2022

smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[200-222] -2.75

6/17/22 PFL
1*Parlay (Silveira/Wilkinson) -104 W
1*Alex Martinez +150
1*Raush Manfio +125
1*Natan Schulte Decision=No Action -165 No Action
0.25*Natan Schulte Round 3 +1600 L
0.5*Parlay (Akhmedov/Martinez) +200
 
smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[202-223] -1.25

6/17/22 PFL
1*Parlay (Silveira/Wilkinson) -104 W
1*Alex Martinez +150 W
1*Raush Manfio +125 L
1*Natan Schulte Decision=No Action -165 No Action
0.25*Natan Schulte Round 3 +1600 L
0.5*Parlay (Akhmedov/Martinez) +200 W


MLB
[137-142] -26.61
BS Count [6-6] -1.91

3*Over 7.5 TEX/DET -120 L
2*Reds 1st 5 -130 L
2*BoSox -115 W
2*Jays -101 L
1*Dodgers -275 L
3*Rays -138 L
1*Brewers -210 W
 
smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[202-223] -1.25

6/18/22
3*Joaquin Buckley +190
1.5*Joaquin Buckley +200
0.5*Joaquin Buckley in Rd3 or Decision +450
2*Guram Kutateladze +145
1.5*Julian Marquez +150
0.4*Julian Marquez ITD +275
0.1*Julian Marquez by Sub +900
1*Tony Kelley +250
1*Roman Dolidze +230
1*Jeremiah Wells Decision=No Action -200
 
smartz

smartz

2
Think Daukaus is rightufl favorite here but I think Dolidze has the superior grappling game. Daukaus could stay at range and pick him apart but in every fight he makes it pretty clear that standing is not his comfort zone. He will clinch/grapple even when winning standing and in doing so will take the fight right into Dolidzes wheelhouse. Expecting this to get grimey
 
smartz

smartz

2
Phil Hawes looks top 5 when he is right. But the only thing he is consistent at is being inconsistent. Gas tank is a huge weakness, guy has no chin as well. Winn extremely hard to put away and Winn is probably Hawes first opponent who has an edge in the wrestling department. If you look back at Hawes fights, he has been able to get out of trouble when getting rocked and/or gassing by planting his opponent on the mat and keeping him there. He won't have that luxury in this one if he gets hurt. Winn makes this one interesting.
 
smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[202-223] -1.25

6/18/22
3*Joaquin Buckley +190
1.5*Joaquin Buckley +200
0.5*Joaquin Buckley in Rd3 or Decision +450
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/De Paula) -165
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/GTD Ismagulov&Kutateladze) -140
2*Guram Kutateladze +145
1.5*Julian Marquez +150
0.4*Julian Marquez ITD +275
0.1*Julian Marquez by Sub +900
1*Tony Kelley +250
1*Roman Dolidze +230
1*Goes to Decision Daukaus/Dolidze -125
1*Jeremiah Wells Decision=No Action -200
1*Deron Winn +220
 
smartz

smartz

2
Small hedge. See almost no finishing equity from JJ here.

MMA
[202-223] -1.25

6/18/22
3*Joaquin Buckley +190
1.5*Joaquin Buckley +200
0.5*Joaquin Buckley in Rd3 or Decision +450
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/De Paula) -165
1*Gloria De Paula "Live" -210
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/GTD Ismagulov&Kutateladze) -140
2*Guram Kutateladze +145
2*Jeremiah Wells Decision=No Action -200
1.5*Julian Marquez +150
0.4*Julian Marquez ITD +275
0.1*Julian Marquez by Sub +900
1*Tony Kelley +250
1*Roman Dolidze +230
1*Goes to Decision Daukaus/Dolidze -125
1*Deron Winn +220
1*Fight DGTD Chavez/Ramos +120
1*Natalia Silva +200
0.5*Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision +105
 
smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[202-223] -1.25

6/18/22
3*Joaquin Buckley +190
1.5*Joaquin Buckley +200
0.5*Joaquin Buckley in Rd3 or Decision +450
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/De Paula) -165
1*Gloria De Paula "Live" -210
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/GTD Ismagulov&Kutateladze) -140
2*Guram Kutateladze +145
0.5*Guram Kutateladze by Decision +350
0.25*Guram Kutateladze by Split/Majority +1400
0.25*Damir Ismagulov by Split/Majority +600
1*Fight GTD Ismagulov/Kutateladze -200
2*Jeremiah Wells Decision=No Action -200
1.5*Julian Marquez +150
0.4*Julian Marquez ITD +275
0.1*Julian Marquez by Sub +900
1*Tony Kelley +250
1*Roman Dolidze +230
1*Goes to Decision Daukaus/Dolidze -125
1*Deron Winn +220
1*Fight DGTD Chavez/Ramos +120
1*Natalia Silva +200
0.5*Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision +105
1*Fight DGTD Marquez/Rodrigues -200
1*Parlay (Fight DGTD Marquez&Rodrigues/Buckley) +335
 
smartz

smartz

2
Feel like I got screwed on Kutateladze but big night.

MMA
[214-235] +11.82

6/18/22
3*Joaquin Buckley +190 W Closing Line: +185
1.5*Joaquin Buckley +200 W
0.5*Joaquin Buckley in Rd3 or Decision +450 W
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/De Paula) -165 L
1*Gloria De Paula "Live" -210 L
2.5*Parlay (Stamann/GTD Ismagulov&Kutateladze) -140 W Closing Line: -200
2*Guram Kutateladze +145 L Closing Line: +180
0.5*Guram Kutateladze by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350
0.25*Guram Kutateladze by Split/Majority +1400 L Closing Line: +1400
0.25*Damir Ismagulov by Split/Majority +600 W Closing Line: -200
1*Fight GTD Ismagulov/Kutateladze -200 W Closing Line: -200
2*Jeremiah Wells Decision=No Action -200 W Closing Line: -200
1.5*Julian Marquez +150 L Closing Line: +140
0.4*Julian Marquez ITD +275 L Closing Line: +250
0.1*Julian Marquez by Sub +900 L Closing Line: +800
1*Tony Kelley +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Roman Dolidze +230 W Closing Line: -200
1*Goes to Decision Daukaus/Dolidze -125 L Closing Line: -120
1*Deron Winn +220 L Closing Line: +220
1*Fight DGTD Chavez/Ramos +120 W Closing Line: -200
1*Natalia Silva +200 W Closing Line: -200
0.5*Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision +105 L Closing Line: +100
1*Fight DGTD Marquez/Rodrigues -200 W Closing Line: -200
1*Parlay (Fight DGTD Marquez&Rodrigues/Buckley) +335 W
 
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smartz

smartz

2
Degen shit. Need Kattar too

MMA
[214-223] +11.82

1*Fight DGTD Kattar/Emmett +100
 

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smartz

smartz

2
Loss every split decision tonight. hit my hedge at least
 

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smartz

smartz

2
MMA
[214-236] +10.82

6/25/22
2*Arman Tsrukyan -255
2*Sergey Morozov -140
1.5*Christo Giagos +200 (LBO)
1.5*Carlos Ulberg -120

7/2/22
3*Parlay (Erin Blanchfield W/Movsar Evloev W/Israel Adesanya) -111
2*Parlay (Tatsuro Taira W/Israel Adesanya) -170
2*Parlay (Colorado Av's W/Israel Adesanya) -118
2*Parlay (Celtics -140 W/Israel Adesanya -365) +118
1.5*Parlay (Brendan Allen W/Israel Adesanya) -112
1*Parlay (Jonathan Martinez W/Israel Adesanya) -118
5*Ian Garry -150
3*Sean O'Malley -250
1*Sean O'Malley -215
2*Jalin Turner -120

7/23/22
5*Curtis Blaydes -130
 
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smartz

smartz

2
Since April, I've been involved in 14 split decisions in UFC. I have won only 3 (Dern, Sterling, Esparza) and loss 11 of my last 12. Hopefully this evens out in the upcoming cards.
 
smartz

smartz

2
smartz said:
Since April, I've been involved in 14 split decisions in UFC. I have won only 3 (Dern, Sterling, Esparza) and loss 11 of my last 12. Hopefully this evens out in the upcoming cards.
Click to expand...
Results below. %'s indicate win probability based on fan scoring of bouts from mmadecisions.com. Based on %'s could reasonably be looking at a 9-5-1 rather than a 3-12
Not meant to make it a poor me post but wondering if decreasing risk or laying off the bet entirely might be the move going forward if you were to believe the fight goes the distance with how unpredictable the judging is currently.

Edit:
Added media score % as well to the right of /

6/18
Calvin Kattar L 80%/74%
Guram Kutateladze L 57%/73%
Gloria De Paula L 56%/54%

6/11
Taila Santos L 46%/30%
Seung Woo Choi L 6%/0%

6/4
Alex Da Silva L 7%/0% but 69% scored it a draw with the point deduction. 40% media scored draw
Zhalgas Zhumagulov L 66%/92%

5/21
Holly Holm L 78%/90%
Santiago Ponzinibbio L 35%/40%

5/14
Amanda Ribas L 63%/13%

5/7
Esparza W 52%/61% 23% scored as draw/5%
Khaos Williams L 43%/11%
Kleydson Rodrigues L 80%/79% 21% media scored a draw

4/9
Sterling W 40%/61% 14% scored draw/28% scored draw
Dern W 27%/39%
 
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