Post your thoughts here. One of the best days of the year. So much once and twice a year type money in the pools. I'm concentrating strictly on the Saturday races. Will post one opinion here now:
BC Turf Santa Anita race 8 (Saturday). I like Onesto here. This isn't the most consistant horse but his best is very good. I was reading about him and some of his bad races can be forgiven due to either physical issues or soft turf, which he does not like. He was a Grade 1 winner as a 3 YO last year, then was narrowly beaten by Luxembourg in the Irish Champions stakes. But that was enough to get him bet to 11/1 in the 2022 Arc de Triomphe but the soft turf didn't suit him and he finished 10th, beaten 9 lengths.
He opened 2023 in a tough spot; he is a 1 1/4 mile to 1 1/2 mile horse and his 2023 opener was against Inspiral in a Grade 1 at a mile over soft ground. Inspiral will be one of the favorites in the Mile on Saturday. Still, Onesto ran 4th, beaten 3 1/2 at 28/1. Following another disappointing race in Ireland, he went to the Arc last month dismissed at 55/1. He ran a giant race, finishing a strong 3rd, beaten a nose for 2nd, at 55/1 behind unbeaten Ace Impact. I watched a replay of that race and the horse put in a tremendous closing run.
This horse is a great example of how soft grass can effect results. Many football handicappers dismiss rain as a factor. That might be true on artificial surfaces but NOT on natural grass. Onesto ran in the last 2 Arcs:
2022 running; winning time of 2:35 3/5 at Longchamp
2023 running: winning time of 2:25 2/5 at Longchamp
The turf at Longchamp was labelled "good to soft" on Oct 1, but that is highly questionable. The fact the race was run TEN FULL seconds faster than the 2022 running leads me to believe it was really firm.
BC Turf Santa Anita race 8 (Saturday). I like Onesto here. This isn't the most consistant horse but his best is very good. I was reading about him and some of his bad races can be forgiven due to either physical issues or soft turf, which he does not like. He was a Grade 1 winner as a 3 YO last year, then was narrowly beaten by Luxembourg in the Irish Champions stakes. But that was enough to get him bet to 11/1 in the 2022 Arc de Triomphe but the soft turf didn't suit him and he finished 10th, beaten 9 lengths.
He opened 2023 in a tough spot; he is a 1 1/4 mile to 1 1/2 mile horse and his 2023 opener was against Inspiral in a Grade 1 at a mile over soft ground. Inspiral will be one of the favorites in the Mile on Saturday. Still, Onesto ran 4th, beaten 3 1/2 at 28/1. Following another disappointing race in Ireland, he went to the Arc last month dismissed at 55/1. He ran a giant race, finishing a strong 3rd, beaten a nose for 2nd, at 55/1 behind unbeaten Ace Impact. I watched a replay of that race and the horse put in a tremendous closing run.
This horse is a great example of how soft grass can effect results. Many football handicappers dismiss rain as a factor. That might be true on artificial surfaces but NOT on natural grass. Onesto ran in the last 2 Arcs:
2022 running; winning time of 2:35 3/5 at Longchamp
2023 running: winning time of 2:25 2/5 at Longchamp
The turf at Longchamp was labelled "good to soft" on Oct 1, but that is highly questionable. The fact the race was run TEN FULL seconds faster than the 2022 running leads me to believe it was really firm.
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