ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#3
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

Tampa Bay Downs...Fourth race...#2 Naifah.

ALABAMA DAVE offered trifecta combinations in the fourth race using #2 Naifah and #3 Mama Trace.
 
#4
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

Enjoyed the show. He down played the jockey on his pick a bit. Angel Cruz is definitely an up and comer who won a turf stake recently at Kee. Gave a real patient ride for a no name guy at an ultra competitive meet. I'm gonna mix in the O'Connell horse and try and enhance the price. Good luck and thanks for the show.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#6
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

The horse is 7/5 ML and probably will be odds-on so obviously should win the race, but theses types are terrible wagers. Regardless of what happens in this race, these are the types of favorites you try and avoid. She's failed at 3/5 in her last 2 races while competitive and now dropped.

From the show:

"think she moves forward off those races"

That comment obviously a direct contradiction to a trainer that drops from Stakes to Mdn32K to Mdnclm32K and in for a $16K purse. If he thinks the horse is moving forward, she's not entered in this race.

Motion has -.75 ROI dropping to maiden claiming

This horse should win the race, but in the long run you're better off avoiding these wagers.
 
#10
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

The horse is 7/5 ML and probably will be odds-on so obviously should win the race, but theses types are terrible wagers. Regardless of what happens in this race, these are the types of favorites you try and avoid. She's failed at 3/5 in her last 2 races while competitive and now dropped.

From the show:

"think she moves forward off those races"

That comment obviously a direct contradiction to a trainer that drops from Stakes to Mdn32K to Mdnclm32K and in for a $16K purse. If he thinks the horse is moving forward, she's not entered in this race.

Motion has -.75 ROI dropping to maiden claiming

This horse should win the race, but in the long run you're better off avoiding these wagers.
Great take on the horse/race/chalk wagering...............
 
#12
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

even money2 yo horse race where like anything can happen in a horse race,more so with 2yo
ok here we go
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#18
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

ALABAMA DAVE should have been involved in the superfecta pool.

Woulda, coulda, shoulda...
 
#22
Re: ALABAMA DAVE recommends a horse at Tampa Bay Downs

show was a very -EV bet here with 50% of the pool on the chalk. Worst case scenario, IMO.

I did not bet this race
 
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