European death rates

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#1
If you take Italy, Spain, France, United Kingdom and Netherlands, you have 355,766 cases at the moment. A total of 37,225 deaths.

Death rate? That's over 10%
 
#3
Death rate increase is going up faster than new case increases in the major Euro natons. That's thankfully beginning the descent of the virus in Europe, but the end of it means a lot more deaths as those who got sick weeks ago who don't show signs of improvement in a week's time of ICU care don't seem to have much of a shot and eventually are dying.
 

Crazy Pete

EOG Senior Member
#4
Asymptomatic cases in Italy are well over 50%.
Many of the rest have mild to flu like symptoms.
Almost all of those groups have not been tested, so they don’t show up in the stats as being infected.

The number of REPORTED cases is basically the tip of the iceberg.
That’s good news & bad news: bad news that it’s already infected a lot more people than we think. Good news is that the denominator for the REAL Covid fatality rate is much higher than what’s being used.
Italy is more vulnerable because of age, customs, smoking rate, temperature in Covid’s sweet spot last month, and any Italian who dies with Covid gets listed as dying from Covid, even though 98-99% of Italians who died had multiple symptoms.
So the 10% fatality rate uses a bloated numerator & very unrealistically low denominator.
There’s been many coronaviruses (SARS was one). Realistically, most are in 0.5-1% range. Covid will be in that range imo.
Covid fatality rate is bad. But in the real world, its waaaaay less than 10%.
Concern, yes.
Hysteria, no.
 
#5
At some point, hopefully soon, they'll start doing random antibody tests. They will tell us approx how many people have ever been infected. then we'll know the death rate. Right now it's just an educated guess.

We may find out that 25% of New Yorker's have already had it , 10% somewhere else, etc. Then projections of what's to come will be far more accurate.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#6
Asymptomatic cases in Italy are well over 50%.
Many of the rest have mild to flu like symptoms.
Almost all of those groups have not been tested, so they don’t show up in the stats as being infected.

The number of REPORTED cases is basically the tip of the iceberg.
That’s good news & bad news: bad news that it’s already infected a lot more people than we think. Good news is that the denominator for the REAL Covid fatality rate is much higher than what’s being used.
Italy is more vulnerable because of age, customs, smoking rate, temperature in Covid’s sweet spot last month, and any Italian who dies with Covid gets listed as dying from Covid, even though 98-99% of Italians who died had multiple symptoms.
So the 10% fatality rate uses a bloated numerator & very unrealistically low denominator.
There’s been many coronaviruses (SARS was one). Realistically, most are in 0.5-1% range. Covid will be in that range imo.
Covid fatality rate is bad. But in the real world, its waaaaay less than 10%.
Concern, yes.
Hysteria, no.
It's not just Italy. Near similar death rates in Spain, France, the UK and Netherlands. That had gone under the radar. Our death rate has gone from 1% up to over 2.5%, despite much more testing available, and a much bigger denominator. That wasn't expected.
 

Biff41

EOG Veteran
#7
Is there a web cite that show infection and mortality numbers broken down by days of the week. Europe looks like they are slowing down but it is hard to tell.
 
#8
It's not just Italy. Near similar death rates in Spain, France, the UK and Netherlands. That had gone under the radar. Our death rate has gone from 1% up to over 2.5%, despite much more testing available, and a much bigger denominator. That wasn't expected.
Those numbers dont mean shit, every nation has different testing standards, that makes all the difference.

For instance where I am they only test people that go to the hospital, so by definition they are sicker.
 
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