EOG's Best Bet thread for Wednesday, December 4

#6
>Posting on Wednesday for Thursday spot for Saturday game...
Saturday, December 7, 2019—Remembering Pearl Harbor
634 North Dakota State -28 -120 (5Dimes) 🦋


3:30 pm EST/12:30 pm PST (ESPN3)—The Division I FCS Championship Playoffs enter their 2nd round of play this weekend with defending champions North Dakota State (12-0 SU) welcoming Southland Conference champs Nicholls (9-4) to the Fargodome (Multi-surface) in Fargo, ND on Saturday afternoon for an Added board game which sees the unbeaten Bison opening up as big 28-point chalks Offshore. Nicholls (W5) advanced by beating North Dakota, 24-6 in Round 1 last Saturday at John L. Guidry Stadium in Thibodaux, LA as RB Julien Gums rushed for 172 yards for the Colonels.

The top-ranked and top-seeded Bison—who received all 26 votes in the FCS Coaches Poll—and won the Missouri Valley Football Conference again are led by QB Trey Lance, RB Ty Brooks and WR Christian Watson. North Dakota State has gone 33 straight games without losing SU, and won 52-10 in this spot last year vs Montana State in a game the Bison led 38-3 at Halftime. Wink-wink, nod-nod. This also seems like it’s a very good 1H bet (ND St -17½ -120, 5Dimes) and worth betting on for those with access. And if I were a Hammer and not a Human Bean, my head would hurt from bashing? The 2020 FCS Championship Game is on Saturday, Jan. 11 in Frisco, TX.

This Regular Season, NDS (W12) has rolled opponents by an average of 27.7 ppg, outscoring their foes, 480-147 (40.0 PF-12.3 PA) and the most Points the Bison have allowed is 22 (@ DEL). The confident and precisionlike hosts could be covering ATS by Halftime here with a projected 35-7, 38-7 or 42-10 score after the first 30 minutes of play inside, where it’s always 72°, on the friendly and familiar Turf. I have been very good here ATS in NCAAF (in 2019), but shitty or below average in the Added Games I think. I will add it all up some day when I am not researching and writing. Accounting always takes a ton of Time.


Sports handicapping can be so simple if you weigh everything out properly and take into account there will be a Final Score. There’s always a Final Score. When I first met JK at The Stardust back in 1812—he was back of the far right side of the Race Book and was betting on Harness Racing with an organized pile of Track sheets at his seat in the sportsbook—there were Final Scores. Don’t think so much or worry about what Harry Numbnuts is doing. The individual’s decisions (Yes-No, Side or Total or M/L, $ Amount) are always going to be the most important things in an event, especially since you control all of those Sports Gambling elements. Anyway, I shall get off my silly soapbox. There’ a little Bug on my screen and a big Cat at my Feet and one must buy the Buick...

With a good Defense an an opponent more like a goldfish being tossed into the Green and Yellow piranha tank that is the Fargodome, Nicholls (The Team You Never Bet On Formerly Known As Nicholls State) will likely be overmatched and it will show from the start and an expected 14-0 NDS score should be seen some time in 1Q. The Bison should end up with around 8 TDs and 2 FGs which is 62 points on my couch while the Colonels should get an obligatory “Hope” TD and “settle” for 3 at some point in a game they lose by about 50. NDS has allowed 7-14-21-17-16-0-14-3-16-22-7-10 and scored over 50 three times (57, 57, 56) and over 40 thrice (48, 47, 45) also and could top the 60 mark here—and eclipse the Total of 52—in a game that finally matters. Stanford Steve must see my Logic here. He gets it.

Brooks could run wild here and if this team could beat Northern Iowa by 31, NDS could name its score here with the 1H maybe making more sense? We've had more Rain in LV in 2019 than in many years. The first year I met JK, it rained like spiddle, maybe twice in 365 days. Now we seem to be at the mercy of Mother Nature with heavier winds, grayer skies and more Climate experts on the World Wide Whatthefuckhavewedone. Umbrellas can't shield naiveté. Prepare to be wet, cold and possibly self-righteous for some time. The dogs are mad.

North Dakota State 62 Nicholls 10

 

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winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#22
Pinny

PL action (both games start at 11:30A)

Southampton/Norwich U3 -114
***Tottenham PICK -106***
(A past BB)
South 2-1 and a PUSH so.............

873 UC Riverside +4 -102 (PInny)


Winkyduck 590-804-44 +8.43 UNITS (Sam Allardyce to be the next permanent Watford Manager +600; Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550; (t)RUMP to NOT be the 2020 Repub POTUS Nominee +500)
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#24
South 2-1 and a PUSH so.............

873 UC Riverside +4 -102 (PInny)


Winkyduck 590-804-44 +8.43 UNITS (Sam Allardyce to be the next permanent Watford Manager +600; Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550; (t)RUMP to NOT be the 2020 Repub POTUS Nominee +500)

Winkyduck 590-805-44 +7.41 UNITS (Sam Allardyce to be the next permanent Watford Manager +600; Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550; (t)RUMP to NOT be the 2020 Repub POTUS Nominee +500)
 
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