Baltimore/Tennessee

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
So in the past year, they've met twice. Tennessee won both times, and Henry dominated the Ravens D. Doesn't Baltimore HAVE to put 7-8 in the box to stop Henry and dare Tannehill to beat them? I would be inclined to bet Over on Tannehill pass attempts. As for the Ravens O, they are much better at run blocking than pass blocking. They are great at jumping on a weaker team and running all over them and Lamar throws much better when the other D fears him running. When they trail? We know he's not a dropback passer. The Titans adjusted well to Lamar running; they were torched for 143 yards on 20 attempts by Jackson in the playoffs last year, but held him to just 51 on 13 carries earlier this season. In that playoff game last year, Jackson not only had 20 carries but 59 pass attempts. I'd be inclined to go under on JJ Dobbins' rush yards (Bovada listed at 70 1/2). Jackson has to have a big game running for Balt to win; Dobbins likely to split some carries with Gus Edwards. And if Balt is behind, it will mean more pass attempts for Lamar.

Tenn has been a dominant Over team; they can make any game go over. But can you bet over 54 1/2 when the projected pass attempts by both QBs figures to be under 60? I don't think I can.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#2
6 1/2 TDs Under -130. The two biggest offensive weapons? Henry running the ball and Lamar running the ball. Doesn't lend itself to big, long yardage quick scores.
 

Jammer

EOG Dedicated
#3
Tennessee's defense gives up 400 yards a game, and they have the 3rd worst pass defense. In a must win game last week, they allowed the Texans to score on their last 8 possessions. Can you image what Lamar is going to do against them. I think Balt gets out to a lead, and makes Tannehill throw more that he wants to.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#4
Tennessee's defense gives up 400 yards a game, and they have the 3rd worst pass defense. In a must win game last week, they allowed the Texans to score on their last 8 possessions. Can you image what Lamar is going to do against them. I think Balt gets out to a lead, and makes Tannehill throw more that he wants to.
I can't argue that. But who's a better pure passer, Watson or Lamar? It's not even close. If Balt does open up a 10 point lead, it will be difficult for Tenn to catch up.

As for the Tenn pass D, its not good, but I don't see it as 3rd worst. In terms of QB efficiency, there's 8 that are worse. IMO QB rating against a much better metric than passing yardage allowed.
 
#5
If you're Baltimore, there is absolutely no doubt I'm forcing Tannehill to beat me. I'm not letting Henry dictate again and again. Enough. Make the pass homie. If we get sliced on a 50 yard throw Tannehill made so be it.
 
#7
last year does not count . Played one time this year.. tenn won by 6 in balt. big deal. Was Balt full squad ? NOPE


It is called revenge
lay it
 
#8
I like Tenn to the over

Not a believer in LJ as a legitimate QB and see him in the same vein as an up tempo NBA offense that gets slowed down and doesn’t work in the playoffs
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#9
last year does not count . Played one time this year.. tenn won by 6 in balt. big deal. Was Balt full squad ? NOPE


It is called revenge
lay it
Why are you so dismissive of last year's playoff game? It's mostly the same rosters. And to prove it wasn't a fluke, they beat em again this year. Jackson is going to have to prove he can win a playoff game, let alone one on the road.
 
#10
Why are you so dismissive of last year's playoff game? It's mostly the same rosters. And to prove it wasn't a fluke, they beat em again this year. Jackson is going to have to prove he can win a playoff game, let alone one on the road.


Tenn defense not as good.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
#13
Baltimore will stick to the game plan and use Lamar and Dobbins execution on the ground game. Jackson can also make the throws ws he needs to make to Brown to gain up a chunk of yardage. Henry is dangerous not only grinding out tough runs for big yardage, but also out in the flat. If the Ravens can dominate TOP then late oh Tannenbaum will be forced to change the dimension in the air where accuracy could either be efficient or an adventure. Tennessee's pass defense is at best subpar and I expect Lamar to not beat himself given more of a inauspicious comfort zone.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
#17
From Warren Sharp:

Baltimore's 20 drives v TEN in regulation these last 2 games: only 3 punts, 8 turnovers (including downs), 8 red zone trips, only 2/8 TD's
 
#25
Lucky as hell at end of quarter for Lamar with that on the run completion. That completely changes the game. Tennessee would have forced a punt and gotten ball back again..
 
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