College Football Side and Total Money Makers. Is Regression coming?

#1
ATS
La Laf 5-0 ats
ohio st 5-1 ats
ok st 5-1 ats
auburn 5-1 ats
smu 5-1 ats

vandy 0-5 ats
akron 0-5 ats
ga tech 0-5 ats
umass 1-5 ats
nebraska 1-5 ats

Totals
smu 6-0 over
charlottle 5-0 over

liberty 0-5 und
san diego st 0-5 und
old dom 0-5 und
east car 0-6 und
florida 1-5 und
cal 1-5 und
s alab 1-5 und

Now go collect all the money.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#3
Not sure if regression will occur or the line has over-adjusted. SMU was a dog a ARK ST to open the season. Then open -14 versus a decent
Tulsa team that's better than ARK ST!? Can't play on them anymore.
 
#4
Not sure if regression will occur or the line has over-adjusted. SMU was a dog a ARK ST to open the season. Then open -14 versus a decent
Tulsa team that's better than ARK ST!? Can't play on them anymore.
Im looking to fade all the above moves. Getting some extra points as the san diego st total has crashed since the open. I'm not looking to ride any of these streaks only going to fade especially if the market moves in line with the above trend.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#5
I support this line of thinking.

I predict you'll win more games by a half-point or a point than the other way around.
 
#6
Make a number bet a number that's advantageous. If you are betting Akron, Umass etc you need to do it closer to kickoff and not watch the game is my advice.

Ecu and sdsu betting over is really hoping for a few things to happen. You want special teams to show up for td or a lot of turnovers to take place. I'm pretty sure Long hates the forward pass more than Railbird hates the new shot clock in college hoops at this point.
 
#7
Cal when they get their Qb back has a little more firepower on offense and you can find some spots I think. Heim is absolutely right about SMU btw. Liberty has cost me a new car this season. They gain 400 yards give up 400 and never exceed 45 points. Threw in the towel on them. Their analytics are absurd
 
#8
My two cents on this, and I have been betting regressions to the mean for 20 years, is you wait until the streak ends. You probably go 50/50 betting against trend like this, but I have found you go 55/45 betting against a trend in the game after it ends. I came to this because of my past training on trading stocks and currencies, but its worked quite well in the sports betting world as well. Really works well in MLB and NHL where teams go on these runs that are normal, but once they lose a game they are dead money in the next 3 to 5 games after the loss, often going 1-4 or 2-3. I try to win a unit or two where they put in games that they look below par on and then move onto the next.

Only trends I would condone trying to beat the curve on are NFL and NBA only because people see them and take action on them. You see it in MLB too but the streaks have to be long, like 7 games or more. For the NCAA, the squares might see Ohio St or LSU and you get some extra value, but how many squares are paying attention to ULL or U Mass?
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
#9
My two cents on this, and I have been betting regressions to the mean for 20 years, is you wait until the streak ends. You probably go 50/50 betting against trend like this, but I have found you go 55/45 betting against a trend in the game after it ends. I came to this because of my past training on trading stocks and currencies, but its worked quite well in the sports betting world as well. Really works well in MLB and NHL where teams go on these runs that are normal, but once they lose a game they are dead money in the next 3 to 5 games after the loss, often going 1-4 or 2-3. I try to win a unit or two where they put in games that they look below par on and then move onto the next.

Only trends I would condone trying to beat the curve on are NFL and NBA only because people see them and take action on them. You see it in MLB too but the streaks have to be long, like 7 games or more. For the NCAA, the squares might see Ohio St or LSU and you get some extra value, but how many squares are paying attention to ULL or U Mass?
Thanks for posting that. I will run little experiment and check above list after this weekend, will bet teams following weekend that buck the trend this weekend
 
#12
My two cents on this, and I have been betting regressions to the mean for 20 years, is you wait until the streak ends. You probably go 50/50 betting against trend like this, but I have found you go 55/45 betting against a trend in the game after it ends. I came to this because of my past training on trading stocks and currencies, but its worked quite well in the sports betting world as well. Really works well in MLB and NHL where teams go on these runs that are normal, but once they lose a game they are dead money in the next 3 to 5 games after the loss, often going 1-4 or 2-3. I try to win a unit or two where they put in games that they look below par on and then move onto the next.

Only trends I would condone trying to beat the curve on are NFL and NBA only because people see them and take action on them. You see it in MLB too but the streaks have to be long, like 7 games or more. For the NCAA, the squares might see Ohio St or LSU and you get some extra value, but how many squares are paying attention to ULL or U Mass?
ive been doing it 40 yrs, it works best with college football
 
#15
Make a number bet a number that's advantageous. If you are betting Akron, Umass etc you need to do it closer to kickoff and not watch the game is my advice.

Ecu and sdsu betting over is really hoping for a few things to happen. You want special teams to show up for td or a lot of turnovers to take place. I'm pretty sure Long hates the forward pass more than Railbird hates the new shot clock in college hoops at this point.
The San Diego St total has dropped 3 points from the open. If 37.5 shows I'll play the over. Wyoming could give up 28 to San Diego St

My two cents on this, and I have been betting regressions to the mean for 20 years, is you wait until the streak ends. You probably go 50/50 betting against trend like this, but I have found you go 55/45 betting against a trend in the game after it ends. I came to this because of my past training on trading stocks and currencies, but its worked quite well in the sports betting world as well. Really works well in MLB and NHL where teams go on these runs that are normal, but once they lose a game they are dead money in the next 3 to 5 games after the loss, often going 1-4 or 2-3. I try to win a unit or two where they put in games that they look below par on and then move onto the next.

Only trends I would condone trying to beat the curve on are NFL and NBA only because people see them and take action on them. You see it in MLB too but the streaks have to be long, like 7 games or more. For the NCAA, the squares might see Ohio St or LSU and you get some extra value, but how many squares are paying attention to ULL or U Mass?
I am starting with the above trends and then waiting to get extra points before I play against the above trend. If the betting market goes opposite of the trend I'll pass.

Your theory about playing after a streak works great in the NBA from what I have followed.
 
#16
The San Diego St total has dropped 3 points from the open. If 37.5 shows I'll play the over. Wyoming could give up 28 to San Diego St


I am starting with the above trends and then waiting to get extra points before I play against the above trend. If the betting market goes opposite of the trend I'll pass.

Your theory about playing after a streak works great in the NBA from what I have followed.
It does well in NBA in limited spots, but problem is these days teams rarely go on really long ATS streaks. Everyone knows the NBA regular season means nothing so these guys will put in an effort two games, then ship one in and look horrible, then get back to it. How else do nearly 20 point favorites lose games outright?

Someone who carefully studies them can really make some bank figuring out their motivation, but hard to come up with general trends a lot of teams follow on this.
 
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