Erie Pigskins
EOG Enthusiast
pretty much a must win and mayfield is out - a blessing in disguise. Keenum leads the team to victory tonight. Browns -1’ WA.
Browns tonight
- Thread starter Erie Pigskins
- Start date
blueline
EOG Master
Three dogs and one dawg. One bettor at DraftKings Sportsbook will become a loud and proud member of the Dawg Pound tonight because the Cleveland Browns are the last remaining leg of a four-team parlay that is worth over $1.3 million. The Browns moneyline at -130 is the swing game to see if this parlay that cost $30,000 will be worth seven figures or will be quite a story to tell.
Two NBA underdogs and a live moneyline bet Appalachian State came together to create this huge opportunity on Thursday Night Football. The Nuggets knocked off the Suns by 12, the Kings bested the Trail Blazers by three and App State did the same against Coastal Carolina, so this parlay is alive and well going into tonight’s NFL game.
The bet was placed on Wednesday night at 8:38 p.m. ET, so the bettor in question was already well aware that Case Keenum was getting the start for the Browns and the line had already dropped enough for Cleveland to be -130 to win the game outright.
Unlike most of the parlays that grab headlines, we’re not talking about a $10 parlay with 10 or more legs to cash a big ticket. This was a $30,000 wager, so we’re talking about a bettor that likely has the money to make a significant hedge in some capacity. The cash-out option from DraftKings was just over $650,000, so that would be one way to hedge. Another would be the Broncos at plus money on the moneyline.
Two NBA underdogs and a live moneyline bet Appalachian State came together to create this huge opportunity on Thursday Night Football. The Nuggets knocked off the Suns by 12, the Kings bested the Trail Blazers by three and App State did the same against Coastal Carolina, so this parlay is alive and well going into tonight’s NFL game.
The bet was placed on Wednesday night at 8:38 p.m. ET, so the bettor in question was already well aware that Case Keenum was getting the start for the Browns and the line had already dropped enough for Cleveland to be -130 to win the game outright.
Unlike most of the parlays that grab headlines, we’re not talking about a $10 parlay with 10 or more legs to cash a big ticket. This was a $30,000 wager, so we’re talking about a bettor that likely has the money to make a significant hedge in some capacity. The cash-out option from DraftKings was just over $650,000, so that would be one way to hedge. Another would be the Broncos at plus money on the moneyline.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
They will really be crying if the DD favs on Sunday all cover. The one dog that could cover is Detroit from that group. I have no confidence in Houston or Chixago back-door covering.
I definitely think the Bears can cover. People only focus on that weak offense. The D is still strong and Tampa has huge problems in their secondary. Can Fields exploit it? We'll see. But IMO, that line is a good 2.5 too high. Of course, I've been on the Bears in every game so far, but I have no problem taking an ugly dog.
If anything, it's better than it looks. They've worn down at the end a couple times due to the fact the offense couldn't stay on the field. A perfect example was the Rams game, where the Rams had something like 6 rush yards in the first half. They still lead the NFL in sacks.
What incentive does Brady (or any NFL team) have to not let up? This isn't college. No style points for big win margins.
Don't get me wrong; the Bears aren't close to being a good team. But I don't think they are as bad as the market thinks. The market says a bottom 5 team in the NFL. I think they are more like 2 to 2.5 points below league average.
When the Bucs and Bears played last year, Tampa was a 3 1/2 point road favorite. If we figure 1 1/2 points for home field, that would've made Tampa 5 points better on a neutral field. Now Tampa is a 12 1/2 point home favorite, which would translate to 11 better on a neutral. Has there really been a full composite 6 point change in those two teams in the past year? Tampa basically brought back the same personnel from last year, although now their secondary is battered. The Bears have a few changes. Yes Montgomery won't be playing. But he was a non factor last year (29 rush yards) when the Bears beat Tampa. Nick Foles was the QB that day and now he's 3rd string. Maybe I will be wrong, but no way could I lay 12 1/2.
When the Bucs and Bears played last year, Tampa was a 3 1/2 point road favorite. If we figure 1 1/2 points for home field, that would've made Tampa 5 points better on a neutral field. Now Tampa is a 12 1/2 point home favorite, which would translate to 11 better on a neutral. Has there really been a full composite 6 point change in those two teams in the past year? Tampa basically brought back the same personnel from last year, although now their secondary is battered. The Bears have a few changes. Yes Montgomery won't be playing. But he was a non factor last year (29 rush yards) when the Bears beat Tampa. Nick Foles was the QB that day and now he's 3rd string. Maybe I will be wrong, but no way could I lay 12 1/2.
blueline
EOG Master
I know you're not saying theyre good.
The defense is giving up 8.1 ypa...not good...if you keep the pass rush out its a big problem for bears defense
Beating brady means getting him off his spot....if they dont its a very long day for them.
To me this is just a really bad matchup at this time for the bears.
There is article on the nfl website about brady finally getting to face an OSU quarterback.....he gets off on this stuff
The defense is giving up 8.1 ypa...not good...if you keep the pass rush out its a big problem for bears defense
Beating brady means getting him off his spot....if they dont its a very long day for them.
To me this is just a really bad matchup at this time for the bears.
There is article on the nfl website about brady finally getting to face an OSU quarterback.....he gets off on this stuff
Agreed. I think the books just got tired of all these favorites winning, so they are adding a couple points tax.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Can the coaching staff exploit it? They are content with slowing the game down. Looking forward to 3 one-yard passes to Kmet. I played TB over 30.5 pretty large, can’t see the bears scoring 17 to push.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Amazing that the Bears beat Brady last year with David Foles.
Plenty of smart football commentary in this thread.
I liked the line about getting Brady off his spot.
I liked the line about getting Brady off his spot.
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
FairWarning
Bells Beer Connoisseur
Hicks is the most important player on that D. Fournette has had a great year for TB, he could have a huge game with no Hicks.
blueline
EOG Master
Patrick Finley
@patrickfinley
#Bears reinstated# Damien Williams from the Covid-19 list. They also ruled out Akiem Hicks for tomorrow’s game.