EOG's Best Bet thread for Tuesday, September 10

For Saturday, September 14, 2019—140 Wyoming -24½ -120 (5Dimes)

5 pm EDT/2 pm PDT (ESPN3)—Wyoming (6-6 SU, 5-6 ATS in 2018) welcomes NCAAF rugrat Idaho (0-2 SU) to War Memorial Stadium (Desso Challenge Pro) in Laramie on Saturday for this FBS-FCS scrimmage which should see the Cowboys saddle up the Vandals very quickly with the visitors so inept on the defensive side of the ball. Wyoming (2-0 SU/ATS) pulled off a nice upset in Week 1, tipping over the Apple Cart of Big 12 school Missouri, 37-31 (MIZZOU -7½) as it ruined the debut of Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant as the little MWC broke off the Big 12 a lil sumpin proper. There is no Spell Check in The Afterlife.

When you look at the Cowboys Offensive leaders, the numbers look like an 0-2 team and not one proudly sitting at 2-0. Wyoming QB Sean Chambers leads the team both in Passing (195 yards) and Rushing (170), but the leading Receiver (Gunner Gentry) has just 44 yards and 1 Reception and the most Receptions by a player after 2 games is 4. BALLS ARE BORN TO BE THROWN AND CODDLED Then, why in the name of Buffalo Bill is Wyoming at 2-0 SU and 2-0 ATS?

Because it is Tied for #4 in FBS with a robust +2.50 TO Margin thanks to 3 Fumble Recoveries and 3 Picks in its first 2 games despite having the 119th ranked Total Defense (490.7 ypg). Expecting a +2/+3 TO result here at Home vs the Vandals makes sense from a handicapping POV. We are handicapping here, aren’t we? Free-thinking? Not being little Lemmings? I think I may be voting for Deez Nuts in 2020. I shall make up stickers that say “Nuts in 2020” and plaster them all over my old Toyota, covering the silver Duct Tape where I can.

Speaking of Toyotas—and I’m not a Car Dude—but both my Best Friend and my Brother (and myself) have had these Toyota things and they seem to be built with the fine quality of a Tank and a Tiger. They last forever. After having a silver Toyota truck with over 200,000 miles on it and trading it in for a classic purple Cadillac, Eric—who was shot in the ankle on October 1 at the Route 91 Harvest Festival by some scumbag treating humans like fish in a barrel—came over this Spring sporting a new silver (of course) Toyota truck, starting a new 200,000- to 300,000-mile Life Haul for him with minimal problems from his Vehicle. Fuck that Cadddy, brah. Who needs an ass the size of Kim Kardashian in this Traffic? I also handicap Life. And I am here to tell you that in my experience, Toyota makes one helluva enduring product. Toyotas are a lot like Bristlecone Pine Trees and Clint Eastwood. Toyotas are at that elite Pink Floyd—Mozart—Prince level.

So, I expect FBS side Wyoming, off to a great start for 6th-year HC Craig Bohl (33-26-1 ATS), to pick on FCS side Idaho, who loves to throw the football, by getting some 1st Half TOs, turning them into easy TDs, and sitting on like a 28-7 lead at Halftime. The Vandals rank #113 (of #116 teams) in FCS in Scoring Defense, allowing 55.0 ppg after allowing Penn State to score 79 in Week 1 and Central Washington to get 31 in Week 2. Yes, Central Washington. So, scoring Points for the seemingly Offensively challenged Cowboys shouldn’t be too big of a problem here in the Cowboy State, the 10th largest state in the USA by land area but the 2nd least sparse one by population. Breathing Clean Air, listening to Mother Nature and still being able to think must be a wonderful thing.

Expect Wyoming to eclipse the 50-point mark here in its highest-scoring Offensive game since playing UNLV here in Sin City back in 2016 (UNLV 69 WYO 66) as Chambers and RB Xazavian Valladay (25/149/6.0 ypc) run wild and WRs Austin Conway and Raghib Ismail Jr also bust loose for TDs on the quick Desso Challenge Pro playing surface in Laramie where the Weather Forecast is calling for Mostly Sunny but Windy (WSW 21 mph) conditions, a High of 75°—or, sheer perfect conditions for a late-Summer NCAAF game with 17% Precipitation in that forecast (The Weather Channel). Cite your sources kids. Break 'em off something proper Winky. You're the greatest, man. You know the beauty of Soccer, both on the pitch and at the betting window. Keep bustin' brother.

LB Logan Wilson (24 Tackles), S Alijah Halliburton (22 Tackles, Fumble Recovery), S Braden Smith (5 Tackles, INT) and the Wyoming Defense should also shine, allowing 17 or less points here and probably getting a pick-6 and creating as many Points themselves as the Idaho Offense can muster in Laramie where Crowbar & Grill (202 S. 2nd St.) makes a pretty good Pizza.

Wyoming needed a Tyler Hall pick-6 to rally to beat Texas State in Week 2, 23-14 (WYO -7½) as the Cowboys won their 6th straight, the team’s longest Winning Streak since 1998. It will definitely reach 7 here with a game at Tulsa up next in Week 4 (WYO 0-3 ATS L3). Expect the Cowpoke O to play a better 1H here at Home vs a weak FCS opponent. Wyoming is 3-0 ATS the L3 vs Idaho, beating them 42-10 as 28½-point chalks in Laramie in their last meeting.

Idaho always allows too many points, and here on the Road at Wyoming, an FBS side feeling good and off to a strong start before MWC play kicks off, are simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. A team allowing 79 points two times in 2 years probably could have allowed 90 points or more if not for the mercy of their opponents (FRESNO ST in 2018, PSU in 2019). I see a blowout, decided early (1Q-2Q) in this Added Added game.

Wyoming 51 Idaho 17

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TYVM Morgan William!!!

Man City/Norwich City 1h Ov2.5 +260 (I looked at Ov3.5 +750 but if Ov3.5 hits that means at least 4 goals and that means Ov5.5 for the game should also cash so -for now - I'll take $5-less for this play. Ov1.5 is -125 so we are being told they expect at least 2 goals scored in 1h so hopefully I get a 3rd, too.....and I think I will).

Winkyduck 556-749-39 +12.02 UNITS (Saturday Sept 14: Leicester City +0.5 +112; Man City First Goal in Mins 1-10 +320 & Man City/Norwich City 1h Ov 2 +150 & Ov2.5 +260 & Man City to beat Norwich City and BTTS +115 & Man City/Norwich Ov4 +102 & Ov4.5 +158 & Ov5.5 +352; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)