Do local bookmakers get crushed...

When their "local" team goes on an ATS run...

I believe that every local fears the inevitable year where the local team goes 13-3 against the spread.

This happened the Year that Minnesota went to the NFC championship...it crushed alot of locals in my area that year. I think they were 13-3 that year.

Thoughts?
 
They can always jack the number up a 1/2 pt or more and lay some action off. I've never heard of a local going under so they are doing OK.
 
Agreed with raiders if the bookie knows that his home team is killing it ATS in a given year he'd be wise to lay some of that action off with another local or jack the line by a half-full point then go lay some of that action offshore.
 

wizofescazu

EOG Enthusiast
WE all fear our home team going on a crazy run against the spread..

I need to beat the Jets every weekend..Its a fact..

But you cannot move the line a 1/2 point because then someone for a huge chunk takes the other side..If he wins you need to collect from the world to pay him..

Respect the line and let the players play..Moving lines means you have an opinion..Opinions are the human element that can bury you..let the players have the opinion..
 

The General

Another Day, Another Dollar
I'm certain someone from San Diego felt some pain last season in NFL. hung
Most often here, the hook or even a point will be added on Indy and over which presents some good chances for us local punters if we are paying attention.
 
Wiz, your post is right on the money. Trust in the line. Never concerned myself much with 2 way action as long as my line is tight. you may taken a beating on Occasion, but will make more in the long run.
 
Guys I have to respectfully disagree with the lines not being jacked up. Almost all locals that I know move the line a little and still get one way action on the home team and do lay some off at times. Also if they are taking big bets they will deal dual lines. There are a couple of locals on the boards that do shade the line and deal dual lines. If Chicago, NY, Philly are in the playoffs you can be sure that the home teams going to be bet no matter what line is dealt.
 

The Boss

EOG Member
Biggest shades I saw were pre off shore in Montreal on the Habs we had to deal only puck lines the money line would not slow them down.
 

wizofescazu

EOG Enthusiast
RAIDERS..

I totally disagree with you..Most gamblers are no longer idiots..They have services or at least friends who tell them when they are being scalped..

Yes there are still the old timers who pick up a phone and wager no matter what..But those guys are few and far between today..

Because of sites like these who educate the player, false and unequittable lines are becoming a thing of the past..

If you get me the number of a local who favors the home teams, i will show you a player who buys the 1/2 point on the weak side and gets chased after week 3..

The industry, is a industry now..No longer are there candy stores out there ready to be picked apart..
 
wizofescazu said:
WE all fear our home team going on a crazy run against the spread..

I need to beat the Jets every weekend..Its a fact..

But you cannot move the line a 1/2 point because then someone for a huge chunk takes the other side..If he wins you need to collect from the world to pay him..

Respect the line and let the players play..Moving lines means you have an opinion..Opinions are the human element that can bury you..let the players have the opinion..

Welcome to EOG! You obviously know what you're talking about. A agree with everything you said.
 
Any local guy can adjust to his local teams and always can get a better number elsewhere when dumping off so he has a nice edge when needed. Neutral off shore books don't have that luxury depending on agent packages.
 
Locals CAN jack the number if they want to do at least one of the following:

1. Essentially take the game off the board (the customers know the number)

2. Make his clients feel like their being cheated.

3. Lose customers because they KNOW they are being taken advantage of.

4. Lose the goodwill between bookmaker and client.

Beleive me, players now adays have the internet, know the line on their home team, and know if a BM is jacking it up on them...

As a result, all local BM's simply have to eat the one sided action, and HOPE that their local team at least goes .500 or worse. This is why I believe all locals fear the local team going 13-3 ats.

Iron.
 

wizofescazu

EOG Enthusiast
ARI..Good point..Game is 7..the suckers lay 7 1/2..BM goes out and buys 6 1/2 and its a win win when game lands on 7..

One problemo..You have a fortune on side A..the hedge loses and now you must pay hedge but the losing $$$ trickles in over time..

In the credit world you may collect 70 cents on the dollar in a good week..the rest carries..you must pay hedge..the margins begin to suck and you are working for the man..

Its a two sided coin..Bottom line is the players over time should lose..History is on the books side..

Just one mans opinion...
 
Is it just me or do some others have a problem hearing an INDIANA boy refer to us degenerate gamblers as, " PUNTERS????!!!!"

Seriously, that sounds too sophisticated for me to accept General...clubbed

Also, I'd have to agree with wiz on the local bookmaker argument raiders...

The average "square" these days could almost be considered yesterday's, "WISEGUY."

The internet has educated them so much...

THE SHRINK
 

Bo F'n Diddley

EOG Senior Member
I think small timers can take a beating. When the Pats covered 13 or so a few years back I could lay 7 and call a "friend" in boston and get 9. I think it can put a sting to certain locals.
 
Iron has a good point. Jacking the line is a ggod way to lose clients. Two guys at the water cooler on a Monday talking. One guy layed 5, the other layed 6'. The guy who layed 6' ain't gonna be happy.
 
First post at this new site, but I have poseted at a few sites in the past...

I find it hard to think that ANYONE gets crushed anymore these days. Be it players or boookies. There are way too many places around to allow that to happen.

Also as with bettors, bookies are getting smarter as well. It isn't as simple as looking in the newspaper and shading lines in accordance to what Sheridan had in the friday USA Today anymore.

They all have internet access, they probably also have several accounts at differing books as well. And what they do and when they do it depencds on how much they themsleves want to gamble.

But this new era also makes it more like real bookmaking from the book makers point of view. He is not constantly going to be lopsided on the local teams like he probably was in years past. He can easilly lay off the action elsewhere, and not run the risk of geting hurt.

I am relatively young compared to some, but I was betting sports pretty heavilly in highschool in the mid to late 80's, and in college I used to take action on games as well. But even back then I understood the importance of not being heavy either way, no matter what your personal feelings. So when I was taking bets, if I got too much I would always lay off with some of the "locals" that I knew, although they really were not all that local. But they still were as reputeable as I could find, and was lucky enough to never have a problem collecting or getting square with them.

All I can say is if bookmakers ARE getting hurt, they aren't book makers, they are gamblers, and thus are guys you really don't want to be getting into action with.

No matter how much money someone has, if they aren't runing a book the right way they are eventually going to go broke. And the inverse is also true, as long a book has an ideal business model, they really don't need all that much money on hand to pay the players.
 

wizofescazu

EOG Enthusiast
WANT..NICE POST..

One other thing needs to be said..Today BOOKMAKING is done in real time..Because of DON BEST..Once you have a link..You are on the info super highway..

Back in the day we would wait for the phone to ring, and then get the changes..It was always to late..Now..with the infamous...

MAJOR LINE MOVE..comin from a voice inside the biox..We have equitty..If you have outs without DON BEST..the dudes are in a cave somewhere..

I advocate moving with the $$$..But you need to stay inside the box to survive..
 

The General

Another Day, Another Dollar
Is it just me or do some others have a problem hearing an INDIANA boy refer to us degenerate gamblers as, " PUNTERS????!!!!"

Seriously, that sounds too sophisticated for me to accept General




I'll have a couple BUSCH beers and think about that.
 
When you bet your home team with your local you will be cheated most of the time as the guy knows your betting the fav team.

Too outsmart a book if you live in NY is go against Jets/Giansts and get the extra point
 

ATX

2
almost all the locals I know book to faces.


I usually get a half point or so less than what is widely available on dogs, and rarely get anything good on moneylines.

It's not uncommon for me to call in and be offered +12.5 on a UT opponent when WA is 13, and have a friend from the tailgate have to lay -15 on the Horns. It's possible to middle I guess, but the limits arent going to be as high for the 'friend' if I were to use him as a beard and if the bet was a lot higher than normal for the guy the book would know something was up and would cause more problems for me than it's worth. Throw in the fact that middling NCAA football is a great way lose money...

There are 3 or 4 locals I'm almost positive use Bodog for the action bettors, and pinnacle for guys they dont earn with.
 

wizofescazu

EOG Enthusiast
ATX..and Pinnacle the guys they dont earn with..

What does that mean??..So Pinnacle gets all the players that nobody earns with??...So..if hypothecally..if everyone gave Pinnacle the guys they dont earn with, how does Pinnacle earn??..

Also..The home team can bury you..I remember all the Dave Brown Giant teams..All you did was bet against them..Instant $$..

The best team was the 2002..St. Louis Rams..Rams and Over..Didnt matter what city you were in..Cardinals looking for some of that magic now..
 

ATX

2
whenever I get in touch with a new local I usually do this:

First I'll call in a 4 team parlay usually all favorites usually on the most overpriced favorites. Small money maybe a bill or so. Similar to creating a loose profile at a poker table. On this call I dont ask what the lines are, or just verify them as an afterthought. I also bet the same teams SU and throw them in some teasers, I'll often have the opposite (dogs) somewhere else for 10 or 20 times the amount, I'm basically greasing the wheel for weeks to come with the local.

Win or lose with crap above I'll raise the amount by double the next week with the same guy. I'll throw in a couple dogs being sure to name some standout player or off-the-wall stat as my reasoning for "taking a chance with a dog". It's important to throw in some dogs early so it wont seem unusual later. If I actually won the week before with him it doesnt seem unusual to raise the stakes, if I lost I definitely want him to think I'm chasing.

Week 3 is when I tend to get a grasp on the teams, so at this point I'm looking to start the earning process from the guy. Best case scenario is to have lost with him the previous two weeks that way I can bitch and moan about BS bad beats on teasers, parlays etc. Depending on what kind of read I'm getting on the guy, I'll usually ask for a rundown on the spreads (NFL and Big XII only) and ask a couple "who are they playing?" questions since I only 'want' the spread on the favorite. If I'm down to the guy I'll ask how much do I owe you and make up some BS about glad I finally got my tax return money. If I'm up I'll make up some BS about being down huge with the other local I'm using so I need to double up to make it back before the wife I dont have notices the bank account.

After the rundown I'll probably get an extra half to full point on some NFL games, and often 2-3 points on Big XII games. I'll tell him I need to look at who's playing who today I dont want to take up your time but hesitate....'aw shucks my wife pulled up I better do this now damn, I need to just go big on one game and I remember seeing some random WR for Baylor 3 years ago in high school' and take them getting 27 at home when WA is 24. Then I'll say something like, 'man I cant just leave it all up to Baylor, what am I doing? I've got to take another couple, heads it's Notre Dame tails it's Blind and Deaf University (always comes up tails for the dog with the imaginary coin flip), same with the other dogs, and the occasional rare favorite I'll get a decent price on. I'll usually add 'and dont let me call back later with anything else unless I'm up' and now the image of degenerate loser/chaser with a gambling problem will help me for a few weeks. Sometimes I get hassled about limits, usually an offer to swing by with cash upfront that I won yesterday playing roulette or craps solves that.

I will almost always call him later for the late games. By that time I'm completely hammered after being at the tailgates/game since the night before. I already have everything circled, and usually the lines have moved in my favor. I've found it useful to get teams and lines confused on these phone calls, and sometimes I'll get a friend to get everything confirmed over the phone as if I'm incoherent.

The locals that bet usually wise to this type of ploy relatively quickly, the locals that only book sometimes never really figure it out. Either way it's usually a decent idea to throw some fakes and bet the other way somewhere else to keep/increase your limits. It just depends on what the limits are and the value of the lines you are getting versus the cost of vig. Usually the locals that will give you relatively large limits do so because they've been around the block and arent giving you a line that they cant find better odds on somewhere else for higher limits.

The funniest shit is when you try this routine with a 'new' (to you) local, and he already knows who you are and what you are up to. One local tape recorded some of my calls and it took me three or four weeks to realize that he knew all along what I was up to. When he filled me in I remembered that his phone would always mute, and he said it was because he was laughing so hard. He's now one of my best drinking buddies. Then there's another guy I've been betting into for 6 years, he's a complete moron, he still gives me a point or three on everything except MLB totals. I used to worry about him pulling a stiffy, but after reading the forums over the years, I worry more about my lighter running out...smoke
 

ATX

2
"ATX..and Pinnacle the guys they dont earn with..

What does that mean??..So Pinnacle gets all the players that nobody earns with??...So..if hypothecally..if everyone gave Pinnacle the guys they dont earn with, how does Pinnacle earn??.."


I guess I wasnt clear. Often locals will use dual lines. The action junkies that rarely if ever win over the course of any season get lines posted from Bodog. Guys that have a clue and are looking for juiced up dog lines due to a local/home team situation are often given lines posted from pinnacle or Oly. Some of these locals dont even really know why, they just hear something and do it forever. Kinda funny, but they know if they stick to the 'rules' they will always come out ahead. My job is to f**k with their rule system, create chaos with guys that cant think on their own. No I'm not a scammer or bonus whore.
 

Bucky

EOG Dedicated
Ok, hypothetical question. Any given NFL Sunday - What portion of the total bets might come in on the local favorite? For Example: 100k in NFL bets - how much would be on the Jet's side - will the total on their game one side, also?

What % or $ amount is reasonable to hold? Let's assume the local is liquid for 250K?
 
Bucky-
Good job disecting the confusion in the thread. When I say "crushed", basically...I mean, reduced profit.

You are correct in assuming that the action, even if one -sided, is minimal in terms of percentage of handle. A good ATS run by the predominant team simply reduces hold, and therfore...is negative to the local.

It's not really that complicated.

BTW-for those of you out there Bucky is one sharp customer.

Iron.
 

ATX

2
probably depends on how good or bad the local teams are.


Until last year, a few locals I know in Houston were writing over 3-1 against the Texans.

In Dallas, the opposite, usually over 3-1 on the Cowboys.

In Austin, typically over 80% action on the Longhorns.

Even when all these teams win ATS the books still usually clean up:

1. parlays
2. teasers
3. lack of money management
4. winners play with their balance into basketball where the get crushed (in the NBA for sure).
 

OMNIVOROUS FROG

EOG Master
My locals are just about done. The offshores have put them out of business. The offshore have edges everywhere.

Lower or reduced juice.
Better parlay odds.
Better teaser odds.
Bonuses.
Free 1/2's.
Better limits.
A website/internet betting.

And if you get a credit account, you have taken the only advantage from the locals. Mostly the sophisticated players just shop the locals. Unless they have a shaded line or an opinion, they get no action. The biggest complaint I hear from them is the competition from offshores. Why, because they can't compete. They are not worried about home team winning. What really damaged them last year was an abundance of square winners on primetime NFL. Week after week, favorite and over. That almost put two I know out of business. The bowls saved them. I have access to several locals. If they offer a stale line, or a rogue number I may bite. Sometimes they shade the primetimes. But speaking of primetime, the locals time, at least around me, is almost up.

Best Wishes...OFturndevil
 
OMNIVOROUS FROG said:
What really damaged them last year was an abundance of square winners on primetime NFL. Week after week, favorite and over. That almost put two I know out of business. The bowls saved them.
Best Wishes...OFturndevil

Boy oh' Boy did you nail that on the head! It was sick!
 

ZZ CREAM

EOG Master
BM's always get bailed out! I didn't say it first, but it's true- bookmakers make money INSPITE OF themselves!
 
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