Re: WILL BIG BROWN WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN???
Here's the problem that i see for Big Brown.
The reason that no one has won the Triple Crown in 30 years is because the breed isn't nearly as sturdy as it was back in the day.
We, as a sport, are trying to 'recreate' past glory with a modern thoroughbred that's as fragile as road playoff teams in the NBA, 2008 version.
Everything has gotten weaker, mentally and physically. Everything is a watered down version of the old days. There is way more of everything in our society and more isn't better.
So, the question is this. Can Big Brown 'buck' the alarming trend of the weakening breed and do something that no horse could do in 30 years?
Also, remember these important facts. Big Brown's Preakness doesn't count as much as defining his greatness as does the Derby. In the Derby, he defeated the best 3 year olds we had to offer. He won by a bit under 5 lengths under an all out drive all the way. He couldn't have won by 1 more inch. What you saw on Derby day was the best BB had to offer.
His Preakness, he beat much inferior competition. Also, and no one is discussing this, but the two frontrunners, the 2 horses that BB was stalking into the late far turn, both came to a dead stop and boxed in a few live runners who were moving well. Those horses were taken up and lost every inch of momentum. They weren't ever going to beat BB even if they got clear, but they would have been much closer to him at the wire had they gotten a clear shot thru, which a handful did not.
The 64 dollar question is this. Can Big Brown, with his 3rd race in 5 weeks and also many races crammed in a short (by industry standards) span of time, defeat his strongest challenger (casino drive) who has been rested and waiting at Belmont?
One more thing. In the Preakness, BB was a bit too eager early on in the race for my tastes...the mile and a half is a whole new ballgame and BB has shown tremendous eagerness to do it early and often........will he have enough left for the stretch and hold off an onrushing Casino Drive?
Casino Drive is a REAL horse. The stuff he beat at Pimlico wasn't even in the same galaxy.
Time is going to tell. If BB wins the TC, he's going to earn it. No more huge margins of victory under wraps, that's not happening here, BB will be tested like he's never been tested before and if he wins it...even by a nose, he's a worthy Champion and i'll tip my hat to him.
I think that BB is the most likely winner and more than a 50% chance of victory, but i don't think he's the 'sure thing' that the public is going to think he is before the race.
BB was not trained at all into the Preakness. he was handled with kid gloves and had very little 'real' exercise going into the race. His trainer is very well aware of short rest and is likely to do everything in his power to 'rest' and 'freshen up' BB for this race.
But, will he do it at the expense of true and deep fitness? Casino drive will be training hard for this race, as will a whole bunch of other horses who didn't contest the Preakness.
This is a tough situation that the trainer is in because he has to walk a fine line of training BB hard enough to be fit for this race and at the same time, not burn out a horse who has had a lot of races crammed into a short period of time.
BALTIMORE — Saturday's Preakness Stakes proved two things.
