Drnkyourmlkshk aka Eddie Walls blog

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
Mar 6

[3/6/24]
The Death of A Originator
The worst thing that can happen to a winner is losing their gamble-
Phil Ivey
I’ve never had the ability to control certain aspects of my gamble if being honest.
I’ve never thrown dice, played a slot machine, couldn’t exactly tell you how 90% of table games work.
I know that I’ve spent too many nights asking myself, “how did this lose?” Calculating my CLV and wondering, “Do I have a edge or is this just normal variance?” And then I repeat that night until the sunlight appears again.
However that’s not what many originators I have known have done.
I’ve had partners and friends where I’ve at times thought oh no, they’re heading towards Bustville population Infinity.
Some turned it around and others welp, not so much.
There’s nothing I avoid more than knowing what others are on.
Let’s be clear if you’re a partner and it’s just us. I’d prefer to know any thought you have on any game, how life is going, the dogs are still good etc.
If I’m on Twitter and someone is posting plays or there’s constant conversations about who’s on what… I’m likely to mute, unfollow and perhaps ignore any conversation involving what and who’s on what.
I take pride in making numbers and hell I devote too many hours a day to start wondering what Dr. Bob, Tailgate tent etc are on in College football and same goes for NBA and all the crushers in that market.
It was a lesson learned by losing a MLB season.
It started off way back in the forum days of RX and eog. In between the fights of random posters was this man posting his MLB every morning with massive CLV on MLs and I was cruising with totals and it seemed like a god send as this crusher would post his plays and win week after week.
Suddenly he started losing CLV in a pretty massive way and rapidly all profits were escaping him (& me) It was avalanche of losses followed by extreme volume. Do I keep following, do I track and see what holds in the next few weeks?
I could make money lines and slowly realized his numbers were just awful but he had this 5 week run and surely he would turn it around. Id make numbers and see if there were any matches and that would be a play.
Right around from +35 to +5 units he just quit! How could he?? Now I don’t even know if I have winners, I have no confirmation.
I would search forum after forum looking for others like him. Never quite trusting myself until july only to see my CLV was pretty damn good and results weren’t bad at all. Still I would ask dink, waz, Cory, Cory’s mom etc. what they were on. I needed that confirmation biase.
The best originator I had ever met at the time I discovered would create numbers for the next day at 9 am and then watch the screen for openers and track what moved and how aggressive.
He had no interest in betting openers but by the time he was ready to bet he had shaped his numbers to match the moves.
He was half brilliant originator and half steam chaser before he finally would hit submit.
He just lost faith for a bit. Think he worked it out eventually as he is among the biggest and better NBA winners of the last 2 decades.
I have to be able to have blinders on but also be completely focused on the task which is to beat the market. I have no control past that.
Everyone is different in this industry. Some originators want to know who, what and when something was bet. I’m of the thought that your numbers will end up being shaded towards theirs even subconsciously on some level.
If those people I respect have a differing opinion slowly my confidence escapes me.
Partnerships have different opinions on lines, plays and games but you have to remain vocal in your opinions. No one wants to be the one dummy who costs everyone but you should also be able to voice opinions and bet independently on those differences otherwise eventually there’s one voice and if you’re not him/her your eventually tailing someone else’s opinion, the group of one.
The last thing I’ll add is that I have bought a lot of touts in the past in sports I don’t follow.
I started off buying ras CFB which most know. Way way back in the day after oroginating for a year maybe 2 and was told they were the best.
Ed used to answer the phone to take the order and would even sometimes explain something about a play he liked.
I used that info to focus on the mac the next year as they had huge success with buffalo and marshall. I don’t think those teams were on my radar before then.
I learned NBA from listening to every word from 2 friends. I couldn’t even name 10 players but I wanted so badly to remain in this little chat group that I would spend hours trying to figure out what questions to ask that wouldn’t cross a line. They would give me plays but I wanted to know why it was a play without asking.
I would review every boxscore, watch as many games as possible and then ask the why?
You can use others information as a starting point. Surround yourself either online or in person with smarter people than yourself and find out what separates them from yourself and see if you can take a little bit of what they do but unless it’s a agreed partnership, don’t become reliant on them.
Be a pupil at all times but have the goal to become the professor at some point.
Valleys and peaks in this business… Make sure they’re your own if you’re working everyday on becoming the best originator you can become.
Thank you as always for the space,
Eddie
 

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
1
20d

I sometimes feel so blessed to know some many sharp gamblers and other times it wears on me.
I have a rule about my phone. If you know me then you probably know this to be true. I respond to 100% or all texts, dms and email almost instantly. If you call I answer even if asleep.
I’m a communicator in general. I’ve been going through it. Stuff I don’t want to talk about here or publicly but one thing that’s shifted is my appreciation for working.
I’ve dedicated no less than 4 hours a day of absolute quiet from all the interference of the outside world.
One person in particular started putting things truly in perspective on a call where he was just checking on me and how I was doing.
The conversation circled around to work and he explained how well MLB was going for him. I wasn’t aware he bet MLB as he specializes in NBA props, NFL sides and looking for +ev spots in exotics.
His approach was truly funny and elementary in that he plays on great teams and fades bad teams. He didn’t expect much in a way of ROI but quicky realized he values sleep over hard decisions these days.
Ed you can bet the dodgers everyday who are expected to win 103 games and not worry about their best hitter slumping and bet against the white Sox who are going to win 45 games knowing they don’t even have a best hitter or you can drive yourself crazy, working yourself to death. I choose to sleep and wake up and find out Ed.
Then we talked about NBA and he explained how he worked around 65 hours a week and that resonated with me but then he told me he never bet same game parlays by building them himself which I was unclear that was allowed to be honest.
Same night my good friend and poker partner sent some texts and we went back and forth for awhile. We specialize in limit mixed games and he leaves for WSOP tomorrow morning without me on the same flight for the first time in 3 years.
He will be tackling NO LIMIT hold em events a game he doesn’t play often with a bankroll free rolled by a massive skill edge in mixed games which I still try to dissuade him from even though this is his dream of grand delusion but…
The more we spoke he has spent 100s of hours running solvers, studying and memorizing every chart, studying opponents he can find film on and taking courses. He can make money just by showing up and studying soft cash game tables like any other year.
About a week later and I was speaking with a old partner and he was going on about, HOW MUCH HARDER IT IS NOW… Absolute bullshit I’ve decided.
It’s harder because no one that’s done this year after year does it with the same fury as they did in the beginning. For every 105 guys saying how hard this is, there is one who is wondering how much longer they’ll let him just keep winning. I was that one guy not long ago.
You mean all In have to do is rewrite 100k words of magazines, articles, listen to 150 hours of podcasts, rewrite by hand someones model, figure out what each player who entered the portal equates to a point spread on every team only 134 teams??
Oh wait you’ll surround me with 6 guys who are smarter than me and I can pick their brain too?
There wasn’t even podcasts a fucking decade ago! There was one preview magazine and it spent 100 pages telling you about teams from 20 years ago.
The market is so much harder?? Really?? What in the world are we even talking about?
I had 3 books out of the 29 featured on donbest and one book had all the power. I remember having to wait until Tuesday to bet to not move on a nickel… This was not that long ago!
I’ve had back to back mid NBA seasons and that can’t be right so in autopsy form I realized something. My confidence lies in my work. Shit work, no confidence.
I’m a strong favorite to crush CFB every year and if you find someone outworking me, fucking hire that guy, move him into a home and print.
However up until 2020 I outworked everyone in NBA too. I kept a notebook bigger than CFB and I tracked every single box score, studied every coach, assistant and bench problem.
Met a girl, bought a house and another, have nice things and can get CLV by pressing submit and well that’s fine but let’s face it making daily numbers and finding edges with others will get you some nice weeks but seasons? Nah probably not so much.
I was with Erin Renning at dinner before a nuggets game he flew in to sit courtside at. He kept excusing himself to look at his phone, very normal in my world. I thought he was sweating games. He was screenshotting every end of quarter score to study on the plane home.
Here’s where I knew I was fucking lazy. I remember thinking how crazy it was. Sorry ER.
He would later go onto add quarters, halves to his full game portfolio. He’s looking for a story and with that many screen shots he developed a script with a start, plot, subplots and finish… He flew home first class.
But it’s all so hard nowadays. Those markets weren’t even a thing 5 years ago… At least I gave him some good documentaries to watch if he ever retires or buys a soccer team in Europe like his biggest competitor.
But everyone beats me to the market and ruins it!!
I’ve been that guy for years that’s beating you to market. You have a alarm clock, set up alerts for limit increases, Im not waiting for you to tell me if my work was right or wrong but I also have to get down more… Oh wait.
2020 I drove 2.5 hours a night on average to hit overnights that couldn’t move and would slam coffee to stay awake for openers and limit increases everywhere. Then I paid someone and she did the driving for me and eventually she lost the drive to earn as she finally made enough to buy a home… It’s so hard though!
Now I might have to drive and bet with a huge edge again??
We are living in a alternate universe where hard work that you love doing is actually a way to make a living but we are all caught up on the past which was apparently easy? Did anything I just described was easy?
I’m determined to remain him and why not me? Why not us?
If you have this it’s all so hard mentality and want to tell me about, I have to apologize in advance as I being the communicator that I am will likely have to tell you that you’re full of shit and are likely to be a dog going forward.
Back to work I go. Senior care is not cheap, prepare accordingly is my last piece of advise this week.
Much love and thank you as always for the space.
Your friend,
Eddie.
 

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
30d

If I knew it all then would I do it again?
If they knew what they said would go straight to my head…
What would they say instead?- Eilish
I was revisiting these blogs last night for the first time in ages as they were moved here from the discord (thank you Logan, Parker and Ed) and I realized I may have painted a picture of someone who is not quite sure if he is happy with where he’s at and that in itself bothered me some.
Funny stuff has taken place recently. So let’s get to that.
I had lunch with a old pal on Monday that I hadn’t seen in forever. Something a very peculiar epiphany took place.
Did you know that when you loan money to someone that you no longer are friends once the person receiving the loan can’t or chooses not to pay back the loan?
It can be $200 for a plane to visit a dying aunt in 2010 but in 2024 that person who never paid back the 200 remembers it and it hangs onto their conscious as I’m one of the few or many they decided not to pay back and that changed the dichotomy of how one of you felt about one another this entire time.
I decided I respected the guy who’s been hiding from me for 14 years because I might want my 200 bucks while he’s buying houses, cars and having kids and shit than a psychopath that just gets me to back him in poker tournaments or asks for free rolls in sports they know they can’t win in.
The craziest part of this story is as I’m paying the bill for our first meeting in what I thought was 20 years, the guy says hey Eddie you know about that 200 I borrowed from you in 2010??
I still remember how incredible of a gesture it was for you to offer.
He never paid me back after this song and dance. The aunt died and he didn’t comeback for a year or something but I forgot all about the aunt, the 200 and I’m pretty sure I lost a friend or whatever the hell he was over the umm, gesture. Now I’ve done the inflation calculator and he owes me $430009 according to 2024 republican voters and I’m furious… So there’s also that.
I do think the funniest thing on X or whatever that I’m trying to ween myself off of these days (down to a paltry 6 hours a day) is politicians tweeting. You ever look at the like to comment ratio??? Whoever told Biden that Twitter was a good idea is likely the same who advised Kristi Noem to write a tell all and leave nothing out.
A “Have a blessed Friday” tweet… 20k likes 32k comments of full blown crazy. I love the comments, read the comments and laugh no matter who you vote for is my advice.
I would like to say that we have reached a stage of new found delusion in sports betting which I find encouraging. I prefer my colleagues as insane as possible.
A bunch of guys hired by sportsbooks who were actually bartenders, subway employees, construction workers and security guards in the Boston area 2 years ago didn’t show up to a VOLUNTEER roundtable to discuss things they have no actual idea of how they work that could be detrimental to the corporation stock prices and share holders confidence levels didn’t spill the beans on how they decide to limit winning players… Shocking indeed.
I fully expected a behind the scenes look at what draftkings looks for in determining a winning bettor and transparency has always been all of these legal books strong point so I’m just glad we almost got to the bottom of this…
In other news in the last 15 months Massachusetts got a river walk way, finished the 6 ramps and 5 new parks in the greater Boston area… They’ll be bullish on this like they were with heroin and fentany or the DIG.
Kaitlyn Clark is being talked about constantly which means the WNBA is being discussed which is a huge deal.
Charles Barkley, LeBron, every ex wnba player is being quoted daily from what I can tell and bad publicity, good publicity it’s all humongous for a league 5 games into a season. I’ve never heard anyone but gamblers say anything about the wnba this time of year before now.
I’m not going to pretend like I know anything about the league, the players or anything regarding the W but the very fact it’s a daily talking point let’s me know it’s bigger than it ever has been before and that’s awesome.
I got a chance to listen to a few podcasts regarding betting recently and one thing that really stuck out to me and it’s the same issue I have with VSIN everytime I’ve ever been on there or listen to their programs.
Stop telling your guests what they’re gonna be discussing. I tell this to every podcast host but no one ever listens because they want their show to flow in a direction that they are comfortable with and can dictate.
By losing the organic nature of conversation you actually end up with a prepared statement of just talking points. You’ve never heard someone say, “I’d have to think about it or I don’t know top of my head” on any of these shows. That’s not really how handicapping, betting or any aspect of life works.
Give the guest the topic and then just riff. Talk about all of it. If it’s a Tuesday of game week and I need you to tell me what game you want me to discuss and I need a list of talking points beforehand I’m a shit guest anyway.
I’m home for the first full day in eight and I am gardening today, enjoying the sun and the company of the dogs and the lady once she gets off work. I certainly love writing this blog at times. Today was one those times.
I’m not attending WSOP for the first time in 12 years besides 2020 and doubt I’ll get to betbash and I couldn’t be more at peace about being completely unselfish with my time for the summer.
Joke of the week
I hate the rainforest cafe. They take the rainforest theme WAY too far!
I was sitting there eating my chicken tenders and they bulldozed 40% of the restaurant with no warning!
Hope you and yours are doing amazingly well.
Thank you as always for the space,
Eddie
 

kane

EOG master
rnkyourmlkshk
11d

There was a time in my life that I can now look back and safely say that I started to figure it out. It was a series of lightbulb moments over a course of a year or two.
I was one if not the last person to play on full tilt poker. I had 28k in my account and was sitting at 2 2/4 horse and 1 3/6 LHE tables. That was all that was left of a site that I spent years in my office with Smooched asleep on the futon snoring away when at 1 am it logged me out and never opened again.
I would sit on 2p2 forum and looking for any hope to what would come next, when would my money arrive. I had around 7k to my name with nothing to do. I was unaware like the rest of the poker community of when my money (life roll) would arrive.
I would travel around playing any game that I could and find a little gig here and there mostly out of panic of when would I have enough money to pay off my credit cards and what, find a job?
I would fly out to commerce, hustler and Vegas before online poker went away and take unsuccessful shots at huge games I was completely unrolled and mentally unprepared for.
About a month of clueless to what I was going to do with my life. At age 30 I felt I didn’t want to stop playing cards and gambling but I also knew internally I wasn’t skilled as the high stakes players that I had played with in live games and my tilt game was too strong to be long for that life even if my bankroll came in the mail any minute.
I would play in a lot of mid small stakes games that first year and was grinding out a small living. Taking a backing deal for wsop cash games was a gut punch especially after I won.
I would fly out to California to see my father in Orange County once a year and would always end up playing at commerce for a day or two, normally going home with a lot less money than I came to California with.
This year would be no different, except it was. I had never entered Commerce with anything other than a goal of playing in the highest stakes I would feel comfortable with. Notice how winning wasn’t a priority?
I now needed to win. I was (am) a Omaha 8 specialist. The games in the small limit area I had never paid attention to prior to this trip.
As I sat down in a 6/12 limit game with a $300 buy in mid afternoon I was the only person really capable of playing the game. There was no one really folding hands pre flop. I had played well over 500k hands of Omaha in my life and I had never seen a game, players play without folding a hand for hours.
I didn’t know how to react. I was frozen. A year prior I would have laughed, left and told people about this bingo game they have at commerce… I needed to win. I won very little the first night as I watched various $400-600 pots as Asian men and women yelled at each other capping and bloating every street of every hand.
I drove home that night with this game in my head. I knew I had found something but I feared the variance and wasn’t even sure if I had the bankroll to play in this game as people rebought so often that many seemed to lose 1k or more. 12 bucks at a time!
I showed up the next evening and it was completely dead. I brought 2k with me (probably 25% of my bankroll) and as I sat down all the Asian men and women who were throwing chips around the night prior were replaced by older white men who were very exploitable and just there waiting for the traffic to clear before they headed home from work.
I know that I won a couple hundred and preferred the game this way but craved the action I saw the night before. Was it a one time thing?
I’d show up every night for a few days and would play with the old cranky men and win or lose a little and eat free food. I’d walk around the high stakes room and talk to all the men and women I knew and try to act like I belonged despite having no bankroll or way to play in the games they were in at that moment.
Two days before I was supposed to leave I show up and all the Asian men and women were back at it! They were screaming at each other and throwing chips around before they even got their hands.
Why today? Its a Thursday thing? Wait the list is 24 people deep? Where are the old regulars that were here yesterday?
Then I heard it. The announcement of seat open or EW your seat is ready was replaced by, “jackpot 2780” then a hour later “jackpot 3950”
Then it clicked!
Once the jackpot reached 2k of more everyone would go to that casino and play small stakes trying to hit the bad beat jackpot. They played Omaha because it had 4 cards instead of 2 and as long as 4 queens lost you would win the jackpot that was announced every hour. No one folds because that would mean surrendering the jackpot potentially!
I crushed. I played 20% of hands, knew that there was no bluffing and watched people regularly lose 2k chasing a 2k jackpot at 6 casinos. This isnt a commerce thing. This is a LA cardroom thing. I’d be at commerce Tuesday, Hollywood Park Wednesday, Hustler Thursday, etc etc. I extended my trip by 2 weeks.
I come home and kept thinking about Los Angeles poker and how can I afford to live in LA on a 3 big bet hourly and how miserable I would be living in LA… Impossible but I’ll visit Dad more and walk beaches which isn’t the worst life.
One day I’m talking with a friend and he plays tournaments and is telling me about how Blackhawk has a daily tournament daily that is juicy and begrudgingly I go with him for the horrific drive of 45 minutes up the windy, treacherous hill.
We are sitting there waiting for this tournament when I see a 30/60 limit hold em game with a bunch of familiar faces. It is a literal hall of fame of fame degenerate gamblers of Denver convention sitting at one table.
Two guys owe me money from when I ran games and I go listen to their excuses for fun but then I hear it… Bad beat Jackpot is 137,000!
They played limit because it was so much faster and it was just high stakes bingo them, there was less skill needed than playing even 2-5-100.
I would spend the next 3 years at those 6 tables. I never did go back to that 6/12 game at commerce.
I would regularly leave a rack of purple chips in my trunk or my car to skip buying in. I would keep track of the bad beat jackpot and if it hit, I would take time off knowing it would take awhile to build back up to get the truly bad players back to being interested in playing.
Let’s not get it twisted, I still had to win. The competition was bad but they could still get lucky. I had overcome crazy variance and learn to not be so results oriented in a different way. I took the DRIVE (home after losing at a casino) over 200 times I’d imagine in just 3 years.
That game was there all along it turned out but I only knew of good poker players who were never going to tell me of a soft game like that one, back then. Sounds like sports betting nowadays eh?
I did return to Commerce high stakes room and it turned out once you are properly rolled and used to live variance it was not exactly the hardest spot to earn.
I was looking at a legal sports book today and something become very clear to me. They are so focused on the Same Game Parlay Formula which is a jackpot system that they are willing to be completely open and vulnerable on so much because they know who they want sitting in the betting queue.
Find your game, study your opposition, plan accordingly and acknowledge there will be struggles along the way to where you are heading. Don’t wait for a friend to call to tell you where you should have been years ago.
Unfortunately sportsbooks limit and ban winning players and poker rooms find ways to kill themselves with rake, bad management and private games. There’s a window of opportunity in every endeavor. Don’t miss your window.
I hope you’re incredibly well.
Thank you for the space as always,
Eddie
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
Kane doing God’s work. Thanks very much.
And thanks to Eddie for agreeing to share.

Always enjoyed reading Eddie’s blog posts on the RAS Discord.
He’s a great story teller who has lived a life with so many ups and downs and challenges.
Thoughtful and useful ideas for problem solving smartly written always from a first person perspective.

Now I’m looking for my windows.
 

kane

EOG master
You ever have a perfect day and not even realize it? Or perhaps you were just to busy in the moment to really capture how great it was. I’ve come to realize that I had what I consider a perfect day not long ago.

I woke up at 5 am. I went to NYC bagel and was the first one there and it was freezing outside as I waited for them to open the doors.

I had all this anxiety the night before but I felt completely calm as I made 3 large wagers while they prepared 2 bagels. French toast with peanut butter and egg and bacon, hold the cheese.

I drank my coffee with 2 sugars and got a text asking where I was from Yee. I never wake up early on a Tuesday and she was startled I was missing. She confirmed that I was missed as she got the dogs ready for their walk with their little coats.

I hurried home, snuck them the 2nd bagel while she showered to get ready for work. She gave me a kiss and the dogs 3 kisses each and accused me of giving them treats which I vihametly denied and off we all went.

The cold never bothers me but on this particular morning as the temperature read 11 degrees on my phone I didn’t even feel the need to bundle up while listened to a new mix of music I had been working on while both Sooz, Oliver and I made our way to Harvey Park.

On the way back up Harvard the Mayor (he’s a neighbor who works out 4 hours a day but spends 3 and half hours talking to everyone at the gym about his 170 pound weight loss journey) stopped to make sure Id be at the gym soon, I assured him I would be.

I dropped the dogs off and gave them the remainders of the bagel they only got half way done with when mom interrupted us and I had to hide it.

Off to the gym where I struggled through 45 minutes of a new best of album recommendation from pitchfork and found a track I actually loved by the end. Cardio was over and I did 4 sets of chest and 4 sets of triceps and confirmed with Bret that he was still coming for Lunch at pho 96 at 1230.

Hurried home and showered and looked at donbest quickly to confirm that all 3 bets had +CLV, not that I cared in the Sac game. I knew that was a good bet.

I watched 30 minutes of complete garbage reality TV to make sure I could keep up with my sister Danielle and Yee. I tell them I hate it but I watch every minute like it’s the sweatiest of 4th quarters ever.

Hurried out the door giving both dogs there confirmation that Dad would be right back. The heat was set to 76 because Oliver prefers a hot house when Mom’s at work.

I arrive at pho 96 early as usual and in walks Pat. Pat is a longtime friend who has been sober for 5 months and is just getting it together, again.
I look around to see if I’m having a prank pulled on me as I didn’t invite him and he lives a hour away. I stand up and we embrace each other and in walks Teddy.

Teddy is about my favourite person ever. Owns a power plant and we hiked all of summer 2018 together and outside of Brets wedding in 2022 we hadn’t been able to link up as he has to be in Fresno for half of the year to operate his companies power plant. He and I almost died together on a hike and it’s my favorite friendship memory.

Then one by one all of my friends who live in Denver who I haven’t seen in ages keep showing up to pho 96. The same pho restaurant I eat at once a week alone but where Bret and I ate at 3 times a week for 9 years. Him plotting to take over the Denver real estate market and me planning to make it as a sports bettor.

In walks Bret a half hour later but the man of honor who pulled off the impossible. To get all of his friends in Denver together for a lunch.

We all made fun of Tony P never figuring out how to use chopsticks despite living in Asia for a year… Black men get that pass!! His favorite line came back to life. Can’t bike around Wash park but can always get a fork!!

We all make fun of each other. We all have the dirt on each other. Cactus Eddie because in Nicaragua I grabbed a cactus thinking it was a guard rail. Embarrassed, I denied grabbing a cactus and had to go see a Dr when my hand swelled to a baseball mit, that was 2015. I’m still cactus Eddie!

We all sat for 2 hours never talking about work, money, problems in life. Just reminiscing on the craziest parts of our pasts and congratulating Teddy on proposing, discussing how I’m going to propose.

I never wanted to leave, I don’t think any of us did.

I made my way home and called my Dad like I do every Tuesday and he was so happy I called as he received the new recliner massager I sent him as congratulations on 25 years of sobriety. He never brought up politics and instead told me of his new found love for walking a lake he never knew existed.

I got home in time to start making dinner for Yee and I made my chicken cacciatore with a sweet potato dish from my sister’s recipe book she gave me for date nights.

I listened to my Cfb podcasts and got lost in transfer portal thoughts and was completely content with the way college football has changed and how much work that means for me and well, everyone.

I looked out the back window and it was flurrying a little as Sooz made sure the squirrels knew she was bad ass even though they’ve been taunting her and winning the chase game since she was 6 weeks old. I ignored her barks for a change.

Yee called and wanted me to know she would be kicking my ass at pool that night. Every other Tuesday is competive date night. We bowl, play pool, mini golf, swim laps, we even tried the blink competition and whoever wins has to switch chore roles for a week… She really hates to mow lawns and I really loathe doing dishes by hand… It makes absolutely no sense, we have a perfectly good dishwasher!

I never turned on any games as I waited for her to arrive for dinner. I simply didn’t care, for one night I just didn’t have it in me to ruin my mood on the outcome of 3 games that I’ll never remember four months from then. I do remember the Dallas/sac under as I bet a angle around that time every game for maybe 10 games straight, it did okay.

We ate and talked about our days and how both were great but in different ways and we of course made fun of each other, as always.

She snuck some food to the dogs as I changed. I heard the treat jar and her whisper, go outside as they both ran through the dog door.

We go to a ghetto bowling alley in the worst neighborhood because they need the business as she always assures me as I park and lock the doors 3 times with the fob.

She’s 4’10 and she never doesn’t crack me up using that long bridge cue stick but she’s not bad and even if she was I suddenly can never make the eight ball until she catches up.

She has her one drink and gets tipsy immediately as she celebrates her victory and talks trash the whole way home. 4-3 sucka! You really think you can beat me! She’s ALI and I’m Frazier. Maybe next week I won’t scratch on the 8ball 3 times in one night.

We get home and one more family trip around the block so the dogs can say hello to no one in particular.

I check the scores and go 2-1. I do exactly no work for the next day. It’s been too perfect of a day to not live in the present as we get into bed and I forget the worry of the screen, the numbers and the injuries.

No dogs in the bedroom on Tuesdays.

Life can change so fast. I think about this day, almost everyday currently. Not that my life is bad but the dynamics of this day could never happen currently.

Find something you love and let it kill you- Bukowski

Thank you so much for the space.
Your friend,
Eddie
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
Finding and experiencing a perfect day is important and it is always worthy of acknowledgement if not celebration.

There is a school of thought that perfect days can be engineered and managed to where it can become an entitlement
that is deserved as an outcome of hard work and thoughtful planning.

Many years ago I had a boss who was very skilled at this.
Happiness engineering was something he focused on daily with thoughtful analysis.
He would always be setting boundaries and testing boundaries as to what was feasible and what was not.

He was a very selfish dingus but he possessed many high level intellectual skills nevertheless.

One example of this was the time I was at a nearby casino for an extended lunch hour.
It was noticeable to him to the extent he called me in his office to confront the fact I was out of office for almost two hours.

Reason is I won $12k on a slot machine and was waiting to get paid.

There’s a threshold where some casinos do a thorough examination of the slot machine to ensure there are no manipulations or malfunctions.
After a delay the jackpot was finally verified and paid with a combination of check and cash at the cage.
I felt really satisfied indeed with my lunch.

My boss and I were close enough that I told him the truth.

I was preparing for some kind of disciplinary warning but what was discussed was unexpected.

My boss was quickly doing some financial math calculations and reached the conclusion that I was suffering work stress
and I needed a golf day at an exclusive club to relieve the stress. The tee time was booked.
We were salaried so of course paid for the day and the boss knew me well enough that after my windfall
I wouldn’t hesitate covering all golf and lunch costs for both of us.

So in summary, perfect days can be random or a happy accident but they can also be planned and probably should be planned because life is short.
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
Is the guy still selling plays?
Eddie is with RAS Right Angle Sports. Owner Edward Golden.
Kane is a member. He knows much more than me.

Eddie is their resident CFB expert and a winner.
No one outworks Eddie.

Edward Golden made a lengthy public apology this spring for their RAS failure with NBA last season iirc.
Long term the service has been a winner though.
 

kane

EOG master
Eddie is with RAS Right Angle Sports. Owner Edward Golden.
Kane is a member. He knows much more than me.

Eddie is their resident CFB expert and a winner.
No one outworks Eddie.

Edward Golden made a lengthy public apology this spring for their RAS failure with NBA last season iirc.
Long term the service has been a winner though.
AFAIK Eddie isn't selling plays, don't know if he'll be posting any on RAS forum, if he does I'll ask permission to post them here
 

Patrick McIrish

OCCams raZOR
Appreciate the info Never.

I know at one point he was for sure selling plays, I had to eat some crow on that one.

The other forum were all saying he's going tout and I didn't think so, surprised me at the time.

Either way I'm glad Kane brings it over, always a good read (when not talking politics).

Nice when hard work is rewarded.
 

Drnkyourmlkshk

EOG Dedicated
Eddie wins in sports and then losses it all back and then some playing poker.
Lol I'm bored at a 50/100 LHE game as I type maybe I should quit while I'm ahead now that I've read this!
Haha I've not had a losing year at poker since 2017 but I also don't play as much anymore. I don't play at all during football season and for a quarter of NBA season.

I've had 2 runners steal decent/large amounts in 3 years and got stiffed huge by a agent/mover recently so yeah I'll still be moving markets every morning for longer than anticipated.

I'll clear up the other stuff quickly while I'm here.
I've never sold my plays directly. I was partners with waz, dink, Andrew and waz started bettoriq and I followed him there. Did a weekly podcast and you could buy 7-10 plays of mine a week. That dissolved as Waz scaled up to mid 6 figure units with Eryn Running and Andrew.

I moved over to RAS where I would say around 30% of my plays of our huge team gets released. We never had a losing season in CFB at bettoriq and same holds true at ras since I joined in 2020.

My NBA is private and I work with one partner and a trusted mover. MLB my partner and I have never discussed it but I think he would be viahemetley opposed to the idea.

Thank you for the kind words also want to say that I work awfully hard for sure but I do feel there are others working harder especially on AI/models and guys at RAS who do 5 sports a year. I take off 6 weeks a year and that's insane to them.

Also I haven't spoken politics publicly since COVID. I lost one of my best friends in the world to political differences and that was enough for me.

I do feel the problem in this presidential vote this year is these guys just aren't old enough!

Continued success and luck to everyone of you and thank you for taking the time if you choose.
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
I've had 2 runners steal decent/large amounts in 3 years and got stiffed huge by a agent/mover recently so yeah I'll still be moving markets every morning for longer than anticipated.
That’s just terrible.
And sorry for your loss(es)

But my understanding is that it’s typical for professionals.
Part and parcel of scaling the business is the need to always be exploiting more good outs and edges.
And the legalized landscape won’t ever fill the void.

We’d always like to think these rabbit hole adventures end with the phrase ...”but in the end it was worth it”.
That’s what Lem Banker implied when he talked about all his sketch runners in that gambling movie with the Shrink.

Chalk it up.
 
Last edited:

kane

EOG master

7 Reasons You Are Likely A Losing Bettor


I was recently going over a checklist of things I think are prudent to win long-term with a good friend who’s dealing with a bad stretch of variance but the further we dug we found some leaks.

I compiled a quick list of things he should consider before deciding to put forth more time, effort and money into a season that’s not going well. I decided I’d share it with everyone.

I’ve done everything on this list to some degree and made hundreds of other mistakes over the last 15 years. Let’s dive in.

  1. HOW PREPARED ARE YOU?
    How are you preparing for a season? How much have you dived into what you’re going to bet?
Nowadays there are new rule changes, more player and coach movement than anytime in history. Money and motivations of teams and players have changed dramatically in the last 5 years.

Every pro that’s made it a living is prepared at least a month out from a season. They know what they want to attack, who’s a fade or back team or players.

There should no blind spots the first 30 days of any season you are looking to invest in. Fully prepared for anything within reason. There’s really rabbit holes with endless information for every single sport and season these days. There’s no such thing in my opinion as over prepared.

  1. ARE YOU REALLY FOCUSED?
I can tell you that this in my most difficult trait for myself personally.
It’s not enough to just know players, strengths/weaknesses of entire teams but now you have to focus on so much.

A. The market is constantly moving in a season and you have to be constantly cognizant of how your opinion and numbers match up with the market.

B. Y ou also have to be completely aware of injuries, lineups, roster moves and their worth to the lines.
Weather, refs, umpires etc and if it’s something you need to keep a eye.

C. Lastly you’re going to want to devote some time to watch teams you’re less familiar with, study coaches and follow beat writers.
You’re going to be focusing on winning for 3-8 months depending on the league and sport… Basically everyday

  1. HOW IS YOUR RECORD KEEPING?
Get a 3rd party for this one. Betstamp, excel that automates results but don’t take any shortcuts here.
You can learn more about your biases and find increasingly interesting information if you’re willing to be 100% honest with yourself.

The more detailed the records the more you’ll learn about what’s losing and figuring out where you’re doing poorly with quick as possible is the goal, that and taxes are easier with good record keeping methods.

I divide every division and conference and go in alphabetical order by team. In order of importance

CLV
W/L divided by sides and totals
2 minute variance W/L
Money +/- amount
That’s it.
I can pinpoint normally what teams I’m wrong on market wise and also what’s costing me in large and small sample sizes by devoting a hour or two every two weeks of any season.

  1. UNWILLINGNESS TO EVOLVE
    What wins tonight, tomorrow, next week or next season has no bearing on the future. Every game it’s own entity, every season changes happen and there are things being thrown at us in waves every year now that no one has experienced.
I’ve been through downswings of all kinds but the worst is not being able to separate my biases for a coach or team that won early in a season but as the season progressed so did the market and all my early season profits disappeared.

There are people using the same philosophies, angles and information that they used a decade ago. Many aren’t winning or aren’t maximizing their ROI out of pure ego and willing to learn new tricks as a old dog.

  1. BANKROLL MANAGEMENT
    I likely should have made this the number one.
    There’s really nothing more important than bankroll management. I’m a admitted nit when it comes to my bankroll.
I also have some mental struggles so I bet what makes sense to me personally and also keeps things comfortable both financially and psychologically.

Im incapable of giving good bankroll mgmt advice. It’s too personal.
Here’s a stab at it without knowing someone’s situation personally.

Bet with a goal and a stop loss and if you’re risk adverse you should bet your edge once you’ve figured out exactly what that edge is ROI wise for as much as you can handle.

If you find yourself miserable sweating every close game or in a physically altered mindset while watching a game. Bet less, possibly a LOT less.

If you’re prone to chasing losses or tilt, seek help (being very sincere) asap with a professional.
There’s no shame in it and if you can get all that worked out, you can comeback with new insight… Beats going bust.

1-2.5% of a bankroll per unit is standard advice. Sounds fair enough to me.

  1. WHAT ARE YOU BETTING AND WHY?
    This subject is really simple for me.
    Every new bettor I meet now is hooked on parlays. Every young person that seems interested in betting sports is constantly telling me about this +2400 they hit for 10 bucks a few weeks ago.
I’ve never met a professional parlay bettor in the last 24 years that I can recall. I’ve also never met anyone that hit a big enough parlay to retire.

I did once know a man who won 150k on a scratch off ticket… He got even for a lifetime he told everyone.

Focus on winning one straight bet at a time and gradual gains season after season. It’s not as exciting in the beginning stages of bankroll growth. There’s nothing glamorous about going bust but there’s a decent living to be made… Your choice.

  1. ARE YOU BURNED OUT? HOW’S YOUR LIFE BALANCE?
The biggest challenge of being hyper focused on a season or multiple seasons is balancing life.

Some can be great fathers, husbands, friends while spending 9 hours sweating results and doing great work. This is rare.

My sister’s birthdays happen in football season. I haven’t wished them happy birthday in person in 15 years. I never celebrate my birthday (mid November 2 sports going) until a day off in December (I have 2 days off a month) september-March.

Burnout rate in bettors is growing among the best. I used to work 356 days a year. 3 days off MLB and NBA ASB and the week of no lines for bowl season was always enjoyable in some cruel way.

I’m getting older and can tell you that everyday of your life you can find 20 hours a week to work on something.

Everybody I know is hitting a wall. I hit mine right before COVID hit.

Everyone gets into gambling at a high level so they don’t have to work for anyone else and end up outworking all of their friends who work corporate jobs it seems.

Take time off, travel, be around loved ones, have sex. Let your mind go. You can handle the stress at a later day and you will. There’s no reason to work yourself to death.

There’s going to be games to bet on long after you’re gone and you’re never going to remember a good or a bad stretch of any particular season with much clarity after a few years removed, I promise.

If you think you might be burnt out, you probably are and the second this becomes a job on a loop you are in trouble in my experience.

I appreciate all the dms regarding my family the last couple months. I’ll give a life update in the next week or two.

Please be prepared, keep good records, keep evolving and take enough time off to enjoy the winning when it happens and relax from all the focusing.

You’re the best and thank you for the space as always.
Your friend,
Eddie
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
I’ve done everything on this list to some degree and made hundreds of other mistakes over the last 15 years.
Many great ideas in this blog.

I strongly agreed with everything discussed here but I think it’s especially noteworthy that the author acknowledged he’s made
hundreds of other mistakes over the last 15 years.

So you could say that while you’re closing some of your leaks you will probably find more mistakes you weren’t aware of.

And the action plan needs to be tailored to the player.
If you don’t drink, you don’t have to put drinking on your list of mistakes.
Similarly if you are a tilt monkey always chasing losses, this belongs right at the top of your list.

Toyota used to speak with pride about their culture of continuous improvement.
The same should apply here. Always be asking why did I lose this week or this month.

This is no small undertaking when the majority of sports bettors are grappling with an escapism problem.
A reality check is the last thing they want.

Alan Boston also deserves credit for these comments, below, he made about this topic in that gambling movie with the Shrink.

“You get really good at something by eliminating mistakes.

You don’t get great at something by being a genius.

Because how many genius things do you do in your line of work?

Occasionally you’ll have a genius thought like, Wow look at me.

You know? How fucking smart am I? ...

And then?” ...(shrugs)
 

kane

EOG master

Time Is The Most Valuable Thing A Man Can Spend


Life changed for me 10 weeks ago.

My step father who I wrote about in the past and who’s been the rock in our family fell at 4 am using the bathroom.

We had just installed guard rails around the house 2 weeks prior. He had been couch bound for around 3 years. Getting up only to do daily chores. Using his walker to feed the dogs, chickens and my mom’s new goats.

He helped my adopted brother and sister with their homework from the couch and would make sure he made it to the dinner table every night.

My brother heard him fall and thankfully helped my mom at 66 years old carry him to a chair where they realized he wasn’t breathing well. He went to the hospital, again.

This time was different. They found his emphysema was causing apathy in his left leg and right foot and his blood oxygen was dangerously low. 75%-85% the first week in the hospital before they moved him to a long term senior rehab center.

No matter how prepared you are in life for certain obstacles, nothing will prepare you for hearing your mom cry.

Nothing in life prepared me to see both sisters refuse to leave the hospital their dad was in. No job, husband, brother, dogs at home were going to remove them from his bedside as he stared off ashamed to have caused all of this as he put it.

I became quick to help. I took over his chores and help my mom where I can. Nothing surprises me now.

She doesn’t know how to lock her own home of 36 years, Wally handles all the keys. Doesn’t know how to turn on any TV in the home, that’s Wally’s job. Bills? He pays them.

14 and 16 year old brother and sister don’t know how to use the microwave or the stove because he apparently gets up to do both for them? Mind boggling.

I got used to sleeping 70 miles from my own bed. Little by little we all got used to our routines.

I have to tell you that I’m not as worried about Wally as I am my mom and sisters. They’re so in love with their husband and father.

I’ve felt a lot but anger in our entire system of elderly care in this country is my biggest enemy. I can safely attest to a few things that everyone should know.

If you have a loved one and they’re getting up there in age. The hospital, the rehab centers, the senior care center they do not give a shit about you, that person or that family. You’re a number, a bed and a billing address.

2 weeks in the hospital should have been 6, 4 weeks in the rehab center should have been a year but that insurance company is going to fight you tooth and nail. You can appeal and plead even when someone has a teacher’s union health insurance it becomes a waiting game of when is he going home.

Then he comes home and my mom, sisters and are to take care of him.
Physical therapists stop by the house 3 times a week, occupational therapists stop by twice a week, nurse daily.

Then it’s a series of gadgets and oxygen lines that everyone of us just hopes we listened to the instructions were given on a 20 minute discharge/fast learning course.

The biggest obstacle is Wally has lost some cognitive intelligence. He is tired and wants to be left alone. He doesn’t want to do his up and down exercise every other hour, he doesn’t want to play the simple 20 question game or wheel of fortune and he one day wants to be left alone and the next day wants to know why everyone is leaving him alone.

3 ambulance rides in 3 months and he’s exhausted. My mom and sisters have aged in the last months I can see it. They’re battling and I suggested family therapy which was actually hilarious as my mom was a therapist at one time (I always forget) and quit because she didn’t believe in her work, she chose social work.

I work on college football, bet my MLB and try to never look at my phone in the families presence. It’s such a hard habit to break.

Do I really need to know what the royals score is right now? I asked myself this while I would visit Wally in the senior center every week, same question.

My relationships have grown stronger. Yee and I celebrated 4 years in June. We didn’t see a lot of each other and the last few weeks we have really made the best of it. Hiking, cooking, her giving me detroit lions updates and watching her action movies before I work on college football every night.

I’ll be the best man in another wedding. Third time now, I think I’m running out of good joke material for speeches. Teddy a great friend finally popped the question after 5 years and their trying to have a big family right away.

I drove far too long but got to see Bret, my best friends stand up comedy. Apparently sky diving, snowboarding Japan, Canada and Americas largest slopes while being helicoptered onto them wasn’t enough he now wants to stand on a stage and not make people laugh!
He keeps telling me it’s getting better…

A runner who ripped me off and we were very close before she stole someone’s bankroll that I vouched for her.

She contacted me and we had coffee and while she had no money for me, she did confess to a drug problem and 6 weeks of sobriety. I don’t know if she will stay clean but in that moment, I didn’t know how to feel. It had been more than a year.

I was so hurt not by the money, that comes and goes in my world but the fact she could rob me, me! I gave her everything and she threw it away for 10 days of getting high. She confessed all of this and asked for my forgiveness and a payment plan but I know that payment isn’t coming but the closure was so important to me, it came when I needed it most.

Chan and her mom are moving to Cambodia which hurts but they bought 2 very small homes in the ghetto in 2005 in Denver for 200k each…
They’re gonna live like the queens that they are.

I kept thinking they were bluffing and I would see Chan at my house with her money fanny pack and her notebook every mon-wed morning of football season but when the for sale sign came up on her yard last Monday I knew it was all too real. That’s life, it hurts a little and I can’t be any prouder of one the best people I’ve ever met in my life.

I didn’t make it to wsop and still lost money, that’s a first. I don’t think I’ll make it to bet bash but I might try to get there for a night.

I’m going with Yee to her nieces wedding next week in North Carolina and we will begin planning our own soon after.

Time is flying and I’m trying to make the most of it. It goes so, so fast.

I’ll get into work updates and regular scheduled gambling talk next blog.
Thank you so much to all of you who reached out and all the messages.

Thanks for the space as always,
Eddie
 

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
13h

Greetings from Beach County, North Carolina.
I haven’t taken a day off since who knows how long doing CFB work and the first night I do, insomnia so welcome to a blog of rambling thoughts.
I also haven’t taken a week off from thinking about goals for this upcoming seasons and how I want to operate more efficiently and effectively not just within my friendships and relationships but work. How I want to handle everything differently, better.
I’ll share a few things that separate me from most when it comes to sports betting.
I hate following others in any capacity. Partners know this about me. I will beg you to take my totals if you’re doing sides well. You do CBB, here’s my NBA. You do MLB sides, here are my totals.
I’m the strongest believer in CLV ever. I would rather have CLV than win as a originator. If I am getting negative close but winning I know that’s going to regress and then I’m lost as to why the market never agreed in the first place and I have results of a short sample to prove I was smarter than the market from not long ago… The market and karma are one in the same, both will catch up to you.
What makes having partners so hard is that I never know what they know and I don’t have time to figure out if I agree with it or not, Im just following after all.
In the end Im never going to have my own CLV to prove anything as to right or wrong.
It’s all one big figure being paid one way or another. When I’m paying Im lazy and can do better and when I’m being paid?? Hot damn, God bless this easy money game!
However I’m now working on someone else’s schedule. I’ll put my MLB partner up against anyone you got, period but he sends me plays while they’re singing the anthem 25% of the time, moves the market 5-10cents the other 25% of the time and I disagree with the play I’m not supposed to know anything about 40% of the time but I press submit 100% of the time…I’m committed until they commit me in this life.
We only argue once a month somehow and I consider him the closest of friends despite him being in Turkey one day, Italy the next week and hiking Colorado trails next week after we check on my stepdad.
Now I’m going to talk badly about modelers in some capacity but this is just my experience so apologies if you’re the rare modeler who this doesn’t attain to but you can possibly consider the end goal which might help you earn more going forward.
Here is my POV
Modelers who are extremely dialed in and crushing close will achieve larger seasons than mere mortals will ever see.
Flipside when it goes bad, it can go bad to a point of no turning back and a bad season, can become a unexplainable nightmare.
Adding, subtracting metrics and manually updating constantly. Same dead sides over and over.
The biggest upside I see in modelers is a desirable unattached reaction to results. My NBA partner for sides watched maybe 10 games in a entire season and bad beat? What bad beat, meh. Model got it basically right so whatevs.
I’m over here watching 48 minutes of a Toronto/Detroit game throwing remotes trying to dodge 7 points in the final 46 seconds in game 78 of two tank teams. However I can help the modeler.
I can’t just keep losing money on the same dead side because it’s pain inducing but in my limited experience it feels like models can have that same dead side until it’s too late. I catch it long before in my watching and process of dinosaur methods.
Who’s the best modeler in the world in NBA, now NFL, let’s look at Euro football modelers. What do they all have in common? They all have partners who look for subjective input for them.
None work alone. Same as me only flip it.
I don’t necessarily want your NBA or CFB totals but if you have a number that maybe is different than mine let’s find out why and which one the market gets us closer to the cup with. Of course I normally only want to know your number once mine has failed (half kidding) but nonetheless.
Next subject
A few things in life will be bother me less in life than when a gambler of any kind but especially one who works hard is referred to as a degen or degenerate.
In a world of not being able to watch a game without 15 commercials for books, am and fm radio with shows being sponsored by draft kings and MGM 24/7, 10 emails a day on sgp promos, YouTube slot promoters, rake/vig increases on +EV or even neutral shit it feels unless you’re old enough to know better, the average man is being lead to slaughter before he can even figure out if he had a chance to figure it out.
Let’s calm down on the judgement and name calling in our community for a change. Everyone of us have had stretches or seasons we weren’t proud of. Most of us put a lot more effort into that downswing and had no clue if it’d ever end in our deepest fears.
We can be better than name calling is all I’m saying.
Next…
There was a topic in elihus book regarding MLB and correlated parlays which I really thought was over the top on what’s shareable as far as +ev made public.
For that I commend him, I don’t agree with sharing data like that but I also don’t believe anyone has the right to say what edges people should relay to the public.
I want everyone who thinks that sports betting in
2024 to think about this especially the old timers who feel edges are drying up and things are becoming harder.
Betbash will have what 1000 people? 20+ panels? So that’s likely rough estimate 200-400 people with a edge looking to talk to others about their edge and learn to add or find a new one. There will be more betbashes, more Sloan’s, more whatever… The market is getting too big to turn back now. Pick a brain, let them pick yours.
People are writing books for $20 that give out edges that have been around for 25 years that books apparently have no interest in correcting the price on.
Odds pages are lowering their costs and adding props this fall. Oh and there’s more than just one that crashes every football Saturday nowadays.
There are 200+ YouTube channels that are gambling related with actual intelligence behind them and it’s only growing daily.
This means everytime you drive somewhere, every trip you take, every time you sit on the toilet you can educate yourself absentmindedly or engrossed and infinitely.
I just know that I prefer winning with others and learning in fascination of what others think, like and feel about things.
Find your niche and love it hard.
Thank you for the space and best of luck to all of you as always.
Your friend,
Eddie
 

texaswizzard

EOG Dedicated
Seems like NFL is so much easier to handicap now with just 32 teams and injury reports every day from mid week on. CFB not reporting injuries and only the Big 10 reporting who's available Sat mornings at 10 AM ET has become a cluster fuck. The portal has made it so the pros and people studying during the summer have no real edge as most CFB teams now have more than 50% turnover in starters from 1 year to the next. It almost makes sense to watch every team play 2-3 games before having any real feel on them.
 

Neveragain

EOG Dedicated
If there’s one constant I admire with Eddie’s blog posts it’s the overarching positive attitude towards the grind.
While he details his many pitfalls, he always writes confidently knowing that with hard work
the aggregate results will always tip in his favour.
A positive attitude is the very first step to any endeavour.

A side note with so many YouTube Channels, I’ve personally listened regularly to wager talk with
The Prez, Bryan Leonard and Carmine Bianco specifically with their hockey segments.

While they’re not always right with their picks, they always share obscure nuggets of information that I wasn’t aware of.
Bryan Leonard in particular always tries finding a case for the other side, which is interesting to me because I’m almost
always on a high or medium chalky market side too often.
 

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
2d

A few months ago I really started taking a long journey of what has made me uncomfortable with my work of late. The confidence factor escaped me in the tail end of NBA.
I go to a therapist, I work out a lot, I don’t drink or smoke, have a great support system of friends from all walks of life I would like to think and am rarely not amused by my wonderful dogs and long time girlfriend.
I have had a hard summer with just a ton of obstacles that I won’t bore anyone further with but it also allowed for a lot of alone time and self reflection.
I rarely think about where my anxiety began. I used to think it was being robbed at gun point while running a poker game when I was 27 or when my best friend killed himself or going bust at commerce at 29 years old.
Traumatic events so to speak but I think it actually came from a fear of failure while being hyper focused on chasing unreal expectations over a accumulated lapse of time.
I’ve taken probably a thousand bad beats in the last 25 years. I don’t remember many but I remember one so vividly that I can somewhat recall every play in the 2nd overtime because I was so frozen in the moments of this huge swing that I really felt would cost me a incredible season.
What would that look like? It was alarming and unrealistic but it meant that much to me at that time… It was 2015 Marshall vs Kent.
I don’t necessarily relate to others that well when it comes to work. If you have a salary or a hourly job and it sucks, you dislike it or you love it. You always come home with something.
You can take vacations and get paid even. Health insurance is included normally. Some of these jobs have retirement packages apparently. That’s not the comfort zone that I live in.
I’ve tried that a few times and I simply don’t thrive in it.
I’m driven by fear. I’ve never seen a normal, well adjusted professional gambler of any kind at 65. I’ve never met a bet everyday, on everything win at everything (groups excluded) for long. Time isn’t friendly or kind in this game. The fear grows a little every year.
I have to confess that I really didn’t want to work on college football this April and May. It was the first time where life events were piling up but I kept thinking someone was out working me, would find everything and eviscerate the market before I would need for the confidence I need to make numbers by August.
Work is normally my greatest distraction when life is turning into a bumper sticker slogan but I really wanted to be present. I worked on football 53 nights in a row and honestly loved every moment but that created some guilt as well, truthfully.
I’m not like you, thankfully for you. I’m going to copy every word by 3 authors that they write for 8 months and all 100,000+ words and cliff notes that to hopefully make perfect sense of what I have read.
It takes me 300 hours every off-season, used to take me less time but portal, NIL and coaching carousel. There lies another insecurity. What if all the work isn’t enough? I’ve never had it happen but it’s entirely possible, what will that look like financially and better yet…emotionally.
I watch every minute of every game while taking notes. Every game I grade my pregame notes and give grades to offense and defense. Every loss I feel something. Every win I feel something and I learn what I have right and wrong at a faster tempo which grows my confidence.
I just hate that I’m waiting for 10 am or 5 PM to watch TV for 6-15 hours at a time. It’s the most non logical thing you can attempt to explain to someone else.
However I believe that all the watching losses hurts your self esteem. Even if you’re good and I mean a absolute crusher you’re going to lose a lot. If you can watch a 2 hour film and become emotionally moved imagine watching let’s conservatively call it 60 hours a month of losing games it becomes so magnified.
Death by a thousand paper cuts in essence.
I don’t have all the answers but I’m positive sweating winners and losers without a purpose is regrettable.
These are always the most sleepless nights of the year for me. The weeks before every game kicks off and while I won’t take a full day off until April this is where I find out if it all pays off and by how much.
There will be memories of nights I really didn’t want to look into offensive line snap counts, I didn’t want to read and rewrite a team page, listen to a podcast and take notes and I really didn’t want to review (f**k) all 51 teams that cost me money in a successful season but I did… It’s what I do.
I spend a large amount of time around gamblers.
One thing that is becoming clear to me no matter how successful someone is in this industry from the biggest bettors, HOF blackjack players, 6 time bracelet winners, big movers, big agents and bookmakers no is satisfied.
Everyone has this next venture, this project, this multi decade investment, hell some are even into political fund raising these days.
I don’t think I relate to any of that either. I want to be present in my wins more so than ever. Time is fleeting, winning is supposed to be celebrated and I haven’t done a good job of embracing the winning as much as I have fully embraced the losing when it occurs.
I normally stop this blog during the season but this year I’m going to give you a monthly recap of all the lucky bounces. The opposite of a bad beat report. I have a few other blogs lined up that I hope to get around to writing as well.
So starting October win or lose for three months you’re stuck with me. Hope that this idea can at least cause a smile during election season for someone.
The hope is no matter how ugly it gets I (we) can focus on the victories and get back to that feeling of where the love to win originated. You absolutely can tell me about your wins all season as well.
I feel it’s worth trying.
I hope you are enjoying your last few weeks of sanity! Thank you as always for the space,
Eddie
 

kane

EOG master
drnkyourmlkshk
18d

For every minute of anger you sacrifice 60 seconds of peace of mind- Emerson
This is my favorite time of year. I spend my mornings sleeping in, my afternoons walking the dogs around the city or finding hiking trails.
I do chores while discovering music, I cook dinner with a little more patience. I spend more time with my mom and Wally on the phone trying to find humor in our current conundrum.
I have four weeks of peace before it all starts. The calm before the storm, if you will.
She knows as well and has started making plans with her friends to keep herself busy on Saturdays which I appreciate but it makes me sad as well.
I found like almost all of Twitter that draftkings and its’s asking their clients to pick up the tax tab beyond absurd. Win or lose you’re going to pay vig? This is the most asinine thing you’ll ever hear or read in their justification.
This is a company who seeks out problem gamblers and gives them VIP hosts and accounts but will limit someone they suspect (no actual proof needed) might win giving them zero ability to profit much of anything at all.
I was semi raised by maybe the best and easily the longest tenured book in Denver. He used to give a pie to every guy who lost 2 weeks in a row. He never wanted anyone to go full on broke though, that’s the worst fear of any book or agent is a broke sheet.
These legals are working with a set of rules that even the Mob would think is criminal. They’re making it impossible to beat a game that is incredibly difficult to have any edge at all to begin with.
I’ve known a lot of BM’s and agents over the years but one said something that’s always stuck with me, “the best can never win at the rate or the amount that the worst losers can lose at and it’ll never be that close of a race” with that in mind, how would a billion dollar company think they need to extend their advantage?
With the capital they have they could spend so little of their overhead to hire the most talented men and women on that side of that counter and make infinitely more than the short sighted version of bookmaking they’re doing now.
I can’t be bothered by the things I can’t control but its entirely frustrating and so easy to get angry over what could be great for everyone involved being squandered in such a foolish manner.
I can’t go to betbash and that saddens me. I can’t do coffee group this month for the first time in 3 years, which really sucks as well but I wouldn’t feel great about doing either.
My mother and sister go back to work Monday and for the first few days I’m going to attempt to help where I can.
The thing I’ll miss most about betbash is discussing college football with so many. I respect everyone’s opinion and I love intelligent conversations about a upcoming season.
Im uncomfortable talking in length about any team for too long but will answer what I feel confident about in spurts.
I want to attempt to do the same thing here. I did some Q&A’s on our discord the last 2 years.
I’ll do a Q&A starting this Monday evening where we can go over power 4 conference prices for futures where before this season I have never paid attention to but I think there’s certainly some juicy prices and it will be a good starting point.
All opinions and questions will be welcome.
If it goes well and you guys enjoy it I’ll do a NBA futures discussion at some point preseason as well.
I hope you are able to disagree civilly with relatives and friends about politics. I hope you’re laughing and smiling more than anything else in a time where it’s not coming easy to do for so many.
Thank you for the space as always. Your friend,
Eddie
 
Top