Eye on the Markets: Coronavirus Stocks/Investments thread

#81
Very unlikely there will be windows in non gaming locations. Only places they might show up are in states with no casinos, but there will be a lot of limits on it.
That’s a damn shame if it doesn’t happen. So many states already have bars with OTB it makes no sense to not offer the same for sports.
 
#82
How low does the VIX need to fall before it is buyable? Still in mid 30s. We know that it can both rise, and fall, in a hurry. Below 20, have to think about buying it. I still believe there's at least one more leg downward.
I thought about doing the same but I think you have to pay close to a 1% fee(.89) and that is per day! not a year. You hold it for 10 days for example your out 8.9% which you can't overcome.
 
#83
Here are some recent bits from different sources talking about what's going on with USO.

https://old.nasdaq.com/article/us-o...tracts-expiring-late-2020-2021-20200427-00743

https://old.nasdaq.com/article/forget-buying-uso-stock-buy-this-oil-stock-instead-cm1317743 (linked for the discussion of USO, not necessarily the suggestion of COP)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/b...or-short-sellers-2020-04-23?mod=mw_latestnews (also has links to other articles re: specifics re: USO)

These days I don't do commodities in general, and I am not a seasoned trader in oil as a commodity in particular. When I do trade or invest in the energy space these days it's in energy stocks rather than the commodity (which is just a general observation over time, not a current trading recommendation.)

Moreover, these exotic exchange-traded products (ETPs) can be treacherous to trade long -- and to short them as well -- and can suffer termination events, which is a distinct possibility with USO from what I've scanned over on the fly. I'm not in the nannystate camp that says that ETPs of this nature shouldn't be available to retail investors. But if you're not a seasoned oil trader and further don't have a deep knowledge base in how USO in particular trades under different market conditions, "it's not a bad day when you don't lose money," whether long or short, even though -- if your rookie timing proved to be impeccable (or, well, lucky) -- there possibly was a lot of money to be made quickly. At least absent effective stops/limits, there's also a lot of money to be lost quickly, too; and the inside players in these markets are pushing the daily trading range through price points with a lot of pending stops every day just to kick outsiders out of trades and pocket your change.

It's like that old bit about if you can't pick out the mark at the poker table then, well, you're the mark. For me personally, I wouldn't just jump into either long or short USO trades because I've seen oil in the headlines recently thinking that I can just jump into that space with no extensive time in the cockpit with air under my butt there and profit. Much like in sports betting, making plays based on common knowledge that is already is known to everyone and their brother -- including the linemaker and the sharp actors driving the line moves -- generally is not a good way to get an edge.

Well, and I'm assuming this one's tongue-in-cheek:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020...k-mortgage-my-house-and-used-proceeds-buy-uso

Or maybe he also ingested some of those hydroxychloroquine tablets meant for his aquarium and followed it up with a 50 cc injection of Lysol.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#84
As for the ETF the USO, I saw one options site had a poll on whether or not the USO would still be trading by the end of 2020. About 40% felt it wouldn't. Would anyone be shocked if oil fell dangerously low during May options expiration?
 
#89
Unemployment spikes to 13%, 25 million people laid off, country shut down, bankruptcy and defa potential limitless and the market don't blink.

Stimulus straight to equities again. Greedy win, common investor never learns and everyone winds up busto.

Pass.
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#91
Heisenberg, good call on Draft Kings. I sold some puts on it. I can pocket some premium, or if it goes down, I have the stock put to me. I did see it made the unusual options activity (buying) the other day.
 
#92
Heisenberg, good call on Draft Kings. I sold some puts on it. I can pocket some premium, or if it goes down, I have the stock put to me. I did see it made the unusual options activity (buying) the other day.
Thanks valuist. Your input is always appreciated

I found it encouraging to see Disney owns a substantial amount of DKNG shares. The value there obviously lies with Disney owning ESPN.
 
Last edited:

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#93
Thanks valuist. Your input is always appreciated

I found it encouraging to see Disney owns a substantial amount of DKNG shares. The value there obviously lies with Disney owning ESPN.
Right now, I think I'd rather have Draft Kings than Disney. Sports will be back up and running at some point, empty stadiums or not. But those theme parks aren't going to be drawing many people for awhile.
 
#94
The inevitable push now to restrict individual investor use of ETFs, following the USO fluctuations:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-etfs-safe-for-retail-investors-2020-05-07?mod=mw_latestnews

I full well agree that investors should know what they're trading and the risks of how they're trading it.

Particularly after XIV -- a short volatility exchange traded product -- suffered a "termination event" a short while back, I have to execute -- and periodically renew -- an acknowledgment that I am aware of the risks, etc., etc., etc. in order to trade volatility-related products. And there are prominent red-and-yellow-letter cautions that spin up every time I do.

Not sure if more than that is appropriate.

Seems that we think that we can end mortality, risk of investment loss, and just plain buttfuck stupidity simply by decree.

If you lose money because you don't understand what you're trading, well . . . .

Now if they want to protect retail investors, they might (a) go after the market manipulators who during the brief period after the regular market hours close on the day XIV imploded who wildly manipulated the volatility market during an interval when many retail investors were temporarily precluded from trading in the after hours session; and (b) otherwise track down and prosecute the people who spread false rumors on social media precisely to cause brief multi-billion or more moves in markets (well, over and above government officials using social media to move the markets, and even then . . . .).
 

Valuist

EOG Dedicated
#95
I'm watching Peloton (PTON). Everything is great and rosy in their world right now. Everyone stuck buried inside their houses and gyms still all shut down. They just reported absolute blowout earnings. But the gyms aren't going to stay shut down forever. And $55/month to rent a bike? No other equipment? That's crazy high. I pay about $50/month for my gym and it has everything. Free weights, machines, elipticals, treadmills, stairmasters and stationary bikes. $55/month for a bike rental will be hard for many to justify when unemployment is still in double digits by end of the year. This will be a great short. Just not yet.
 
#96
For anyone interested in purchasing DKNG it might not be a bad idea to wait until their earnings report is released on May 25. I’m expecting a temporary dip during that time and probably going to buy more if that happens.
 
#97
This is a fairly apt discussion of what's coming down the pike for dividend-focused investing generally, although I'll still be looking on the long side if there's another big leg down for the bluest of the blue chip dividend payers (such as JNJ) at generational low fire-sale prices. (On the next leg down that is, right now I'm pruning out some earlier not-quite-as-great longs at a profit to raise some more cash in case we have another down leg, holding onto my best longs bought at fire-sale prices.)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...ronavirus-market-2020-05-08?mod=mw_latestnews

I especially like the second Will Rogers quote, most of us have heard the first one a lot, but I liked this second, obviously sarcastic, one:

“Buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”

The more things change, the more . . ., I guess.

I can attest to the difficulty of being retired with a bankroll that is not sufficient just to get by on at least relatively "safe" income investments. You necessarily have to go up the risk ladder to try and make ends meet, and that is an inherently treacherous thing to have to do to pay the bills. I knew that going in, but I had other considerations that outweighed the known risk that I was not yet really financially ready to retire.

The adult choices that we're given are not easy ones like "would you like to chill on a beach in Fiji or instead work at a suck job that is grinding you into oblivion?" No, we're often left with choosing the least-worst -- not an in truth best -- option among multiple unpalatable options.

Anyway, just trying to cheer folks up with the Rogers quote, lol.
 
Last edited:
It's funny how the rationale for bailing out Main St now was that we bailed out Wall St in the financial crisis from a decade ago. Two wrongs don't make a right. Neither bailout should've happened.
 
This is a fairly apt discussion of what's coming down the pike for dividend-focused investing generally, although I'll still be looking on the long side if there's another big leg down for the bluest of the blue chip dividend payers (such as JNJ) at generational low fire-sale prices. (On the next leg down that is, right now I'm pruning out some earlier not-quite-as-great longs at a profit to raise some more cash in case we have another down leg, holding onto my best longs bought at fire-sale prices.)

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...ronavirus-market-2020-05-08?mod=mw_latestnews

I especially like the second Will Rogers quote, most of us have heard the first one a lot, but I liked this second, obviously sarcastic, one:

“Buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don’t go up, don’t buy it.”

The more things change, the more . . ., I guess.

I can attest to the difficulty of being retired with a bankroll that is not sufficient just to get by on at least relatively "safe" income investments. You necessarily have to go up the risk ladder to try and make ends meet, and that is an inherently treacherous thing to have to do to pay the bills. I knew that going in, but I had other considerations that outweighed the known risk that I was not yet really financially ready to retire.

The adult choices that we're given are not easy ones like "would you like to chill on a beach in Fiji or instead work at a suck job that is grinding you into oblivion?" No, we're often left with choosing the least-worst -- not an in truth best -- option among multiple unpalatable options.

Anyway, just trying to cheer folks up with the Rogers quote, lol.
You should retire on that beach in Fiji or wherever your heart desires. Pay less than half for your lifestyle costs than you would almost anywhere in the US.
 
Market getting hit again and Draft Kings still up a bit on day. Have to think traders are bullish on sports this year, although those Snell comments make me wonder how many other players in MLB feel the same way and will refuse to play. A starting pitcher figures to get about 33 starts in a full season. If they play 80-82, Snell would be looking at no more than 17 regular season starts. A half season would net Snell $3.5 million and he's worried about dying. Never mind the fact that almost nobody under 40, without other major medical problems, has died from Covid19, we have a professional athlete under 30 who thinks HE'S the outlier.
 
Market getting hit again and Draft Kings still up a bit on day. Have to think traders are bullish on sports this year, although those Snell comments make me wonder how many other players in MLB feel the same way and will refuse to play. A starting pitcher figures to get about 33 starts in a full season. If they play 80-82, Snell would be looking at no more than 17 regular season starts. A half season would net Snell $3.5 million and he's worried about dying. Never mind the fact that almost nobody under 40, without other major medical problems, has died from Covid19, we have a professional athlete under 30 who thinks HE'S the outlier.
He's got a family to feed...or was that latrell sprewell?
 
Market getting hit again and Draft Kings still up a bit on day. Have to think traders are bullish on sports this year, although those Snell comments make me wonder how many other players in MLB feel the same way and will refuse to play. A starting pitcher figures to get about 33 starts in a full season. If they play 80-82, Snell would be looking at no more than 17 regular season starts. A half season would net Snell $3.5 million and he's worried about dying. Never mind the fact that almost nobody under 40, without other major medical problems, has died from Covid19, we have a professional athlete under 30 who thinks HE'S the outlier.
Even if sports allow fans in the stadiums when they resume, attendance is going to be dismal. Money spent going to games is going to replaced with wagering on those games.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Idk if anyone can make money from this, but there is an aluminum can shortage here in Michigan. Stores haven’t been able to accept cans and bottles (deposit law), they use them to make the new cans. Very good chance there will be no pop or beer in cans for the Memorial Day weekend.
 
Idk if anyone can make money from this, but there is an aluminum can shortage here in Michigan. Stores haven’t been able to accept cans and bottles (deposit law), they use them to make the new cans. Very good chance there will be no pop or beer in cans for the Memorial Day weekend.
Oh, it's been tried. A couple of guys from NY.....Kramer and Newman.

 
Idk if anyone can make money from this, but there is an aluminum can shortage here in Michigan. Stores haven’t been able to accept cans and bottles (deposit law), they use them to make the new cans. Very good chance there will be no pop or beer in cans for the Memorial Day weekend.
Here none of that stuff was ever shut down.
 
Top