EOG's Best Bet thread for Sunday, December 1

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#23
Ladbrokes

Sam Allardyce to be the next permanent Watford Manager +600

Updaterd:
Winkyduck 589-803-43 +7.11 UNITS (Sam Allardyce to be the next permanent Watford Manager +600; Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550; (t)RUMP to NOT be the 2020 Repub POTUS Nominee +500)
 
#28
>Posting on Sunday for Saturday spot for Saturday game with 6½’s still available...
Saturday, December 7, 2019—Southeastern Conference Championship Game
118 LSU -6½ -105 (Heritage)


7 pm EST/4 pm PST (CBS)—Perpetually underrated Beatles member George Harrison once said, “If you don't know where you're going, any road will get you there,” so we shall continue to float like a Butterfly and rise at 4 to pee as Mother Nature and Father Time continue to do their thang on us in our Human Bodies and our planet at this particular point in the Space-Time Continuum, December 1-2, 2019 A.D. And we have come here to eog not to win, but not to lose as losing stings 7 times more than winning feels good and can ruminate within a Homo Sapien Sapien's skull for fucking months if the Loss is wrong enough. Sports gamblers know these bitter memories.

The SEC West Division champions, the #1 ranked LSU Tigers, face the SEC East Division champions, the #4 Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game from Mercedes-Benz Stadium (FieldTurf Revolution 360) in Atlanta, Georgia on Saturday night in what seems more like a CFP Semifinal play-in game for the Bulldogs who have been chasing their one Loss (South Carolina) all season and need to upset the Tigers here in an FBS game that may take a long time to finish (57, BetOnline).

Despite Ohio State’s gaudy Scoring Offense, Scoring Defense and recent top-ranking in the CFP Playoffs poll, Heisman Trophy likely Joe Burrow and LSU look like the only team who can possibly beat defending champions Clemson now and with both teams very good on D, points will be hard-earned here although both the Cats and Dawgs can both throw and pass the football. With the line at (LSU minus) -6½ to -7 now, it seems grabbing and laying the 6½ with the better team seems wise as despite the easy ATS cover vs Georgia Tech, Georgia made many mistakes and showed some weaknesses which should be gone by December, including Play Selection.

Georgia QB Jake Fromm has nowhere near the arm, preciseness or zip that Burrow does down in Baton Rouge. And Bulldogs RB D’Andre Swift showed some issues vs the Yellow Jackets and ended up hobbled while Freshman WR George Pickens—who had to sit out the 1H vs GT because off a previous Suspension—will also be Suspended the 1H here also after punching a GT DB 3 times in the helmet and then trying to ram his head into the side of the stadium. George may end up getting a littlle Coal in his stocking in Athens later this month.

LSU won when these two played LY, 36-16 and the Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS the L4 series meetings but Georgia is 5-0 ATS L5 in December, 8-1 ATS L9 Neutral Site games and 18-6 ATS L24 After Getting 450+ Total Yards in Previous Game. The Tigers are 15-7 ATS L22 SEC games, 6-3-1 ATS L12 in December and 4-1 ATS L5 Neutral Site contests, so, LSU could give a rip about Georgia’s statistical shine because it has its own, is playing calmer and smarter, has an unblemished Record with the best QB it's ever had and is much more unlikely to beat itself in this huge Situation.

Sure, Georgia needs this game way more than LSU—the Tigers are in the CFP Semifinals no matter what—but the Bulldogs (+210 M/L, Heritage) aren’t as good as the Tigers (-250 M/L) in the key positions and will have their hands full from the opening kickoff here. I would lay the 6½ now with LSU as this should trickle up some. Joe Burrow is the best QB to come out of the SEC, in a very, very long time.

LSU 34 Georgia 24

 
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#29
>Posting on Sunday for Monday spot for Monday night game...
Monday, December 2—476 Seahawks Moneyline -140 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

8:15 pm EST/5:15 pm PST (ESPN, WatchESPN)—Seattle -2½ (-105, Heritage) and -3 (-110, Bovada) costs a little more than a dollar while buying a ½ may demand -120 juice and buying -1 may be -130, so why not shop for the lowest Seattle Moneyline odds and avoid losing on a potential 1- or 2-point Seahawks victory or maybe pushing in a 3-point Seattle win? That’s three spots (-1 -2 -3) wiped out for Moneyline Offshore prices as low as -134 (Sunday night, Pinnacle). *Contributor's note: It is up to -140 now (5Dimes, Heritage).

This seems prudent with Russell Wilson and Seattle playing so well and at Home in a building (CenturyLink Field) that provides one of the best Homefield advantages in all of professional sports, especially when the homeboys (Seahawks, 2019 MLS champions Sounders) are playing at the highest level. And they are although Seattle is strangely a perfect 6-0 on the Road (5-1 ATS) and 3-2 at Home Sweet Home (1-4 ATS).

Like the Georgia-LSU game, this Monday Night Football game seems to be a matchup between two very good teams with one (GEORGIA, VIKINGS) in a perceived Must-win spot. And as good as young stud Burrow has been for #1 LSU, old dog Wilson (31 years old) has been equally brilliant for the Seahawks, throwing for 24 TDs and just 4 Interception as Seattle has gone 9-2-0 (W4). And with the NFC West-leading 49ers (10-2) losing at Baltimore on Sunday, Seattle can tie SF with 10-2 SU marks (LAR is 7-5).



Minnesota (3-3 on Road) will be playing 2 Time Zones west, meaning a near-10 pm finish for their purple CST Body Clocks. The series Trends show HC Pete Carroll (92-70-7 ATS) and Seattle (6-5 ATS) to be 4-1 ATS L5 vs the Purple People Beaters and 3-0 ATS L3 in the Emerald City.

Seattle has beaten the Vikings 5 straight times (MIN 21-7 SEA, MIN 9-10 SEA—PLAYOFFS, MIN 7-38 SEA, SEA 41-20 MIN, SEA 30-20 MIN) with the Vikings last Win coming back in 2009 when we all thought it would be insane to think that Celebrity Apprentice host Donald Trump could ever really become our fearless leader 10 years later.

So Seattle has held Minnesota to 7, 9 and 7 the L3 and have their vet QB playing his best ever in a game his team needs to win to catch the Niners, with Wild Card fears in their Pacific Northwestern hearts. Gimme the sea birds and strip away the points for cleanliness. The Seahawks went up 8 cents from -134 at Pinnacle to -142 (5:28 pm PST) in the time it took to write and research this pick.

Seahawks 28 Vikings 20
 
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