Explain the current odds for President

louisvillekid

louisvillekid

EOG Dedicated
If i look at current odds at a couple books, most have Trump around -175 to win over Harris, with her around +140
Now, there's also odds for others to win. Not sure why those are even still listed. There's still odds for Michelle Obama, like 3rd betting choice. She's never even hinted she was wanting to be president.
There's also odds for all kinds of Senators and Governors , but i don't see RFK Jr on the board now. ?????


Ok, with that said.

There are 6 "swing" states listed. All but one (MI) have Trump favored to win each of those states.

but at same time, there are US Senate races going on in most of those swing states.

Voting for a US Pres, a US senator and a State Gov, are all statewide races. You can't gerrymander that. Yes, you can disenfranchise and change laws/rules and make it harder for certain people to vote. But those elections are still statewide.

Sooooo....... Trump is favored about -170 to win AZ , but the US senate race in AZ has Dem favored at -200
Trump is around -200 to win NV, but the US Senate race is -165 Dem to win.
Trump is about -135 to win PA, but the US senate race is -400 for Dem to win - MINUS 400 HUNDRED. ???
Trump is around -125 to win WI, but the senate race is -300 for Dem to win. 1/3 fav

Also, because of the voting rules or laws that GA changed in like 2017 or 2018, saying it would make voting easier for elderly and ease of getting registered and blah blah blah - after Joe edged out a win in 2020, the state legislators went back to the drawing board and have rewrote the rules/laws. So now Trump is a -275 fav to win GA, yet he lost in 2020. And now oddsmakers expect for sure he'll win by placing him at -275 fav. ?????


Another odd one is NC, there's odds for Gov race, but not for Pres, and i guess no US senate race is this yr - which most states don't have this yr. Like here in KY there's no Gov race, or neither senate is up for reelection. But the odds that Dem will win Gov in NC is -250 , yet most predictions show NC going Trump.

Are there really that many people in these states that would go and vote, and on same ballot, would vote trump for Pres, but for a Dem senator, or gov?

I guess it's possible. KY has for quite a while - since i think Clinton's 2nd term - went GOP for Pres, and for US senators, but the Gov is almost always a coinflip, and Dems edge it out sometimes.

I just think it's odd seeing Trump favored in some of the key swing states, but then Dems are favored to win the US Senate races in those states, or the Gov.
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
louisvillekid said:
If i look at current odds at a couple books, most have Trump around -175 to win over Harris, with her around +140
Now, there's also odds for others to win. Not sure why those are even still listed. There's still odds for Michelle Obama, like 3rd betting choice. She's never even hinted she was wanting to be president.
There's also odds for all kinds of Senators and Governors , but i don't see RFK Jr on the board now. ?????


Ok, with that said.

There are 6 "swing" states listed. All but one (MI) have Trump favored to win each of those states.

but at same time, there are US Senate races going on in most of those swing states.

Voting for a US Pres, a US senator and a State Gov, are all statewide races. You can't gerrymander that. Yes, you can disenfranchise and change laws/rules and make it harder for certain people to vote. But those elections are still statewide.

Sooooo....... Trump is favored about -170 to win AZ , but the US senate race in AZ has Dem favored at -200
Trump is around -200 to win NV, but the US Senate race is -165 Dem to win.
Trump is about -135 to win PA, but the US senate race is -400 for Dem to win - MINUS 400 HUNDRED. ???
Trump is around -125 to win WI, but the senate race is -300 for Dem to win. 1/3 fav

Also, because of the voting rules or laws that GA changed in like 2017 or 2018, saying it would make voting easier for elderly and ease of getting registered and blah blah blah - after Joe edged out a win in 2020, the state legislators went back to the drawing board and have rewrote the rules/laws. So now Trump is a -275 fav to win GA, yet he lost in 2020. And now oddsmakers expect for sure he'll win by placing him at -275 fav. ?????


Another odd one is NC, there's odds for Gov race, but not for Pres, and i guess no US senate race is this yr - which most states don't have this yr. Like here in KY there's no Gov race, or neither senate is up for reelection. But the odds that Dem will win Gov in NC is -250 , yet most predictions show NC going Trump.

Are there really that many people in these states that would go and vote, and on same ballot, would vote trump for Pres, but for a Dem senator, or gov?

I guess it's possible. KY has for quite a while - since i think Clinton's 2nd term - went GOP for Pres, and for US senators, but the Gov is almost always a coinflip, and Dems edge it out sometimes.

I just think it's odd seeing Trump favored in some of the key swing states, but then Dems are favored to win the US Senate races in those states, or the Gov.
Click to expand...
The polls in many of those swing senate races show larger % undecided than in the presidential race, in most of those states it would be expected that whomever wins the presidential race will go the same color for the senate. there are exceptions for devisive candidates but not that often, also most of the dem senate candidates are incumbents who should be ahead, if they're polling well below 50% that's a bad sign.

Today's numbers show trump is still the huge favorite - a MN poll had it at harris +3, that's terrible.

1722026958328.png
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
NC governor - 28% undecideds, is that possible - no, people just dont want to say how they're voting. WIll a trump voter vote for Stein? Would a harris voter vote for Robinson? Not many.

1722027168971.png
 
mr merlin

mr merlin

EOG Master
Another way to look at senate races is will they outperform or underperform Trump? for example last time In AZ Kari lake ran just about 1 pt worse than trump(for governor) right now it look like trump will win AZ, if he wins by more than maybe 2 it's a very good sign for Lake, now look at PA - casey has been in for a long time(and he's ahead), the R will likely under perform trump by several points, if trump squeeks by casey will almost certainly win.
 
railbird

railbird

EOG Master
mr merlin said:
The polls in many of those swing senate races show larger % undecided than in the presidential race, in most of those states it would be expected that whomever wins the presidential race will go the same color for the senate. there are exceptions for devisive candidates but not that often, also most of the dem senate candidates are incumbents who should be ahead, if they're polling well below 50% that's a bad sign.

Today's numbers show trump is still the huge favorite - a MN poll had it at harris +3, that's terrible.

View attachment 7471456
Click to expand...
no way is mich T3 and Wiscy EV. Wiscy is more trump than mich
 
howid

howid

EOG Dedicated
This is not Joe Biden. These people are all fake. They’re playing games right in front of your faces. This is fucking bullshit!

Jim Carrey with a mask …
 
louisvillekid

louisvillekid

EOG Dedicated
https://x.com/StrictlyChristo/status/1817277696554262575

[tweet]1817277696554262575[/tweet]

Arghh, i forgot how to embed a tweet.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Georgia State Board of Elections now has a MAGA majority and is planning a coup in November if Trump doesn’t win. <a href="https://t.co/bnQISsWYHA">pic.twitter.com/bnQISsWYHA</a></p>&mdash; StrictlyKamala  🇺🇦🌻 (@StrictlyChristo) <a href="
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1817277696554262575
">July 27, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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