EOG's Best Bet thread for Wednesday, November 6

One more cutout bet for FISA drop. Must satisfy all 3.

*no warning
*1330 EST drop

Calling it down to 60 seconds. If it's close enough to 1330 where not clear either way, you gotta give it to me.

>Posting Wednesday for Thursday spot for Thursday match...
Thursday, November 7, 2019—224562 VfL Wolfsburg -170 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

3 pm EST/12 pm PST (ESPN3)—Fußball-Bundesliga side VfL Wolfsburg faces Belgian side KAA Gent on Thursday in Leg 2 of their UEFA Europa League Group I encounter from Volkswagen Arena in Wolfsburg, Germany. The SuperBook—impossible for locals to penetrate these days with SEMA in town—has the visitors from Germany’s top tier as -170 Favorites with Belgian side KAA Gent +400 underdogs and the Draw priced at +320 in the Three-way market with the Total currently a 2½o -130. VfL Wolfsburg -1 is priced at +156 (Monday) at Intertops on the Handicap line.

When these two Group I co-leaders met last Matchday on Oct. 24, the Wolves—owned by Volkswagen—jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first 24 minutes on goals by Wout Weghorst and João Victor before Gent pulled one back before Half as Roman Yarmechuk tallied . The hosts would tie it late, at the 90-minute mark on a Yarmechuk header to keep Wolfsburg from leading the group (7-4), while the Buffalos stayed on pace to advance to the KO Stage in the tournament with 2 games left. Gent had 57% of the Time of Possession.

Lifetime, these two have only played three times, with Wolfsburg going 2-1-0 (W-D-L) and outscoring Gent 6-4 with the two sides meeting in the Round of 16 of the 2015/16 UEFA Champions League (WOLF 1-0 GENT, GENT 2-3 WOLF). Here, the Site (WOLF W4 UEFA in a row Home) is the biggest thing to think about in the handicap, with the crowd, Referees Subjective Leans and Expectations all factors along with the reality that Wolfsburg is driven by the thought it should have won the last meeting.

With Sven Kums and Gent (3 straight Draws Away in UEFA EL) having won just 1 time in Group stage play in the EL (1-4-4) and Wolfsburg eager to get back to its winning ways—the Wolves went 13 unbeaten until RB Leipzig ousted the from the German Cup on Oct 30 and have L2 straight in Fußball-Bundesliga—expect 6-foot-6 Striker Weghorst, Victor and GK Pavao Pervan to again be really tested by Jonathan David, Laurent Depoitre and KAA Gent here, but for the host Die Wolfe to somehow prevail by a goal, possibly with some controversy. There always seems to be Controversy in games these days. The Referee for the match will be Massimiliano Irrati.

VfL Wolfsburg 2 KAA Gent 1

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>Posting Wednesday for Friday spot for Saturday game with 42’s still in Offshore market...

Saturday, November 9, 2019—130 Ohio State -42 -118 (Bookmaker)

12 pm EST/9 am PST (FOX, DirecTV 5)—This handicap is purely based on trying to arrive at a fairly close predicted Final Score, knowing that #3 Ohio State will be laying a significant amount of lumber (-42 -118, Bookmaker, JustBet, Weds, 12 noon PST) vs Maryland in their Big Ten game set for this Saturday at Ohio Stadium (FieldTurf) in Columbus, Ohio, with 35+21 and 7+0 = the 56-7 score below. And +49 is +7 better than the -42’s still out there on Hump Day. I have provided a pick every day since the Sun came up this Summer, but I believe I may have only predicted one Final Score exactly right. Oh well. Right now (Wed Noon), OSU are from 42- to 44-point chalks.

With the Turtles still a recent addition to the conference, these two have only played 5 times since 1992 with the ßuckeyes 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS in those meetings and 1-1 ATS at the Horseshoe. All 5 of the games in this new series have gone Over the Total, with 103 points scored last year in a 52-51 OSU Win (OSU -14) after the ßuckeyes rolled 62-14 at Home in 2017. The Total for this Saturday is 63½-64, and the hosts could possibly pop a 60+ in a spot like this.

The Ohio State have W7 straight ATS and have W10 of 11 against the betting number dating back to last season with only a Week 1 ATS Loss to FAU in a 45-21 triumph (OSU -27½), hurting bettor’s feelings as JK would say. Since that opening game at The Shoe, Chase Young and the The Scarlet and Grey Defense have allowed 0-10-5-7-10-3-7, so Maryland (14-28-10-7 L4 games) could get shutout, a 3, maybe 7 and 10 if they are really lucky. Give a hoot, don't pollute.

ßuckeyes QB Justin Fields (Probable) and 1st-year HC Ryan Day (7-1 ATS) were ranked #1 in the first CFP Rankings ESPN showed last night between the NCAAB Duke-Kansas and Kentucky-Michigan State games and this team plays two cupcakes (MARY, RUT) before Ohio State gets to the meat on the bone on their Big Ten schedule—vs PENN ST on Nov 23 and at Michigan on Nov 30—with a likely Big Ten Championship Game at Lucas Oil Stadium on Dec 7 making sure that the ßuckeyes earn their trip to the FBS Big Dance which is only a Final Four but really should have 8 teams. Progress is slow here in Elbow Village and when the fucking SEMA show is here, it’s darn right scary with so much traffic and gridlock, ßubba.

Anyway, for those who may be backing WR Chris Olave and Ohio State, I am posting this on Wednesday afternoon with two 42’s out there Offshore at ßookmaker and Justßet. My game vision is that OSU will be up 28-0 or 35-7 maybe at Half and will then score 3 or 4 2nd Half TDs and be mad on D because they gave up a 1H TD? The 42 scared me all week until researching and thinking what will likely transpire. Numbers are weird. The W7 ATS and 0-10-5-7-10-3-7 (Points Allowed) stick out the most from this distance. Good Luck Earthlings. We will need it.

Ohio State 56 Maryland 7

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TYVM Morgan William!!!

This weekend in the PL - this makes Play #4 on a card I LOOOOOOOVE! I am trying to make you people money.

Saturday Nov 9

Bournemouth PICK +104

Fabulous spot here for the better team to get a win - or not lose

Winkyduck 583-783-43 +21.51 UNITS (This weekend in the PL: Friday Nov 8: Norwich PICK +101, Saturday Nov 9: Bournemouth PICK +104 and Crystal Palace +1.5 -114, Sunday Nov. 10: Liverpool PICK +101; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400; Vegas Knights to win the West +550)