BYU @ BOISE ST
BOISE ST +153 over BYU
Pinnacle +153 BET365 +155 SportsInteraction +148 5DIMES +155 Bookmaker +163
Posted at 1:00 PM EST
BOISE ST +153 over BYU
Albertsons Stadium – Boise, ID
Streaming: ON ESPN in the Sports Group
9:45 PM EST. BYU has pretty much assassinated everything it has come across so far in the 2020 season. The Cougars are sitting pretty at 7-0 and they have been equally profitable with a 6-1-1 against the spread (ATS) mark. Cash cows like BYU attract a lot of market attention. QB Zack Wilson is also making a name for himself and that, too, increases the market appeal of the Cougars. Given BYU’s undefeated mark along with its accelerated market appeal, the Cougars have been hammered by the efficient market to the point of being the price you see here, up from the opening line of -1 back on November 1.
Next up in BYU’s market appeal is that it has pieced together a 4-1 ATS record against Boise State in their previous five meetings in this rivalry series. The Cougars were favored in NONE of those aforementioned five games where they managed to cover in four of them. Now the roles are reversed, which is rather unfamiliar territory for the Cougars. As for the Cougars 7-0 mark and #9 ranking that has their stock soaring, we look at who they have beaten and it’s not exactly a who’s who of college football. They beat a Navy team that has been blown out four times already this year. They beat Troy, a Sun Belt team that would be a +18 to +21 point underdog if it were scheduled to play here. They beat Louisiana Tech, a 4-3 C-USA team that beat Houston Baptist and UTEP for two of its four wins. BYU’s last two victories came against Texas Tech and Western Kentucky, two of the absolute worst teams in Division I college football. Perhaps BYU is as good as advertised but battle tested they are not and one could develop many bad habits playing cupcakes week after week after week.
The fabled “smurf turf” that Boise calls home has been a notoriously difficult place for opponents to win at. This is a staple of the Boise State program that the Broncos hang their hat on. We are assured that the Broncos are insulted being priced as an underdog at home. We are not here to undermine the success that BYU has had this season by any means. However to Boise State, a team like the Cougars are a dime-a-dozen, as this Boise State institution has made a living in taking on anyone, anywhere, and winning. With all the uncertainty that has surrounded this season, the one certainty is that Boise is licking its chops at an opportunity to remind the country of who and what they are. The best part is we are getting the Broncos at a steal of a price. Forget the points, we’ll take Boise outright to stage the upset.
