EOG's Best Bet thread for Thursday, November 14

>Posting on Thursday for Friday spot
Thursday, November 14, 2019

Leicester City to Win English Premier League 40/1 (Paddy Power)
96309—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (25/1)

Three years ago Leicester City FC shocked the sporting world and did a number on mostly Eurporean sportsbooks, winning the English Premier League and cashing in for some Futures Book backers at odds as high as 5,000/1, forever changing the numbers offered up by oddsmakers from that point on, much like back in 1991 when two triple-digit longshots and last place teams the previous season—the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves—shocked everyone by making it to the World Series, changing MLB Futures numbers forever.

The 2nd-place Foxes (8-2-2, 29 GF- 8 GA) have the same Record as 3rd-place Chelsea (6-2-2) but a +11 GD over Tammy Abraham (10 goals; 6/1 to be Top Goalscorer, SuperBook) and the Blues (25/1, SuperBook), also a club worthy of Futures consideration—I have $5 (USD) on my boys CFC as well as $5 (₽) on Leicester City—with an outside shot at the title, riding the wave of 6 straight Premiership Wins under 1st-year Manager and former star Frank Lampard.

But even with Liverpool unbeaten its L46 at Home (36-10-0), nobody is playing better or more inspired Soccer now than is Jamie Vardy (EPL-leading 11 goals; 4/1 to be Top Goalscorer, SuperBook) and Leicester City (Open 250/1, SuperBook; 25/1 now) who behind GK Kasper Schmiechel (31 Saves) have allowed the least Goals in the league while posting the 2nd-highest mark—one more than LFC—thanks in great part to a record-setting 9-0 explosion at Southampton which saw Vardy and Ayoze Pérez both notch Hat Tricks. No Hats are thrown on pitches after a Soccer Hat Trick. Along with those two, James Maddison (4 goals) and Youri Thielemens (3 goals) have produced on the attack for a club averaging 2.42 gpg (and giving up less than a Goal a game) while veteran 31-year-old D Jonny Evans has been absolutely superb.

Besides Liverpool (2/3, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), defending champs Manchester City (5/4, SuperBook) will also have something to say about silverware in what may now be the world’s toughest Soccer league which has the defending European champions (LFC) and runners-up (MCFC) as well as the defending UEFA Europa League champions (CFC) and runners-up (ARS). See them walking hand in hand across the bridge at midnight Heads turning as the lights flashing out Are so bright. Girls on film. Girls On Film.

The thing here is that it’s only November 14. The EPL season ends May 17. That’s 185 days or more than half a year brother. Winter isn’t even here yet and the EPL is usually decided in the late Spring. And the Foxes believe and are just 8 points back with 26 matches to be played in the balance of November, December, January, February, March, April and May. I missed grabbing 50/1 last week and am now forlorn and may have to change my name to Sippee Cup, but think/thought the 25/1 to 40/1 was worth my first Futures Best Bet in the thread. If I lose, I will lose 1 unit in May, so the Pain will be minimal compared to the risk. I also think Liverpool will lose once or maybe even twice at Home at Anfield in 2020 with the Reds tired from playing so much Soccer and guys like F Mo Salah (Ankle) starting to get injured. Betfair also has LCFC at 40/1.

The big fixtures on the schedule for Leicester City are at defending champions Manchester City on the first day of Winter (Sat, Dec 21) followed by a date with league leaders Liverpool at Home at King Power Stadium (Grass) in East Midlands on Boxing Day (Dec 26) as former Reds Manager and current Foxes Head Guy Brendan Rodgers gets a second crack at his old club in a massive game for the Foxes, especially if they lost at the Etihad Stadium 5 days earlier. This LCFC Futures bet will really be tested, and may be lost, from Dec 21-26.

January seems easy while February sees Chelsea visit Filbert Way (Feb 1) with Raheem Sterling and the Citizens invading Leicester two Saturdays later (Sat Feb 21). March sees three winnable fixtures (AV-WAT-B&H) with April not too bad either (EV-CP-ARS-BOURNE). If the Foxes are still alive in the merry, merry month of May, games at Tottenham Hotspur (May 9) and vs Manchester United (May 17) may end up determining silverware and/or UEFA CL (1st-4th) or UEFA EL (5th) qualification. LC already lost at Liverpool, 2-1 on Oct. 5. I’ll serve up an NCAAB BE$T BET$ pick here laying loads o' lumber on Friday for Saturday from the Added games.
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EOG Dedicated
Two teams that are comfortable with pace. Georgetown guards (particularly the little white guy) are not interested in playing D every possession. Also could see both teams bigs, Mike Watkins and the GTown transfer) ,trying to stay out of foul trouble as its key for both teams they get regular minutes. Lamar Stevens (who is an absolute beast) as well will play fugazi D at times.