his arm, but that he got through last year without incident was a very encouraging development. ? The Giants' other starters don't offer much. Lowry will have some value, but he'll likely go for too much in leagues for the second year in a row. Morris appears done as more than a No. 4 starter, and even if Ortiz pulls off a successful comeback, his WHIP and strikeout rate will leave him with little fantasy value.
With six strikeouts in four scoreless innings this spring, Benitez suddenly seems set to open the season in the closer's role for the Giants. Wilson has also put together a pretty good showing following an outstanding stint in the Puerto Rican League over the winter, and the possibility of Benitez getting hurt again makes him worth up to $8. Lincecum could also be an option in the closer's role should Benitez and Wilson falter, but it'd be better for everyone if he's instead broken in as a starter in July or August.
Washington
1. John Patterson
2. Shawn Hill
3. Michael O'Connor
4. Jason Simontacchi
5. Jerome Williams
6. Tim Redding
7. Matt Chico
8. Brandon Claussen
9. Levale Speigner
10. Jason Bergmann
11. Joel Hanrahan
1. Chad Cordero
2. Jon Rauch
3. Luis Ayala
4. Ryan Wagner
O'Connor and Claussen will both miss the first couple of months as they recover from elbow and shoulder surgeries, respectively, but they'll likely get added to the rotation later on. In the meantime, the Nationals appear set to go with a front three of Patterson, Hill and Simontacchi. Hill could be solid enough if he can just remain healthy, but he has little in the way of fantasy upside. Simontacchi will be around primarily to eat innings until someone better comes along. There's just no one here besides Patterson worthy of even a $1 investment right now.
Rauch is likely to have first dibs on the closer's role should Cordero get traded this spring. Still, there's the chance the Nationals could move both if they're offered enough talent in return. That'd bring Wagner into the picture. If he gets off to a good start, he'd be someone to consider picking up in NL-only leagues.