Draft Preview: Advanced strategies

dirty

dirty

EOG Master
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Eric Mack
Senior Fantasy Writer
Tell Eric your opinion

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- T8117836 --><!-- Sesame Modified: 03/20/2005 22:10:55 --><!-- sversion: 17 $Updated: emack$ --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=66 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=66> </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TD><TR><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Check your local newsstands for the second annual CBS SportsLine.com Fantasy Baseball 2005 Owners Manual and Draft Guide. We provide draft strategies, position rankings, cheat sheets and over 850 Fantasy player profiles in this blockbuster issue.


So you want to be a guru, eh? Want everyone in your league worshipping the soapbox you stand on?
<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="50%" align=left border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0 vAlign=center><TD>Anatomy of a winning season </TD></TR><TR class=bg1 vAlign=center><TD>Draft Smart </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1. Have your own value system. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2. Know your opponents' values. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3. Hold no unsubstantiated bias. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1 vAlign=center><TD>Hunt Smart </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1. Take risks. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2. Anticipate. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3. Do not chase the hot hand. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1 vAlign=center><TD>Trade Smart </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>1. Treat players like batteries. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>2. Know their needs and wants. </TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>3. Think multiple moves ahead. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
If you're looking for pearls of wisdom, you've come to the right place.
Get this: the team with the best players wins. Sounds simple, but the most simplistic concept makes a genius.
Stockpile the best players ? the best for 2005. Not last year. Not over the past three years. And not the best years from now. Have so many, you dread cutting someone to get that hot prospect off the waiver wire.
Draft smart, hunt smart and trade smart. Player acquisition is the easily the most important facet of this game. Your league champ is the one who puts in the most time -- either before the draft or on a daily basis.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=150 align=left><TBODY><TR><TD width=150> </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR><TR><TD width=150>Learn how to be the one who deftly traded for Johan Santana amid his struggles last May. (Getty Images) </TD><TD width=15> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>You need to be well-read. Absorb everything. News. Opinion. Even rumor and hearsay. Read until your eyes bleed. It gives you scope of what is really paramount: What players will do, not just what they have done.
It is the only way you didn't trade Johana Santana after last June 3 when he was 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA. Or how Craig Wilson was your 29-homer catcher last season. And how a revitalized Juan Uribe was your waiver-wire shortstop who hit 23 homers.
Talent always is projected. Find it before anyone else does.
Draft Smart

  1. Have your own value system.
    1. The masses use conventional wisdom. Use that to your advantage and let others overpay for last year's breakthrough player -- like Michael Young. You want this year's -- Jose Reyes, perhaps? -- who you can get on the cheap.
    2. Never let anyone in on your opinions on players. If you value Reyes but don't get him on Draft Day, don't let anyone know. You can still trade for him fairly easily as long as you don't let anyone know how much you truly want him. Once people are in on your value system, they will play you -- perhaps even picking your favorites to hold you up in trades later on.
    3. A fine example from last season: In an experts league, I drafted Craig Wilson right after the top catchers were off the board. It was a risky pick, particularly since I could have gotten him later on, but I had a conviction about him and didn't want to miss out. I had followed Wilson closely the previous season and knew if he played every day he would post some high-end numbers for player who was catcher eligible. The risk paid off. Wilson had a huge season as my catcher, playing every day as the Pirates right fielder or first baseman -- something I learned was inevitable by knowing the team's depth chart before Draft Day.
  2. Know your opponents' values.
    1. Try to get in on other's personal value systems and don't reach for players others will let fall to you.
    2. In draft formats, use the Draft Averages tracker as a first-hand tool.
      • It is a statistical representation of mass opinion, so you will have a great idea of how long you can wait on your personal sleepers.
      • It can be found on your league's website as a link in the left column.
    3. In auction formats, you can get other owners to burn their money on players they are overvaluing. The team with the most cash remaining always controls the auction.
      • Get the big names out early in auctions -- particularly ones you have no interest in.
      • When it is your turn to nominate a player for bidding, call out someone you have no interest in. Only bid the minimum $1 and be sure he's one others want and will bid aggressively for. That will help burn opposing owners' reserves.
    4. Know your opponents' favorite teams and how closely they follow them.
      • Someone who listens to their favorite team on radio will tend to seek players they follow. It can also be specific to league, too -- the common rivals and opponents of their favorite team.
      • Someone who watches with a season's pass or on TV regularly will tend to pursue players they can root for easily.
    5. A fine example: In a head-to-head league last season, I was able to pick Vernon Wells in Round 3 and Matt Morris in Round 4 and then trade the both of them during the draft to a Blue Jays fan who selected Albert Pujols No. 1 overall. It is unlikely you will find such a bargain, but knowing your opponents' values can facilitate getting steals.
  3. Hold no unsubstantiated bias.
    1. You must maximize the value of your draftees, even if just for trade bait. Red Sox nationalists, you have to draft Yankees and vice versa.
    2. Lead people to believe you are extraordinarily high on your favorite team's players. It will throw the owners in your league off track. If you're a Red Sox fan, talk up how big of a year you see for Matt Clement and then wait to take a Carl Pavano or Jaret Wright because no others feel you would let them slide.
Hunt Smart

  1. Take risks.
    1. Your league will have only one winner, so hunt for players on Draft Day or the waiver wire that have the biggest upsides. You have to have clearly more talent than everyone.
    2. High-reward sleepers (Reyes, Austin Kearns) can be cloaked by injury.
    3. Pounce on bargains and trust their stuff even if they start slow. It will be the only way you can reap the reward of your foresight.
  2. Anticipate. It's the sixth sense. Know who is going to happen next.
    1. Rookies are a great way. Have a David Wright on your radar weeks before he is considered for a call-up.
    2. The Age 27 career-year phenomenon is, too. The Rangers' Young emerged as a stud at that age.
    3. Scour the second- and third-year players primed for a breakout. Remember Hank Blalock's improvement from his first to his second year?
    4. Get your hands on as many scouting reports as possible. The scouts can really see the future in many cases. Read all about it.
  3. Do not chase the hot hand.
    1. Leave that to poker players hoping to catch an inside-straight draw. The Fantasy Baseball season is a marathon. Be true to your player analysis and stick with guys you trust in order to reap the reward of inevitable hot steaks.
    2. Starting the player coming off the hot week over your struggling stud is a dangerous proposition. Hitting is cyclical. You want to have your best players in your lineup most often because they could get hot at any time.
    3. Don't necessarily keep chasing the hot players off the waiver wire either. It is very likely you missed their hot streak and will catch their cold spell.
    4. An example: Bucky Jacobsen was a hot waiver-wire pick last July. Justin Morneau was stuck behind undealt Doug Mientkiewicz. Jacobsen was the trendy pick, but Morneau was the wise one. Looking at the stats alone, Jacobsen was on fire and more productive. Reading the hearsay would have led you to project Mientkiewicz being dealt at the deadline. Morneau was a big-time talent waiting to happen compared to Jacobsen's nice minor-league journeyman story, and that is something stats cannot tell you.
Trade Smart

  1. Treat every player like a battery: plug it in when it's charged up; discard it right before it runs dry.
    1. If you find yourself thanking baseball's higher power for the overachiever on your team, it might be time to cash him in. Find a player someone else undervalues who is about to get hot.
    2. Seattle's Jacobsen was a good example. An owner might have dealt you Morneau for Jacobsen because the Mariner was seeing regular at-bats. Morneau eventually bashes his way into the lineup, almost doubling Jacobsen's run production in the second half.
  2. Know everyone's needs and wants.
    1. Trading a saves-hog like Danny Graves for a struggling Santana last June was a stroke of genius.
      • The team needed saves, Graves was the hot hand ready to run dry on an overachieving Reds club. Santana was a paltry 2-4 with a 5.50 ERA on June 3. You can imagine wanting to deal a starting pitcher with those numbers. They are dime a dozen. You would have missed on baseball's most incredible runs by a pitcher where Santana surged himself to the top of 2005's draft charts. He finished 20-6 with a 2.61 ERA.
      • The only way to see such a bargain coming is to look past stats and know what the scouts say about a player's talents.
    2. See the Wells-Morris-for-Pujols Draft Day trade example above. Capitalizing on someone's favorite teams and players they crave are great ways to maximize the value on your team.
    3. Personal value systems facilitate trades. If you think about it, the only way team owners can cut a deal in-season is if they have differing opinions. You have to find a team that thinks opposite of you -- on player projections or Fantasy Baseball strategy.
  3. Like chess, think multiple moves ahead.
    1. Trade that reserve catcher (Damian Miller) for a fan favorite (Jeff Conine), and then turn him around to that Marlins fan who just lost Hee Seop Choi in a bad trade-deadline deal.
    2. Having your hands around the league will help you find the inefficiencies in the marketplace. Where the Morneaus are wallowing on an owner's bench.
    3. Maintain consistent contact with every owner, via the phone line, e-mail or the message boards on our site. Pick their brains so you can discern their value system, or their needs and wants.
It's outwit, outlast and outplay. Draft, hunt and trade your way to a powerhouse by keeping up with what others might or might not know.


</TD><TD> </TD><TD width=160>Draft Prep
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=hrcolor0 height=1><SPACER type="block" height="1"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=cnewstxt2>Fantasy Advice

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<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156736">Rookies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8136337">Breakouts
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8141668">Sleepers
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8156562">Busts
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8228885">AL-only mock draft
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<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8132848">Draft strategies
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8144609">Auction Strategies
? Anatomy of a winning season
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8099213">Experts Draft
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121274">Ranking the 28-year-olds
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8121562">Age 27 is prime time
<A href="http://freewinners.baseball.sportsline.com/news/draft-prep/8130271">Ranking the 27-year-olds

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