Anyone subscribe to "All 22"? (NFL Films)

[svbettor]

http://www.nfl.com/coachesfilm

This is where you can see the coaches film on all 22 players. Anyone subscribe?

 

[Squarepants]

I'm pretty sure that that's been one of the view options in my annual NFL game-replay package. But I have been back working the past couple of seasons, so I really haven't examined what I have in that subscription very closely lately on the fly.

Recall looking at the all 22 view out of curiosity a couple of years or so back, but just the plain broadcast replay has sufficed for my purposes. And with me being back at work, I rarely have time lately to review even the broadcast replays in season.

Would be a decent hook for subscribers if I were a tout to say that I broke down the coaches tapes in my analysis. I remember that big jock-looking tout that went to prison implying while on one of John Kelly's shows that he watched "game film." But it was clear to me at least from John's follow up questions that the guy was just watching the broadcast feed replays. And he of course turned out to be a total scumbag sleaze (I know, "shocking"), so I'm even more sure that that was all that he was actually talking about, although he implied more.

But, for my present purposes, I don't have to get that wonky in film review to have decent success as a handicapper rather than (for marketing purposes as) a tout. And there's resources like Pro Football Focus where people do all that film review and break down specific position issues, if you want/need to get that far down into something that particular in your handicapping analysis. I do value any insightful analysis that can give me a good idea of what to expect in the trenches in a coming game, taking into account individual matchups, scheme, and injuries. But if I can reliably get that in quality writing without having to pore over a bunch of film, I'd rather do it that way especially given the limited time in season.

The next time that I'm retired from the day job, I'll maybe look more into the all 22 view, maybe during an off-season review, as I'm seeking to broaden out what I'm doing, and maybe while assessing the potential impact of certain off-season personnel changes.

But, for me, there is so much potential information available about the NFL -- especially in season -- that a large part of the challenge is culling down what you look at (especially when also working). So I haven't added all 22 review to that in-season regular weekly to-do list at least as yet.

 

[Squarepants]

It is so nice to have a thread about sports and sports betting, svb.

In that vein, I've really enjoyed the VSiN broadcasts on SiriusXM the times that I've been in the truck lately. They've done very well providing quality content in a situation where you might think that there would be little worthwhile to talk about. And with the other major sports being shelved for the moment, they have been talking about the NFL more than they might otherwise at this time of year. Which of course is fine by me in particular, because that's the sport I do as a sports bettor. But, anyway, have been meaning to compliment their guys directly the next time that I run into them around town (well, lockdown permitting).

 

[svbettor]

Props to you and your win in the supercontest. I am trying to do work and ask questions during this downtime especially the modeling I do.

I intend to start threads to engage people and answer some of my own personal questions.

 

[svbettor]

I'm pretty sure that that's been one of the view options in my annual NFL game-replay package. But I have been back working the past couple of seasons, so I really haven't examined what I have in that subscription very closely lately on the fly.

Recall looking at the all 22 view out of curiosity a couple of years or so back, but just the plain broadcast replay has sufficed for my purposes. And with me being back at work, I rarely have time lately to review even the broadcast replays in season.

Would be a decent hook for subscribers if I were a tout to say that I broke down the coaches tapes in my analysis. I remember that big jock-looking tout that went to prison implying while on one of John Kelly's shows that he watched "game film." But it was clear to me at least from John's follow up questions that the guy was just watching the broadcast feed replays. And he of course turned out to be a total scumbag sleaze (I know, "shocking"), so I'm even more sure that that was all that he was actually talking about, although he implied more.

But, for my present purposes, I don't have to get that wonky in film review to have decent success as a handicapper rather than (for marketing purposes as) a tout. And there's resources like Pro Football Focus where people do all that film review and break down specific position issues, if you want/need to get that far down into something that particular in your handicapping analysis. I do value any insightful analysis that can give me a good idea of what to expect in the trenches in a coming game, taking into account individual matchups, scheme, and injuries. But if I can reliably get that in quality writing without having to pore over a bunch of film, I'd rather do it that way especially given the limited time in season.

The next time that I'm retired from the day job, I'll maybe look more into the all 22 view, maybe during an off-season review, as I'm seeking to broaden out what I'm doing, and maybe while assessing the potential impact of certain off-season personnel changes.

But, for me, there is so much potential information available about the NFL -- especially in season -- that a large part of the challenge is culling down what you look at (especially when also working). So I haven't added all 22 review to that in-season regular weekly to-do list at least as yet.

During the lock you could have reviewed some games before going back to work. I always believe that Qualitative + Quantitative = more winners. This is what I do in CFB. There is even an All 22 film for the CFB but it is only available to coaches; I think?

 

[Squarepants]

Thanks . . . like I say, I'm glad you're trying to generate actual sports/sports betting discussion. VSiN's recent coverage is testament that there can be plenty of meaningful discussion of those topics -- which of course should be central here at EOG -- without 24/7 vitriolic political discussion, in thread after thread after . . . .

Yeah, I guess one thing about getting down so deep into analysis of coaches game film is that you still have to be able to successfully project what adjustments that team might make and that their upcoming opponent also might make that might fundamentally impact, undercut, etc. the insights that you might draw from the coaches film looking backward.

For example, IIRC, Devante Adams went out in the third quarter of a game this past season, and the GB offense ground to a halt thereafter within that game. However, their offense adjusted in ensuing games such that that fourth quarter ineffectiveness did not carry over into the next few games without Adams. In fact, the GB offense adjusted so well that they had trouble hitting on all cylinders initially once they had Adams back. It was like the adjustment back to Adams was in a sense harder to take in stride than the adjustment to being without Adams, at least after that one quarter in the game where he initially went down.

So there's a lot of art involved in drawing something beneficial from film review, and the to an extent dumbed-down -- or at least not that detailed -- analysis that I've had to do these past couple of seasons makes it so that I don't even attempt to get that bottom up specific rather than top down general in my analysis.

But all 22 views is something that I want to take a deeper look at once I start an offseason again where I'm not lugging around the ball and chain of a day job. For me, that's where the truly effective preparation starts for the next season, in January during the playoffs of the current season. I could work the whole year around on the NFL, and it's always a scramble to try and get down my NFL to-do list each offseason before the bullets start flying again in Week 1 and we're on the clock again for 17 (soon to be 18 post-apocalypse) weeks straight.

(And during the lockdown, I'm teleworking -- a facility not everyone who at least previous to this had a job can do, and I'm grateful for that -- so there's no added time opening up for me, just restrictions on being able to at least properly leave the house when I'm not teleworking.)

 

[Squarepants]

Recalling those GB games with a bit more particularity here this morning over coffee, IIRC, GB's offense still kept moving in the fourth quarter after Adams went down, but they would grind to that halt as they approached or were in the red zone, where of course it really matters.

IIRC, that red zone difficulty didn't carry forward into following games without Adams.

As I say, one has to be able to project forward how both the team and their opponent will adjust their scheme in coming games.

You have fairly sizeable coaching staffs on each one of the 32 teams all working literally night and day just to out-scheme and out-adjust their coming week's respective opponents -- again just focusing on that one opponent that week.

With the bullets flying, I've got to make that same assessment -- as to possible scheme adjustments that might counteract what I see on the coaches film, whether or not the coaching staff might actually do what I think might be effective (some staffs are better than others), and whether the opponent might successfully counteract that -- instead for up to all 32 teams (depending on byes), and I'm just one guy. That's a tall order just in terms of time applied to do it well across the whole board.

So I tend to look for more efficient means to get a betting edge, with varying levels of success over the years. Part of my calculus in approaching each NFL season is trying to come up with a potentially successful strategy that is feasible in terms of the really limited time that you actually have within a week in season. Necessarily, one must cull down inputs, in a situation where there is an ocean of information, etc. that you could look at each week.