Circa Survivor - Thanksgiving Weekend

D

dogball

EOG Master
And than there were 372. Still a long long way from week 18 and I think this is the toughest weekend for me, IF I make it out of Thanksgiving day. Would appreciate constructive input on this weekends batch of close games on paper.

To Date, I have used- Philly, Buffalo, Washington, Giants, Chargers, Miami, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Dallas, San Fran and Seattle.

I have KC saved for Christmas, should I Get that far.

This weekends batch of close games on paper-

Baltimore- Hoped to save for week 18, should pull out a win even on the road
Rams- Zona defense awful but a road game against a team whose offense can move ball
Denver- enough offense to win at home ? Gonna be a nail bitter , best case
Pitt- Enough offense to win this ? Defense is there, tough road game
Minnesota- Chicago is dangerous, Minny off a bad Sunday night loss. Bears will move ball well

Other games in consideration but harder to pull trigger-
NE, Tenn

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Happy Turkey Day
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ray Luca

Ray Luca

EOG Master
dogball said:
And than there were 372. Still a long long way from week 18 and I think this is the toughest weekend for me, IF I make it out of Thanksgiving day. Would appreciate constructive input on this weekends batch of close games on paper.

To Date, I have used- Philly, Buffalo, Washington, Giants, Chargers, Miami, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Dallas, San Fran and Seattle.

I have KC saved for Christmas, should I Get that far.

This weekends batch of close games on paper-

Baltimore- Hoped to save for week 18, should pull out a win even on the road
Rams- Zona defense awful but a road game against a team whose offense can move ball
Denver- enough offense to win at home ? Gonna be a nail bitter , best case
Pitt- Enough offense to win this ? Defense is there, tough road game
Minnesota- Chicago is dangerous, Minny off a bad Sunday night loss. Bears will move ball well

Other games in consideration but harder to pull trigger-
NE, Tenn

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Happy Turkey Day
Click to expand...

Detroit not mentioned
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
What I find amazing is this market of people selling their entries now.

Heard on a pod someone sold an entry for 15k two weeks ago.

If I had multiple entries and got past this upcoming weekend I'd sell an entry to show a nice profit.

Take some of the stress off the table
 
D

dogball

EOG Master
Sportsrmylife said:
What I find amazing is this market of people selling their entries now.

Heard on a pod someone sold an entry for 15k two weeks ago.

If I had multiple entries and got past this upcoming weekend I'd sell an entry to show a nice profit.

Take some of the stress off the tabl
Click to expand...
I read about that market although not sure its true , Only one entry for me, its not for sale unless value was over 100K and even than hard pressed. Biggest concern is the people who still have 7-9 entries alive, tough to compete
 
winkyduck

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Would lean to Minny on MNF for the "other week" you have to do this week.

I sent you a DM about this, too
 
Sportsrmylife

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
dogball said:
I read about that market although not sure its true , Only one entry for me, its not for sale unless value was over 100K and even than hard pressed. Biggest concern is the people who still have 7-9 entries alive, tough to compete
Click to expand...
It was Derek Stevens or Mike Palm that said they only pay out the person of record on the entry.

So someone could buy someone's entry, win, and the original person could take the prize and say f u.

Could get messy in court
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
BROWNA - one of last year's winners, has one of his ten entries remaining.

It'll be interesting who he selects, for he doesn't have available; DAL, DET, MIA, SF.
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
There are several others who will be on dogs tomorrow or Friday.

Notable is Mike Federico. Three entries alive, but two of the three have used DAL, DET, MIA, SF.
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
dogball said:
I read about that market although not sure its true , Only one entry for me, its not for sale unless value was over 100K and even than hard pressed. Biggest concern is the people who still have 7-9 entries alive, tough to compete
Click to expand...

Don't worry about them. Get yours to week 18 and then hedge based on your bankroll and risk tolerance week 18.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
dogball said:
at what point does a team with 10 live entries guarantee themselves a finish in week 18 ? TIA
Click to expand...

Depends on which picks are available and how the picks are spread among the 10 entries going forward. With the size of the Circa Survivor, viable goals are getting to a hedging point and get to Selection #20 with a good choice since it is very likely there will be more than a few left. Too much work/guesses to try to quantify a "guarantee" at this point or guess at what point its 100% to get to Week 18.
 
C

cheapseats

EOG Master
Yea, I don't know the best pathway forward or guarantee. Obviously, the next selection is heavily weighted. Thereafter, it seems more open to risk/reward options.
 
D

dogball

EOG Master
Woodrow Wilson said:
Don't worry about them. Get yours to week 18 and then hedge based on your bankroll and risk tolerance week 18.
Click to expand...
ive had blinders on until now, worrying only about the entry, real tough next two weeks so Gonna focus and find some winners , keep advancing, or at least try my best. great advice, thanks
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
dogball said:
And than there were 372. Still a long long way from week 18 and I think this is the toughest weekend for me, IF I make it out of Thanksgiving day. Would appreciate constructive input on this weekends batch of close games on paper.

To Date, I have used- Philly, Buffalo, Washington, Giants, Chargers, Miami, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Dallas, San Fran and Seattle.

I have KC saved for Christmas, should I Get that far.

This weekends batch of close games on paper-

Baltimore- Hoped to save for week 18, should pull out a win even on the road
Rams- Zona defense awful but a road game against a team whose offense can move ball
Denver- enough offense to win at home ? Gonna be a nail bitter , best case
Pitt- Enough offense to win this ? Defense is there, tough road game
Minnesota- Chicago is dangerous, Minny off a bad Sunday night loss. Bears will move ball well

Other games in consideration but harder to pull trigger-
NE, Tenn

Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Happy Turkey Day
Click to expand...
vikings, fields is a clown
 
Woodrow Wilson

Woodrow Wilson

EOG Dedicated
MotorCity-1 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-10 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-2 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-3 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-4 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-5 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-6 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-7 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-8 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-9 2. LIONS PK

He has been loaded up on one side every week except a couple times.

His all-or-nothing strategy has been working.

Since he doesn't have KC available, It'll be interesting seeing if he has any variety Sunday.

Personally, I would have used one or two GB today. Maybe he has enough money and outs to hedge outside the contest with GB ML.
 
Crazy Pete

Crazy Pete

EOG Addicted
If you do not have any of the four favorites available, the obvious move is to take the Packers. All 4 are unlikely to win, but if the Lions lose you eliminate over 56% of the competition. Over 80% if the Cowboys lose too.

Similar logic if you have SF & Miami available, but not the Cowboys or the Lions.
It’s high variance, but the risk versus reward makes the Packers an easy choice in that case too.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
Woodrow Wilson said:
MotorCity-1 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-10 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-2 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-3 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-4 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-5 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-6 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-7 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-8 2. LIONS PK
MotorCity-9 2. LIONS PK

He has been loaded up on one side every week except a couple times.

His all-or-nothing strategy has been working.

Since he doesn't have KC available, It'll be interesting seeing if he has any variety Sunday.

Personally, I would have used one or two GB today. Maybe he has enough money and outs to hedge outside the contest with GB ML.
Click to expand...
this guy is toast
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
dogball said:
at what point does a team with 10 live entries guarantee themselves a finish in week 18 ? TIA
Click to expand...

Of course, I should have pointed out the easy answer that there is NEVER a point where even with 10 live entries, one could have a 100% guarantee to finish in a future week.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top