EOG's Best Bet thread for Wednesday, September 11

Wednesday, September 11, 2019—Never Forget

209866 NYCFC +122 (Pinnacle)

7 pm EDT/4 pm PDT (ESPN3, YES, TSN4/5, MLS LIVE on ESPN+, MLS Direct Kick, Cox Las Vegas Channel 656)—New York City Football Club (15-8-5, 52 GF-35 GA) will welcome Toronto FC (11-10-8, 49 GF-46 GA) to Yankee Stadium (Grass) on Wednesday night for this Major League Soccer Week 28 fixture from New York City on the 18-year anniversary of 9/11. We still here.

Oddsmakers have the host Bronx Blues as +125 Favorites with TFC at +185 and a Draw at +270 (3o -140). For those who might want to play this safer, Intertops has NYCFC priced at -167 on the Draw-No Bet line. Six of the L7 times these two have met in MLS play, there has been at least 1 Goal at Halftime and the Reds have shut out (and walloped) NYCFC four times over that span—two 4-0 Wins, including the last meeting, in Canada and a 5-0 plastering and 2-0 humbling of the Pigeons in the 2015/16 MLS Playoffs.

Does Cox (Communications) really still think they are my Friend in The Digital Age. Fuck ‘em with a warm Curling Iron, Bubba. Friends don’t let Assholes call Friends and then charge them Money (and tax them) for it. At least not in the traditional context of the word. Friends should protect Friends? Hello? Cox? We used to have Customer Service reps and Cox trucks here in Sin City, but those jobs have been farmed out to independent contractors and agents in states like Nebraska and Texas and Arizona and Missouri so you never really feel close to someone who can help you, or may actually be employed by Cox. Some friend.

This Pick is be primarily Art—although the 1 Home Loss provides a healthy dose of Science (Math)—hinged on the Form and Summer play of these two clubs. NYCFC (LWWWWW) sits proudly in 1st place in the Eastern Conference while TFC (LDDWDW) sits in 6th and is still fighting to stay in Playoff range, so, this game means more to TFC than NYCFC (2-3-1, 12 GF-14 GA lifetime at Home vs TFC in MLS).

But Site weighs extremely heavy in my mind when handicapping Soccer, as Winky the Duck knows well, and NYCFC is 9-4-1 in The House That Ruth Built (only 1 Loss). Maybe they’ll bet Soccer someday Winky? If I read Previews, I’d like mine because they dig deep, ask absolutely nothing from the readers but to enjoy. They seem scatterbrained—that’s unintentionally intentional—but often provide W’s for the thread readers. I read nothing before. Goal? We win.

With Héber (14 Goals) having a breakout season, Maxi Morález (6 Goals), Valentín Castellanos (10 Goals), Jesús Medina (3 Goals), Ismael Tajouri-Shradi (7 Goals), Alexander Ring (4 Goals) and Alexandru Mitrita (7 Goals), the tams has more scoring options than ecent seasons and GK Sean Johnson is continuing to get better with NYCFC tied with RLS for allowing the least Goals in the league (35; LAFC has allowed 32). You mess with NYC? You mess with all of us.

NYCFC (9-3 as favorites) has been in a groove of late, and getting the team you want at Home at +125 seems like value but the biggest things to know here are leading scorer Heber (Injury) and Morález (Suspended) are both out, so Gary Mackay-Steven (1 Goal) may start up top on the right wing alongside Mitrita and Castellanos in HC Domènec Torrent’s 4-3-4 Tactical Formation. So whoever bet the earliest at the opening 3¼u-120 may have got the best of it in the Totals market with those two out for this game. Maybe, Nothing Else Matters? I know nothing.

Despite no Heber and Maxi, I will be betting this one on the $10 (Red) level with TFC having allowed 46 Goals and Michael Bradley and the Reds having three of their D's missing the contest with problems in Justin Morrow (Quad Strain), Richie Laryea (International Duty) and Eriq Zavaleta (Suspended). Ev'rybody's talking about Bagism, Shagism, Dragism, Madism, Ragism, Tagism, This-ism, That-ism, is-m, is-m, is-m. All we are saying is give peas a chance. Christopher Penso will be the Referee for this kickfest.

NYCFC 2 Toronto FC 1

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TYVM Morgan William!!!

Man City/Norwich City BTTS in 1h +290

I am so freaking "Pot Committed" on this game it isn't funny. I am expecting an Orgy of goals in this game and for my sake - I better get it!

Winkyduck 556-749-39 +12.02 UNITS (Saturday Sept 14: Leicester City +0.5 +112; Man City First Goal in Mins 1-10 +320 & IN 1h: Man City/Norwich City Ov 2 +150 & Ov2.5 +260 & BTTS +290........& Man City to beat Norwich City and BTTS +115 & Man City/Norwich Ov4 +102 & Ov4.5 +158 & Ov5.5 +352; Robert Kraft to be suspended 5-8 weeks +125; Raiders RSW U6 -125 and Julio Jones Most Reg Season Rec Yards +750 and Dolphins to have NFL's Worst Record +200; Sheffield United to finish DFL in PL +300; Brighton to be Relegated +185; Sunderland to Win League One +400)
I watched the line move from even to -118. If the public agrees I suppose that's a good sign.

[MLB] Cards -1.5 -118 Heritage
Hudson has been owning Colorado of late, and the Cards have a chance at the playoffs, adding motivation for the team to play hard daily this month & next.