Dabbled in these a bit 2-3 years ago. #'s got pretty sharp, but going to give it a go again.
Chronicles of Narnia
The screen count for Chronicles of Narnia is sitting at 3,616. First we'll use an easy ceiling on this one -- Harry Potter. Potter was much more popular, had much more marketing behind it, and had a much bigger following. No chance that Narnia comes anywhere near what Potter did opening weekend back in '01 -- so using Potter's PSA (per screen average) of ~$24,000 * 3,616 = $86.7 million.
The # most books are hanging is $63 million. At 3,616 screens that means we're looking at a PSA in the $17,422 range.
Historically, the only December openings to hit that were:
Lord of the Rings 2
Lord of the Rings 3
Historically, the only November openings to hit that were:
Harry Potter 1
Harry Potter 2
Harry Potter 3
The Incredibles ($17917)
Monsters, Inc ($19611)
Toy Story 2 ($17735)
The Grinch ($19703)
So we've got the Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter series', which we know are both much more popular than C.S. Lewis' books and potential movies. Next we have 3 Pixar animated features, which always have a wide audience.
Then we have The Grinch. This is the big question mark. Wasn't a big series, popular book, not animated. But it had a lot of things going for it. HUGE marketing blitz with many tie-ins, Christmas theme, book every kid and their parents knew, and above all else -- Jim Carrey, who is a box office goldmine.
Narnia has got some marketing push, but not near what The Grinch had. And with no big name stars supporting it, I just don't see it coming close to averaging what The Grinch did.
I think we'll see Chronicles of Narnia hover right around the $15,000 PSA mark and finsih up the weekend just above $50 million.
THE PLAY: UNDER 63 MILLION -105 (Olympic)
Chronicles of Narnia
The screen count for Chronicles of Narnia is sitting at 3,616. First we'll use an easy ceiling on this one -- Harry Potter. Potter was much more popular, had much more marketing behind it, and had a much bigger following. No chance that Narnia comes anywhere near what Potter did opening weekend back in '01 -- so using Potter's PSA (per screen average) of ~$24,000 * 3,616 = $86.7 million.
The # most books are hanging is $63 million. At 3,616 screens that means we're looking at a PSA in the $17,422 range.
Historically, the only December openings to hit that were:
Lord of the Rings 2
Lord of the Rings 3
Historically, the only November openings to hit that were:
Harry Potter 1
Harry Potter 2
Harry Potter 3
The Incredibles ($17917)
Monsters, Inc ($19611)
Toy Story 2 ($17735)
The Grinch ($19703)
So we've got the Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter series', which we know are both much more popular than C.S. Lewis' books and potential movies. Next we have 3 Pixar animated features, which always have a wide audience.
Then we have The Grinch. This is the big question mark. Wasn't a big series, popular book, not animated. But it had a lot of things going for it. HUGE marketing blitz with many tie-ins, Christmas theme, book every kid and their parents knew, and above all else -- Jim Carrey, who is a box office goldmine.
Narnia has got some marketing push, but not near what The Grinch had. And with no big name stars supporting it, I just don't see it coming close to averaging what The Grinch did.
I think we'll see Chronicles of Narnia hover right around the $15,000 PSA mark and finsih up the weekend just above $50 million.
THE PLAY: UNDER 63 MILLION -105 (Olympic)