Belmont Day thread

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
Normally Belmont Day is one of the best betting days of the year. It's a good, although not great, card. Plenty of stakes but some of the fields on the small side. Just looking at the card now.

FWIW, Hidden Scroll, who is running in the Jaipur, dumped his rider last time out, his first race ever on grass. For those that saw the race, he dumped Johnny V shortly after the start, collected himself, ran off and got the lead fairly easily, although benefitting from a 115 pound break in the weights. Now if he had finished in the money, it wouldn't have counted as a horse has to have the rider on throughout. Hidden Scroll ended up finishing dead last despite the 115 lb weight break. Granted, he was a bit rank, and cutting back to 6 furlongs should help, but if one finishes dead last with a 115 lb weight advantage, I have to assume he's not a fan of turf.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#2
As for the Jaipur, race 9, I just watched a replay of the Daytona Stakes, run May 23 at Santa Anita. Texas Wedge and Stubbins both were in that race, both finished within a length of the winner, and both have flown to New York for the Jaipur. Stubbins took the easier route, saving much of the ground. Texas Wedge was 4 wide on the turn. According to the Trakus chart, Texas Wedge traveled 22 feet further than Stubbins. Oleksandra, another SoCal ship in, raced the same distance at SA two days earlier, with almost identical fractional times. But visually Oleksandra didn't impress me, saving ground on the turn, gettling clear in the stretch, and despite the narrow losing margin of a half length, never was really a threat to win. But she does have a great record (4 wins in 6 races) when Rosario rides her.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#4
Here's UK bookmakers odds on the Belmont.

1 Tap it to Win 7/1
2 Sole Volante 6/1
3 Max Player 20/1
4 Modernist 20/1
5 Farmington Rd 25/1
6 Fore Left 25/1
7 Jungle Run 50/1
8 Tiz the Law 4/5
9 Dr Post 7/1
10 Pneumatic 12/1

The UK books do a great job with odds on turf racing. Their odds for dirt racing usually not as good. Tiz the Law should be favored, but maybe closer to 8/5, IMO. Sole Volante,, Dr Post , Tap it to Win and Pneumatic all could be a little bit lower odds by post time.
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
#5
I do think tap to win will be 2nd choice 9-2 or 5-1 when the speed cappers get in depending on how track is playing today and tomorrow.

tiz the law will be 3-5! trust me
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#6
Back to the Jaipur, race 9, looking at the lifetime pps of Pure Sensation. He won this same race....in 2016. He is 4 for 4 lifetime on either yielding or soft turf.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#7
Gamine is the early 1/1 favorite for the Acorn. What isn't shown in the pps, is that she tested positive, along with stablemate Charlatan, for lidocaine following her win at Oaklawn.
 
#8
I don’t mind White Flag in R9.

Clearly 6F is optimal distance for that horse, and Alvarado/Clement are on a tear.

Think that’s a wide open race though, with 2/3/4/5/6/7 all being possibilities.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#9
I don’t mind White Flag in R9.

Clearly 6F is optimal distance for that horse, and Alvarado/Clement are on a tear.

Think that’s a wide open race though, with 2/3/4/5/6/7 all being possibilities.
I agree on White Flag. I'm against Hidden Scroll and Stubbins and probably Pure Sensation as well, unless turf is soft. It also should be pointed out Rosario was aboard White Flag in 8 of his last 12 races and he's opting for Oleksandra.
 
#11
I agree on White Flag. I'm against Hidden Scroll and Stubbins and probably Pure Sensation as well, unless turf is soft. It also should be pointed out Rosario was aboard White Flag in 8 of his last 12 races and he's opting for Oleksandra.
really good point and angle I love. I also think Rosario is best in the game right now so I will be on the 2 for sure
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#12
I do think tap to win will be 2nd choice 9-2 or 5-1 when the speed cappers get in depending on how track is playing today and tomorrow.

tiz the law will be 3-5! trust me
Tiz the Law COULD be 3-5.....but he shouldn't be. 3-2 or 7/5ish. Maybe even 6/5. There's a few others in the race that can run. Gotta believe Johnny V is on a clear lead on the far turn.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#13
More than seven hours of horse racing action today at Belmont Park.

First post for the 12-race card is set for 11:45 a.m. ET.

Final race post time is scheduled for 6:49 p.m. ET.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#18
Here's my odds on the Belmont:

1 Tap it to Win 9-2
2 Solo Volante 5-1
3 Max Player 8-1
4 Modernist 20-1
5 Farmington Rd 20-1
6 Fore Left 50-1
7 Jungle Runner 99-1
8 Tiz the Law 6-5
9 Dr Post 12-1
10 Pneumatic 7-1
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#20
Channel Time

FS1 11:30 am-2 pm

FS2 2-3 pm, 6-7 pm

NBC 2:45-6 pm

MSG+ 11:30 am-3 pm, 6-7 pm

FS Regionals 1-3 pm, 6-7 pm


All times are Eastern and details are subject to change.
 
Last edited:
#27
Normally Belmont Day is one of the best betting days of the year. It's a good, although not great, card. Plenty of stakes but some of the fields on the small side. Just looking at the card now.

FWIW, Hidden Scroll, who is running in the Jaipur, dumped his rider last time out, his first race ever on grass. For those that saw the race, he dumped Johnny V shortly after the start, collected himself, ran off and got the lead fairly easily, although benefitting from a 115 pound break in the weights. Now if he had finished in the money, it wouldn't have counted as a horse has to have the rider on throughout. Hidden Scroll ended up finishing dead last despite the 115 lb weight break. Granted, he was a bit rank, and cutting back to 6 furlongs should help, but if one finishes dead last with a 115 lb weight advantage, I have to assume he's not a fan of turf.


They Knocked Off 3/8 of a Mile in The Usual 1 1/2 Mile Run in The Belmont Stakes.

A FAKE Belmont Stakes Race.

Big Asterisk for The Winner.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#35
Gamine just ran the fastest Acorn in Belmont Park history.

The mile time was 1:32.55.
This wasn't only the fastest Acorn ever. It was faster than any Metropolitan Mile race ever run at Belmont. Kelso, Forego, Gulch (twice), Holy Bull and Ghostzapper all won Met Miles at Belmont. The surface was lightning quick, but sub 1:33?

I wouldn't rush to bet a futures in the KY Oaks. WIth Nadal and Charlatan out, Baffert has to consider running her against males in the Derby.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#36
Thanks for sharing, V.

Contenders chasing Gamine were exhausted in the stretch drive.

Longshots Pleasant Orb (39/1) and Water White (33/1) finished second and third.

I rarely bet an AB or AC exacta.

Those exacta combinations, the favorite over the second and third choices, are typically overbet.

Instead, I search for opportunities to bet against the second and third-best horses in the race featuring a legitimate odds-on choice.

Often times, the second-best horse in the race blows its best chance to finish second by trying to defeat a dominating favorite.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#37
Total handle on Belmont Stakes Day was $67.7 million.

Not bad considering the circumstances.

No betting windows were open at Belmont Park where fewer than 100 essential workers were in attendance.

Last year's Belmont Stakes handle was a record $102 million for a year without a Triple Crown candidate.
 
#38
Both surfaces seemed a bit speedy but cant take away from what she did. At the half thought " wow this could be impressive"...didnt expect to see what I saw down the lane.
Check out Trakus for the race...kind of obscene
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#39
NYRA track announcer John Imbriale had Gamine winning by 15 lengths.

Trakus called the final margin 17 1/4 lengths.

DRF charts report an 18 3/4-length victory for Gamine in the Acorn Stakes.

Who do you believe?
 
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