Good luck.
EOG's Best Bet thread for Wednesday, July 15
- Thread starter John Kelly
- Start date
winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
I have 2 BB plays today on the 10A Bournemouth/Man City game Pinny Lines)
Bournemouth +2.5 -119 (Now -122)
Under 3.5 +108 (Now +110...........The WA Toal is 3.75 -110 on Under)
I looooooooooooooooooooove this game
Bournemouth is fighting to stay up. Every point/goal makes a massive difference. A 1-0 loss here would not be the worst thing for Bournemouth. A 3-0/4-0 (or more) loss would be crushing to them. I fully expect them to "Park the Bus" and play 10 in the box. Their goal will be to leave with a 0-0 Draw. The field will look tilted towards the Bournemouth end when Man City has the ball and I expect City to have about 75% possession. If not more.
I not only do not expect Bournemouth to score I am not sure they will even get a SOG.
Man City has a FA Cup game on Saturday and their manager has made no secret of the fact he really wants to win it. I fully expect him to sit a decent number of regulars to rest for Saturday's game. Once the lineups come out and all see this there will be a lot of Bournemouth money and the total will come down.
I took Under 3.5 instead of 3.75 because I don't see more than 3 goals scored in this game and I think we see 2 at most.
I was gonna play City TT Un3 -104 but since I have Un3.5 I sorta have the same thing since Bournemouth is not gonna score. If, by chance, they do score - and score first, there is a 0% chance this game goes Over 3.5. I like 1h Under 1.5 +100 since I see 1 goal, at most, scored and if we get ZERO it won't shock me. A 1/4-unit play on Bournemouth +1668 to win outright is not a bad play, either.
Pay attention to live in game betting because you will see the total dropping down massively during the game. At halftime we might see a Total of 2 priced evenly both ways if the game plays out as I think it might. If so I couldn't play OVER since 2 at most would be scored in 2h.
Man City to win 1-0 pays +1200 and +1200 means about an 8% chance of happening. i think there is a 20-25% chance which is -300 or -400 so a lot value in a 1-0 final. 0-0 at +3400 probably doesn't cash but it happens in this situation more than the 3%-ish it should hit
Expect a very low scoring, hard fought, defensive battle here with Bournemouth wanting it that way.
Bournemouth +2.5 -119 (Now -122)
Under 3.5 +108 (Now +110...........The WA Toal is 3.75 -110 on Under)
I looooooooooooooooooooove this game
Bournemouth is fighting to stay up. Every point/goal makes a massive difference. A 1-0 loss here would not be the worst thing for Bournemouth. A 3-0/4-0 (or more) loss would be crushing to them. I fully expect them to "Park the Bus" and play 10 in the box. Their goal will be to leave with a 0-0 Draw. The field will look tilted towards the Bournemouth end when Man City has the ball and I expect City to have about 75% possession. If not more.
I not only do not expect Bournemouth to score I am not sure they will even get a SOG.
Man City has a FA Cup game on Saturday and their manager has made no secret of the fact he really wants to win it. I fully expect him to sit a decent number of regulars to rest for Saturday's game. Once the lineups come out and all see this there will be a lot of Bournemouth money and the total will come down.
I took Under 3.5 instead of 3.75 because I don't see more than 3 goals scored in this game and I think we see 2 at most.
I was gonna play City TT Un3 -104 but since I have Un3.5 I sorta have the same thing since Bournemouth is not gonna score. If, by chance, they do score - and score first, there is a 0% chance this game goes Over 3.5. I like 1h Under 1.5 +100 since I see 1 goal, at most, scored and if we get ZERO it won't shock me. A 1/4-unit play on Bournemouth +1668 to win outright is not a bad play, either.
Pay attention to live in game betting because you will see the total dropping down massively during the game. At halftime we might see a Total of 2 priced evenly both ways if the game plays out as I think it might. If so I couldn't play OVER since 2 at most would be scored in 2h.
Man City to win 1-0 pays +1200 and +1200 means about an 8% chance of happening. i think there is a 20-25% chance which is -300 or -400 so a lot value in a 1-0 final. 0-0 at +3400 probably doesn't cash but it happens in this situation more than the 3%-ish it should hit
Expect a very low scoring, hard fought, defensive battle here with Bournemouth wanting it that way.
KevinStott11
EOG Veteran
>Posting Wednesday for Thursday spot for Thursday match...
Thursday, July 16, 2020—Spanish La Liga Soccer
108534 Real Madrid -1, -1½ -103 (BetOnline)
4 pm EDT/1 pm PDT (beIN SPORTS, beIN SPORTS CONNECT, beIN SPORTS en Español, Fanatiz USA)—Real Madrid CF (26-8-3, 66 GF-22 GA, 83 points) will host 5th-place Villarreal (17-6-13, 58 GF-47 GA) at Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Grass) in Madrid, Spain on Thursday in Matchweek 37 of Spain’s La Liga as Los Blancos try to stay ahead of Lionel Messi and 2nd-place Barcelona (79 points) in the Spanish Primera División with the Catalans hosting Osasuna (BAR -556, OSA +1,200, DRAW +580, 3, 3½o -111, BetOnline). Alejandro Hernandez will be the Referee in Madrid.
Offshore sportsbook currently has Karim Benzema (18 goals) and Real Madrid as -222 Favorites ($26.26 to win $11.83, BetOnline) in the Three-way market with visitors Villarreal +560 with a Draw at +340 and the Total at 3u -119. The Goal Line market sees the Madridistas -1, -1½ at -103 ($20.60 to win $20, BetOnline) with the Yellow Submarine +1, +1½ at +104. Madrid have W9 straight, with GK Thibaut Courtois registering 6 Clean Sheets and outscoring opponent 18-3 in the process as they grabbed the league lead after the COVID-19 break.
When these two clubs played at Villarreal in Matchweek 3 on Sept 1, Villarreal tied 10-man Madrid as Gerard Moreno (12’) opened the scoring for the hosts before Gareth Bale evened it up right before Halftime (45+1). Moi Gomez put the Yellow Submarine up 2-1 at the 71-minute mark, but Bale tied it up again at 86’’ before seeing a second Yellow Card in 2 minutes (Tripping, 90+2’) for Roughing at 90+4 and getting Das Boot when it didn’t matter. But that 1 point Bale helped Madrid earn late may end up mattering.
Looking at the series history between these two we see that Casemiro (4 goals), Toni Kroos, Eden Hazard (1 goal) and Real Madrid are 24-13-4 (88 GF-40 GA) vs Villareal (LWLWW) in all competitions and 13-5-1 vs them at Home (48 GF-20 GA). These two teams have played three 2-2 Draws in the L4 meetings, but Madrid is 9-7-1 the L17 against Villarreal with the Both Teams To Score (Yes) Prop 6-1 the L7 meetings.
The Yellow Submarine sunk the Madridistas 1-0 in Matchweek 8 of the 2017/18 campaign in Madrid when CR7 was still a member of Los Blancos as Pablo Fornals connected with his left foot at 87’ for the game’s only goal. So, Villarreal wins one, ties some (2) and loses many (6) in the L8 trips to the Spanish capital.
Although there will be no Fans there rooting Madrid on, manager Zinedine Zidane will have enough young and old talent social distancing in the stands with well-paid guys like the aforementioned Bale, James Rodríguez and possibly even Luka Modrić after the way he has been playing. I watch.
On the Injury front, Marcelo (Muscle) while Nacho (Stomach) and Mariano Díaz (Overload) are both listed as Questionable for the homeboys. F Carlos Bacca (Thigh), GK Mariano Barbosa (Suspended), Ramiro Guerra (Knee) and Ramiro Mori (Achilles) are all listed as out for Villarreal according to FlashScore so GK Sergio Asenjo, Moreno (16 goals), Paco Alcácer (4 goals) and Santi Carzola (6 goals) will have to see what they can create against a club who is as stingy as they come when it comes to allowing Goals.
With young guns Isco, Federico Valverde, Marco Asensio, Vinícius Júnior, Casemiro, Rodrygo, Ferland Mendy, Mariano, Luka Jovic and Lucas Vázquez all at his disposal, putting out a great Starting XI and having 5 Subs who can score/defend to turn to gives Zidane the upper hand here. Also, Villarreal should be bummed out after a lucrative UCL berth seems lost after a Loss to Real Sociedad last game.
The biggest thing about this handicap and Pick-Bets is the actual Situation as this is a must-Win for club heartbeat Sergio Ramos (10 goals) and Real Madrid with evil empire Barça still breathing down their necks with 2 games to go and a potential elimination at Manchester City awaiting in the UEFA Champions League (MC 2-1 aggregate), Fear will be omnipresent in the heads of Madrid and Fear is often a good thing. Fear keeps baby Gazelles from getting eaten by Tigers and Fear (of Death) keeps wise people wearing masks during this worldwide Pandemic. Embrace Fear. RM can do themselves a Matchweek 38 favor by winning here and relieving future Stress it will need to come back vs the Cityzens in Leg 2 of their UCL series.
Thursday, July 16, 2020—Spanish La Liga Soccer
108534 Real Madrid -1, -1½ -103 (BetOnline)
4 pm EDT/1 pm PDT (beIN SPORTS, beIN SPORTS CONNECT, beIN SPORTS en Español, Fanatiz USA)—Real Madrid CF (26-8-3, 66 GF-22 GA, 83 points) will host 5th-place Villarreal (17-6-13, 58 GF-47 GA) at Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Grass) in Madrid, Spain on Thursday in Matchweek 37 of Spain’s La Liga as Los Blancos try to stay ahead of Lionel Messi and 2nd-place Barcelona (79 points) in the Spanish Primera División with the Catalans hosting Osasuna (BAR -556, OSA +1,200, DRAW +580, 3, 3½o -111, BetOnline). Alejandro Hernandez will be the Referee in Madrid.
Offshore sportsbook currently has Karim Benzema (18 goals) and Real Madrid as -222 Favorites ($26.26 to win $11.83, BetOnline) in the Three-way market with visitors Villarreal +560 with a Draw at +340 and the Total at 3u -119. The Goal Line market sees the Madridistas -1, -1½ at -103 ($20.60 to win $20, BetOnline) with the Yellow Submarine +1, +1½ at +104. Madrid have W9 straight, with GK Thibaut Courtois registering 6 Clean Sheets and outscoring opponent 18-3 in the process as they grabbed the league lead after the COVID-19 break.
The Yellow Submarine sunk the Madridistas 1-0 in Matchweek 8 of the 2017/18 campaign in Madrid when CR7 was still a member of Los Blancos as Pablo Fornals connected with his left foot at 87’ for the game’s only goal. So, Villarreal wins one, ties some (2) and loses many (6) in the L8 trips to the Spanish capital.
On the Injury front, Marcelo (Muscle) while Nacho (Stomach) and Mariano Díaz (Overload) are both listed as Questionable for the homeboys. F Carlos Bacca (Thigh), GK Mariano Barbosa (Suspended), Ramiro Guerra (Knee) and Ramiro Mori (Achilles) are all listed as out for Villarreal according to FlashScore so GK Sergio Asenjo, Moreno (16 goals), Paco Alcácer (4 goals) and Santi Carzola (6 goals) will have to see what they can create against a club who is as stingy as they come when it comes to allowing Goals.
The biggest thing about this handicap and Pick-Bets is the actual Situation as this is a must-Win for club heartbeat Sergio Ramos (10 goals) and Real Madrid with evil empire Barça still breathing down their necks with 2 games to go and a potential elimination at Manchester City awaiting in the UEFA Champions League (MC 2-1 aggregate), Fear will be omnipresent in the heads of Madrid and Fear is often a good thing. Fear keeps baby Gazelles from getting eaten by Tigers and Fear (of Death) keeps wise people wearing masks during this worldwide Pandemic. Embrace Fear. RM can do themselves a Matchweek 38 favor by winning here and relieving future Stress it will need to come back vs the Cityzens in Leg 2 of their UCL series.
Real Madrid CF 2½ ✺ Villarreal CF ½
Today's Bets Bets: FK Bodø/Glimt (Norway), Brentford (Championship), Fukuoma SoftBank Hawks (NPB).
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winkyduck
TYVM Morgan William!!!
Nice to have a game go pretty much the way you think it might. UGH for adding Newcastle at the last minute but this result (barely) gets me
Winkyduck 653-876-45 +5.04 UNITS (Mauricio Pochettino to be next Permanent Newcastle Manager +110; Bournemouth +125 to be Relegated AND +450 To Stay Up; Man City to win the Champions League +410; Vegas Knights to win the West +550; Gretchen Whitmer to be Democratic Veep Nominee: +1500 AND Val Demings +400; #IQ45 to NOT be the 2020 RepubliCON POTUS Nominee +500; 2 Units on Will Jacoby Brissett be Colts starter for Week 1 - NO +100; Next MLB Game to be Played August 1st or Sooner: YES -110 AND NO +125; Dodgers +200 to win the NL; Patriots RSW Ov8.5 -110 AND RSW Un9.5 -110; Jets RSW U6.5 +105; Bills to win the AFC East +275 AND Patriots +175; Will George W Bush endorse Joe Biden for POTUS: YES +350; Will Condoleezza Rice endorse Joe Biden +185; Joe Biden to be elected POTUS +120; Democrat wins Michigan in 2020 POTUS Election -180 & Wisconsin -130 & Florida +135 AND Georgia +200; #IQ45 to lose EC and Popular Vote +110..........#IQ45 to WIN EC but lose Popular Vote +200; Dems control the House/Repubs the Senate +150 AND Dems control the House AND the Senate +130; Next Justice to leave the SCOTUS: Clarence Thomas +400; Tua's 2020 Passing Yards: UNDER 3200 -120)
TonyMar
EOG Dedicated