2021 MLB Total Wins
- Thread starter boston massacre
- Start date
Agreed.
PECOTA has the Cubs (85) winning three more games than the White Sox (82).
The betting market wisely disagrees.
The White Sox win total opened at 90.5 while the Cubs win total is only 79.5.
The betting market wisely disagrees.
The White Sox win total opened at 90.5 while the Cubs win total is only 79.5.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
A lot of wins in that AL Central for the sox.
Let's peel the onion on the AL Central.
Minnesota set an all time single season HR record in 2019. Cruz is 40 years old and Eddie Rosario is gone. A bunch of guys had career seasons. Some regression is expected, but 3 less wins than the White Sox? MLB has claimed that the ball will not be juiced this year (basically admitting it WAS juiced the past few years) and that will hurt the Twins but I believe its fully priced in. Let's look at 2019-2020 combined. The White Sox led MLB in BABIP at .325, 5 full points ahead a team who plays in a big stadium at 5000 feet altitude. There definitely could be some regression there. The White Sox also had the second worst walk rate in MLB; only Detroit was worse. Strikeout rate? Exact same story. Only Detroit hitters had a higher strikeout rate than the White Sox. 91 1/2 wins? There's only one way to play the White Sox and it isn't over. The market is pricing them as if the 2020 season was 162 games. Yes, they were good for 60 games. I'm not sure they would've sustained that over a full season. Their top 3 in the rotation (Giolito, Lynn, Keuchel) is solid. Cleveland has been undersold, IMO. They were 128-94 the last 2 years and now priced to be a .500 team? Yes, Lindor is a good player but I believe the linemaker has punished the Tribe too much (and been too kind to the Mets). Rosario and Gimenez both will contribute. Maybe not at Lindor's level, but LIndor wasn't all that good in 2020. They also add the other Rosario (Eddie) who will add some needed pop to the lineup. Carrasco was solid but he's also two years removed from lymphoma and north of 30 years old. Bieber is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. McKenzie has tremendous stuff. Plesac and Civale are serviceable. The Indians always seem to be able to produce starting pitchers. Of the teams in the Central, they would be the one I consider to bet over. Kansas City has added some veteran players. They were a terrible 27th in WRC+ in 2019 and improved a bit to 21st last year. Offensively, they've added Benintendi, Carlos Santana, and Michael Taylor. Keller has pitched well in his career, and he's a guy the analytics crowd hates because his low K numbers. They are counting big on two young arms in Singer and Bubic. Minor and Duffy are serviceable. Some improvement is expected, and it is being priced in. I would still lean over as I anticipate all the top 3 teams from 2020 to regress in win percentage. Detroit is young, rebuilding and still a mess. They are priced to be terrible so not much value in betting them under.
Minnesota set an all time single season HR record in 2019. Cruz is 40 years old and Eddie Rosario is gone. A bunch of guys had career seasons. Some regression is expected, but 3 less wins than the White Sox? MLB has claimed that the ball will not be juiced this year (basically admitting it WAS juiced the past few years) and that will hurt the Twins but I believe its fully priced in. Let's look at 2019-2020 combined. The White Sox led MLB in BABIP at .325, 5 full points ahead a team who plays in a big stadium at 5000 feet altitude. There definitely could be some regression there. The White Sox also had the second worst walk rate in MLB; only Detroit was worse. Strikeout rate? Exact same story. Only Detroit hitters had a higher strikeout rate than the White Sox. 91 1/2 wins? There's only one way to play the White Sox and it isn't over. The market is pricing them as if the 2020 season was 162 games. Yes, they were good for 60 games. I'm not sure they would've sustained that over a full season. Their top 3 in the rotation (Giolito, Lynn, Keuchel) is solid. Cleveland has been undersold, IMO. They were 128-94 the last 2 years and now priced to be a .500 team? Yes, Lindor is a good player but I believe the linemaker has punished the Tribe too much (and been too kind to the Mets). Rosario and Gimenez both will contribute. Maybe not at Lindor's level, but LIndor wasn't all that good in 2020. They also add the other Rosario (Eddie) who will add some needed pop to the lineup. Carrasco was solid but he's also two years removed from lymphoma and north of 30 years old. Bieber is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. McKenzie has tremendous stuff. Plesac and Civale are serviceable. The Indians always seem to be able to produce starting pitchers. Of the teams in the Central, they would be the one I consider to bet over. Kansas City has added some veteran players. They were a terrible 27th in WRC+ in 2019 and improved a bit to 21st last year. Offensively, they've added Benintendi, Carlos Santana, and Michael Taylor. Keller has pitched well in his career, and he's a guy the analytics crowd hates because his low K numbers. They are counting big on two young arms in Singer and Bubic. Minor and Duffy are serviceable. Some improvement is expected, and it is being priced in. I would still lean over as I anticipate all the top 3 teams from 2020 to regress in win percentage. Detroit is young, rebuilding and still a mess. They are priced to be terrible so not much value in betting them under.
Regression is a big part of VALUIST's handicap.
I also liked the way VALUIST combined the 2019 and 2020 stats.
There's only one way to play the White Sox and it isn't over.
That's a funny line, VALUIST.
How does a 76-year-old manager (Tony LaRussa) collaborate with a bunch of young Latin stars in their 20's?
Will be fascinating to watch.
I also liked the way VALUIST combined the 2019 and 2020 stats.
There's only one way to play the White Sox and it isn't over.
That's a funny line, VALUIST.
How does a 76-year-old manager (Tony LaRussa) collaborate with a bunch of young Latin stars in their 20's?
Will be fascinating to watch.
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FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Hate to be opposite of Valuist here, but that is a very soft schedule. They also get the NL central in interleague.
boston massacre
EOG Master
White Sox Finished 35-25 Last Year.
They Played K.C. and Detroit A Total of 20 Games.
Went 18-2 in Those 20 Games.
They Played K.C. and Detroit A Total of 20 Games.
Went 18-2 in Those 20 Games.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Agree. Someone in the division has to win.
VegasVic
EOG Addicted
William Hill has 150 as action
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
The only logical way to do it.
Rough break for the White Sox:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...enez-miss-5-6-months-ruptured-pectoral-tendon
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id...enez-miss-5-6-months-ruptured-pectoral-tendon
Yesterday's "left shoulder discomfort" turned into today's "ruptured pectoral tendon."
Yikes!
10 years $320 million isn't enough for Lindor. I can't imagine this is good for the Mets. Cohen should stick to his guns. Lindor coming off a .258/.415/.750 slash line in a shortened 2020 season. Who is going to pay him more? Dodgers have Seager. Astros have Correa. Yankees have Torres. Red Sox have Bogaerts. Cubs have Baez for the time being but they aren't spending money in near term. And of course the Padres have Tatis. Can't see a small market team paying that kind of money.