EOG's Best Bet thread for Friday, September 13

KevinStott11

EOG Senior Member
#20
Saturday, September 14, 2019—141 Army -17 -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

3:30 pm EDT/12:30 pm PDT (NFL Network)—I am pulling back on backing the Impact in MLS vs expansion FC Cincinnati for a fourth NCAAF Pick this week. Even though it was going to be a solid an FCC Fade, the Impact have lost 15 times, only have 42 goals and were already defeated in their only lifetime meeting at Cincinnati (2-1). So we lay Lumber like we always do about this time in September, and back another service academy (Navy also a pick) here in Army (1-1 SU/ATS), who almost upset Michigan at The Big House in Week 2.

This Point Spread is already up to 17½ at most Offshores (Friday, 12:34 pm PDT), so I will probably post this on Friday as soon as I finish and proofread so you wise eog “Get the best of it” chaps smart enough to seek out that key NCAAF number of 17 will have at least one “Out” Offshore with a bunch of 17’s still everywhere here in Sin City where we are having our third straight beautiful day—a new record for 2019? I think all of the 17’s here in Las Vegas will be gone by kickoff, especially with the matchup, the General Public’s tendency to bet chalks late and the Offshore shops usually being a harbinger of line movement direction.

Last season, UTSA (1-1 SU/ATS) had trouble scoring Points (14.2 ppg, #129 of #130; Rutgers 13.5) and the Roadrunners will be up against it here against the Black Knights who were the #1 Rushing team in FBS in 2018, averaging 317.3 ypg. So the big question here, is Army equipped with the same level Skill guys (QB-RB-WR) as last season? Kelvin Hopkins Jr. (121 yards, 3 TDs) returns at QB and runs more than he passes (5/12, 96 yards, TD/INT) and played in 2018, RBs Connor Slamka (Injured LW) and Sandon McCoy are solid 3.3 ypc-type rushers with WR Christian Hayes the best hands.

Looking at Army’s (Offensive) numbers (32.3 ppg in 2018) closely reveals some Freakiness: Its QB is its leading rusher, its leading Receiver is a RB (Artice Hobbs IV, 3) and the guy with the longest Rush is a WR (Hayes, 35 yards) Look for a Guard to throw a pass to the TE maybe? Anyway, with the mighty Independent Black Knights coming off that game vs the Wolverines and playing a team with struggles offensively, the big question here may be can UTSA’s D stop the Army rush?


The Roadrunners defeated Incarnate Word in Week 1 (35-7) and were humbled by Baylor in Week 2 (63-14), with HC Frank Wilson (15-21 ATS) saying, "The reality was we didn't do anything very well in any aspect of the game, offense, defense or special teams." UTSA has scored in 6 of 8 quarters this season. With Army West Point being so solid on D (15.5 ppg, T-15), the hosts will probably end up with 7, 10, 13 or 14 points here, getting blanked in two Quarters.

Army is 4-0-1 ATS L5 in September while UTSA is 0-5-1 ATS L6 in the month. Covers.com tells me Army is 3-0-1 ATS L4 on Grass while UTSA is 2-9 ATS L11 on Grass, but the game is on FieldTurf, so I am now dizzy and digging. I will show an image of the field. FieldTurf is not Grass to me. The Common Grackle cannot dig into FieldTurf and find a worm or grub. Army is 5-0 ATS L5 on the Road while UTSA is a woeful 2-9-1 ATS L12 Home games.

Army will be glad the weight (Michigan) has been taken off the Bat and that they can swing faster against a weaker—in this case Ratty (6-15-1 ATS L22—opponent, and should score 5 TDs and get a couple of FGs here at the indoor confines of the Alamodome (FieldTurf, Marc Lawrence Playbook; AstroTurf Magic Carpet II, Wikipedia) in San Antonio. This is the first meeting ever between these two teams. Run, rabbit run.


Army 41 UTSA 14

 
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dogball

EOG Dedicated
#23
Kansas can win this if BC doesn’t wake up.
I had FH Under with you guys but bought out 2/3 my bet fortunately on a gut.
What I didn’t do is remove BC ML as an evener in a 3 team baseball parlay
And it’s another reminder of wtf is wrong with me

The baseball looks great. My -1200 ML fav which saved me 20 cents doesn’t
 
#29
Kansas can win this if BC doesn’t wake up.
I had FH Under with you guys but bought out 2/3 my bet fortunately on a gut.
What I didn’t do is remove BC ML as an evener in a 3 team baseball parlay
And it’s another reminder of wtf is wrong with me

The baseball looks great. My -1200 ML fav which saved me 20 cents doesn’t
Get 'em Doggie!

I'm following up what was a decent August, especially the 2nd half, with a horrible September.

Losing first half bet by 20 something points is just par for the course of late......

Destroyed, getting absolutely destroyed!!

BTW my GOD this Wash State defense is bad!! You could literally drive a truck through the holes Houston is running through......

Even penalties coming in bunches can't save this defense! Wow.

Somehow didn't give up any points that first drive despite getting GASHED by that OLine.
 
#30
For example I had both Toronto and Mets played in first five, juicy dogs, both were winning going into the 5th inning.

What happens? They give up 9 runs between them that 1/2 of the inning, even 3-0 lead wasn't enough to push. Neither team could get 3 outs.

Ok, whine fest over, carry on men.


:devilish::mad::devilish::mad:
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#32
Ladbrokes

Will there be a Red Card in Man City/Norwich: YES +450

I think Norwich will get a man sent off either for 2 Yellows or for a Straight Red for bringing down someone from behind - but either side getting one makes this a winner

Updated:
Winkyduck 556-750-39 +11.02 UNITS (Saturday Sept 14: Leicester City +0.5 +112; Man City First Goal in Mins 1-10 +320 & IN 1h: Man City/Norwich City Ov 2 +150 & Ov2.5 +260 & BTTS +290........& Man City to beat Norwich City and BTTS +115 & Man City/Norwich Ov4 +102 & Ov4.5 +158 & Ov5.5 +352 & a Red Card in the Match +450; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
 
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