BettorIQ

[GameBred]

Leave it to WazShady to take the best listen in Sports Investing, Dink, and turn it into a snooze fest.

Leave it to WazShady, in one of his recent podcasts about dispelling punting myths, to feed right into one while dispensing poor advice.

This guy is just unconscionable.

In his most recent, “Miseducation” video series, he's now preaching about line shopping and the long run value of a half-point. I've heard him say on his silly Tipster Podcast that losing a half-point here or a point there won’t matter much. I’ve heard him say it w/ my own ears.

WazShady, I know you're reading this, if the push rate on the "2" is three-percent, the value of going from +2 to +2' is not 11-cents, it’s about 6-cents. I was listening to your silliness in the background when you said, “11-cents,” and it stopped me in my tracks because it made zero sense, no pun intended.

THEREFORE:

+2’ -115 IS NOT BETTER THAN +2 -105.

You said that after you do this it for awhile you develop and intuitive sense for this stuff. I haven’t done the NFL forever and I intuitively knew this was craziness. How come you didn’t?

Get your shit together before you put out videos miseducating people. Your advice is going to get people killed.

You don’t care about educating people, this is all to drum up future sales because if you did care you wouldn’t be so fucking sloppy. You care about selling BettorIQ Subscriptions so people can sit back and enjoy the 100K winnings over 6 months (paraphrasing your “Infomercial,” words).

 

[John Kelly]

Uh oh.

 

[John Kelly]

That's 15 yards for UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS, tackling with the crown of the helmet below the belt.

 

[John Kelly]

Snoozefest?

I think WAZ in his professor's role played it too seriously.

He's a funny guy in "real life."

 

[GameBred]

Uh oh.

This is craziness, absolute insanity that a "professional" puts out a video with such nonsense.

How the fuck could he not hear himself and say, "This doesn't sound right." How is that even possible?

Besides a Rec Bet on I think the Broncos in the SB, I haven't bet the NFL in like 7 years and I immediately rewound the video to make sure I heard him right.

Snoozefest?

I think WAZ in his professor's role played it too seriously.

He's a funny guy in "real life."

Dink is thee best listen in Sports Investing but you would never know that from that episode.

 

[John Kelly]

Seems like WAZ is stuck in the middle of an artist/scientist conundrum.

I chuckled when he said, "The model works until it doesn't."

Okay.

 

[GameBred]

That's 15 yards for UNNECESSARY ROUGHNESS, tackling with the crown of the helmet below the belt.

NO! I refuse the penalty.

This guy is a Clown, talking about the value of line shopping and half-points from one side of his mouth and then about how giving up some line value is, "No big deal," from the other side of his mouth. The guy can't get his story straight because he doesn't play it straight and has situational ethics.

He then puts out a video talking about +2' -115 is better than +2 -105? Does that even sound right to you? Much less it being empirically false.

 

[GameBred]

Seems like WAZ is stuck in the middle of an artist/scientist conundrum.

I chuckled when he said, "The model works until it doesn't."

Okay.

I told him years ago, from what little he shared about his modeling parameters that I thought he was sailing too close to the wind.

 

[John Kelly]

One problem with analytics.

When the formulae become widely-publicized, they start to lose their impact.

Not only does the market absorb the information, but also the participants begin to "game the system."

Three quick examples: 1) Dr. Bob and his college football theories lost their effectiveness when revealed 2) When the Missouri Valley Conference figured out the RPI algorithm before any other college hoop conference and 3) When the NBA finally figured out Popovich and the Spurs were focused on corner 3's.

If you have an angle that works in the gambling arena or any other field, keep it to yourself.

 

[Almost Allright]

Spot on. I fell asleep trying to get through that clip with Dink. Dull city.

 

[John Kelly]

NO! I refuse the penalty.

This guy is a Clown, talking about the value of line shopping and half-points from one side of his mouth and then about how giving up some line value is, "No big deal," from the other side of his mouth. The guy can't get his story straight because he doesn't play it straight and has situational ethics.

He then puts out a video talking about +2' -115 is better than +2 -105? Does that even sound right to you? Much less it being empirically false.

The red challenge flag has been thrown.

Let's go to the videotape.

 

[John Kelly]

Spot on. I fell asleep trying to get through that clip with Dink. Dull city.

The verdict is in.

There is no penalty on the play.

 

[GameBred]

One problem with analytics.

When the formulae become widely-publicized, they start to lose their impact.

Not only does the market absorb the information, but also the participants begin to "game the system."

Three quick examples: 1) Dr. Bob and his college football theories lost their effectiveness when revealed 2) When the Missouri Valley Conference figured out the RPI algorithm before any other college hoop conference and 3) When the NBA finally figured out Popovich and the Spurs were focused on corner 3's.

Your model can change the environment in which it operates and the environment in which your model operates can also change.

For me, in regards to Waz's Model, what little I knew, and it's on here somewhere, i said to him that I thought he was sailing way too close to the wind.

 

[John Kelly]

Understood.

How far from the wind are you, GameBred?

 

[GameBred]

Spot on. I fell asleep trying to get through that clip with Dink. Dull city.

The "Q&A" was good, that's about the nicest thing I can say about it and there is no bigger fan of Dink, than me.

 

[GameBred]

Understood.

How far from the wind are you, GameBred?

I trade Concepts, not over-optimized models.

 

[John Kelly]

Got it.

 

[GameBred]

The verdict is in.

There is no penalty on the play.

I suppose I should thank you but a flag never should have been thrown to begin with.

 

[John Kelly]

None of the MLB teams are using widely-available numbers like FIP or XFIP.

The smart MLB teams have more detailed homemade formulas created by math guys who specialize in machine learning and predictive models.

They keep the good stuff to themselves.

 

[John Kelly]

I suppose I should thank you but a flag never should have been thrown to begin with.

Overzealous back judge.

 

[John Kelly]

I wonder if "spin rates" can be manipulated by young pitchers trying to make the big leagues.

Just like NFL prospects can be "workout warriors" or "combine freaks" by working exclusively on the league's unusual set of drills performed every February in Indianapolis.

 

[GameBred]

None of the MLB teams are using widely-available numbers like FIP or XFIP.

The smart MLB teams have more detailed homemade formulas created by math guys who specialize in machine learning and predictive models.

They keep the good stuff to themselves.

Conceptually, I know a shit ton about modeling, practically speaking, I have used Caveman Models in the past because I know what I don't know; there's alot of shit that goes into it and can go wrong.

Today, I use an unmodifed Poisson Model which is about as basic as it gets but I don't use that to trade, just to get some bearings,

 

[GameBred]

Overzealous back judge.

He's on probation, henceforth.

 

[GameBred]

I wonder if "spin rates" can be manipulated by young pitchers trying to make the big leagues.

Just like NFL prospects can be "workout warriors" or "combine freaks" by working exclusively on the league's unusual set of drills performed every February in Indianapolis.

I don't know much about this topic but if there is a way to game the system, people will try.

 

[GameBred]

It only took WazShady a week and 2 videos later but he finally corrected his mistake and thanked someone for emailing him. I'm calling BS, I believe he knew from this thread but wanted to deny Uncle Bred his moment in the sun Will I ever be famous, fellas?

We all can make silly math mistakes, my issue was the fact that he didn't realize how insane it sounded to say that the "2" was worth 11-cents despite his claim that you develop an intuitive feel for this stuff over the years (You do but you actually have to do the shit to develop it). It's been centuries since I bet the NFL and I knew, intuitively that was dead wrong. I didn't even know he made the math error until I watched the video a few hours later. I originally did a youtube-to-mp3 conversion and was listening to it w/ my media player in the background while trading Belarusian Football.. I was half paying attention and caught that.

I'm not ruling out that we have a Mole here at EOG who saw this thread and alerted WazShady but since sports investing is preety much dead, I think he had the time to view this thread. Maybe one day the truth will come out

 

[railbird]

Spot on. I fell asleep trying to get through that clip with Dink. Dull city.

every dink interview is the same, I only bet hockey and horse now. I was able to win in 1980, please attend by amature wrestling promotion. please dontate to my dying horses charity.

 

[GameBred]

every dink interview is the same, I only bet hockey and horse now. I was able to win in 1980, please attend by amature wrestling promotion. please dontate to my dying horses charity.

Are you the Mole?

Dink is a great listen, you just need a good host to lead.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

Does anybody know why Waz and ER haven't recorded any NFL podcasts at bettoriq since week 4 this year?

 

[pete mcmeat]

is erin rynning selling nba picks this season.....seems like bet-q aint selling....vip only or did he go rogue

 

[GameBred]

Does anybody know why Waz and ER haven't recorded any NFL podcasts at bettoriq since week 4 this year?

No idea. Sorry.

 

[GameBred]

is erin rynning selling nba picks this season.....seems like bet-q aint selling....vip only or did he go rogue

He's one of the few Tipsters I have some respect for or had. I haven't listened to him in many, many years but he did help me improve my fundamental game when I was betting.

 

[Woodrow Wilson]

I usually listened to the bettor iq NFL podcasts with Rynning featured. The time involved hasn't brought much revenue into their tout business.