150th Run for the Roses

Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Paul J. Matties, Jr. appeared on Krackman’s podcast and proclaimed his Derby pick is Fierceness.
He’s also on record predicting the track record owned by Secretariat may be in jeopardy today.

Weather forecast is for possible showers this afternoon ending by 4:00 pm and high 80 degrees.
Fast track unlikely.

Secretariat had nothing to worry about…
 

Heim

EOG Master
Is Collmus who announced this race for real? This 3 once he got thru on the rail was a full length ahead top of the stretch, Collmus is concentrating on the outside closers. He doesn't acknowledge the 3 until mid stretch a good 2-3 lengths ahead of the nearest horse. 🤦
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Is Collmus who announced this race for real? This 3 once he got thru on the rail was a full length ahead top of the stretch, Collmus is concentrating on the outside closers. He doesn't acknowledge the 3 until mid stretch a good 2-3 lengths ahead of the nearest horse. 🤦


Meantime, Churchill Downs track announcer Travis Stone produced a brilliant call.

Stone is arrogant, but he has a right to be.

 

Jammer

EOG Dedicated
What was Fierceness’ excuse? Seemed to have a good trip sitting third with no traffic. Then just got swallowed up after the half mile turn.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
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And spun his hind end out several times in the stretch. Think the 11 has KY connnections there may have been an inquiry?
 

Rockfish

EOG Addicted
Absolute brilliant and gutty ride by Hernandez on the winner. Calvin Borel would be proud of the way the Jockey muscled his way on the inside like Hernandez did to the 12 horse. Some Jocks would not of had the cajones to make that move.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
What was Fierceness’ excuse? Seemed to have a good trip sitting third with no traffic. Then just got swallowed up after the half mile turn.

Not the easiest of trips battling a fast pace 3 wide. First half run in a solid :46 3/5. The final 4 furlongs in about :52. The real running was the first 6 furlongs and then the race collapsed.
 

Bushay

NHL Expert
Mystic Dan with the near-perfect path to get to the finish. Benefitting drawing from the inside 3 hole. Anything after the 4-5 gate and his path goes a whole different route.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
They must've look hard at that because the time between finish and official was abnormally long.

No official inquiry. And it wouldn't have effected the winner but for public perception, that HAS to require a stewards inquiry.

Someday the Japanese horsemen will realize that going 5 wide on the Churchill dirt will get you beat. Better off with a local Churchill rider like Brian Hernandez or Corey Lanerie, (and before them, Calvin Borel), who understand how important it is to save ground at Churchill.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Absolute brilliant and gutty ride by Hernandez on the winner. Calvin Borel would be proud of the way the Jockey muscled his way on the inside like Hernandez did to the 12 horse. Some Jocks would not of had the cajones to make that move.

Exactly.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
And jockey Brian Hernandez pressed the button at just the right time.

Reminiscent of jock Gary Stevens aboard Winning Colors when "Colors" had just enough left to hold off a late-charging Forty Niner in the 1988 Kentucky Derby.
 
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blueline

EOG Master
"We’re not committed to the Preakness. No, not yet,” McPeek said the morning after his Mystik Dan won the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby by a nose over Sierra Leone. “We’ll just watch him over the next week. It will be one of those where we’ll probably take (the decision) up to the last minute. … We’ll let him tell us. If he’s not in the feed tub, he won’t run.”
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Wonder how Vic Stauffer would have performed as the Churchill Downs Track Announcer?



I appreciate Vic Stauffer's talent in the announcer's booth.

As I understand it, Stauffer's personality sometimes rubs racing people the wrong way.

On a report card in elementary school, Stauffer would have received an unsatisfactory mark in the box labeled "Works well with others."
 

Rockfish

EOG Addicted
No official inquiry. And it wouldn't have effected the winner but for public perception, that HAS to require a stewards inquiry.

Someday the Japanese horsemen will realize that going 5 wide on the Churchill dirt will get you beat. Better off with a local Churchill rider like Brian Hernandez or Corey Lanerie, (and before them, Calvin Borel), who understand how important it is to save ground at Churchill.
i disagree on the inquiry against the 3 horse.
If there was going to be an inquiry it would have been on the 2 horse. the 2 started out in the 8 or 9 path when they turned for home. He lugged in all the way down the stretch leaning and bumping the 11 horse, and at the wire the 2 was in the 3 path.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
Sierra Jockey being brought in for discussion and potential fine. Finish to official clock was most definitely delayed race day.
 

blueline

EOG Master
"The Stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby," the statement said, via Sports Illustrated's Pat Forde. "After conducting their standard review of the race, determining no further review or investigation was necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the Stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official."
 

blueline

EOG Master
TG numbers from Oaks/Derby days are out

Derby winner went 0.5 forward
2nd--pair
3rd--pair
4th--forward 1.5
5th--forward 1.25

Oaks winner went forward 3.5

Mindframe went back 3.25
 

Valuist

EOG Master
TG numbers from Oaks/Derby days are out

Derby winner went 0.5 forward
2nd--pair
3rd--pair
4th--forward 1.5
5th--forward 1.25

Oaks winner went forward 3.5

Mindframe went back 3.25

What were the actual numbers?

Mindframe certainly didn't need to run any faster. I know he had run a 0 at GP.
 

blueline

EOG Master
Derby winner went 0.5 forward---3
2nd--pair---1.5
3rd--pair---1
4th--forward 1.5-----3.25
5th--forward 1.25---3.75

Oaks winner went forward 3.5----1.25

Mindframe went back 3.25-----4
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Forward move, regression, pair, etc.

All terms popularized by the "sheet guys."

I wonder how much interpretation is used in assigning each number or if the numbers are strictly mechanical.

Do you see where I'm going here?

The creators can massage the numbers to promote situations where sheet readers respond positively.

I always thought groups like Ragozin and Thorograph had the best of both worlds: If a customer won money, he was buying the most accurate set of numbers in the game.

And if a customer lost money, he simply did not have the experience or wherewithal to properly interpret the data.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
That said, I've often heard it said the "sheet guys" swear by the turf numbers.

More marketing?
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Back in the day, when Las Vegas race books inside the Barbary Coast and Imperial Palace offered handsome rebates, the biggest players in the country were "sheet readers."
 

blueline

EOG Master
TG is the best commercially available performance " number:" out there that Im aware of.....nothing else is close......even if not using the "numbers" the concepts regarding age are a foundation of my handicapping
 
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