2025 Kentucky Derby…
- Thread starter Viejo Dinosaur
- Start date
dfish
EOG Addicted
Taking a lot of money , if he can run in straight line it may be smart money …idk
Sandman was so overbet in the win pool, it appeared to create inefficiencies in the exotics. A 9/1 over a 3/1 in a 19 horse field? Exacta should be a solid 40/1ish. The tri should've paid considerably more than it did. But the win pool wasn't efficient, and those inefficiencies weren't in the exotics. We saw the will-pays for the Oaks/Derby daily double and Sovereignty was the 2nd lowest; much lower than Sandman.
BTW did anyone see the KY Oaks? Browns coach Stefanski's dad's horse ran 2nd at 40/1.
BTW did anyone see the KY Oaks? Browns coach Stefanski's dad's horse ran 2nd at 40/1.
Depressing Tri payout
But realistically, probably the 3 best horses going in. Baeza off a 0 in last, Journalism a minus 0.2 and a 1.2 in his last 2, and Sovereignty 1.3s in his last 2. I guess Burnham Square a slight bit ahead of Sovereignty at 1.1.
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Nice….another winning Derby for you….
Ouch. Trouble changing leads and another Tri with field size a bit disappointing, even with fav running him down.
Top 3 all ran well, earning Beyers of 100 of more. But I agree with Matthew DeSantis from NYRA Bets; the fact Owen the Almighty hung on for 5th despite staggering thru the entire length of the stretch is an indictment of all the horses who finished 6th thru 19th.
And Churchill Downs needs to amend their foolish rule. Baeza was penalized for the field size of the Santa Anita Derby while horses from weak preps like the Virginia Derby and Jeff Ruby Stakes were not. I don't expect CDI to make a change because they are too stubborn.
And Churchill Downs needs to amend their foolish rule. Baeza was penalized for the field size of the Santa Anita Derby while horses from weak preps like the Virginia Derby and Jeff Ruby Stakes were not. I don't expect CDI to make a change because they are too stubborn.
Goldberg died in 2022.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Forgot that, damn vax.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Why?
Mott doesn’t like to have his races two weeks apart. Actually it isn’t just Mott; trainers of most stakes horses tend to space the races a good month apart.
Heim, the Derby track was sloppy.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Then they need to expand the time frames otherwise TC is out.
I expect that to happen. I can see 3 weeks between Derby and Preakness, and 4 weeks Preakness to Belmont.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Ridiculous, horses have not grown weaker just because people have. It's been this way for 100 years.
IMO they should take back most of the derby money if a trainer wont send the derby winner to the preakness without cause.
That may not be true. Years of Lasix use and other medications have had an effect on the breed as a whole. All one has to do is look at the Beyer numbers since they started getting published in the early 90s. As a group, they’ve clearly gotten slower. And the training methods have changed over the years. When one sees the Thorograph charts and can see horses best figures occur when there is considerable time between races, it changes the thinking. Horses cost plenty on a daily basis. Can’t afford to waste races when they aren’t able to fire.
mr merlin
EOG Master
I recall going to canterbury downs back in the day and the same claimers and even allowance horses would run once/week or perhaps 10 days, if it was good enough for my favorite horse Dr Coercion it's good enough for Sovereignty.
How many years ago? And what was Dr. Coercion, a low level claimer? Bill Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer; if he feels two weeks isn’t enough for his horse, I believe him. He knows his horses better than you or I.
mr merlin
EOG Master
That was in the 80's, the good dr was a maybe a $6000 claimer(back then it was not bargain basement), I made some money on the good Dr. he was one of those horses that if he gets the lead he'll win, if there's a speed horse ahead of him he'd give up.
I dont care about this Mott guy except for the fact that racing is dying - the triple crown races/race is about the only thing that keeps interest. If sovereinghty would at least show up in the preakness it would draw huge interest(as it should), now it'll be just another race that's on TV.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Saw where all horses that went 2025 KD are descendants of Secretariat.
I don't disagree the sport is in trouble. The trouble got a lot worse with the legalization of sports betting.
Heim
EOG Master
Lol for fining Alvarado $62,000 for over whipping Sovereignty.
He whipped the the horse 8x over the permitted 6.
I get the intent of the rule and Alvarado is a multiple offender but this looks like a money grab and to appease the 'no cruelty to animal' activetes on the biggest stage.
He whipped the the horse 8x over the permitted 6.
I get the intent of the rule and Alvarado is a multiple offender but this looks like a money grab and to appease the 'no cruelty to animal' activetes on the biggest stage.
Yup ridiculous if my dominatrix used that thing my nipples wouldn't even get hardLol for fining Alvarado $62,000 for over whipping Sovereignty.
He whipped the the horse 8x over the permitted 6.
I get the intent of the rule and Alvarado is a multiple offender but this looks like a money grab and to appease the 'no cruelty to animal' activetes on the biggest stage.
hopefully the owners pay it for him