Coronavirus - The economy thread

V

Valuist

EOG Master
We have one Coronavirus thread with nearly 3800 posts and another with over 500. Time to start another, as this will be strictly about the economy.

I'm no fan of Bill Gates but his thoughts certainly do carry weight. Supposedly the modeling used by Fauci, Birx and Trump has been his model. Hearing Gates on CNBC this morning, it sounds like parts of the economy will re-open late May; probably Memorial Day weekend-ish. That's about what I expected. But he did comment on sporting events; you can't possibly have fans in the stands at that point. No surprise but have to think there will be no fans in stands for any sporting event the rest of 2020. Some other guesses? Cruise ships done until 2021. Casinos? You likely will have a dichotemy with Las Vegas casinos opening earlier than the rest of the country.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
New unemployment claims:
estimate: 5 million new claims
actual #: 6.6 million new claims

The futures actually rallied on that news.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
just how much more of a strong hold monopoly will Amazon have on this country when we emerge from this?

I'm sure they got so many new customers that are older and were set in their ways about shopping, but now their kids hooked them up with amazon and they won't want to go back for at least 12-18-24 months whenever they can finally get through the line and get their vaccine. By then they are hooked.


What does this do to the gig economy? It seems their working conditions and terms will be even more exploitable as the economy digs out. I assume this will lead to a lot of nonsense protests and half assed strikes ect. that won't really do anything other than annoy people.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Chi_Archie said:
just how much more of a strong hold monopoly will Amazon have on this country when we emerge from this?

I'm sure they got so many new customers that are older and were set in their ways about shopping, but now their kids hooked them up with amazon and they won't want to go back for at least 12-18-24 months whenever they can finally get through the line and get their vaccine. By then they are hooked.


What does this do to the gig economy? It seems their working conditions and terms will be even more exploitable as the economy digs out. I assume this will lead to a lot of nonsense protests and half assed strikes ect. that won't really do anything other than annoy people.
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No doubt Amazon, Walmart and Costco will come out stronger. The mom and pop places will get hurt. As for the gig economy, there's nothing proprietary about Uber or Lyft. Or Grubhub. I think you will see more restaurants doing their own delivery as Uber Eats and Grubhub fall by the wayside.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
Are there names being brought up for the Corona economic recovery task force?

how serious are we about getting shovel ready infrastructure jobs?

Can this virus bring back factories, production to the USA? now that we see our vulnerabilities of outsourcing so much, especially to china
we should at least be enticing medical supply companies to expand in the US or open in the US ect.

It seems to me more than ever, you want a republican run government in place to expedite the growth of business in the next few years.
 
Bigrunner

Bigrunner

EOG Master
Are we winning yet? I heard a pathological lying leader say we're at war. Against an invisible enemy. Same guy said the Federal government is the backup. I said it was a colossal failure from the beginning.

I miss the annual 25% gains over 8 years of the Obama markets.
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
Valuist said:
No doubt Amazon, Walmart and Costco will come out stronger. The mom and pop places will get hurt. As for the gig economy, there's nothing proprietary about Uber or Lyft. Or Grubhub. I think you will see more restaurants doing their own delivery as Uber Eats and Grubhub fall by the wayside.
Click to expand...


I've never really thought much about how the gig economy works. But wouldn't small chains and non franchise restaurants be unable to match the scale of Uber eats ect? yeah a pizza place can hire a brock landers or two but they can't match the at the ready workforce 24-7 of an uber eats. And they can't match flexibility and an almost sure steady amount of deliveries and thus tip potential. It would be 1 restaurant's orders vs an entire cities restaurant's worth of orders
 
Bigrunner

Bigrunner

EOG Master
Sleepy said:
Investors know that tons more of free money will be given out.
Click to expand...

With zero oversight. Trump fired the Inspector General in charge of overseeing where the money was going. Now there will be no transperency, just like everything else of the Trump administration. The abuse and fraud of these stimulus packages 3 trillion dollars will be massive with Trump and Mnuchin in charge of oversight.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Fed announces $2.3 trillion in programs. Great. Just more stimulus. One had better own gold. Only a matter of time before the dollar is replaced as world's currency.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Chi_Archie said:
I've never really thought much about how the gig economy works. But wouldn't small chains and non franchise restaurants be unable to match the scale of Uber eats ect? yeah a pizza place can hire a brock landers or two but they can't match the at the ready workforce 24-7 of an uber eats. And they can't match flexibility and an almost sure steady amount of deliveries and thus tip potential. It would be 1 restaurant's orders vs an entire cities restaurant's worth of orders
Click to expand...

Uber Eats costing them too much money. That's what I've heard. Uber and Grubhub charge too much of a fee.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
All together, more than 16 million Americans have filed for temporary unemployment benefits over the last three weeks.

Big number: The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs this quarter, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That would translate to an unemployment rate of 32.1%, well above the 24.9% rate during the Great Depression.

good thing easter and sports betting coming
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
If you are an experienced "prepper" or survialist or certified NRA Instructor the new few years will be a great time to launch a small business, website, youtube, podcast

Gun stores and shooting ranges will continue to do great

so we manufacture all our bullets in the US?
 
C

Chi_Archie

EOG Veteran
Its so crazy that Illinois's first sportsbooks were finally opened for about 2-3 days as conference tourney's started and then immediately had to close.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
MrTop said:
All together, more than 16 million Americans have filed for temporary unemployment benefits over the last three weeks.

Big number: The coronavirus outbreak could cost 47 million jobs this quarter, according to estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That would translate to an unemployment rate of 32.1%, well above the 24.9% rate during the Great Depression.

good thing easter and sports betting coming
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The govt is still working, as is the media, they dont give a shit about ordinary americans.
 
Bigrunner

Bigrunner

EOG Master
MrTop said:
Understanding Unemployment Insurance Claims and Other Labor Market Data During the COVID-19 Pandemic

https://kevinrinz.github.io/covid19_labordata.pdf
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Mr. Top you were very wrong about blaming Obama for not addressing pandemic crisis. He created multiple pandemic response tools. Offices and a playbook. He made speeches in 2014 where he predicted a pandemic in 5 years. He said America needs infrastructure to fight future viruses. And he asked Congress for funds. Everybit of this colossal failure is on Trump and his administration.
 
M

MrTop

EOG Master
Bigrunner said:
Mr. Top you were very wrong about blaming Obama for not addressing pandemic crisis. He created multiple pandemic response tools. Offices and a playbook. He made speeches in 2014 where he predicted a pandemic in 5 years. He said America needs infrastructure to fight future viruses. And he asked Congress for funds. Everybit of this colossal failure is on Trump and his administration.
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it is both of the presidents fault ..... more trump than obama who dropped the ball first and trump did not pick it up. What obama set up in china was an early warning notice.. does not work with a communist country like china... they will close off your info. Both presidents failed on 5G which will bury the USA in the end... China has signed up 80 countries with 5G..
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
How's this for a disconnect? ADP trades almost in direct correlation to unemployment. You have an incredible number of new claims: 6.6 million and because the overall market was up, they bid up ADP $4.

Sure the Fed can work its magic. But in the end, you still have to have earnings. If a company like Costco can have bad earnings, just wait to see the rest.
 
blueline

blueline

EOG Master
FWIW

Stanford University economist Nicholas Bloom is an expert on uncertainty and believes the economy will end this year 10% smaller than it was at the start of 2020, a loss of nearly $2 trillion even with the $2.2 trillion rescue package.

The long-term outlook also has deteriorated, he added, in ways that could hurt the recovery.

“Working from home is creating a collapse in investment,” Bloom said. “All firms I have spoken to have cancelled training, new product introductions and R&D projects, while at U.S. universities and laboratories unless you are working on COVID-19 you have stopped work. So innovation — the main driver of long-run U.S. growth — has stopped.”

Bloom has personally responded to the decline in an ominous way. He said he pulled his retirement funds and college savings from the stock market and placed them in interest-bearing accounts to wait out the storm.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
If you need to know the winners and losers in groceries -

In the last month:
My large accounts sales are 150% vs last year, everyone else is 30%.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Chi_Archie said:
Are there names being brought up for the Corona economic recovery task force?

how serious are we about getting shovel ready infrastructure jobs?

Can this virus bring back factories, production to the USA? now that we see our vulnerabilities of outsourcing so much, especially to china
we should at least be enticing medical supply companies to expand in the US or open in the US ect.

It seems to me more than ever, you want a republican run government in place to expedite the growth of business in the next few years.
Click to expand...
Japan wants to ween off of reliance from China and is prepared to invest billions.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Notice all the talking heads who want draconian restrictions until a vaccine arrives have jobs and money. They don't care for those who actually have to go earn money. Nice to hear from you Mr. Head of International Medical Research of what in an ideal world we would do, but there's a world outside your doors that wants to punch you in the face.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Bigrunner said:
Are we winning yet? I heard a pathological lying leader say we're at war. Against an invisible enemy. Same guy said the Federal government is the backup. I said it was a colossal failure from the beginning.

I miss the annual 25% gains over 8 years of the Obama markets.
Click to expand...
There you go. Big stupid Blunder shits on another thread after 5 posts.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Valuist said:
We have one Coronavirus thread with nearly 3800 posts and another with over 500. Time to start another, as this will be strictly about the economy.

I'm no fan of Bill Gates but his thoughts certainly do carry weight. Supposedly the modeling used by Fauci, Birx and Trump has been his model. Hearing Gates on CNBC this morning, it sounds like parts of the economy will re-open late May; probably Memorial Day weekend-ish. That's about what I expected. But he did comment on sporting events; you can't possibly have fans in the stands at that point. No surprise but have to think there will be no fans in stands for any sporting event the rest of 2020. Some other guesses? Cruise ships done until 2021. Casinos? You likely will have a dichotemy with Las Vegas casinos opening earlier than the rest of the country.
Click to expand...
No fucking way late May unless you are talking about full force. We should be opening the economy up now in baby steps. No fucking reason the great state of Arizona for instance should be Brian Steltering place. No outbreak.
 
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