Boston has absolutely no one who can guard Kobe. Posey's a pretty good defender, but he's basically a 20 min./game guy off the bench. Tony Allen's their best perimeter defender, but Doc Rivers is an idiot, so Tony probably won't even play. That leaves them with having Pierce guarding Kobe for the majority of the game (unless Doc's foolish enough to put Ray Allen on him at times, which would get ugly). That's just asking too much out of Pierce. They need his offense to beat the Lakers, and he won't be effective enough on that end if he's exerting much of his energy checking Kobe. As you saw in the Cleveland series, Pierce's offense suffered dramatically (not including Game 7) because he had to guard Lebron. The Celtics got away with it against the Cavs because Lebron didn't have any help, but they can't beat a team with the Lakers' firepower without Pierce averaging 25-30/game.
Gasol's obviously very soft and he can't score on Duncan. He won't have an easier time scoring on Garnett, but the Lakers don't really need him to score to win. He actually did a decent job guarding Duncan much of the series, and Garnett's not anywhere near the low-post scorer that Tim is. Garnett could conceivably dominate Gasol with his athleticism, but it's not in his nature to be aggressive enough to do so.
I just don't see how the Celtics can score enough to win this series. After guarding Iverson, Deron Williams and Tony Parker the previous three series, Fisher won't have to work nearly as much on the defensive end against Rondo, who has no perimeter shot at all. You play a few feet off of Rondo and you can completely take away his offense, as he can't make a jumper to save his life. You need a PG who poses a threat in the pick and roll game to beat the Lakers, similar to what Utah and SA have. The Celtics just don't have that. Also a huge edge on the bench for the Lakers, not to mention the immense coaching advantage with Phil over Doc.
Including the playoffs, the Lakers are 34-7 with Gasol in the lineup with a +10.3 point differential. This is by far the best team in the league. The 2-3-2 format is in many ways beneficial to LA -- If the Lakers get a split in the first 2 games in Boston, which is pretty likely, there's a good chance this series doesn't even get back to Boston for Game 6.
Lakers in 5.
