Betting 6% on one play

Betting 6% on one play


  • Total voters
    41
  • Poll closed .
#1
Identity says it is not reckless to bet 6% on one play. I say over 2% is starting to get dangerous and 4% will lead eventually to a crippling blow to your bankroll. To me 6% is certain disaster when just a few bets go awry. What do you all think?
 

Towelie

EOG Enthusiast
#4
Re: Betting 6% on one play

If you are sharp and spot a line that is quite a few points off and you know it is going to move there is no real % to limit yourself to. You leave yourself with options to buy back and go for middles, while still leaving a strong position on the +EV side.

Also depends on your bankroll size. A person with a smaller bankroll that could be easily recouped or reloaded can afford to be much more aggressive in his betting to try and build up a decent amount to play with. Nothing wrong with betting 6% or more of your bank in the early stages hoping to hit a positive run of variance if the bankroll is able to be recouped in the future.
 
#5
Re: Betting 6% on one play

The correct answer for most people is obviously don't bet over 2%. I do think some people can get away with betting in a manner that others can't though. All depends on the person. Then again I also believe it matters how many plays a person makes. I make a relatively low amount of plays compared to most but with a higher $$$$ figure than most. If you make a lot of plays though I can see someone going broke real quick obviously.
 
#6
Re: Betting 6% on one play

I guess it depends on how often you do it.

Are you doing it once per year?
Are you doing it once per month?
Are you doing it once per week?
Are you doing it three times a day?

I don't see a problem with doing it if you're weighing the risk vs. reward and still think it's worth it.

Isnt' that all we're doing anyway? Taking a risk that we think is worth the reward based on what we know about a given situation?
 
#9
Re: Betting 6% on one play

lol

wildbill - i very infrequently post 6% plays, or even 5% plays. out of 100 or so tracked plays, i might have 4 6% plays. that's not much. i frequently have 2%-4% unit plays. that is how i play. we shall see if i go broke. right now, i am doing very well, sir. best wishes...ID
 

The General

Another Day, Another Dollar
#10
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Identity you have done Very well since I've known you back in 02. Do you ever lose? You are retired I am guessing.
 
#11
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Are you trolling for traffic? "Money management" is an excuse for losers to stay in action longer. Successful players are limited by market depth, not risk to their bankrolls.

What if you have a 6% edge due to a stale line?
What if The Shrink guarantees your Florida bet?
What if you lay -1000 or higher on a prop ("no overtime").
What if you can probably hedge later?
What if your recreational bankroll is 1% of your net worth?
 

kelp0027

EOG Dedicated
#12
Re: Betting 6% on one play

..

..As the puntor gains maturity..>>>

1. The importance of capital preservation increases; the understanding that a large loss hurts you (decreased wager size; increased risk of bankruptcy; psychological distress increases).. whilst the advantages of a huge score decreases..>> this can lead to wagering mistakes..>>

2. Fundamentally; most experienced sports wagerers start to scalp; play season -long over/under team wins; and other props; try to handicap off market sports or conferences; where an actual information; and possibly "feel" advantage can exist.

3. Betting 6% of br should only be done if scalp is highly likely.

jmho

gl

:cool:
 
#13
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Other than 10 to 15 people on here NO ONE that bets $200 on a game actually has a BR of $10K. All this 2% of BR talk is a bunch of crap.

99% of degenerates out that bet $200 on a game have a bankroll = about one weeks wages.
 

Cobbler

EOG Addicted
#14
Re: Betting 6% on one play

If you have full time job, why limit yourself to 2%? A guy that makes $1K a week with a couple of grand in the bank can bet $200 a game without much danger.

Someone who does it full time, however, is just begging to go broke if he consistently bets 4% of his bankroll on a game.
 
#15
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Wild Bill there is a silver lining in every cloud. As the self appointed-vicar of truth.logic and political correctness your criticism of my post did teach me to use the spell checker so thank you ! Money management is subjective it is comprised of math and intuitive feel. When I am gambling my 1st loss is my final loss of the week however when I am winning I tend to be geometric. In a business mode I try to watch events for 2-3 % of my bankroll.
 
#16
Re: Betting 6% on one play

6% is a stretch. My personal belief is that the most successful betters in the long run are those that find solid and consistent winning principles that allow for fairly consistent wager amounts of between 2-5% of their bankroll. The one unit>two unit>3 unit etc. thing eventually leads to disaster if one does this long enough. It is not uncommon to find folks that study the various sports accomplishing winning rates of 52-56% after they have sharpened their skills. Good capping skills along with searching out good values in the lines combined with sharp money management skills is my personal direction and where you will find most of the long term winners in online sports gambling. Certainly there are exceptions. But the odds are against those exceptions lasting in the long run. To me that is what Online sports gambling is all about...the long term. It is a way to invest money smartly to get the maximum results but without incurring any more risk than absolutely necessary to achieve those results.

Plus+Lines
 
#17
Re: Betting 6% on one play

This % of bankroll only applies to pros with no other income or those that want to play the whole year with a set amount that they are willing to lose.

Almost all the guys on this board can and will replenish there bankroll through other means such as a full time job. This means that % talk for most is skewed.
 
#18
Re: Betting 6% on one play

very true, raider. for me, i set aside x amount to play with during the year, and hence, the units are a % of that sum that is set aside. but i agree, if i lost 500 units, i would just replenish prolly. lol thankfully that has not happened....
 
#19
Re: Betting 6% on one play

<TABLE class=tborder id=post859593 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 0px solid; BORDER-TOP: #2b295e 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #2b295e 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #2b295e 1px solid">
09-10-07, 05:09 PM </TD><TD class=thead style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #2b295e 1px solid; FONT-WEIGHT: normal; BORDER-LEFT: #2b295e 0px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #2b295e 1px solid" align=right> #18 (permalink) </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 1px solid; BORDER-TOP: #2b295e 0px solid; BORDER-LEFT: #2b295e 1px solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: #2b295e 0px solid" width=175>IDENTITY<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_859593", true); </SCRIPT>
NFL Expert



Join Date: Aug 19, 2005
Posts: 7,618


</TD><TD class=alt1 id=td_post_859593 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #2b295e 1px solid">
Re: Betting 6% on one play
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>very true, raider. for me, i set aside x amount to play with during the year, and hence, the units are a % of that sum that is set aside. but i agree, if i lost 500 units, i would just replenish prolly. lol thankfully that has not happened....
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>




:party :party :party :party :party


ID's reloaded more times that Marshall Dillon and Clint Eastwood combined.
 
#20
Re: Betting 6% on one play

I agree most people are betting discretionary income. That is not however a bankroll. If you have a bankroll, something you manage and aim to grow over time then you must take preventive measures to protect it. If that is the case you should have at least 50 units based on making average bets of 1 unit.
 

Mr. NBA

EOG Dedicated
#27
Re: Betting 6% on one play

money management is the difference between pros and shmos. I was always taught to consider your starting amount as your bankroll at 100 percent. Say you start with 1000 bucks....1 unit (which is 1 percent) should equal a 10 bucks......with that said I fit into the shmo category....as I have way too many violent swings through out the year. My sister and bro law and good friend Tgunn (think he has registered here) manage their money much better than me and laugh their ass off when im on the coaster.:whatever: ......but when im hot im hot and man its fun to buy one of these with a great streak.



I bet a tad more than 4 percent during that streak:LMAO .
 
#28
Re: Betting 6% on one play

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead colSpan=2>09-10-07 09:14 PM</TD></TR><TR title="Post 859948" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>WildBill</TD><TD class=alt2>I agree most people are betting discretionary income. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

You mentioned bankroll and discretionary income but you forgot to mention fantasy money which is what I suspect ID is using. It bet almost 500 units on Sat.
 
#29
Re: Betting 6% on one play

ghostie bunker - it's KILLIN ya that i am crushin the man....lol...makes it even more satisfying!!! i know how badly ya want me to lose!!!! when i win it's like winning an extra dime!! LOL

:mutley
 
#30
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Did you win today? If so, congrats! If not, it doesn't really matter anyway, does it? You can't lose what you don't actually bet, can you? :+textinb3
 
#31
Re: Betting 6% on one play

lol if you think i post my plays and keep track for my health, that is your denial issue. lol this is all real or i would not post it. i put my own coin at risk so others who follow know that i am not just touting a pick. i am putting my own coin on it....i'm sorry it bothers u so.... lol
 
#32
Re: Betting 6% on one play

ID,

You keep using the word 'coin' in your posts in refering to what you win. Something tells me it's closer to the truth than you'd care to admit. I know you don't do this for your health. You do it for the attention. That's what attention whores do. That's why attention whores bump their winning threads and ignore their losing ones. Understand? Sound familiar? :LMAO
 
#34
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Big,

I'm aware of that. And you can lump them into ID's category also. The cappers I respect are the ones that keep a running total for a season, provide some insight into why they like a pick and then move on to next week. It's one long match, not a sprint.
 
#35
Re: Betting 6% on one play

Big,

I'm aware of that. And you can lump them into ID's category also. The cappers I respect are the ones that keep a running total for a season, provide some insight into why they like a pick and then move on to next week. It's one long match, not a sprint.
and how many do that?

i know of a few good ones but the majority dont:rolleyes:

seems you like single out ID all time JMO

continue on :cheers
 
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