EOG's Best Bet thread for Thursday, September 12

For Friday, September 13, 2019—107 Washington State -8 -125 (BetOnline)

9:15 pm EDT/6:15 pm PDT (ESPN, WatchESPN, DirecTV 206)—Cougars vs Cougars in this Cat Fight from The Lone Star State. This game opened at (Washington State) -6, and is already up to as high as -9½ early Tuesday with host Houston (1-1 SU/1-1 ATS) headed to being double-digit dogs for this game being played on Friday night at the home of the NFL’s Texans, NRG Stadium (Act Global UBU Speed S5-M; Retractable Roof) in Houston. Oddsmakers see a high-scoring game with the Total 76 (BookMaker, Tuesday, 12:28 pm PT) with #20 Washington State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) such a prolific team (606.0 ypg, #6).

The Trends here reveal that Washington State is 8-1 ATS its L9 in September, 5-1 ATS L6 Non-Conference and 22-6 ATS L28 after giving up 200+ Rushing Yards in its previous game. The Pac-12 Cougars are also 7-0 ATS L7 after racking up 450+ Total yards in their previous game, 14-5 ATS L19 on FieldTurf and 19-7 ATS L26 according to Covers.com but 20-6 ATS L26 in my book with the WSU Opening (and recommended) line vs Northern Colorado at 36½, and winners from 37 to 41, Pushers at 42, and only losers at 42½ and up (The game closed at 43 and was as low as 34 at 5Dimes on Saturday morning.)

AAC West members Houston (394.0 ypg, #75) have a new HC in Dana Holgorsen (1-1 SU/ATS) and he may be experiencing some whiplash on Friday night after facing #4 Oklahoma in Week 1 (OKLA 49 HOU 31) and then FCS side Prairie View A&M in Week 2 (HOU 37 PVAM 17). QB D’Eriq King (3 TDs/INT) and the AAC Cougars (8-5 SU, 5-7 ATS in 2018) are at Tulane in Week 4.

Houston (3 Takeaways) rushes the ball (238.5 ypg) more than it passes (155.5 ypg), average 34 ppg, are 38.% on 3rd Down Conversions and 50% on 4th Down. WSU QB Anthony Gordon (9 TDs/INT/884 yards) and the Cougars (7 Takeaways) pass more than anyone (494) and run fairly well also (112) and gave been proficient on both 3rd (42.9%) and 4th Down (100%). Gordon and WSU are averaging a robust 58.5 ppg—the 5th best mark in FBS behind Maryland (71.0), Penn State (62.0), Baylor (59.5) and Oklahoma (59.5).

And Gordon (6-3, 210) may have more quality WRs than any other QB in NCAAF history in Dezmon Patton, Brandon Arconado, Davontavean Martin, Easop Winston Jr., Travell Harris, Rodrick Fisher, Kassidy Woods and Brandon Gray and an elite RB in Max Borghi and this is a team that could surprise in the now tough PAC-12 which besides the Crimson and Gray also includes #12 Utah, #17 Oregon, #21 Washington, #24, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, ASU and USC.

This is as deep as this proud Power Five conference has been in many years, but with the perennial Alabama—Clemson—Georgia—Oklahoma clog may prohibit the best team from the PAC-12 from making the FBS tournament which anyone with half a Brain can see needs 8 teams. Not 16 or 4. 8. Please wake up before we die.

Some other Trends for my fake Internet friends: Houston is 17-8 L25 in September, 9-3 ATS L12 played on Friday but an appalling 1-11 ATS L12 on FieldTurf. Washington State is 5-1 ATS its L6 Non-Conference games and a profitable 22-6 ATS L28 after allowing 200+ Rushing yards in its previous game. This is strangely the first meeting ever between these two teams.

Washington State 52 Houston 31



TYVM Morgan William!!!

(Must Start) Cody Bellinger to hit a HR +224

Cody has not hit a HR since Aug. 31. He is due. I figure he gets 5 ABs so worth a shot
Posting Thursday for Saturday with 13½’s still on board...

Saturday, September 14—149 Oklahoma State -13½ -110 (Intertops)

3:30 pm EDT/12:30 pm PDT (ESPN2)—This Point Spread just struck me as low when looking at the sheet. At many sportsbooks here in crumbling Las Vegas where there is no limit on Dumb and Blue Meanies are out 24/7, it would be easier to find a Hooker, a Hookah or a Hamburger before 1 pm on a Monday than an NFL and/or NCAAF sheet (betting menu). I kid you not. The reason to me? Fear and Laziness. The smaller sportsbooks all wait for the big boys to set a number and then let it settle. They want minimal (early) exposure.

To me, these operators have punk in their panties and prefer being Bean Counters answering to the Suits than Gamblers like the old days when guys like Gene Mayday let it fly at Little Caesars. That’s my theory. That being said, the most dependable dudes for Sheets and lines and reliable times and good numbers (and Futures odds) is the Las Vegas SuperBook. No one else is close.

My original point to y’all outside of Las Vegas is that you think it would be easy to find an NFL and/or NCAAF sheet at a sportsbook by Noon on a fucking Monday in 2019 but it’s not, bruahjb23dbnjernfjrmfmf. My bad. Anger. I miss the old Sunday nights with the Don Best book and The Stardust Line with our boy here John Kelly, Dave Cokin, Lee Peete, Seat Williams, Donny Bader and others providing the Opening betting line from the Stardust. That shit was Radio gold and helped me see the board clearer and learn to plan ahead. I faded Temple (NCAAF) like Popeye ate Spinach in those days and remember the betting board in the Stardust sportsbook actually had people moving block numbers. It was a trip. Guys like Richard Saber and Scotty Schettler know.

When I wrote for Gaming Today, Saber’s desk was directly right of mine. I gave him a Wheaties box with Roberto Clemente on it which he proudly displayed. I miss Saber. That dude loves his hometown of Steubenville, Ohio. And Dogs. You could talk about anything in Sports Gambling with him, he had great stories, bet both Chalks and Underdogs, loves the Horses and he actually took Picks he liked. I think Saber gets up with the Birds. He looks at all Sports as betting possibilities. He and Schettler are Wise Owls. And they know how weird the Bet Board was. Like the numbers changing at Wrigley Field with a person up in the fucking board. No Trans-Lux betting boards required Human Beans in them. The Digital Age kids will never be able to comprehend this. A Man works in the betting board. Never mind.

Oklahoma State is 10-2 SU L12 series meetings vs Tulsa (2-0 ATS in 2019) and 3-0 ATS L3—winning 59-24 in 2017 (OKLA ST -19½) and 59-33 back in 2011 (OKLA ST -11½)—but the Cowboys are 1-3 ATS the L4 at Skelly Field at Chapman Stadium (FieldTurf Revolution CoolPlay) where the Weather Forecast (TWC) this Saturday is for Partly Cloudy conditions with a High of 91° with 63% Humidity and ENE Winds around 5 mph. So, Hot and Humid and with this being an afternoon game and these primarily teenage kids wearing football pads, it could be a tad uncomfortable for some, especially in the 2H.

HC Phil Montgomery (27-22-1 ATS) and his Golden Hurricane (3-8 ATS L4 years as HD) are led by QB Zach Smith (37/55, 436, 7.9 ypp, 2 TDs, INT), RB Shamari Brooks and WRs Sam Crawford Jr and Keylon Stokes. For Oklahoma State, WR Tylan Wallace has been at another level the first 2 games for OSU, catching 10 passes—5 for TDs—and amassing 272 yards (27.2 ypc ).

Expect Wallace to score 2 TDs vs Tulsa in this softer Non-Conference spot. WR CJ Moon has 3 catches—2 of them for TDs—for 75 yards (25.0 ypc) while Braylon Johnson has just 1 catch, but took it 69 yards to the house (69.0 ypc). Expect QB Sanders to connect with his deep corps, but with RB Chuba Hubbard (34/265/4 TDs) averaging 7.8 ypc a pop, the Tulsa D (Tied #55, 22.0 ppg) will be put to the test. The Golden Hurricane lost to Michigan State, 28-7 in Week 1 and then defeated San Jose Staté, 34-16 Week 2.

This one could be a low-scoring game if the Tulsa D can corral the Cowpoke, but that is much easier written on a keyboard than done on the turf. This is a Big 12 vs AAC game and, to me, Oklahoma St will end up dictating the Pace and not Tulsa, a good thing for Over players if that ends up happening. OSU has played 2 Overs (88 and 70 points) while Tulsa has played 2 Unders (35 and 50).

Anyway, here on a beautiful Thursday afternoon in Las Vegas (Lost Wages), there are still several 13½’s (Pinnacle, Heritage, BetOnline, Sportsbetting.ag) out there Offshore, so I may post this when done below my Washington State Pick and use it for Friday’s slot. And the Lord said I shall fade FC Cincinnati on Saturday. Get it? Got it? Good. I know. A jumble of words. It will make sense later. JK keeps his numbers and records clean like people should do. Au revoir. I have 1,111 more words to write.

Oklahoma State 51 Tulsa 27

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TYVM Morgan William!!!

(Must Start) Cody Bellinger to hit a HR +224

Cody has not hit a HR since Aug. 31. He is due. I figure he gets 5 ABs so worth a shot
I got so much going on Saturday...............................

Winkyduck 556-750-39 +11.02 UNITS (Saturday Sept 14: Leicester City +0.5 +112; Man City First Goal in Mins 1-10 +320 & IN 1h: Man City/Norwich City Ov 2 +150 & Ov2.5 +260 & BTTS +290........& Man City to beat Norwich City and BTTS +115 & Man City/Norwich Ov4 +102 & Ov4.5 +158 & Ov5.5 +352; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)