I was recently going over a checklist of things I think are prudent to win long-term with a good friend who’s dealing with a bad stretch of variance but the further we dug we found some leaks.
I compiled a quick list of things he should consider before deciding to put forth more time, effort and money into a season that’s not going well. I decided I’d share it with everyone.
I’ve done everything on this list to some degree and made hundreds of other mistakes over the last 15 years. Let’s dive in.
- HOW PREPARED ARE YOU?
How are you preparing for a season? How much have you dived into what you’re going to bet?
Nowadays there are new rule changes, more player and coach movement than anytime in history. Money and motivations of teams and players have changed dramatically in the last 5 years.
Every pro that’s made it a living is prepared at least a month out from a season. They know what they want to attack, who’s a fade or back team or players.
There should no blind spots the first 30 days of any season you are looking to invest in. Fully prepared for anything within reason. There’s really rabbit holes with endless information for every single sport and season these days. There’s no such thing in my opinion as over prepared.
- ARE YOU REALLY FOCUSED?
I can tell you that this in my most difficult trait for myself personally.
It’s not enough to just know players, strengths/weaknesses of entire teams but now you have to focus on so much.
A. The market is constantly moving in a season and you have to be constantly cognizant of how your opinion and numbers match up with the market.
B. Y ou also have to be completely aware of injuries, lineups, roster moves and their worth to the lines.
Weather, refs, umpires etc and if it’s something you need to keep a eye.
C. Lastly you’re going to want to devote some time to watch teams you’re less familiar with, study coaches and follow beat writers.
You’re going to be focusing on winning for 3-8 months depending on the league and sport… Basically everyday
- HOW IS YOUR RECORD KEEPING?
Get a 3rd party for this one. Betstamp, excel that automates results but don’t take any shortcuts here.
You can learn more about your biases and find increasingly interesting information if you’re willing to be 100% honest with yourself.
The more detailed the records the more you’ll learn about what’s losing and figuring out where you’re doing poorly with quick as possible is the goal, that and taxes are easier with good record keeping methods.
I divide every division and conference and go in alphabetical order by team. In order of importance
CLV
W/L divided by sides and totals
2 minute variance W/L
Money +/- amount
That’s it.
I can pinpoint normally what teams I’m wrong on market wise and also what’s costing me in large and small sample sizes by devoting a hour or two every two weeks of any season.
- UNWILLINGNESS TO EVOLVE
What wins tonight, tomorrow, next week or next season has no bearing on the future. Every game it’s own entity, every season changes happen and there are things being thrown at us in waves every year now that no one has experienced.
I’ve been through downswings of all kinds but the worst is not being able to separate my biases for a coach or team that won early in a season but as the season progressed so did the market and all my early season profits disappeared.
There are people using the same philosophies, angles and information that they used a decade ago. Many aren’t winning or aren’t maximizing their ROI out of pure ego and willing to learn new tricks as a old dog.
- BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
I likely should have made this the number one.
There’s really nothing more important than bankroll management. I’m a admitted nit when it comes to my bankroll.
I also have some mental struggles so I bet what makes sense to me personally and also keeps things comfortable both financially and psychologically.
Im incapable of giving good bankroll mgmt advice. It’s too personal.
Here’s a stab at it without knowing someone’s situation personally.
Bet with a goal and a stop loss and if you’re risk adverse you should bet your edge once you’ve figured out exactly what that edge is ROI wise for as much as you can handle.
If you find yourself miserable sweating every close game or in a physically altered mindset while watching a game. Bet less, possibly a LOT less.
If you’re prone to chasing losses or tilt, seek help (being very sincere) asap with a professional.
There’s no shame in it and if you can get all that worked out, you can comeback with new insight… Beats going bust.
1-2.5% of a bankroll per unit is standard advice. Sounds fair enough to me.
- WHAT ARE YOU BETTING AND WHY?
This subject is really simple for me.
Every new bettor I meet now is hooked on parlays. Every young person that seems interested in betting sports is constantly telling me about this +2400 they hit for 10 bucks a few weeks ago.
I’ve never met a professional parlay bettor in the last 24 years that I can recall. I’ve also never met anyone that hit a big enough parlay to retire.
I did once know a man who won 150k on a scratch off ticket… He got even for a lifetime he told everyone.
Focus on winning one straight bet at a time and gradual gains season after season. It’s not as exciting in the beginning stages of bankroll growth. There’s nothing glamorous about going bust but there’s a decent living to be made… Your choice.
- ARE YOU BURNED OUT? HOW’S YOUR LIFE BALANCE?
The biggest challenge of being hyper focused on a season or multiple seasons is balancing life.
Some can be great fathers, husbands, friends while spending 9 hours sweating results and doing great work. This is rare.
My sister’s birthdays happen in football season. I haven’t wished them happy birthday in person in 15 years. I never celebrate my birthday (mid November 2 sports going) until a day off in December (I have 2 days off a month) september-March.
Burnout rate in bettors is growing among the best. I used to work 356 days a year. 3 days off MLB and NBA ASB and the week of no lines for bowl season was always enjoyable in some cruel way.
I’m getting older and can tell you that everyday of your life you can find 20 hours a week to work on something.
Everybody I know is hitting a wall. I hit mine right before COVID hit.
Everyone gets into gambling at a high level so they don’t have to work for anyone else and end up outworking all of their friends who work corporate jobs it seems.
Take time off, travel, be around loved ones, have sex. Let your mind go. You can handle the stress at a later day and you will. There’s no reason to work yourself to death.
There’s going to be games to bet on long after you’re gone and you’re never going to remember a good or a bad stretch of any particular season with much clarity after a few years removed, I promise.
If you think you might be burnt out, you probably are and the second this becomes a job on a loop you are in trouble in my experience.
I appreciate all the dms regarding my family the last couple months. I’ll give a life update in the next week or two.
Please be prepared, keep good records, keep evolving and take enough time off to enjoy the winning when it happens and relax from all the focusing.
You’re the best and thank you for the space as always.
Your friend,
Eddie