WildBill
2
So I had an interesting discussion with a guy who serves as something of a data scientist at MGM corporate this afternoon. He's got a business degree but he's very math wonky and believes every bit of gambling math is set in stone. So the discussion got around to sports betting. I told him I know the standard math is you need 52.38% winners on 11/10 to "win" but that I don't think that applies for the savvy bettor. For the house is may or may not, depending on how well they set their lines and how sharp their bettors are. He totally disagrees, the math is the math. He said if you ran queries on their sports events that had 11/10 odds the net hold is nearly exactly the 4.55% they expect, its only about 20 basis points low were his words. So they are holding 4.35% is what I assume and he just assumes as time goes on they will get closer to 4.55%. He feels like bettors who think they can get away with less are fooling themselves because even if I switch from book to book, the odds reflect an inherent house edge that I have to beat.
But then the theory question I have that is what if as in my situation, I have 14 sports books to bet into, including some offshores that have slightly different lines? I always shop for best price so do I still need to hit 52.38%? Like I told him today, I bet Arizona +118 at Superbook when almost everyone else was giving between +100 and +105. St Louis at most books was around -120 to -125. Isn't my math in this case like betting into a 2-cent line? He said the math is the math, that I better pick winners at effectively 52.38% or maybe in hockey 51.2% since Superbook uses a dime line on NHL.
What do others think? What effective percentage do I have to hit if I'm betting games (not doing arbs) and always shooting for the best number? Or is the math set in stone? My thought is this guy's thoughts are why casinos sometimes do get beaten and why they hate winners because it ruins their story of we'll make this set percentage or else every year.
But then the theory question I have that is what if as in my situation, I have 14 sports books to bet into, including some offshores that have slightly different lines? I always shop for best price so do I still need to hit 52.38%? Like I told him today, I bet Arizona +118 at Superbook when almost everyone else was giving between +100 and +105. St Louis at most books was around -120 to -125. Isn't my math in this case like betting into a 2-cent line? He said the math is the math, that I better pick winners at effectively 52.38% or maybe in hockey 51.2% since Superbook uses a dime line on NHL.
What do others think? What effective percentage do I have to hit if I'm betting games (not doing arbs) and always shooting for the best number? Or is the math set in stone? My thought is this guy's thoughts are why casinos sometimes do get beaten and why they hate winners because it ruins their story of we'll make this set percentage or else every year.