CFL 2023

[choslamshe]

Season kicks off tonight. Looking forward to the new looks of a lot of teams, reminiscent of what the 2023 WNBA has brought.

Stamps (-2.5) and Lions open up tonight with a total of 51.5. I believe this total opened at about 47 and there's been a lot of talk of BC's offensive prowness not being lost with the depature of Nathan Rourke to the NFL. Games in the first weeks of CFL over the last few years have been considerably low scoring so this total being bet up might be an overexaggeration.

Vernon Adams (BC QB) is as inconsistent as they come. They do have a ton of receiving weapons and I'm making an early predication that Dominique Rhymes will lead the CFL in receiving yards this year. Calgary will continue to rely on their ground game with Kadeem Carey leading their carries. With Bo-Levi Mitchell moving on to Hamilton, Jake Maier is the undisputed starter and brings in a decent amount of experienc over the last couple of years.

I think this total floating above 50 is a bit too early considering the lack of preseason reps and historical 'flow' in the first couple weeks of the season.

My play tonight is on the UNDER 51.5 which can be found pretty wide.

 

[choslamshe]

Interesting, Rhymes isn't listed on the depth chart tonight. There's been some social media drama with the team leading into the season and wondering if this is related. This is a bit of a shock...

 

[Murphy’s Best]

Tailing….

 

[choslamshe]

How do the BC Lions look this year?

Nathan Rourke was the biggest thing for this league in a long time and he leaves a void of explosiveness. They still have a lot of offensive weapons, but I just don't trust Vernon Adams. A lot of talk of his preseason performances but he'll need to show some consistency before I consider tailing them.

With a lot of offseason moves, honestly I think BC will land somewhere right in the middle of the league. I rank Calgary, Winnipeg, Hamilton, and Toronto ahead of them, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Elks made a massive jump with their offseason. I think the Riders will be in the basement this year.

 

[kane]

Well done Cho

 

[choslamshe]

All over the Riders/Elks UNDER 45.5 tomorrow night.

Riders without their top 2 WRs, new QB in Trevor "play it safe" Harris who will lean on Jamal Morrow with a lot of short dumps and shallow crosses with their rather limited receiver core. Elks offensive is as scary on paper as any team with the additions of Eugene Lewis and Kyran Moore. But I think it's going to take a few weeks to put it all together. Elks defense is improved from a year ago and the Riders D is going to need to be their strength all year if they want to compete.

See a 21-16 type game here.

PS - Edmonton's kicker is a 36 year old rookie named Dean Faithful. No idea how he ended up landing a spot on the roster let alone a starting gig. But head coach Chris Jones has already gone on record saying he's (Jones) isn't confident with his range outside of 40 yards. In a game total this low, whether it's a shank or the decision to gamble on 3rd downs, I think this will help us stay under.

 

[choslamshe]

Going to play the 2nd half of Als/Redblacks UNDER 21.5.

Riders are likely going to have the worst offense this year, but Cody Fajardo is the worst QB in the league. He was the recipient of the most sacks last year in Sask and the Sask OL was criticized the entire year. Big surprise, Cody's first game and first half with his new team and has been sacked 4 times. He holds the ball too long and in a 3 down game, is the reason his teams go 2 and out over and over again.

 

[choslamshe]

Riders D looks really good. Thought Edmonton's O would struggle but they look terrible. Will take a miracle (OT) to send this one over the total.

 

[choslamshe]

In the CFL, the defense has to give a full yard off tglhe line of scrimmage. Elks just turned the ball over after 3 consecutive QB sneaks from the 1 yard line were snuffed out by the Riders. Almost an impossibility goes my way

 

[choslamshe]

Initial week 2 look and lean will be on the Lions/Elks OVER the total. Both offenses best attacks are against the weak spots of the defences. Vernon Adams QB yardage prop will also be interesting.

 

[choslamshe]

Week 2 CFL Lines out. Going to jump on the Lions/Elks OVER 45.5.

Tough to stomach after watching the Elks terrible offensive performance, but there are a couple of things I like.

1. Edmonton faced a TON of pressure this past week. 17 consecutive home losses dating back to 2019. A ton of offseason moves to make their offense more potent. And they will be. I think they'll play more relaxed on the road even though playing in BC is never easy.

2. Despite the low number of points, the Riders had their way with the Elks young secondary and the Riders receiver core are among the worst in the league. Edmonton starts two rookies at DB and they looked lost on more than a few plays. Now add in that they face a much more potent offense with a top-3 reciever core in the league, BC scoring into the low to mid-20s should be the absolute floor this week. Edmonton will need to scrap the conservative play and force the ball to their weapons.

Always dangerous playing a CFL over early in the season, but this one I thought would open closer to 50.

 

[choslamshe]

Playing a couple of props tonight:

1. Brady Oliveira OVER 75.5 rush yards -120
2. Samuel Emilus UNDER 44.5 receiving yards -120

Both at BetRegal

If Oliveira stays healthy, he should see north of 15 carries tonight, especially considering the anticipated game script of Winnipeg having the lead. Riders playing on 4 days rest against a team that has steamrolled them over the last few years, even in Regina. Riders receiver core and QB are beat up as well, feeling we see a half dozen guys rotated at wideout so Emilus will need to get these yards on the 2-3 targets he's likely to get.

 

[choslamshe]

On the Ti-Cats -2 tonight vs the Als. Bo Levi Mitchell injury a blessing. Schiltz should be able to get more his weapons more involved, quicker.

Als coming off a bye and their week 1 win over Ottawa told us exactly what this Als team is going to be offensively this year.

First home game for the Tabbies...I'll bite

 

[choslamshe]

Offenses still lagging way behind already into week 5. Lack of creativity and big plays down the field, so many two and outs.

Today's total between the TiCats and Red Blacks set at 44.5 and I just don't see it. Ottawa gets Jeremiah Masoli back under center which makes me lean even more to yet another defensive tilt.

Under 44.5 for me.

 

[choslamshe]

Unless there is bullshit CFL scoring in this second half, pretty easy double-down 2nd half play:

Hamilton/Ottawa UNDER 21.5 (2nd half) -110

Offenses are pathetic. Both teams running their backup QBs. Both teams content on running on both 1st and 2nd down. Zero downfield attack, zero aggressiveness, zero productivity.

Kent State Krum came in and rushed for a TD at the end of the half, but he won't want to throw the ball unless he has to this second half.

Yet another pathetic offensive CFL game in the books...

 

[choslamshe]

Despite it being a bit of a nail biter (down to last play), it's still pretty smart to just blindly bet these totals under. Quarterback play in this league is at an all-time low. With that lack of down field plays across the league, combined with the quarky rules of the game (clock runs on all plays), quarters simply fly by with very little to show offensively.

Total tomorrow between Montreal and BC is again pretty low, but zero confidence in offenses consistently finishing drives. Defense or Special Teams TD likely the only way it finds its way over.

Also will look at the Als TT under as I see Fajardo getting sacked 6+ times.

 

[choslamshe]

Playing the Als UNDER 17.5 TT today -115 Bet365

Also on the full game total UNDER 45.5 -110 Bet365

BC Boasts the best D in the CFL and the Montreal offensive attack lacks big plays with Cody Fajardo behind centre. BC should sack him all night as he holds onto the ball way too long. They'll likely try 4-6 designed QB runs for Cody as well, without fully realizing he runs like a defensive lineman.

For BC, all of their receiver weapons are healthy and playing for the first time (collectively) this year. However, Vernon Adams continues to demonstrate why a lack of brain skill has prevented him from getting bigger opportunities down south. Mis-timed throws, signals crossed with the receivers...these are things you'll likely hear about tonight. BC's starting running back is out so they will operate by committee.

In any event, I'm counting on lots of ball movement by BC coupled with bad 2nd down decisions and execution leading to a lot of field goals at best. Montreal will struggle to do anything offensively in this game and will be content with just keeping it 'within range' as long as they can.

 

[ComptrBob]

Riders are likely going to have the worst offense this year, but Cody Fajardo is the worst QB in the league. He was the recipient of the most sacks last year in Sask and the Sask OL was criticized the entire year. Big surprise, Cody's first game and first half with his new team and has been sacked 4 times. He holds the ball too long and in a 3 down game, is the reason his teams go 2 and out over and over again.

Cody Fajardo goes 21 for 26, 290 yds, 3 TDS, leading the Alouettes to a last second victory in the 2023 Grey Cup (he's named the MVP).

But he's the worst QB in the league.

Hmmm.